美股三大指数上周整体变幅很小，但是我们却不能说不牛，因为三大指数都在上周走出新高，罗素指数也在日收盘走出了超越8月底的前高。总体来说本周可能依然持续这样的高位盘整状态。 虽然我们一直期望有盘整，但是依然没有看到股市有一个像样盘整的迹象。

一，美股大盘

1，资金继续流入。本周股票基金继续流进超过10B ,过去三周流进股市的资金超过恶劣35B ,这样的资金流入支撑了股市没有大的下跌空间。

2，美国经济发展继续得到验证，通胀没有出现危险信号，失业率继续维持低位，美元继续维系强势。

3，本周是月期权到期日，历史数据分析来看，11月的月期权周保持小涨的记录，特别是标普更是在过去的50年统计中超过75的记录是在期权周上涨的。

4，技术分析显示本周 可能依然是猪市，虽然整体进入超买区域，但是并没有立即的下跌风险。股票期权市场的 PUT/CALL 比率也给出同样的结论。Andrew Kassen对CBOE市场的股票期权做了一个追踪，发现当股票期权P/C 比例达到或者超过2：1（200）之后，股市就会进入小幅的运动区域，在第一个200出现之后会继续上升，然后进入盘整。按这个推论标普应该先到达2050之上才会出现回调。第一个回调的幅度应该在13MA支撑上（ISEE的图蓝色和橙色线是我加的）

道琼和标普走势类似，纳斯达克却看起来有很强的上升愿望。

罗素指数我也倾向向上突破。因为罗素已经两周十字星，但是日线已经完成了超越9月高度的新高，那么下一步应该在周线向上突破。

为了防备下跌的风险，我们会买进VIX的CALL作为对冲保护。

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http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTuPEgcmge6fAW33DPNeib26ogXV3vq94NK6xmha1PGHYu9VuGvCfVyYA/640?tp=webp

二，板块

纳斯达克如果上升，那么领涨的可能板块是半导体。 INTC走势强劲，半导体指数向上倾向明显。板块内的股票如INTC，AVGO，ASML，ADI都在技术上处于上升趋势，是短期交易的不错选项。http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTq0vjgEjjrvgclDa2Ksg6De58Tia13CAwsHMN2SicgN7kjy4CIBc8MWqw/640?tp=webp

http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTuBruygMyp9edRic1lcZBRD17iamFTwpbV9Ks9c2ibs7qjUM09ucf0R3fg/640?tp=webp

http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTuOChWOZ33zPdXY5NNlaq9m3TV90DEzq3SbHSxDJicpB90K1WJsdfniaA/640?tp=webp

三，个股追踪

CSIQ的季报符合我们的预测，我们反复研究依然认为它的季报是非常的出色，超出了所有的分析师预期。从季报我们还可以看出公司每瓦制造成本继续下降，继续发展下游业务，下游不断增长/下降的成本每瓦将可能意味着利润率的长期增长。我也喜欢这家公司如何扩大产能，到2015年，由于产能扩张将意味着向前发展，以及更大的收入/利润。所以我曾经在大跌的时候说过我的观点，反应过度！现在我依然保持这个观点。当然作为太阳能整体板块因为能源价格的下降和美股双反等原因，股价已经受到了大幅打压，本季度全部太阳呢公司都在季报后继续受到打压也是受到能源整体的前景的影响。 太阳能将会有一些公司遭受更加沉重的打击在油价继续下跌的情况下。但是我认为CSIQ一定是一个最后胜利者。而且在油价稳定能源反弹的情况下，CSIQ的股价迅速反弹也不是不可能的。从技术上来说，如果是一个头肩顶的话那么这个下跌太SHARP了，小的双底的可能性更高一些。 如果是小的双底那么颈线就是34附近。

有消息说ＡＰＥＣ等正在讨论对太阳能产品将采取最低限价而不是增加关税来防止倾销，如果是这样的话那么太阳能板块可能会迎来一波上涨。但是无论如何，ＣＳＩＱ只有７的ＰＥ,有着全行业最好的资产负债表和全面的世界布局，我依然坚持CSIQ可以持有。http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTwpE4oJMtGVxR4fTe41iby3QhF9W77OKBPJpzXrjLbEHyUbGLAMorqBw/640?tp=webp

GILD 本周受到多方的质疑药物价格和竞争公司的药品竞争的可能性，但是我们仔细研究之后没有发现中期内可能的竞争对象出现，而药价过高的担忧总是过一段就提起一次，虽然有一天这个价格一定会降低，但是目前还看不到降价的可能时间表，因此我们继续维持我们的持有观点。技术上长期走势如果跌破97我们会考虑趋势的可能改变http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/ySnEZApNOV1J6tMXemxSDtqaQ5rfUqRTXF7Wia4nMeD3pHYCZMgm9eMakt7oCo2yK3PZic6VdPnEZJL7XeEt0Ciag/640?tp=webp