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(2009-03-31 14:50)
标签:

杂谈

ATTITUDE SURVEY
态度调查
1. To make money as a trader you have to know what the market is going to do next.
Agree Disagree
作为交易者,如果要赚钱,你必须知道市场下一步会如何。
同意 不同意
2. Sometimes I find myself thinking that there must be a way to trade without having to take a loss.
Agree Disagree
有时候我想,一定有一个方法,让我交易时不会亏损。
同意 不同意
3. Making money as a trader is primarily a function of analysis.
Agree Disagree
交易者赚钱是分析的基本功能。
同意 不同意
4. Losses are an unavoidable component of trading.
Agree Disagree
亏损是交易中无法回避的组成部分。
同意 不同意
5. My risk is always defined before I enter a trade.
Agree Disagree
我在交易前总是衡量风险。
同意 不同意
6. In my mind there is always a cost associated with finding out what the market may do next.
Agree Disagree
在我的思想中,要知道市场下一步如何是有成本

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(2009-03-31 14:50)
标签:

杂谈

Testing. Once you decide on a set of variables that conform to these specifications, you need to test them to see how well they work. If you have the appropriate software to do this, you are probably already familiar with the procedures. If you don’t have testing software, you can either forward test your variables or hire a testing service to do it for you. If you need a recommendation for a testing service, contact me at markdouglas.com or tradinginthezone.com for a referral. In any case, keep in mind that the object of the exercise is to use trading as a vehicle to learn how to think objectively (in the market’s perspective), as if you were a casino operator. Right now, the bottom-line performance of your system isn’t very important, but it is important that you have a good idea of what you can expect in the way of a win-to-loss ratio (the number of winning trades relative to the number of losing trades for your sample size).
测试。一旦你确认了你的变数符合这些要求,你就要测
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(2009-03-31 14:48)
标签:

杂谈

我是这样分配赢利的仓位的。当我1971年到1981年开始炒股时,我可以完全分析我的交易行为。我发现我很少亏损。平均地说,10笔交易中只有1笔是亏损的。在最终亏损交易中的25——30%中,我曾经都赚了几个基点。我计算了一下,如果我能养成习惯,当我赚了几个基点时,我就平掉至少三分之一的仓位,这样到了年底,我的赢利应该超过我的付出。我是对的。即使在今天,只要是赢利的仓位,我就会毫不保留,毫不犹豫地兑现部分赢利的仓位。根据市场不同,我平仓的数量不同,每次都不同。比如,债券期货,如果我赚了4个基点,我会平仓三分之一。对于标准普尔股指期货,如果我赚了1.5——2个点,我就平仓三分之一。
In a bond trade, I usually don’t risk more than six tics to find out if the trade is going to work. Using a three-contract trade as an example, here’s how it works: If I get into a position and the market immediately goes against me without giving me at least four tics first, I get stopped out of the trade for an 18-tic loss, but as I’ve indicated, this doesn’t happen often. More likely, the trade goes in my favor by some sma
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(2009-03-31 14:46)
标签:

杂谈

EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO
练习:向赌场学习利用优势交易
The object of this exercise is to convince yourself that trading is just a simple game of probabilities (numbers), not much different from pulling the handle of a slot machine. At the micro level, the outcomes to individual edges are independent occurrences and random in relationship to one another. At the macro level, the outcomes over a series of trades will produce consistent results.
这个练习的目的是让你相信交易就是简单的概率(数字)游戏,和拉吃角子老虎机的拉杆没多大区别。微观地说,每个个人的优势都是独立和随机的。宏观地说,一系列的交易是可以实现持续一致的结果的。
From a probabilities perspective, this means that instead of being the person playing the slot machine, as a trader, you can be the casino, if:
从概率的角度来说,作为交易者,你并不是一个人在玩吃角子老虎机,你也可以是赌场,只要:
1. you have an edge that genuinely puts the odds of success in your favor;
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(2009-03-31 14:45)
标签:

杂谈

这些信念是7个持续一致性的原则。要想把这些原则融于你的思想系统并起作用,你要可以制造和持续一致性一致的体验。这和小孩想和狗玩,或我想跑步都是一个道理。要想和狗玩耍,小孩首先要尝试和狗接近。最终,当他思想系统中的能量的平衡发生转移时,他就没有任何内心的阻力和狗玩耍了。要想跑步,我必须克服内心的挣扎以创造一个跑步的体验。最终,当能量越来越多地向新的我转移时,跑步变成了我的自然表达。
Obviously, what we’re trying to accomplish here is far more complex than becoming a runner or petting a dog, but the underlying dynamics of the process are identical. We’ll start with a specific objective. The first principle of consistency is the belief, “I objectively identify my edges.” The key word here is objectively. Being objective means there’s no potential to define, interpret, and therefore perceive any market information from either a painful or euphoric perspective. The way to be objective is to operate out of beliefs that keep your expectations neutral and to always take the unknown force
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(2009-03-31 14:43)
标签:

杂谈

Now, if you take these experiences and put them into the context of what we now understand about the nature of beliefs, there are a number of observations we can make:
如果你把这些体验放入你对信念的理解,那么就能说明几点:
1. Initially, my desire to be a runner had no foundation of support in my mental system. In other words, there was no other source of energy (an energized concept demanding expression_r) consistent with my desire.
一开始,我想要跑步的想法并没有在我的思想系统里得到支持。换句话说,没有其它能量(有能量的,需要表达的概念)来支持我们的欲望。
2. I actually had to do something to create that support. To create a belief that “I am a runner” required that I create a series of experiences consistent with the new belief. Remember that everything we think, say, or do contributes energy to some belief in our mental system. Each time I experienced a conflicting thought and was able to successfully refocus on my objective, with enough conviction to get me
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(2009-03-31 14:41)
标签:

杂谈

Making mistakes is a natural function of living and will continue to be until we reach a point at which:
犯错是人生的自然功能,如果不做到以下程度,会继续犯错的:
1. all our beliefs are in absolute harmony with our desires, and
2. all our beliefs are structured in such a way that they are completely consistent with what works from the environment’s perspective.
1. 所有的信念和我们的欲望是和谐的,且
2. 所有的信念的结构和环境是一致的。
Obviously, if our beliefs are not consistent with what works from the environments perspective, the potential for making a mistake is high, if not inevitable. We won’t be able to perceive the appropriate set of steps to our objective. Worse, we won’t be able to perceive that what we want may not be available, or available in the quantity we desire or at the time when we want it.
显然,如果我们的信念和环境不一致,那么犯错的概率就高。我们就无法采取合适的方法实现目标。更糟糕的是,我们可能不知道我们想要的东西不存在,
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(2009-03-31 14:40)
标签:

杂谈

在本章,我想给你一个交易练习,这样就能在你的思想环境中融合这些事实。
The first stage is the mechanical stage. In this stage, you:
第一阶段是机械阶段。在这个阶段,你:
1. Build the self-trust necessary to operate in an unlimited environment.
2. Learn to flawlessly execute a trading system.
3. Train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths).
4. Create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader.
1. 在无限的环境中建立必要的自信。
2. 学习没有缺点地执行一个交易系统。
3. 训练你的思想用概率思考(5个基本事实)。
4. 创造一个强壮的,不动摇的信念,以成为持续一致的交易者。
Once you have completed this first stage, you can then advance to the subjective stage of trading. In this stage, you use anything you have ever learned about the nature of market movement to do whatever it is you want to do. There’s a lot of freedom in this stage, so you will have to learn how to monitor your susceptibili
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(2009-03-31 14:39)
标签:

杂谈

SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING
自我评估和交易
How this characteristic applies to our trading is also quite profound. The trading environment offers us an arena of unlimited opportunities to accumulate wealth. But just because the money is available and we can perceive the possibility of getting it, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we (as individuals) have an unlimited sense of self-valuation. In other words, there could be a huge gap between how much money we desire for ourselves, how much we perceive is available, and how much we actually believe we are worth or deserve.
这个特点对我们的交易有深刻的影响。交易环境提供了一个无限积累财富的竞技场。但是钱在那里,我们以为可以得到它,但这并不以为这我们(个人)有无限的自我评估。换句话说,我们想要的钱,我们看到的钱,我们认为我们能得到的钱,这三者之间有巨大的落差。
Everyone has a sense of self-valuation. The easiest way to describe this sense is to list every active belief, both conscious and subconscious, that has the
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(2009-03-31 14:37)
标签:

杂谈

Therefore, the boy is left with an active contradiction where his minimally charged belief that not all dogs are dangerous gives him the ability to perceive the possibility of playing with a dog, but his powerfully charged belief that all dogs are dangerous still causes him to experience some level of fear every time he encounters a dog (maybe not enough fear to cause him to run in terror, because some of that fear will be offset by the other belief, but there will certainly be enough fear to cause a great deal of discomfort).
因此,小孩只有微小的信念,知道和狗玩耍是可能的,但是他强大的信念总是让他每次遇到狗就害怕(也许不会由害怕变成恐惧,因为有些害怕被其它信念抵消了,但是还是有足够的害怕让他感到大量不安)。
The ability to “see” and consequently know that a situation is not dangerous, but at the same time find ourselves immobilized with fear, can be quite baffling if we don’t understand that what we discover as the result of thinking creatively or realize from an inadve
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