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此次金融危机的爆发与蔓延使我们再次面对一个古老而悬而未决的问题,那就是什么样的国际储备货币才能保持全球金融稳定、促进世界经济发展。历史上的银本位、金本位、金汇兑本位、布雷顿森林体系都是解决该问题的不同制度安排,这也是国际货币基金组织(IMF)成立的宗旨之一。但此次金融危机表明,这一问题不仅远未解决,由于现行国际货币体系的内在缺陷反而愈演愈烈。

理论上讲,国际储备货币的币值首先应有一个稳定的基准和明确的发行规则以保证供给的有序;其次,其供给总量还可及时、灵活地根据需求的变化进行增减调节;第三,这种调节必须是超脱于任何一国的经济状况和利益。当前以主权信用货币作为主要国际储备货币是历史上少有的特例。此次危机再次警示我们,必须创造性地改革和完善现行国际货币体系,推动国际储备货币向着币值稳定、供应有序、总量可调的方向完善,才能从根本上维护全球经济金融稳定。

一、此次金融危机的爆发并在全球范围内迅速蔓延,反映出当前国际货币体系的内在缺陷和系统性风险

对于储备货币发行国而言,国内货币政策目标与各国对储备货币的要求经常产生矛盾。货币当局既不能忽视本国货币的国际职能而单纯考虑国内目标,又无法同时兼顾国内外的不同目标。既可能因抑制本国通胀的需要而无法充分满足全球经济不断增长的需求,也可能因过分刺激国内需求而导致全球流动性泛滥。理论上特里芬难题仍然存在,即储备货币发行国无法在为世界提供流动性的同时确保币值的稳定。

当一国货币成为全世界初级产品定价货币、贸易结算货币和储备货币后,该国对经济失衡的汇率调整是无效的,因为多数国家货币都以该国货币为参照。经济全球化既受益于一种被普遍接受的储备货币,又为发行这种货币的制度缺陷所害。从布雷顿森林体系解体后金融危机屡屡发生且愈演愈烈来看,全世界为现行货币体系付出的代价可能会超出从中的收益。不仅储备货币的使用国要付出沉重的代价,发行国也在付出日益增大的代价。危机未必是储备货币发行当局的故意,但却是制度性缺陷的必然。

二、创造一种与主权国家脱钩、并能保持币值长期稳定的国际储备货币,从而避免主权信用货币作为储备货币的内在缺陷,是国际货币体系改革的理想目标

1、超主权储备货币的主张虽然由来以久,但至今没有实质性进展。上世纪四十年代凯恩斯就曾提出采用30种有代表性的商品作为定值基础建立国际货币单位“Bancor”的设想,遗憾的是未能实施,而其后以怀特方案为基础的布雷顿森林体系的崩溃显示凯恩斯的方案可能更有远见。早在布雷顿森林体系的缺陷暴露之初,基金组织就于1969年创设了特别提款权(下称SDR),以缓解主权货币作为储备货币的内在风险。遗憾的是由于分配机制和使用范围上的限制,SDR的作用至今没有能够得到充分发挥。但SDR的存在为国际货币体系改革提供了一线希望。

2、超主权储备货币不仅克服了主权信用货币的内在风险,也为调节全球流动性提供了可能。由一个全球性机构管理的国际储备货币将使全球流动性的创造和调控成为可能,当一国主权货币不再做为全球贸易的尺度和参照基准时,该国汇率政策对失衡的调节效果会大大增强。这些能极大地降低未来危机发生的风险、增强危机处理的能力。

三、改革应从大处着眼,小处着手,循序渐进,寻求共赢

重建具有稳定的定值基准并为各国所接受的新储备货币可能是个长期内才能实现的目标。建立凯恩斯设想的国际货币单位更是人类的大胆设想,并需要各国政治家拿出超凡的远见和勇气。而在短期内,国际社会特别是基金组织至少应当承认并正视现行体制所造成的风险,对其不断监测、评估并及时预警。

同时还应特别考虑充分发挥SDR的作用。SDR具有超主权储备货币的特征和潜力。同时它的扩大发行有利于基金组织克服在经费、话语权和代表权改革方面所面临的困难。因此,应当着力推动SDR的分配。这需要各成员国政治上的积极配合,特别是应尽快通过1997年第四次章程修订及相应的SDR分配决议,以使1981年后加入的成员国也能享受到SDR的好处。在此基础上考虑进一步扩大SDR的发行。

SDR的使用范围需要拓宽,从而能真正满足各国对储备货币的要求。

●建立起SDR与其他货币之间的清算关系。改变当前SDR只能用于政府或国际组织之间国际结算的现状,使其能成为国际贸易和金融交易公认的支付手段。

●积极推动在国际贸易、大宗商品定价、投资和企业记账中使用SDR计价。不仅有利于加强SDR的作用,也能有效减少因使用主权储备货币计价而造成的资产价格波动和相关风险。

●积极推动创立SDR计值的资产,增强其吸引力。基金组织正在研究SDR计值的有价证券,如果推行将是一个好的开端。

●进一步完善SDR的定值和发行方式。SDR定值的篮子货币范围应扩大到世界主要经济大国,也可将GDP作为权重考虑因素之一。此外,为进一步提升市场对其币值的信心,SDR的发行也可从人为计算币值向有以实际资产支持的方式转变,可以考虑吸收各国现有的储备货币以作为其发行准备。

四、由基金组织集中管理成员国的部分储备,不仅有利于增强国际社会应对危机、维护国际货币金融体系稳定的能力,更是加强SDR作用的有力手段

1、由一个值得信任的国际机构将全球储备资金的一部分集中起来管理,并提供合理的回报率吸引各国参与,将比各国的分散使用、各自为战更能有效地发挥储备资金的作用,对投机和市场恐慌起到更强的威慑与稳定效果。对于参与各国而言,也有利于减少所需的储备,节省资金用于发展和增长。基金组织成员众多,同时也是全球唯一以维护货币和金融稳定为职责,并能对成员国宏观经济政策实施监督的国际机构,具备相应的专业特长,由其管理成员国储备具有天然的优势。

2、基金组织集中管理成员国储备,也将是推动SDR作为储备货币发挥更大作用的有力手段。基金组织可考虑按市场化模式形成开放式基金,将成员国以现有储备货币积累的储备集中管理,设定以SDR计值的基金单位,允许各投资者使用现有储备货币自由认购,需要时再赎回所需的储备货币,既推动了SDR 计值资产的发展,也部分实现了对现有储备货币全球流动性的调控,甚至可以作为增加SDR发行、逐步替换现有储备货币的基础。

 

 

The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world confronted us with the long existing but still unanswered question, i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above issue, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system.

 

Theoretically, an international reserve currency should first be anchored to a stable benchmark and issued according to a clear set of rules, therefore to ensure orderly supply; second, its supply should be flexible enough to allow timely adjustment according to the changing demand; third, such adjustments should be disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country. The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history. The crisis called again for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability.

 

I. The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system.

 

Issuing countries of reserve currencies are constantly confronted with the dilemma between achieving their domestic monetary policy goals and meeting other countries’ demand for reserve currencies. On the one hand,the monetary authorities can not simply focus on domestic goals without carrying out their international responsibilities;on the other hand,they cannot pursue different domestic and international objectives at the same time. They may either fail to adequately meet the demand of a growing global economy for liquidity as they tries to ease inflation pressures at home, or create excess liquidity in the global markets by overly stimulating domestic demand. The Triffin Dilemma, i.e., the issuing countries of reserve currencies can not maintain the value of the reserve currencies while providing liquidity to the world, still exists.

 

When a national currency is used in pricing primary commodities, trade settlements and is adopted as a reserve currency globally, efforts of the monetary authority issuing such a currency to address its economic imbalances by adjusting exchange rate would be made in vain, as its currency serves as a benchmark for many other currencies. While benefiting from a widely accepted reserve currency, the globalization also suffers from the flaws of such a system. The frequency and increasing intensity of financial crises following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system suggests the costs of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits. The price is becoming increasingly higher, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws.

 

II. The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.

 

1. Though the super-sovereign reserve currency has long since been proposed, yet no substantive progress has been achieved to date. Back to the 1940s, Keynes had already proposed to introduce an international currency unit named “Bancor”, based on the value of 30 representative commodities. Unfortunately, the proposal was not accepted. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which was based on the White approach, indicates that the Keynesian approach may be more farsighted. The IMF also created the SDR in 1969, when the defects of the Bretton Woods system initially emerged, to mitigate the inherent risks sovereign reserve currencies caused. Yet, the role of the SDR has not been put into full play due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses. However, it serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system.

 

2. A super-sovereign reserve currency not only eliminates the inherent risks of credit-based sovereign currency, but also makes it possible to manage global liquidity. A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity. And when a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.

 

III. The reform should be guided by a grand vision and start with specific deliverables. It should be a gradual process that yields win-win results for all

 

The reestablishment of a new and widely accepted reserve currency with a stable valuation benchmark may take a long time. The creation of an international currency unit, based on the Keynesian proposal, is a bold initiative that requires extraordinary political vision and courage. In the short run, the international community, particularly the IMF, should at least recognize and face up to the risks resulting from the existing system, conduct regular monitoring and assessment and issue timely early warnings.

 

Special consideration should be given to give the SDR a greater role. The SDR has the features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency. Moreover, an increase in SDR allocation would help the Fund address its resources problem and the difficulties in the voice and representation reform. Therefore, efforts should be made to push forward a SDR allocation. This will require political cooperation among member countries. Specifically, the Fourth Amendment to the Articles of Agreement and relevant resolution on SDR allocation proposed in 1997 should be approved as soon as possible so that members joined the Fund after 1981 could also share the benefits of the SDR. On the basis of this, considerations could be given to further increase SDR allocation.

 

The scope of using SDR should be broadened, so as to enable it to fully satisfy the member countries’ demand for a reserve currency.

 

   Set up a settlement system between the SDR and other currencies. Therefore, the SDR, which is now only used between governments and international institutions, could become a widely accepted means of payment in international trade and financial transactions.

   Actively promote the use of the SDR in international trade, commodities pricing, investment and corporate book-keeping. This will help enhance the role of the SDR, and will effectively reduce the fluctuation of prices of assets denominated in national currencies and related risks.

   Create financial assets denominated in the SDR to increase its appeal. The introduction of SDR-denominated securities, which is being studied by the IMF, will be a good start.

   Further improve the valuation and allocation of the SDR. The basket of currencies forming the basis for SDR valuation should be expanded to include currencies of all major economies, and the GDP may also be included as a weight. The allocation of the SDR can be shifted from a purely calculation-based system to one backed by real assets, such as a reserve pool, to further boost market confidence in its value.

 

Ⅳ. Entrusting part of the member countries’ reserve to the centralized management of the IMF will not only enhance the international community’s ability to address the crisis and maintain the stability of the international monetary and financial system, but also significantly strengthen the role of the SDR.

 

1. Compared with separate management of reserves by individual countries, the centralized management of part of the global reserve by a trustworthy international institution with a reasonable return to encourage participation will be more effective in deterring speculation and stabilizing financial markets. The participating countries can also save some reserve for domestic development and economic growth. With its universal membership, its unique mandate of maintaining monetary and financial stability, and as an international “supervisor” on the macroeconomic policies of its member countries, the IMF, equipped with its expertise, is endowed with a natural advantage to act as the manager of its member countries’ reserves.

 

2. The centralized management of its member countries’ reserves by the Fund will be an effective measure to promote a greater role of the SDR as a reserve currency. To achieve this, the IMF can set up an open-ended SDR-denominated fund based on the market practice, allowing subscription and redemption in the existing reserve currencies by various investors as desired. This arrangement will not only promote the development of SDR-denominated assets, but also partially makes the management of the liquidity in the form of the existing reserve currencies possible. It can even lay a foundation for increasing SDR allocation to gradually replace existing reserve currencies with the SDR.

情人节快乐(2009-02-14 20:41)

  今天是个好日子,我们的情人节,大家的情人节,祝大家节日快乐。作为西方人的节日,它在中国的最大特点就是玫瑰百合价格翻番,巧克力卖翻天。吃着爱情蜜糖的男人们就自觉的伸长脖子来被宰吧。

  正好今天有朋友过来,上午陪他们在上海瞎跑了大半天,然后下午又去浦东办事弄了半天,走了不少路,累了个半死,回来后坐下来就不想挪位子了。

  下午顺路去称体重,还是那么居高不下,渐渐开始为自己的健康担心了。虽然每天中午都吃完饭去爬20多层楼,除了肚子稍微小了一点,体重却一点也没有变化。再这么下去,身体的负荷会越来越大,必须要采取一些有效措施了,保持健康是各方面工作生活的保障。

  新工作过了试用期,逐步步入正常的轨道了,每天的工作节奏也越来越快了,事情也变得多起来了,压力大也是好事,督促自己不能懒惰,每天也在不停的学习过程中。不断的加强学习,让自己变的更棒点。

  最后,再向朋友们说声幸福,快乐,也祝自己幸福,快乐!!!

 

 

奥巴马就职演说全文(2009-01-21 11:59)

亲爱的公民同胞们:

今天我站在这里,面对眼前的任务,深感卑微。感谢你们给予我的信任,我也清楚前辈们为这个国家所作的牺牲。我要感谢布什总统对国家的服务,感谢他在两届政府过渡期间给予的慷慨协作。

时至今日,已有44位美国总统宣誓就职。总统的宣誓有时面对的是国家的和平繁荣,有时面临的是狂风骤雨的紧张形势。在这种时刻,支持美国前进的不仅仅是领导人的能力和远见,更是美国人民对先驱者理想的坚定信仰,以及对美国建国宣言的忠诚。

过去是这样,我们这一代美国人也要如此。

我们都很清楚,我们正处于危机之中。我们的国家正在对触角广泛的暴力和仇恨网络宣战。国家的经济也受到了严重的削弱,这是一些人贪婪和不负责任的后果,但在做出艰难选择和准备迎接新时代方面,我们出现了集体性的失误。家园失去了;工作丢掉了;商业萧条了。我们的医疗卫生耗资巨大;我们的学校让许多人失望;每天都能找到更多的证据表明我们利用能源的方式使得对手更加强大,并且威胁到了我们整个星球。

这些,是从数据和统计中可以看到的危机信号。而更难以衡量但同样意义深远的是美国人自信心的丧失──现在一种认为美国衰落不可避免,我们的下一代必须降低期待的恐惧正在吞噬着我们的自信。

今天我要向你们说的是,我们面临的挑战是真实存在的。这些挑战很多,也很严重,它们不会轻易地或者在短时间内就得以克服。但记住这一点:美国终将渡过难关。

今天,我们聚集在这里,是因为我们选择了希望而不是恐惧,团结而不是冲突与争执。

今天,我们在这里宣布要为无谓的抱怨、不实的承诺和指责画上句号,我们要打破牵制美国政治发展的陈旧教条。

我们仍是一个年轻的国家,但借用《圣经》的话说,摒弃幼稚的时代已经来临。是时候重树我们坚韧的精神;选择我们更好的历史;弘扬那些珍贵的天赋和高尚的理念,并代代传承下去,即上帝赋予的信念:天下众生皆平等,众生皆自由,且均应有追求最大幸福的机会。

在重申我们国家伟大之处的同时,我们深知伟大从来不是上天赐予的,而是要靠我们努力争取。我们从不抄捷径,也不会退而求其次。我们的历程不属于那些胆怯懦弱、享受安逸或追逐名利之人。这条历程属于勇于承担风险者,属于实干家和创造者,他们中的一些人名留青史,但更多的人却在默默无闻地工作着。正是这些人带领我们走过了漫长崎岖的旅途,带领我们走向富强和自由。

为了我们,他们背起简单的行囊漂洋过海寻找新的生活;为了我们,先辈们忍辱负重,用血汗浇铸工厂;为了我们,他们在诸如(独立战争时的)康科德、(南北战争时的)葛底斯堡、(二战时的)诺曼底和(越南战争时的)溪山等地作战并献出生命。

一次又一次,我们的先辈们战斗着、牺牲着、操劳着,只为了给我们带来更美好的生活。在他们眼中,美国的强盛与伟大超越了个人雄心,也超越了个人的出身、贫富和派别差异。

 

Barack Obama's Inaugural Address
My fellow citizens:
I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition.
Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because We the People have remained faithful to the ideals of our forbearers, and true to our founding documents.
So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.
These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land - a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met.
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things. The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free, and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.
In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned. Our journey has never been one of short-cuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted - for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame. Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things - some celebrated but more often men and women obscure in their labor, who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.
For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life.
For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West; endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.
For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.
Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life. They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.
This is the journey we continue today. We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions - that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.
For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act - not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. And all this we will do.
Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions - who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans. Their memories are short. For they have forgotten what this country has already done; what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose, and necessity to courage.
What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them - that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long no longer apply. The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works - whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified. Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end. And those of us who manage the public’s dollars will be held to account - to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day - because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.
Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control - and that a nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous. The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our Gross Domestic Product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on our ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart - not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.
As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and that we are ready to lead once more.
Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.
We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations. We will begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people, and forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan. With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet. We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken; you cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.
For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus - and non-believers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth; and because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation, and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society’s ills on the West - know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.
To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds. And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to suffering outside our borders; nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains. They have something to tell us today, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages. We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service; a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves. And yet, at this moment - a moment that will define a generation - it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.
For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies. It is the kindness to take in a stranger when the levees break, the selflessness of workers who would rather cut their hours than see a friend lose their job which sees us through our darkest hours. It is the firefighter’s courage to storm a stairway filled with smoke, but also a parent’s willingness to nurture a child, that finally decides our fate.
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends - hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism - these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
This is the price and the promise of citizenship.
This is the source of our confidence - the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.
This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed - why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall, and why a man whose father less than sixty years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.
So let us mark this day with remembrance, of who we are and how far we have traveled. In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by dying campfires on the shores of an icy river. The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood. At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:
'Let it be told to the future world...that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive...that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet .'
America. In the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words. With hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come. Let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.


中国经济就像一个备受关注的优等生,哪次考试分数低于100就被认为考砸了。这不,政府刚刚公布中国9月份GDP增速降至9%“之低,全世界马上就喊感受到了中国经济放缓之痛。紧接着,中国连续两个月”出现财政赤字也引起了媒体的关注.

美国副财长麦考密克也来给中国加压,一顶“负责任参与者与盟友”的帽子送上来,除了希望让中国购买更多美国国债,另一层意思就是让中国加快经济增长,以免拖累美国经济。他的顶头上司鲍尔森说得更直白:当今世界比以往任何时候都更希望中国成为全球经济增长的主要贡献力量。妈妈的,什么意思,你们过得不好的时候就想起我们了,过的舒坦的时候怎么不谈谈带领我们共同富裕啊。


倒是也有人看得明白,摩根士丹利亚洲主席罗奇看得明白:中国仍然是一个相对贫穷的国家,中国因素对减弱当前危机的负面影响能起点作用,但起不了太大作用。所以首先世界别把中国看成救世主,中国除了能多买些美国国债其实对缓解其他国家的痛苦起不了太大作用,而且中国目前庞大的外乎储备拿来卖美元资产似乎风险太大,总不能让我们来转接别人的经济危机呀;其次中国也别太把自己当根葱了,天塌下来有高个子顶着呢,美国人又高又壮,他们肯定是先期的敢死队啦,我们愁什么啊。您这里又是上调出口退税,又是提振经济增长,难道亚洲金融危机期间死要面子活受罪的苦还没吃够?

既然选择了市场经济,就得接受经济发展有明显周期性这一现实,硬要让资本主义的树结社会主义的果只能自讨苦吃,违背经济规律的结果人人皆知。中国或许应该套里根当年遇刺后那句“Honey, I forgot to duck”来回应美国:蜜,哥们儿这回得蹲下了。

千万不要等(2008-10-18 12:58)
一、不要等到想要得到爱时才学会付出

人生就像一场戏,在等待中错过了美丽。正如歌中所唱:该出手时就出手。因为幸福就在你身边。当你付出时,爱以从你身边轻轻划过,留下的是悔恨、遗憾。

二、不要等到孤单时才想念起你的朋友

什么是朋友?真正的朋友永远不会离弃你。人生得一知己足矣,孤独时、彷徨时,朋友是你最忠实的听众,他们没有怨言,他们有的只是一颗包容的心。

三、不要等到有了职位时才去努力工作

有的人一生都在等自己如意的工作,待到白发之时方诲自己执著地等待。因为世界真的很精彩,只要你肯努力,处处都有你满意的工作。

四、不要等到失败时才记起他人的忠告

忠言逆耳利于行,良药苦口利于病。世人往往善于听信谗言,因为谗言总是美丽的,而忘了这句古话。待到自己失败时,一切如过眼云烟,烟消云散。

五、不要等到生病时才意识到生命脆弱

生命真的很脆弱,一只蚂蚁可能死在你的脚下,只不过你没有觉察。可能你在生命的边缘徘徊,为什么不珍惜自己的生命?

六、不要等到分离时后悔没有珍惜感情

为什么总是离别之后才懂得珍惜,因为人无完人,金无足赤。拥有一颗宽容的心,善待别人就等于善待自己。

七、不要等到有人赞赏你时才相信自己

每个人都有自己的优点和长处,自信有时也是成功的钥匙。要等到别人的赞赏,恐怕已经太迟了,因为生命属于你只有一次,没有循环,没有往复。

八、不要等到别人指出才知道自己错了

其实,勇于承认错误并没有人嘲笑你,反而得到别人的尊重。因为每个人都有错误,只不过有的人善于掩饰自己的错误,有的人勇于承认罢了。

九、不要等到腰缠万贯才准备帮助穷人

助人为乐永远是一种美德,待到腰缠万贯之时,你不一定会快乐,因为你的施舍别人不一定接受。

十、不要等到临死时才发现要热爱生活

生活真的很精彩,为什么要游戏人生。人生就像一条长河,永远没有尽头,没有止境。并不因为你的生老病死而改变。热爱生活就等于热爱自己。因为生命总要划上一个圆满的句号。

    8月8日的大谜底终于揭开了,奥林匹克终于打上了中国文化的烙印。很好,很奥运,这才是我们需要的奥林匹克,从奥林匹亚到万里长城,从爱琴海岸到华夏大地,从1896到2008,时间和空间的交错,让我们感慨万千。

    我从不恭维张艺谋是个好的电影导演,但是发现在这样一场万人大型晚会中,他的确是最适合的导演,他对于形状、色彩、色光电的运用,特别是调动成千上万群众的能力真TMD适合搞开幕式了。我说过,党的决策永远都是英明的,选他就是没问题的。

    我喜欢开幕式的颜色,很热烈的红色,很清纯的绿色,很悠远的蓝色,很辉煌的金色,当然还有,那些长在真人身上的莹莹光光的色彩。让我更升入的领会到了世界是五颜六色的。

    我喜欢开幕式的形状,很力量的正方形,很诗意的长方形,很哲学的圆形,还有,很全人类的地球形。我看到了很多伟大的形状。

    很好,很中国,很奥运,很中国文化,很中国历史,很中国气势,很中国尊严,很中国特色,很中国胸怀,很中国气魄~~~~~~~。我们终于有这样一个机会可以去用博大精深的文化积淀和历史背景告诉全世界我们上下五千年的尊严,在一个又一个超级现代化的手段中,足以晕死满足于激光的老外们。当威亚缓缓的把那幅山水画吊起来时,我觉得这是世界上最具宣传力的中国文化珍品,这是最珍贵的中国文化珍品,它理应被装裱起来挂进奥林匹亚殿堂之上,告诉全世界我们无与伦比的文化底蕴,是世界让任何国家都不能媲美的。你那些英美日法才好大岁数就跟祖宗辈的大中国较劲,你能比嘛,哈哈。

    喜欢汉字和阿拉伯数字同现的倒计时方式,这是开场后让我惊呆的地方,完全把我震撼了,我喜欢3000孔子弟子敲缶,那动静交错足以成为世界音响史上的经典,错觉这群书生们是受电脑控制才这么整齐划一的,而且天知道他是怎么想到要用当年秦王与赵王豪饮时的酒缸,天知道他怎么能想到把中国圣人教诲与现代音响结合在一起的,还满口的之乎者也,一句黄钟大吕的“有朋自远方来,不亦乐乎”就够老外们慢慢学到下届奥运会了,这可比“威尔康姆”更有音韵,更加时尚。

    整个文艺表演就是一幅展示中华文明的画卷,无不渗透着中国文化的绚烂,四大发明,古代丝绸之路~~~~~~一个小时太短了,它根本无法全方位的展示我们的悠久历史和灿烂文明。但是一个小时也足够了,因为一个小时的展示也足以让那些外国友人们震撼许久许久,叹为观止很久很久的时间,因为他们从来没有看过这么深邃的画卷,一幅让他们意犹未尽,深深折服的画卷。已经够了,完全够了。

    最好的点火仪式,既不是传说中凤还巢,也不是想象中的熊猫点火,他从远方跑来,向远方跑去,背后是一幅幅长长的奥林匹克和中华文化的画卷,李宁的体力真好,要是再年青十岁,完全就可以参加奥运男子八百米中长跑比赛。我想到了我们这个伟大的国家,一个5000多年悠久历史的文明古国,至今仍在不断的奔跑,不断的向前。

    在那一刻,我觉得做一个中国人真好,真自豪!

今天晚上去杜莎夫人蜡像馆参观了一下,照片拍了不少,贴出来让大家随便欣赏下。
传说中蜡像馆的人都挺像的,看了才知道还不是一般般的像,那是非常非常的像呀,我说的可是大实话呦,看看照片你就知道了,再不信你就得自己去新世界看看了。
精彩图片集哈,大家慢慢看,照片很多的。

中国的,世界的,被人家打破世界纪录的刘翔。

香港影帝梁家辉

问候世界首富盖茨

联手中国首富李嘉诚

不要拍我,其实也是个蜡像

牵手香港歌星陈慧琳

老谋子,学痞,我也会的

与容祖儿深情对唱

与那英联袂献唱

摸摸爱因斯坦的大脑,果然不一样

看看莎士比亚到底在写什么

领奖奥斯卡

接见美国前总统克林顿先生

邂逅音乐偶像猫王

大嗓门刘欢

这是艳照门中唯一未公开的照片

从师李小龙

与卓别林比幽默

奥黛丽赫本邀我共进晚餐

我是008

偷师冯小刚

我的相机pose没冯导的好

优哥,我看行!

驰骋F1赛场,红色的法拉利

与乔丹比肩

老虎伍兹跟我比杆法,不分伯仲啊!
胡立阳谈股市人生(2008-06-29 16:53)
1.不要听“亲朋好友”的话,他们只会让你成为“平凡人”。
2.不要只会“用功读书”,重要的是“要读对书”。
3.不要只是“努力工作”,重要的是“做对工作”。
4.不要只是结交“志趣相投”的朋友,否则你永远只看到“一半”的世界。
5.不要只是“安分守己”的等待升迁,要像下跳棋一样想办法“一步登天”。
6.不要只是“准备好了等机会”,主动“制造机会”才能捷足先登。
7.不要以为“钱不会从天上掉下来”,只是你必须“站在对的地方”接。
8.不要只会“正面思考”,要“逆向思考”,“不正常”的人才能出人头地。
9.在股市中,别人因为紧张而犯的每一个错误,都是在辛辛苦苦的为您累计财富。
海南归来(2008-06-15 09:03)

海南岛的大海美不待言,南中国海浩瀚雄伟而又不失妩媚,亚龙湾,三亚湾都是个看海的极好去处。

先看看照片再说吧。

这张我最喜欢,有人说像中央领导同志到海南视察工作一样意气风发。

玉带滩,这边是还那边是河,相连最窄处仅8米---吉尼斯世界纪录。

遥望官帽石

嬉水亚龙湾

鹤立大东海

海边,大肚子,漏点~~

巨浪拍来,毫不胆怯

我在天涯海角处

元旦到了!(2007-12-27 11:30)
     整整一个月没有更新东西,不是偷懒,或许是因为最近的确比较忙,可其实也不知道自己在忙什么,可就是感觉自己没怎么闲着,所以也就没什么闲情雅致来敲敲键盘记录点滴.临近元旦,怎么也得写点东西增加点点击率嘛。

    最近看了三部新年贺岁大片,《色戒》,《投名状》和《集结号》。看完《色戒》之后是觉得女人不可靠,看完《投名状》之后是又觉得兄弟不可靠,再看完《集结号》之后更觉得组织不可靠了。在这个充满否定和怀疑的贺岁时节,究竟什么东西可以让人们去相信,现在的人已经开始越来越否定自己。

    元旦假快到了,我想回去好好休息几天,好好的陪陪爸爸妈妈,再加上能吃到妈妈可口的菜肴和饺子,让我特别的期待,不过再忍耐两天就行了。

    再过几天就是新的一年了,希望自己在新的一年里能有所作为,要么不为,要么就必须有所为。