此次金融危机的爆发与蔓延使我们再次面对一个古老而悬而未决的问题,那就是什么样的国际储备货币才能保持全球金融稳定、促进世界经济发展。历史上的银本位、金本位、金汇兑本位、布雷顿森林体系都是解决该问题的不同制度安排,这也是国际货币基金组织(IMF)成立的宗旨之一。但此次金融危机表明,这一问题不仅远未解决,由于现行国际货币体系的内在缺陷反而愈演愈烈。
理论上讲,国际储备货币的币值首先应有一个稳定的基准和明确的发行规则以保证供给的有序;其次,其供给总量还可及时、灵活地根据需求的变化进行增减调节;第三,这种调节必须是超脱于任何一国的经济状况和利益。当前以主权信用货币作为主要国际储备货币是历史上少有的特例。此次危机再次警示我们,必须创造性地改革和完善现行国际货币体系,推动国际储备货币向着币值稳定、供应有序、总量可调的方向完善,才能从根本上维护全球经济金融稳定。
一、此次金融危机的爆发并在全球范围内迅速蔓延,反映出当前国际货币体系的内在缺陷和系统性风险
对于储备货币发行国而言,国内货币政策目标与各国对储备货币的要求经常产生矛盾。货币当局既不能忽视本国货币的国际职能而单纯考虑国内目标,又无法同时兼顾国内外的不同目标。既可能因抑制本国通胀的需要而无法充分满足全球经济不断增长的需求,也可能因过分刺激国内需求而导致全球流动性泛滥。理论上特里芬难题仍然存在,即储备货币发行国无法在为世界提供流动性的同时确保币值的稳定。
当一国货币成为全世界初级产品定价货币、贸易结算货币和储备货币后,该国对经济失衡的汇率调整是无效的,因为多数国家货币都以该国货币为参照。经济全球化既受益于一种被普遍接受的储备货币,又为发行这种货币的制度缺陷所害。从布雷顿森林体系解体后金融危机屡屡发生且愈演愈烈来看,全世界为现行货币体系付出的代价可能会超出从中的收益。不仅储备货币的使用国要付出沉重的代价,发行国也在付出日益增大的代价。危机未必是储备货币发行当局的故意,但却是制度性缺陷的必然。
二、创造一种与主权国家脱钩、并能保持币值长期稳定的国际储备货币,从而避免主权信用货币作为储备货币的内在缺陷,是国际货币体系改革的理想目标
1、超主权储备货币的主张虽然由来以久,但至今没有实质性进展。上世纪四十年代凯恩斯就曾提出采用30种有代表性的商品作为定值基础建立国际货币单位“Bancor”的设想,遗憾的是未能实施,而其后以怀特方案为基础的布雷顿森林体系的崩溃显示凯恩斯的方案可能更有远见。早在布雷顿森林体系的缺陷暴露之初,基金组织就于1969年创设了特别提款权(下称SDR),以缓解主权货币作为储备货币的内在风险。遗憾的是由于分配机制和使用范围上的限制,SDR的作用至今没有能够得到充分发挥。但SDR的存在为国际货币体系改革提供了一线希望。
2、超主权储备货币不仅克服了主权信用货币的内在风险,也为调节全球流动性提供了可能。由一个全球性机构管理的国际储备货币将使全球流动性的创造和调控成为可能,当一国主权货币不再做为全球贸易的尺度和参照基准时,该国汇率政策对失衡的调节效果会大大增强。这些能极大地降低未来危机发生的风险、增强危机处理的能力。
三、改革应从大处着眼,小处着手,循序渐进,寻求共赢
重建具有稳定的定值基准并为各国所接受的新储备货币可能是个长期内才能实现的目标。建立凯恩斯设想的国际货币单位更是人类的大胆设想,并需要各国政治家拿出超凡的远见和勇气。而在短期内,国际社会特别是基金组织至少应当承认并正视现行体制所造成的风险,对其不断监测、评估并及时预警。
同时还应特别考虑充分发挥SDR的作用。SDR具有超主权储备货币的特征和潜力。同时它的扩大发行有利于基金组织克服在经费、话语权和代表权改革方面所面临的困难。因此,应当着力推动SDR的分配。这需要各成员国政治上的积极配合,特别是应尽快通过1997年第四次章程修订及相应的SDR分配决议,以使1981年后加入的成员国也能享受到SDR的好处。在此基础上考虑进一步扩大SDR的发行。
SDR的使用范围需要拓宽,从而能真正满足各国对储备货币的要求。
●建立起SDR与其他货币之间的清算关系。改变当前SDR只能用于政府或国际组织之间国际结算的现状,使其能成为国际贸易和金融交易公认的支付手段。
●积极推动在国际贸易、大宗商品定价、投资和企业记账中使用SDR计价。不仅有利于加强SDR的作用,也能有效减少因使用主权储备货币计价而造成的资产价格波动和相关风险。
●积极推动创立SDR计值的资产,增强其吸引力。基金组织正在研究SDR计值的有价证券,如果推行将是一个好的开端。
●进一步完善SDR的定值和发行方式。SDR定值的篮子货币范围应扩大到世界主要经济大国,也可将GDP作为权重考虑因素之一。此外,为进一步提升市场对其币值的信心,SDR的发行也可从人为计算币值向有以实际资产支持的方式转变,可以考虑吸收各国现有的储备货币以作为其发行准备。
四、由基金组织集中管理成员国的部分储备,不仅有利于增强国际社会应对危机、维护国际货币金融体系稳定的能力,更是加强SDR作用的有力手段
1、由一个值得信任的国际机构将全球储备资金的一部分集中起来管理,并提供合理的回报率吸引各国参与,将比各国的分散使用、各自为战更能有效地发挥储备资金的作用,对投机和市场恐慌起到更强的威慑与稳定效果。对于参与各国而言,也有利于减少所需的储备,节省资金用于发展和增长。基金组织成员众多,同时也是全球唯一以维护货币和金融稳定为职责,并能对成员国宏观经济政策实施监督的国际机构,具备相应的专业特长,由其管理成员国储备具有天然的优势。
2、基金组织集中管理成员国储备,也将是推动SDR作为储备货币发挥更大作用的有力手段。基金组织可考虑按市场化模式形成开放式基金,将成员国以现有储备货币积累的储备集中管理,设定以SDR计值的基金单位,允许各投资者使用现有储备货币自由认购,需要时再赎回所需的储备货币,既推动了SDR 计值资产的发展,也部分实现了对现有储备货币全球流动性的调控,甚至可以作为增加SDR发行、逐步替换现有储备货币的基础。
The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world confronted us with the long existing but still unanswered question, i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above issue, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system.
Theoretically, an international reserve currency should first be anchored to a stable benchmark and issued according to a clear set of rules, therefore to ensure orderly supply; second, its supply should be flexible enough to allow timely adjustment according to the changing demand; third, such adjustments should be disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country. The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history. The crisis called again for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability.
I. The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system.
Issuing countries of reserve currencies are constantly confronted with the dilemma between achieving their domestic monetary policy goals and meeting other countries’ demand for reserve currencies. On the one hand,the monetary authorities can not simply focus on domestic goals without carrying out their international responsibilities;on the other hand,they cannot pursue different domestic and international objectives at the same time. They may either fail to adequately meet the demand of a growing global economy for liquidity as they tries to ease inflation pressures at home, or create excess liquidity in the global markets by overly stimulating domestic demand. The Triffin Dilemma, i.e., the issuing countries of reserve currencies can not maintain the value of the reserve currencies while providing liquidity to the world, still exists.
When a national currency is used in pricing primary commodities, trade settlements and is adopted as a reserve currency globally, efforts of the monetary authority issuing such a currency to address its economic imbalances by adjusting exchange rate would be made in vain, as its currency serves as a benchmark for many other currencies. While benefiting from a widely accepted reserve currency, the globalization also suffers from the flaws of such a system. The frequency and increasing intensity of financial crises following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system suggests the costs of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits. The price is becoming increasingly higher, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws.
II. The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.
1. Though the super-sovereign reserve currency has long since been proposed, yet no substantive progress has been achieved to date. Back to the 1940s, Keynes had already proposed to introduce an international currency unit named “Bancor”, based on the value of 30 representative commodities. Unfortunately, the proposal was not accepted. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which was based on the White approach, indicates that the Keynesian approach may be more farsighted. The IMF also created the SDR in 1969, when the defects of the Bretton Woods system initially emerged, to mitigate the inherent risks sovereign reserve currencies caused. Yet, the role of the SDR has not been put into full play due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses. However, it serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system.
2. A super-sovereign reserve currency not only eliminates the inherent risks of credit-based sovereign currency, but also makes it possible to manage global liquidity. A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity. And when a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.
III. The reform should be guided by a grand vision and start with specific deliverables. It should be a gradual process that yields win-win results for all
The reestablishment of a new and widely accepted reserve currency with a stable valuation benchmark may take a long time. The creation of an international currency unit, based on the Keynesian proposal, is a bold initiative that requires extraordinary political vision and courage. In the short run, the international community, particularly the IMF, should at least recognize and face up to the risks resulting from the existing system, conduct regular monitoring and assessment and issue timely early warnings.
Special consideration should be given to give the SDR a greater role. The SDR has the features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency. Moreover, an increase in SDR allocation would help the Fund address its resources problem and the difficulties in the voice and representation reform. Therefore, efforts should be made to push forward a SDR allocation. This will require political cooperation among member countries. Specifically, the Fourth Amendment to the Articles of Agreement and relevant resolution on SDR allocation proposed in 1997 should be approved as soon as possible so that members joined the Fund after 1981 could also share the benefits of the SDR. On the basis of this, considerations could be given to further increase SDR allocation.
The scope of using SDR should be broadened, so as to enable it to fully satisfy the member countries’ demand for a reserve currency.
Ⅳ. Entrusting part of the member countries’ reserve to the centralized management of the IMF will not only enhance the international community’s ability to address the crisis and maintain the stability of the international monetary and financial system, but also significantly strengthen the role of the SDR.
1. Compared with separate management of reserves by individual countries, the centralized management of part of the global reserve by a trustworthy international institution with a reasonable return to encourage participation will be more effective in deterring speculation and stabilizing financial markets. The participating countries can also save some reserve for domestic development and economic growth. With its universal membership, its unique mandate of maintaining monetary and financial stability, and as an international “supervisor” on the macroeconomic policies of its member countries, the IMF, equipped with its expertise, is endowed with a natural advantage to act as the manager of its member countries’ reserves.
2. The centralized management of its member countries’ reserves by the Fund will be an effective measure to promote a greater role of the SDR as a reserve currency. To achieve this, the IMF can set up an open-ended SDR-denominated fund based on the market practice, allowing subscription and redemption in the existing reserve currencies by various investors as desired. This arrangement will not only promote the development of SDR-denominated assets, but also partially makes the management of the liquidity in the form of the existing reserve currencies possible. It can even lay a foundation for increasing SDR allocation to gradually replace existing reserve currencies with the SDR.
|
标签:情感 |
亲爱的公民同胞们:
今天我站在这里,面对眼前的任务,深感卑微。感谢你们给予我的信任,我也清楚前辈们为这个国家所作的牺牲。我要感谢布什总统对国家的服务,感谢他在两届政府过渡期间给予的慷慨协作。
时至今日,已有44位美国总统宣誓就职。总统的宣誓有时面对的是国家的和平繁荣,有时面临的是狂风骤雨的紧张形势。在这种时刻,支持美国前进的不仅仅是领导人的能力和远见,更是美国人民对先驱者理想的坚定信仰,以及对美国建国宣言的忠诚。
过去是这样,我们这一代美国人也要如此。
我们都很清楚,我们正处于危机之中。我们的国家正在对触角广泛的暴力和仇恨网络宣战。国家的经济也受到了严重的削弱,这是一些人贪婪和不负责任的后果,但在做出艰难选择和准备迎接新时代方面,我们出现了集体性的失误。家园失去了;工作丢掉了;商业萧条了。我们的医疗卫生耗资巨大;我们的学校让许多人失望;每天都能找到更多的证据表明我们利用能源的方式使得对手更加强大,并且威胁到了我们整个星球。
这些,是从数据和统计中可以看到的危机信号。而更难以衡量但同样意义深远的是美国人自信心的丧失──现在一种认为美国衰落不可避免,我们的下一代必须降低期待的恐惧正在吞噬着我们的自信。
今天我要向你们说的是,我们面临的挑战是真实存在的。这些挑战很多,也很严重,它们不会轻易地或者在短时间内就得以克服。但记住这一点:美国终将渡过难关。
今天,我们聚集在这里,是因为我们选择了希望而不是恐惧,团结而不是冲突与争执。
今天,我们在这里宣布要为无谓的抱怨、不实的承诺和指责画上句号,我们要打破牵制美国政治发展的陈旧教条。
我们仍是一个年轻的国家,但借用《圣经》的话说,摒弃幼稚的时代已经来临。是时候重树我们坚韧的精神;选择我们更好的历史;弘扬那些珍贵的天赋和高尚的理念,并代代传承下去,即上帝赋予的信念:天下众生皆平等,众生皆自由,且均应有追求最大幸福的机会。
在重申我们国家伟大之处的同时,我们深知伟大从来不是上天赐予的,而是要靠我们努力争取。我们从不抄捷径,也不会退而求其次。我们的历程不属于那些胆怯懦弱、享受安逸或追逐名利之人。这条历程属于勇于承担风险者,属于实干家和创造者,他们中的一些人名留青史,但更多的人却在默默无闻地工作着。正是这些人带领我们走过了漫长崎岖的旅途,带领我们走向富强和自由。
为了我们,他们背起简单的行囊漂洋过海寻找新的生活;为了我们,先辈们忍辱负重,用血汗浇铸工厂;为了我们,他们在诸如(独立战争时的)康科德、(南北战争时的)葛底斯堡、(二战时的)诺曼底和(越南战争时的)溪山等地作战并献出生命。
一次又一次,我们的先辈们战斗着、牺牲着、操劳着,只为了给我们带来更美好的生活。在他们眼中,美国的强盛与伟大超越了个人雄心,也超越了个人的出身、贫富和派别差异。
|
标签:财经 |
中国经济就像一个备受关注的优等生,哪次考试分数低于100就被认为考砸了。这不,政府刚刚公布中国9月份GDP增速降至9%“之低”,全世界马上就喊感受到了中国经济放缓之痛。紧接着,中国“连续两个月”出现财政赤字也引起了媒体的关注.
美国副财长麦考密克也来给中国加压,一顶“负责任参与者与盟友”的帽子送上来,除了希望让中国购买更多美国国债,另一层意思就是让中国加快经济增长,以免拖累美国经济。他的顶头上司鲍尔森说得更直白:当今世界比以往任何时候都更希望中国成为全球经济增长的主要贡献力量。妈妈的,什么意思,你们过得不好的时候就想起我们了,过的舒坦的时候怎么不谈谈带领我们共同富裕啊。
倒是也有人看得明白,摩根士丹利亚洲主席罗奇看得明白:中国仍然是一个相对贫穷的国家,中国因素对减弱当前危机的负面影响能起点作用,但起不了太大作用。所以首先世界别把中国看成救世主,中国除了能多买些美国国债其实对缓解其他国家的痛苦起不了太大作用,而且中国目前庞大的外乎储备拿来卖美元资产似乎风险太大,总不能让我们来转接别人的经济危机呀;其次中国也别太把自己当根葱了,天塌下来有高个子顶着呢,美国人又高又壮,他们肯定是先期的敢死队啦,我们愁什么啊。您这里又是上调出口退税,又是提振经济增长,难道亚洲金融危机期间死要面子活受罪的苦还没吃够?
既然选择了市场经济,就得接受经济发展有明显周期性这一现实,硬要让资本主义的树结社会主义的果只能自讨苦吃,违背经济规律的结果人人皆知。中国或许应该套里根当年遇刺后那句“Honey, I forgot to
duck”来回应美国:蜜,哥们儿这回得蹲下了。
人生就像一场戏,在等待中错过了美丽。正如歌中所唱:该出手时就出手。因为幸福就在你身边。当你付出时,爱以从你身边轻轻划过,留下的是悔恨、遗憾。
二、不要等到孤单时才想念起你的朋友
什么是朋友?真正的朋友永远不会离弃你。人生得一知己足矣,孤独时、彷徨时,朋友是你最忠实的听众,他们没有怨言,他们有的只是一颗包容的心。
三、不要等到有了职位时才去努力工作
有的人一生都在等自己如意的工作,待到白发之时方诲自己执著地等待。因为世界真的很精彩,只要你肯努力,处处都有你满意的工作。
四、不要等到失败时才记起他人的忠告
忠言逆耳利于行,良药苦口利于病。世人往往善于听信谗言,因为谗言总是美丽的,而忘了这句古话。待到自己失败时,一切如过眼云烟,烟消云散。
五、不要等到生病时才意识到生命脆弱
生命真的很脆弱,一只蚂蚁可能死在你的脚下,只不过你没有觉察。可能你在生命的边缘徘徊,为什么不珍惜自己的生命?
六、不要等到分离时后悔没有珍惜感情
为什么总是离别之后才懂得珍惜,因为人无完人,金无足赤。拥有一颗宽容的心,善待别人就等于善待自己。
七、不要等到有人赞赏你时才相信自己
每个人都有自己的优点和长处,自信有时也是成功的钥匙。要等到别人的赞赏,恐怕已经太迟了,因为生命属于你只有一次,没有循环,没有往复。
八、不要等到别人指出才知道自己错了
其实,勇于承认错误并没有人嘲笑你,反而得到别人的尊重。因为每个人都有错误,只不过有的人善于掩饰自己的错误,有的人勇于承认罢了。
九、不要等到腰缠万贯才准备帮助穷人
助人为乐永远是一种美德,待到腰缠万贯之时,你不一定会快乐,因为你的施舍别人不一定接受。
十、不要等到临死时才发现要热爱生活
生活真的很精彩,为什么要游戏人生。人生就像一条长河,永远没有尽头,没有止境。并不因为你的生老病死而改变。热爱生活就等于热爱自己。因为生命总要划上一个圆满的句号。
|
标签:财经 |
|
标签:旅游 |
|
标签:休闲 |