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杂谈

Sell stop-in triggered. Stop loss moved down.

Traveling back to Singapore tomorrow. Blog will cutover to Blogger. Back to http://taichisealcharts.blogspot.sg/
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Trend change on weekly.
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image.jpg

2nd consecutive weekly close below the 98.855 neckline, confirmed
weekly double top. Added to short EDZ5 at 98.76.
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(2013-06-07 23:45)
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杂谈

Remaining positions small short cable and short EDZ5 in good size. +175K NFP is not enough to push markets convincingly towards 'taper', although it certainly helps. Long USD liquidation frenzy of past few days possibly has removed most of downside risk. USD/JPY bounce from low of 95.00 tonight to above 97.00 now has climactic selling feel to it.

P&L back to zero for the year after briefly dipping below last night.

Still believe what I said in Blogger blog earlier regarding EDZ5. If you believe taper and tightening coming sometime in next year, pricing is crazy stupid wrong. This is one of my planned comeback trades.
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  • Finding it really difficult trading from Shanghai.
  • Have no clue what's driving the moves. I imagine there must be blood on the streets tonight [USD/JPY 99.46 - 95.90 range !! Good God!]
  • Stopped out of all positions tonight. Cable at 1.5430, ZN at 130-06, USD/JPY at 98.80. 
  • Didn't even survive long enough to get to play the NFP game this month. Probably going to be a strong number to setup the mother of all whipsaws. 
  • Still trying to find out what is going on. Bad idea to be trading from here with very limited information access. Have to re-think my whole setup as Shanghai is going to be a regular thing for me.
  • Am now small net negative for the year. Kicking myself for not protecting the wonderful start to the year.
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Try again, only in a quarter of what I had on before. Should see some support around current levels.

Addendum : Stopped out 98.80. When it rains it pours.
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  • Unable to call up a weekly ZNc1 chart on Saxo, so have to make do with a look at the compressed daily.
  • Cannot find a reason to buy this (Yet. Perhaps if we get to 127-16 .. then it's a different story). So happy to remain short even in the face of all the damage wreaked to my other positions.
  • Seems to me that the weak US PMI has hurt long USD trades more than short USTs. Perhaps thats a hint of where the crowd is. Long USD = crowded. Short USTs = relatively new. In fact, I would think that even with the move from 1.60% to 2.23%, the market is still super long duration everywhere.
  • Thus, while the long USD and short UST trades are highly correlated, perhaps the l
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  • Long USD thesis crushed by the weak US PMI last night.
  • One by one, my trades are being squeezed out. 
  • Left now with only short Cable, short ZNU3 and short EDZ5.
  • P&L even at this early stage of the month, has been a disaster. Dropping ever further back behind budget.
  • Above chart of EDZ5. Double top still valid. Which means the long USD trade is not competely out for the count yet. Eg a strong NFP this Friday and the USD bulls will be back in business. 

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(2013-06-03 23:27)
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杂谈

Stopped Aug Gold at 1402.40
Stopped USD/JPY at -99.75
Ended up getting squeezed out after all on weak US PMI. Damn!
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  • Started the month badly with -Copper/+AUD spread blowing up disastrously in my face after RBA rate cut. Spread trade became 2 outright legs both on wrong side of market direction = Large Down.
  • Recovered most of losses and turned impressively positive with long USD trades (vs Gold, JPY and GBP) = Decent Up.
  • Squeeze on long USD positions on last 3 business days of month wiped out most of gains. Ended the month small positive. Net round trip to nowhere.
  • Am now some 50% behind budget for the year.
  • Positions and view (long USD) carried forward into June. No change there. Short UST/Rates (assets) is a relatively new idea I am testing here.
  • Day to day volatility can kill. Position size management is paramount.
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