大空头里的Michael Burry是个典型的怪胎，不擅社交，一个眼睛基本瞎了，天天之研究数据，挖公司股票。

但是正是这样的一个怪胎，看到了美国房地产泡沫，并且成为了第一个大举做空美国房地产的人。

Michael Burry管理的基金：Scion，成立于2000年，成立后的前三年，平均跑赢市场61%。自2000年至2008年，Scion基金的总回报率是489.34%（除去管理费用和其他费用）。同期标普500仅仅只上涨了10%，跑赢大盘479.34%。

接下来就为大家介绍Michael Burry 具体的投资策略，希望大家能从中获益。

Strategy

My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companieswhen they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up abit. Management of my portfolio as a whole is just as important to me as stockpicking, and if I can do both well, I know I'll be successful.

策略

我的策略其实并不复杂——在某些公司快要穷途末路的时候买入然后再在他们情况有所改善的时候卖掉。管理投资组合就跟挑选股票一样重要，要是我能兼顾这两样，我知道我肯定会成功。

Weapon of choice:research

My weapon of choice as a stock picker is research; it's critical for me tounderstand a company's value before laying down a dime. I really had no choicein this matter, for when I first happened upon the writings of Benjamin Graham,I felt as if I was born to play the role of value investor. All my stockpicking is 100% based on the concept of a margin of safety, as introduced tothe world in the book "Security Analysis," which Graham co-authoredwith David Dodd. By now I have my own version of their techniques, but the netis that I want to protect my downside to prevent permanent loss of capital.Specific, known catalysts are not necessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough.

选股的不二法宝：研究

我用来挑选股票的选股的不二法宝就是研究。在要让我投钱之前了解这个公司值多少钱对我来说相当重要。在这件事上我别无选择，因为当我第一次接触到格雷厄姆时我就知道我天生就该是个价值投资者。我所有选股决策百分百都是依据安全边际的概念，就是在格雷厄姆和大卫多德合著的那本《证券分析》中第一次被提出的概念。现在我自己的技巧虽然已经独具一格，但是纯粹就是为了避免永久性的资金损失。要特别强调的一点是，已知的催化剂在分析的时候没啥考虑的必要；透明的，令人吃惊的价值就够了。

I care little about the level of the general market andput few restrictions on potential investments. They can be large-cap stocks,small cap, mid cap, micro cap, tech or non-tech. It doesn't matter. If I canfind value in it, it becomes a candidate for the portfolio. It strikes me asridiculous to put limits on my possibilities. I have found, however, that ingeneral the market delights in throwing babies out with the bathwater. So Ifind out of favor industries a particularly fertile ground for best of breedshares at steep discounts.

我的投资标的没有什么条条框框。他们可以是大盘股，可以是小盘股，可以是大公司，也可以是小公司，可以是科技公司也可以是非科技公司，是什么公司都没关系。如果我能找到这个公司内在的价值，它就成了我投资组合里的候选人。任何要我限制我自己无限可能的想法都是很荒谬的。我发现，市场大盘喜欢良莠不分不管好坏一起扔，因此一些不招人喜欢的产业股份算是以跳楼价出售的能孕育出最优组合的肥沃土地了。

How do I determine the discount? I usually focus on freecash flow and enterprise value (market capitalization less cash plus debt). Iwill screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprisevalue/EBITDA ratio, though the ratio I am willing to accept tends to vary withthe industry and its position in the economic cycle. If a stock passes thisloose screen, I'll then look harder to determine a more specific price andvalue for the company. When I do this I take into account off-balance sheetitems and true free cash flow. I tend to ignore price-earnings ratios. Returnon equity is deceptive and dangerous. I prefer minimal debt, and am careful toadjust book value to a realistic number.

我怎么来计算哪个股票是否便宜呢？我通常关注的是自由现金流和企业价值（市值减去现金再加上负债）。我会通过判断一个公司的EV/EBITDA的比率来筛选股票，尽管这些比率会随产业的不同和其在经济链中的位置而变化。如果一只股票轻松通过筛选，我会更仔细的研究公司具体的数值。当我计算具体数值是，我会考虑资产负债表以外的因素和真实的现金流。我一般不会太看重PE的数值。ROE也是一个具有迷惑性有潜在风险的比率。我更喜欢看最小负债，同时每次将账面价值调整到实际数字的时候我总是很小心。

I also invest in rare birds， asset plays and, to a lesser extent, arbitrageopportunities and companies selling at less than twoJthirds of net value (networking capital less liabilities). I'll happily mix in the types of companiesfavored by Warren Buffett JJ those with a sustainable competitive advantage, asdemonstrated by longstanding and stable high returns on invested capital JJ if theybecome available at good prices. These can include technology companies, if Ican understand them. But again, all of these sorts of investments are rarebirds. When found, they are deserving of longer holding periods.

我也会投资另类的稀缺标的。比如隐蔽资产型投资（Asset plays）,套利机会，以及以不到净值（净流动资金减去负债）三分之二的价钱出售的公司。我很喜欢将沃伦巴菲特看好的一些不同类型的公司（例如那些具有长期竞争优势的和成长起来之后高回报率的公司）纳入我自己的组合，这些公可能会有科技公司（当然前提是我能看懂），但是我再强调一遍，所有的这类型的投资必须是稀缺标的。一旦发掘出来，这些都是值得长期持有的股票。

Beyond stock picking

Successful portfolio management transcends stock picking and requires theanswer to several essential questions: What is the optimum number of stocks tohold? When to buy? When to sell? Should one pay attention to diversificationamong industries and cyclicals vs. nonJcyclicals? How much should one let taximplications affect investment decisionJmaking? Is low turnover a goal? Inlarge part this is a skill and personality issue, so there is no need to makeexcuses if one's choice differs from the general view of what is proper.

选股之外

成功的管理投资组合要比选股更重要，你务必要回答以下几个问题：最佳持股数是几个？什么时候下手买？什么时候出手卖？我们是要关注不同产业中的周期性产业还是非周期性产业呢？我们在多大程度上会让税收影响我们的投资决定呢？低周转率值得投资吗？这些东西在很大程度上是技巧和性格的问题，所以当我们的决策和大多数别人看来正确的选择不一样的时候，我们没必要给自己找借口也用不着跟别人解释。

I like to hold 12 to 18 stocks diversified among various depressed industries,and tend to be fully invested. This number seems to provide enough room for mybest ideas while smoothing out volatility, not that I feel volatility in anyway is related to risk. But you see, I have this heartburn problem and don'tneed the extra stress.

我个人比较喜欢持有各种低迷产业的股票数量是12-18只，而且是满仓操作。这个数字

应该可以在我们维稳大变数的时候提供足够的浮动空间，并不是说我感觉变数一大就一定有风险。你看，这个时候我既保持了适当的焦虑也不会给自己太大压力。

Tax implications are not a primary concern of mine. I know my portfolioturnover will generally exceed 50% annually, and way back at 20% the longJtermtax benefits of lowJturnover pretty much disappear. Whether I'm at 50% or 100%or 200% matters little. So I am not afraid to sell when a stock has a quick 40%to 50% a pop.

对我来说交税并不是我关心的首要问题。我清楚地知道我的投资组合年周转率是超过50%的，但是一旦长期税收从低周转率中获利达20%，这部分也差不多算抵消了。不管年周转率是50%还是100%还是200%都没差。所以当一个股票从40 %跳到50%的时候我会考虑把他卖掉的。

As for when to buy, I mix some barebones technical analysis into mystrategy a tool held over from my days as a commodities trader. Nothing fancy.But I prefer to buy within 10% to 15% of a 52 week low that has shown it selfto offer some price support. That's the contrarian part of me. And if a stock  other than the rare birds discussed abovebreaks to a new low, in most cases I cut the loss. That's the practical part. Ibalance the fact that I am fundamentally turning my back on potentially greatervalue with the fact that since implementing this rule I haven't had a singlemisfortune blow up my entire portfolio.

至于什么时候买，我本人是将技术分析法和我自己的策略相结合——一个多年交易者总结出来的工具，也不是什么特别神奇的东西。我一般习惯在股价位于52周新低上下10%到15%的区间购买，关键是我希望我的买入点有足够强的价格支撑。这是我跟其他人比较不一样的地方。如果一只股票——除了我们上面讨论的稀缺标的——创了新低，大多数情况下我会选择止损。这是我比较务实的地方。通过上面的策略，我做到了避免自己对那些潜在的能创造更大价值的机会置之不理，同时通过实行这个策略我从来没有遭受过严重到影响我整个投资组合的损失。

I do not view fundamental analysis as infallible. Rather, I see it as away of putting the odds on my side. I am a firm believer that it is a dog eatdog world out there. And while I do not acknowledge market efficiency, I do notbelieve the market is perfectly inefficient either. Insiders leak information.Analysts distribute illegal tidbits to a select few. And the stock price cansometimes reflect the latest information before I, as a fundamental analyst,catch on. I might even make an error. Hey, I admit it. But I don't let it killmy returns. I'm just not that stubborn.

我觉得基础分析不可能是天衣无缝的。我反而认为这个方法本质上是让赔率对自己有利。我坚信股票市场就是狗咬狗的竞争。我是不尽信市场效率这一说的，但我也不信市场是毫无效率的。总有内部人会泄露消息出来。分析师会给某些人尝点甜头，因此股价也会在像我这样的分析师嗅到之前就反应出来了。就算是我也会犯错，我承认的。但是我是不会让我的利润因此严重受损，我可没那么顽固。

In the end, investing is neither science nor art JJ it is a scientificart. Over time, the road of empiric discovery toward interesting stock ideaswill lead to rewards and profits that go beyond mere money. I hope some of youwill find resonance with my work JJ and maybe make a few bucks from it.

最后，投资既不是科学也不是艺术——它是具有科学性的艺术。随着时间的推移，股票研究的经验主义道路给我们带来的回报将不仅仅是金钱。我希望我的读者们可以和我的工作产生共鸣——没准你能从中小赚一笔呢。

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编者按：投资既不是科学也不是艺术——它是具有科学性的艺术，昨日我与大家分享了《大空头》里Michael Burry的投资策略（一），今日继续分享第二部分，希望Michael Burry的投资策略系列文章对读者会有所启发。

大空头里的Michael Burry是个典型的怪胎，不擅社交，一个眼睛基本瞎了，天天只研究数据，挖公司股票。

但是正是这样的一个怪胎，看到了美国房地产泡沫，并且成为了第一个大举做空美国房地产的人。

Dr. Michael Burry is the founder of  Scion Capital. He was recently made famous with the general public as a character in the movie adaptation of Michael Lewis’ book. The Big Short, but even before then he was famous in investing circles for his astute investing during times like the financial crisis of 2007.

Michael Burry医生是Scion资本的创始人。最近他因一部电影中的角色出了名，这部影片改编自Michael Lewis的书《大空头》。其实在此之前，像在2007年这样的金融危机时，他已经凭借自己绝妙的投资策略在投资圈斩获名气。

Michael Burry is portrayed in the movie by Christian Bale. Thereal Michael Burrystarted out as a part time investor andblogger and built his reputation and AUM with great results and originalthinking. 

电影中Michael Burry这个角色由Christian Bale饰演。现实生活的Michael Burry原本是一名业余投资者、也是博主，由此开始慢慢积累名气，并根据原创逻辑建立自己的资产管理组合，收益颇丰。

He is a physician by training and has diagnosed himself as having Asperger’s Syndrome. Burry is particularly interesting for investors in that hehas adapted value investing principles to his personality, skills andnature.

他还是一名训练有素的内科医生，确诊自己患有阿斯伯格综合症。投资者们对Burry很感兴趣，因为他采取了跟自己的性格、策略、本性相符合的价值投资思想。

Like Charlie Munger did many years before, Burry found new ways forvalue investing to evolve beyond using the system to find “cigar butt” stocks. 

就像Charlie Munger多年前做的一样，Burry找到了新的价值投资的方法，而不仅仅是使用这一体系去寻找“烟蒂”股票。

Burry’s approach indicates that value investing can work for technology and otherstocks that people like Warren Buffet may invest in if circle of competenceexists and the holding period is not as long that used by someone like WarrenBuffett. 

Burry的方法表明价值投资对于科技股是有用的，对于其它一些股票也是有用的，比如只要能力圈存在，沃伦·巴菲特可能会投的股票跑，但是这些股票的持有期不需要跟巴菲特的持有期一样长。

Technology changes too much to adopt the same holding period as Mungerand Buffett. What is Burry doing today? “Michael Burry is still managing a hedge fund named Scion and is still critical of the way the financial system is being run, but now he’s more interested in water than real estate” wrote the author of a New York magazine article who interviewed him inlate 2015.

科技革新的速度太快了，以至于我们无法像Munger和 Buffet那样长期持有股票。Burry现在在做什么呢？Michael Burry现在管理着一家名为Scion的对冲基金，对金融体系的运作方式还是抱着审视态度，但他现在对水业和房地产的兴趣更大”，《纽约》杂志的作者在2015年末采访Burry后的文章中写道。

Burry’s story demonstrates several important things. Most importantly, the power of being rational and the power of fundamental bottoms up research. It also demonstrates the huge value that permanent capital provides to a rational money manager since as Keynes once said: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Even as rational as Burry is, it took courage to make and to hold on to the investments that made him famous.Being right, but too early, is indistinguishable from being wrong.

Burry的故事说明了几件重要的事情，最重要的是理性的力量和从基本面自下而上进行研究的力量。他的故事印证了永久性资本会给理性的资本经营者提供的巨大价值，正如凯恩斯所说：市场不理性的时间可能比你能保持偿还能力的时间长。即便是像Burry这么理性的人，也是需要勇气去下决定、去坚守那些让他成名的投资决策。

1.    “My weapon of choice as a stock picker is research; it’s critical for me to understand a company’s value before laying down a dime. I really had no choice in this matter, for when I first happened upon the writings of Benjamin Graham, I felt as if I was born to play the roleof value investor.” “Investors in the habit of overturning the most stones will find the most success.” “The late 90s almost forced me to identify myself as a value investor, because I thought what everybody else was doing was in sane.”

“我选股票的利器就是做研究；对我来说，在了解一家公司的价值之后再去投资是很重要的。我在这件事情上十分肯定，因为当我第一次偶然看到本杰明·富兰克林的著作时，我就认定自己天生就是价值投资者。” “翻石头翻得最多的投资者往往能获得最大的成功。” “90年代末这个时期几乎让我不得不视自己为一个价值投资者，因为我觉得其他人的做法简直是疯了。”

Burry has not completely adopted the ideas of Warren Buffett or Ben Graham and has instead developed his own approach that remains true to the fundamental bedrock ofvalue investing. 

Burry并没有完全采用沃伦·巴菲特和本·格雷厄姆的理念，他在价值投资的河床基础上形成了一套自己的方法。

Burry’s example illustrates how it is possible to follow the value investing system and yet have your own unique style. Again, he is at his core a value investor. Burry makes clear in this set of quotes that he treats shares of stock as a partial ownership of a real business and that understanding any business requires research. 

Burry的例子表明了在皈依价值投资体系的同时保持自己独特的风格是可行的。再一次强调，他本质上是价值投资者。Burry在这段话里明确说过自己把股票看作是一个实体企业的部分所有权，所以想要了解一家企业就需要做研究。

You must genuinely understand of the underlying business. A share of stock is not a piece of paper to be traded like a baseball card. The movie version of The Big Short conveys that the style of Burry has a lot more stress associated with it than a Buffett approach, but for Burry ithas worked out well financially.

你必须完完全全地去了解一个企业的根本。股票并不是棒球卡，不是一张用来交易的纸条。在电影版的《大空头》里，Burry的投资方法附带着比巴菲特的方法更大的压力，但是对Burry而言，这个方法单从投资角度来看很适用。

2.    “All my stock picking is 100% based on the concept of a margin of safety, as introduced to the world in the book “Security Analysis,” which Graham co-authored with David Dodd. By now I have my own version of their techniques, but the net is that I want to protect my downside to prevent permanent loss of capital. Specific, known catalysts are notnecessary. Sheer, outrageous value is enough.” 

“我坚定地认为最好的对冲就是买一支适当安全和便宜的股票。”“这个就是我投资的原则，在做普通股投资时，把上升收益最大化是第一，其次是把下跌最小化。”

 “My firm opinion is that the best hedge is buying an appropriately safe and cheap stock.” “It is a tenet of my investment style that, on the subject of common stock investment, maximizing the upside means first and foremost minimizing the downside.” 

“我是100%依照安全边际的理念选股的。这个理念在格雷厄姆与戴维·多德合著的书《证券分析》一书中有介绍。至此，我已经在他们的技巧上发展出了自己的版本，但是核心还是希望保护自己在下跌时不会遭遇无止境的资本损失。具体而言，发现催化剂不是关键。纯粹的价值足够了。”

Burry reveals in these statements that he keeps the core value investing faith by always using a “margin of safety” approach. When Burry says: “Lost dollars are simply harder to replace than gained dollars are to lose” it is another way of saying what Warren Buffett has said many times: “The first rule of investing is: don’t lose money;the second rule is don’t forget Rule No. 1.” Joel Greenblatt agrees: “Look down, not up, when making your initial investment decision. 

Burry在上述言论中表明自己通过经常使用“安全边际”这个方法来保持价值投资的核心信念。当Burry说：“要想拿回失去的钱比失去赚得的钱更难”，这其实就是沃伦·巴菲特常说的: “投资的第一要诀是：不要丢钱；第二要诀就是记住第一要诀,” 换了一种说法而已。Joel Greenblatt对此表示赞同：“在做初始的投资决定时，要关注下跌，而不是上涨。

If you don’t lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones.” Seth Klarman writes in his book of the same name: “A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world.” An investor who purchases shares in a business at a price that reflects a margin of safety can make a mistake and still do well financially.

如果你没亏钱，那么剩下的选择大多是不错的。” 西斯·卡尔曼在自己的同名著作中写道：“只有在股票购买价格充分低于内在价值，足够应对人为失误、不走运因素、允许复杂、不可测、快速变化情况下的极端波动时，安全边际才存在。” 如果按反映出安全边际的价格买入一家企业的股票，那么即便犯了错误，投资者也还是能在投资上表现不错。

When Burry refers to “catalysts” he is talking about the events that I wrote about in my post on Mario Gabelli, who has said: “A catalyst may take many forms and can be an industry or company-specific event. Catalysts can be a regulatory change, industry consolidation, a repurchase of shares, a sale or spin-off of a division, or a change in management.” Burry, Buffett,Greenblatt, Klarman, Gabelli all think about margin of safety first.It is not an optional part of value investing.

当提到 “催化剂”时，Burry也提到了我之前在写Mario Gbelli时说过的案例：“催化剂可能有多种形态，可以是行业的，可以是跟具体某个公司有关的事情。催化剂可以是监管变化、行业联合、股票回购、卖出或拆分公司分部、或是公司管理层变动。” Burry, Buffett, Greenblatt, Klarman, Gabelli都会优先考虑安全边际。这并不是价值投资的任选部分。

3.    “I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they’ve been polished up a  bit.” “Fully a ware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices, I will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse.” 

“我尝试去买那些不受欢迎的，看上去像走到了穷途末路的公司的股票，稍微涨上来一点就卖掉。” “我十分清楚好的企业只有在价格也恰到好处时才能带来绝妙的投资机会，我会继续挖那些被当作垃圾股的便宜货。”

The third bedrock value investing principle is: Mr. Market is your servant and not your master. Howard Marks makes the same point Burry is making about the necessity of sometime being contrarian: “It is our job as contrarians to catch falling knives, hopefully with care and skill. That’s why the concept of intrinsic value is so important. If we hold a view of value that enables us to buy when everyone else is selling – and if our view turns out to be right –that’s the route to the greatest rewards earned with the least risk….

价值投资原则的第三个基石是：你要把市场先生当作仆人，而不是你的主人。Howard Marks跟Burry有过同样的观点，他们认为有时候当一个逆向投资者是必要的。“作为逆向投资者，我们的工作就是抓住落下的飞刀，当然是以谨慎且有技巧的方式。”这就是为什么内在价值的概念如此之重要。如果我们觉得是价值支撑我们在大家都卖出的时候持有——如果这个观点是正确的——那么这就是承担最少的风险却获得最大回报的途径……

To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.” Adopting the popular viewpoint will not result in market out-performance if the popular forecast is also right. Some roadkill is really roadkill, and some refuse is really refuse. Finding an out-of-favor business selling at a substantial bargain and then waiting is the name of the value investing game.It is easier to say than do.

为了获得出众的投资收益，你必须对价值有更深刻的认识。因此你需要学会别人不会的东西，从不同的角度看问题，或者是在分析价值时做得更出色——当然最理想的是三点都能做到。”即便大众的观点是对的，跟随大众的观点也并不能让你比市场表现得更出色。很多马路杀手就真的是马路杀手，有的垃圾股真的就是垃圾股。找到一个卖价足够便宜的冷门公司之后就是等待，这是价值投资游戏的真谛。但是说起来总是比做起来要容易。

4.    “I prefer to look at specific investments within the inefficient parts of the market.” “The bulk of opportunities remainin undervalued, smaller, more illiquid situations that often represent average or slightly above-average businesses.” “In essence, the stock market represents three separate categories of business. They are, adjusted for inflation, those with shrinking intrinsic value, those with approximately stable intrinsic value, and those with steadily growing intrinsic value. The preference, always,would be to buy a long-term franchise at a substantial discount from growing intrinsic value.” 

“我偏向于在市场的无效领域寻找具体的投资机会。” “绝大多数投资机会都藏在低估的、小型的、流动性更强的情况中，它们通常代表平均水平或者稍微超出平均水平的企业。”“从本质上说，股市代表着三类不同的企业。通货膨胀调整之后，这三类分别是：内在价值缩水的企业，内在价值几乎稳定的企业，内在价值稳步增长的企业。最优先考虑的当然是以极大的折扣价买入内在价值逐渐增长的长期特权。”

Markets are often efficient but that does not mean that they are always efficient.If you work hard at the research side of investing and are diligent Burry believes that bargains can be found. The bargains may not always be found within your circle of competence and may not be available for very long but if you are aggressive and willing to act quickly Burry believes there are big opportunities for an investor.

市场经常是有效的，但是这并不意味着他们总是有效的。如果你在做投资时努力做好研究，并且足够勤奋，Burry相信你总是能找到便宜的股票的。便宜的股票不一定总是在你的能力圈中被找到，可能也不一定长期买得到，但是如果你足够有闯劲儿，也愿意迅速行动，Burry认为这样的投资者会找到大机会的。

5，   “It is Buffett, not Graham that espouses low turnover. Graham actually set targets: 50% gain or 2 years. That actually ensures rather high turnover.” 

“巴菲特赞成低收益率，但是格雷厄姆不赞成。费雷厄姆实际上定的目标是：50%的收益或者2年。这实际上确保了相当高的收益。”

The actual Ben Graham quote from an interview is: “If a stock hasn’t met your objective by the end of the second calendar year from the time of purchase, sell it regardless of price.” This statement by Graham is not consistent with Warren Buffett’s view of the world, but it is perfectly acceptable for a value investor to do as long as the holding period is not so short that it falls within the definition of speculation. Burry feels comfortable buying stocks and other assets that Buffett would avoid. Both approaches are still value investing.

本·格雷厄姆的话实际上出自一次采访：“如果一只股票在第二年年末都没有达到你的预期，那么就卖掉它，不要管价格。”格雷厄姆的这番话跟巴菲特的世界观并不一致，但那是这对于价值投资者而言是可接受的，只要持有期没有短到被认为是投机行为。很多巴菲特不会的股票、资产，Burry倒是觉得能接受。两种方法都是价值投资。

6，  “Credit-default swaps remedied the problem of open-ended risk for me.  If I bought acredit-default swap, my downside was defined and certain, and the upside was many multiples of it.”

“信贷违约掉期帮我修正了无止尽风险的问题。如果我买入一个信贷违约掉期，那么下跌就是有限且确定的，而上涨可达几倍。”

Burry is describing a classic example of positive optionality that I discussed in my post on Nassim Taleb: “Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).” If you can buy positive optionality at a bargain price that investment can be very valuable. It is of course possible to over pay for optionality.

Burry说的就是我之前在Nassim Taleb这篇文章中说过的典型的积极的期权属性案例：“这个期权属性是指非对称上涨（最好是无止境的），对应有限的下跌（最好是很小的）。”如果你能够以较低的价格买入积极的类期权，这个投资就很有价值。当然你可能需要为这种类期权支付太多。

 “How do I determine the discount? I usually focus on free cash flow and enterprise value (market capitalization less cash plus debt). I will screen through large numbers of companies by looking at the enterprise value/EBITDA ratio, though the ratio I am willing to accept tends to vary with the industry and its position in the economic cycle. 

要如何决定折扣呢？我通常会关注自由现金流和企业价值（市值减去现金，加上负债）。我会通过EV/EBITDA这个从一大批企业中筛选出一部分，我会根据这个比率对不同行业以及企业在经济周期所处的不同位置具体分析。

If a stock passes this loose screen, I’ll then look harder to determine a more specific price and value for the company. I also invest in rare birds — asset plays and, to a lesser extent, arbitrage opportunities and companies selling at less than two-thirds of net value (net working capital less liabilities). I’ll happily mix in the types of companies favored by Warren Buffett — those with asustainable competitive advantage, as demonstrated by longstanding and stable high returns on invested capital — if they become available at good prices.”  

如果一个企业通过筛选，我就会再详细考量，给这个企业定一个更具体的价格和价值。我也会投资罕见的投资标的——估值不当的股票，或者范围再缩小一点，套利机会，或者公司股价低于其净值（净经运营资本减去负债）的2/3。我很乐意综合一下巴菲特看好的各类公司，只要它们价格合适——有可持续竞争优势的那一类，表现在投入资本的回报率持续稳定在高水平。

Burry is not like Buffett in every way and not like Graham either. Burry shows how it is possible to follow the value investing system and yet have your own unique style. But he is still a value investor since he buys at a price that reflects a margin of safety, does not make Mr. Market his master and treats shares of stock as a partial ownership of a real business. Burry’s styleis opportunistic and fits with who is he is.  You are not Michael Burry and neither am I. Most everyone is far better off investing in a low cost portfolio of diversified index funds.

Burry在各方面跟巴菲特和格雷厄姆都不是很像。Burry向我们展示了如何在价值投资体系里保留自己独特的风格。但是他仍旧是一位价值投资者，因为他的买入价格体现了安全边际，他没有让市场先生成为自己的主人，而是把股份当作是自己的对于一个实业的部分所有权。Burry的风格是机会主义，很适合他自己。你不是Michael Burry我也不是。对我们大多数人来说，投资成本低的多样化指数基金是更明智的。

7.    “Volatility does not determine risk.” “I certainly view volatility as my friend. Volatility is on sale because 99% of the institutions out there are doing their best to avoid it.” “I will always choose the dollar bill carrying a wildly fluctuating discount rather than the dollar bill selling for a quite stable premium.” Michael Mauboussin has a wonderful description of volatility that I like a lot.

“波动率并不意味风险。”“跟我朋友一样，我对股票波动率率持有非常明确的观点。波动率较大的股票售价便宜，因为99%的机构都在极力甩开它们。”“相对于价格稳定的股票来说，我永远会选择那些波动比较大的、便宜的股票。”我很喜欢MichaelMauboussin对于股票振幅的这段论述。

“A lot of value investors shun concepts such as volatility, or standard deviation, as a measure of risk — and I’m sympathetic to that point of view.That said, the notion of risk is very time-dependent. For very short periods oftime, volatility is a pretty good way to think about risk. I have kids in college and I have to write a check for their tuition, so volatility is a very important concept for me. I want to minimize my volatility so I can make sure I can write that check.

许多价值投资者会避免用波动率或者标准偏差的概念来估量风险。我赞同这种观点。即便如此，风险的概念是完全取决于时间的。短期来看，波动率是估量风险的好办法。我的几个孩子在上大学，我用支票给他们付学费，所以波动率对我来讲很重要。我得使波动率最小化，才能够确保自己可以开出支票支付学费。

Or if you go out to an options desk and say, “Options traders, we’re taking away your measure of implied volatility,” they would actually be very much hamstrung. But if you take a long-term point of view,which most value investors do, then that idea of volatility melts away and, in fact, volatility becomes your friend. Risk then becomes the loss of permanent capital. You can bring these under the same tent by thinking about the temporal dimension。

 

否则如果你直接去期权商的柜台说：“交易员，我们不考虑你们算出来的隐形波动率，”那他们可能会被惊呆。但是如果像大部分投资者一样从长远角度来看，波动率的影响就会逐渐消失。事实上波动率还会成为你的好伙伴。此时风险就变成了资本上的永久损失。你可以从时间维度上得出同样的结论。