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对话 Al Brooks (二)

(2011-12-28 16:38:37)
标签:

杂谈

分类: 外汇交易

Preface

前言

 

My goals in writing this book are to describe my understanding of why the trades in Figure P.I offer great risk-reward ratios, and to present ways to profit from setups like these in both stocks and futures trading. The most important message that I can deliver is to focus on the absolute best trades, avoid the absolute worst setups, and work on increasing the number of shares that you are trading. I freely recognize that every one of my reasons behind each setup is just my opinion and my reasoning about why a trade works might be completely wrong. However, that is irrelevant. What is important is that reading price action is a very effective way to trade, and I have thought a lot about why certain things happen the way that they do. I am comfortable with my explanations, and they give me confidence when I place a trade, but they are irrelevant to my placing trades, so it is not important to me that they are right. Just as I can reverse my opinion about the direction of the market in an instant, I can also reverse my opinion about why a particular pattern works if I come across a reason that is more logical or if I discover a flaw in my logic. I am providing the opinions because they appear to make sense, and they may help readers become more comfortable trading certain setups and because they may be intellectually stimulating, but they are not needed for any price action trades.

 

写这本书的目的,是想要讲述我所理解的在下图(图1)中进行的那些交易为什么会拥有极佳风险-报酬比率,以及在股票和期货交易里,如何从类似的进场模式中赚钱。我可能给出的最重要的信息,就是聚焦于完美的交易,避免糟糕的交易,并逐渐增加仓位规模。坦白地说,我给出的每个进场模式背后的原因,都只是我的个人看法,而且,那些使我认为这个进场模式正确有效的理由也许完全是错误的。不管如何,这些都没有关系。真正重要的是,阅读价格行为是进行交易非常有效的方式。面对图表上变来变去的价格形态,我对它们为什么会这样发展有很多猜想,我给出的解释让我自己满意,并让我在下单交易时充满信心。但这些解释和我已经下单的交易无关,因此,一旦交易开始,它们对或不对,对我而言就无关紧要了。就像我可以随时改变对市场将向哪个方向运行的看法一样,我也可以随时改变我对某种特定价格形态为什么有效所持的看法,只要我找到了更合逻辑的理由,或者在我原来的逻辑中发现了瑕疵。我愿意这里谈我的看法,只因这让我对交易更有感觉,也可帮助读者在按照某种特定的进场模式进行交易时心里感到踏实,还因为这也许是一种智力挑战,但这个理由可完全和按照价格行为所进行交易无关。

评:Al Brooks比他的粉丝们客观,他知道他的看法只属于他个人,并不是金科玉律。从这里也可以看出,Al Brooks显然是把入场和持仓当成了两件事来处理,他只要求做到入场有据,却并不认为这一所据之“因”必然达成某种预期之“果”,换言之,就是交易具有强烈的不确定性。一旦建立仓位,就让这单交易顺其自然的发展,要么被止损,要么在出现相反的交易方向信号时离场。这与后文中谈到的随时可以改变对行情发展方向的认识一脉相承。他明白信心只对开始交易有效,而不能用于对已有仓位的管理,当市场情况有变时,就不可再坚守当初决定入场时的理由,而应即时改变看法以应对市场的改变。由此,那些在谈到PA时总是讲其必然性的言论可以休矣。市场的发展,只有可能性,没有必然性。那些“如果怎么就必然会怎样”的所谓圣杯式交易方法传授,只能显示出传授者的浅薄。

对话 <wbr>Al <wbr>Brooks <wbr>(二)

FIGURE P. 1 AAPL, Daily Chart through June 10, 2008 (This chart with trend lines added is also in the final chapter, along with the explanations behind each trade.)

1AAPL,到2008610日的日线图 (这张带有趋势线的图表在最后的章节中仍会出现,届时会附有对每一笔交易的解释)

 

The book is a comprehensive guide to understanding price action and is directed toward sophisticated traders and market professionals. However, the concepts are useful to traders at all levels. It uses many of the standard techniques described by Edwards and Magee and many others, but will focus more on individual bars to demonstrate how the information they provide can significantly enhance the risk-reward ratio of trading. Most books point out three or four trades on a chart, which implies that everything else on the chart is incomprehensible, meaningless, or risky. I believe that there is something to be learned from every tick that takes place during the day and that there are far more great trades on every chart than just the few obvious ones, but to see them, you have to understand price action, and you cannot dismiss any bars as unimportant. I learned from performing thousands of operations through a microscope that some of the most important things can be very small.

 

这本书是写给经验丰富的交易者和专业交易者的一本关于价格行为的综合指南。对于其它层面的交易者,它讲到的概念同样有用。书中用到了爱德华特(Edward)和梅吉(Magee)以及其它人讲过的很多标准分析技术,但更聚焦于研究单根K线,以揭示它提供的信息可以如何用来明显提高交易的风险-报酬比率。很多书里都会在一张图表上给出34个交易点,那似乎是说图表的其它部分对交易而言是不可知的、无意义的、高风险的。我则认为,一天中价格的每一个跳动都有其值得研究之处,一张图表中蕴含的极有价值的交易机会也比那几个明显的交易点多得多的,但要找到它们,你必须理解价格行为,你不能把任何一根K线视为无意义忽略不计。我从无数在显微镜下进行的操作中学习到,很多非常重要的东西,初看起来都不太起眼。

 

I read charts bar by bar and look for any information that each bar is telling me. They are all important. At the end of every bar, most traders ask themselves, "What just took place?" With most bars, they conclude that it is just too confusing to understand and choose to wait for a pattern that they recognize. It is as if they believe that the bar did not exist, or they dismiss it as just institutional program activity that is not tradable by an individual trader. They do not feel as though they are part of the market at these times, but these times constitute the vast majority of the day. Yet, if they look at the volume, all of those bars that they are ignoring have as much volume as the bars they are using for the bases for their trades. Clearly, a lot of trading is taking place, but they don't understand how that can be, and essentially they pretend that it does not exist. But that is denying reality. There is always trading taking place, and as a trader you owe it to yourself to understand why it's taking place and to figure out a way to make money off it. Learning what the market is telling you is very time consuming and difficult, but it gives you the foundation that you need to be a successful trader.

 

我分析图表时,对每一根K线都认真研究,希望能弄明白它们所包含的市场信息。对我而言,它们都很重要。面对一根刚完成的K线,许多交易者会问:“刚才发生了什么?”大多数情况下,他们从中找到的都只是迷惑。他们选择继续观望,等待可以看明白的形态出现,好像这些看不明白的K线从不存在,或者只是机构交易者的程序化运作,而不是个体交易者介入的机会。他们此时似乎感觉不到自己也是这个市场的组成部分。一天之中,绝大部分时间都是如此过去。但是,如果他们观察一下交易量,就会发现那些被他们忽视的K线,和他们用做交易基础的K线的交易量一样多。很显然,交易一直都在进行,只是他们搞不懂这些交易背后的理由,就装作这些交易从来都不存在。这显然昧于现实。每时每刻,市场上都有交易在发生,作为一个交易者,你应该弄明白它们是基于什么理由而进行的,并尽力找出从中赚钱的方法。市场一直都在讲述着一些故事,要弄明白市场所讲述的东西确实费时而困难,但要成为一个成功交易者,这却是必须的基础。

 

Unlike most books on candle charts where the majority of readers feel compelled to memorize patterns, this book will provide a rationale for why particular patterns are reliable setups for traders. Some of the terms used have specific meaning to market technicians but different meanings to traders and I am writing this entirely from a trader's perspective. I am certain that many traders already understand everything in this book, but likely wouldn't describe price action in the same way that I do. There are no secrets among successful traders, and they all know common setups, and many have their own names for each one. All of them are buying and selling pretty much at the same time, catching the same swings, and each has his own reasons for getting into a trade. Many trade price action intuitively without ever feeling a need to articulate why a certain setup works. I hope that they enjoy reading my understanding of and perspective on price action and that this gives them some insights that will improve their already successful trading.

 

和大多数关于K线图表的书不同,这本书不需要读者死记硬背图表形态,而是给出合理的解释,以说明每种特定图表形态为什么是可靠的进场模式。有些东西在市场技术分析中有特定的意义,但在交易者那里却有不同认识,我会完全从交易者的角度来写它们。我相信很多交易者都已经明白这本书所讲的所有内容,只是他们描述价格行为的方式与我不一样而已。在成功的交易者之间没有秘密,他们都知道通行的进场模式,而且对每种进场模式都有自己的命名。他们在差不多同时进场买入或卖出,抓住同样的波段,各有其进场交易的理由。他们中的很多人直观地对价格行为做出反应进行交易,并不需要明辨这一进场模式为什么会有效。我希望他们读一下我对价格行为的理解和分析,这可以让他们对价格行为有进一步的认识,有助于他们把已经很成功的交易做得更好。

评:这里,Al Brooks也谈到了不同的分析方法可以达致相同的交易决策,这种殊途同归源于对市场的本质认识,即对市场的价格做出合理的反应,不管你是用什么方法来理解价格的运动。这一点倒很像本人喜欢谈的“得意忘形”,不要被过于具体的方法或形态所局限,而应去深究价格行为背后所蕴含的深层驱动因素为何。

 

The goal for most traders is to maximize trading profits through a style that is compatible with their personalities. Without that compatibility, I believe that it is virtually impossible to trade profitably long term. Many traders wonder how long it will take them to be successful and are willing to lose money for some period of time, even a few years. However, it took me over 10 years to be able to trade successfully. Each of us has many considerations and distractions, so the time will vary, but a trader has to work though most obstacles before becoming consistently profitable. I had several major problems that had to be corrected, including raising three wonderful daughters who always filled my mind with thoughts of them and what I needed to be doing as their father. That was solved as they got older and more independent. Then it took me a long time to accept many personality traits as real and unchangeable (or at least I concluded that I was unwilling to change them). And finally there was the issue of confidence. I have always been confident to the point of arrogant in so many things that those who know me would be surprised that this was difficult for me. However, deep inside I believed that I really would never come up with a consistently profitable approach that I would enjoy employing for many years. Instead, I bought many systems, wrote and tested countless indicators and systems, read many books and magazines, went to seminars, hired tutors, joined chat rooms, and talked with people who presented themselves as successful traders, but I never saw their account statements and suspect that most could teach but few if any could trade. Usually in trading, those who know don't talk, and those who talk don't know.

 

大多数交易者的目标,都是找到与他们个性相匹配的交易方式,以使交易利润最大化。我相信,如果没有这种匹配,长期获利基本是不可能的。很多交易者都想知道需要花多长时间才能成为成功的交易者,也愿意在为段时间赔钱交学费,就算这需要几年时间也撑得住。我花了差不多10年时间,才能够成功交易。每个人都有不同的思考方式和焦虑,所以,这段时间的长短也因为人而异。每一个交易者都必须跨越很多障碍,才能开始稳定获利。我曾有不少必须面对的大问题,包括要养三个正在成长的可爱的女儿,我经常满脑子地想着她们,以及作为一个父亲应该为她们做些什么。随着她们渐渐长大,越来越独立,这个问题才慢慢消失。接下来我还必须面对许多真实不可改变的个性特质(或者至少说是我不太愿意改变),最后,就是信心的问题。在那些了解我的人看来,我这个人在很多事情上相当自负甚至傲慢,他们很难相信,信心对于我来说也会是个问题。事实上,我曾深深地感到自己永远不会达到稳定获利的目标,所以宁愿老老实实给人打工。这样的状态持续了很多年。我买了很多交易系统,编写并测试了数不清的技术指标和交易系统,读了很多有关的书和杂志,我参加培训班,找导师,参加关于交易的聊天室,与那些自称是成功交易者的人交谈,但我从来没看过他们的交易纪录,我猜他们很多人都是可以当教练,但很少可以进行真正的交易。通常,真正懂行的人不多说,多说的人不真懂行。

评:Al Brooks行文的跳跃和逻辑的混乱这段文字里表现得最明显,虽然可以明白他想说些什么,但至少从表面看来,他前言不搭后语得非常严重,省略了太多过渡性的文字。另外,如果真的认为懂者不言言者不懂,他又何必写这本书?说到根本上,这是江湖上自大与贬低同行的习气使然。别人说太多时就是言者不懂,只有自己才是真正的内行并有资格向人说教。这习气还真是世界通行,不独中国有“文人相轻”。对Al Brooks类似的贬低其它分析方法独尊自己分析技术的文字,也应该看看就好,不要太当真。毕竟,我们看这本书,是因为它还是有其独特价值,在重视市场细节的问题上有独到之处,不必过意着眼于Al Brooks的自负和傲慢。

 

This was all extremely helpful because it showed all of the things that I needed to avoid before becoming successful. Any nontrader who looks at a chart will invariably conclude that trading has to be extremely easy, and that is part of the appeal. At the end of the day, anyone can look at any chart and see very clear entry and exit points. However, it is much more difficult to do in real time. There is a natural tendency to want to buy the exact low and never have the trade come back. If it does, a novice will take the loss to avoid a bigger loss, resulting in a series of losing trades that will ultimately bust his account. Using wide stops solves that to some extent, but invariably a trader will soon hit a few big losses that will put him into the red and make him too scared to continue using that approach.

   

在这个过程里发生的这些事情对我而言非常有用,因为它们告诉我要成为一个成功交易者,就必须避免哪些东西。任何一个从不进行交易的人观察一张图表,都会得出结论,认为交易是非常容易的事,这显然是个假象。当一天结束之后,任何人看着这天的图表,都可以指出非常清晰的入场点和出场点。但必须知道,在实时交易中做到这点,真的非常困难。人都有一种想买在最低点的天性,并且指望着进场之后市场就再也不会向相反的方向走。正因如此,新手常常会迅速认赔出场以避免更大的损失,造成一系列的亏损并最终亏掉全部。使用较宽的止损,能在一定程度上解决这个问题,但难免很快遇上几次大止损被触发的情况,以致账面大亏,他们以后就再不敢用同样的方法。

评:Al Brooks在这里似乎又开始跳针了,他讲的几件事似乎不构成能说明什么道理的逻辑链。他也未揭示所提出问题的如何形成,更没给出解决途径。

 

Why do so many business schools continue to recommend Edwards and Magee when their book is essentially simplistic, largely using trend lines, breakouts, and pullbacks as the basis for trading? They do so because the system works, and it always has, and it always will. Now that just about all traders have computers with access to intraday data, many of those techniques can be adapted to day trading. Also, candle charts give additional information about who is controlling the market, which results in a more timely entry with smaller risk. Edwards and Magee's focus is on the overall trend. I use those same basic techniques but pay much closer attention to the individual bars on the chart to improve the risk-reward ratio, and I devote considerable attention to intraday charts.

 

爱德华特和梅吉的书,内容似乎非常简单,大部分都是以趋势线、突破、回撤作为交易的基础,为什么那么多贸易学校仍然推荐使用呢?就是因为这些技术有效,它们过去一直有效,今后也将一直有效。现在所有的交易者都有了自己的电脑,可以得到即时日内交易数据,让他们可以把很多分析技术用到日内交易里。同时,蜡烛图可以给出更多信息,揭示多头与空头中的哪一方正在主导市场,这可给出更多风险较小的交易机会。爱德华特和梅吉更关注整体趋势。我用同样的基本技术方法,但更关注图表中单支的K线,以提高风险-报酬比率,而且我把大部分的关注都放在日内图表上。

 

It seemed obvious to me that if one could simply read the charts well enough to be able to enter at the exact times that the move would take off and not come back, then that trader would have a huge advantage. He would have a high winning percentage and the few losses would be small. I decided that this would be my starting point, and what I discovered was that nothing had to be added. In fact, any additions are distractions that result in lower profitability. This sounds so obvious and easy that it is difficult for most people to believe.

   

在我看来,非常明显地,一个人只要阅读简单的图表,真正读懂,并能够根据对图表的理解在精确的时间点进入交易,这个时间点就是行情即将启动、并且一旦启动就不会再返回的那一刻,那么,这个交易者就拥有巨大的优势,他将拥有非常高的风险-报酬比率,就算偶尔发生亏损,亏损额也都极小。我把这种研究当成我的出发点,同时也发现没什么其它东西必须加到图表上面来。事实上,在图表上增加的东西只会让人心烦意思乱,让获利的可能变低。这听起来很明显也容易理解,但对大多数人来说,却是很难相信。

 

I am a day trader who relies entirely on price action on the intraday Emini S&P 500 Futures (the "Emini") charts, and I believe that reading price action well is an invaluable skill for all traders. Beginners often instead have a deep-seated belief that something more is required, that maybe some complex mathematical formula that very few use would give them just the edge that they need. Goldman Sachs is so rich and sophisticated that they must have a supercomputer and high-powered software that gives them an advantage that insures that all the individual traders are doomed to failure. They start looking at all kinds of indicators and playing with the inputs to customize the indicators to make them just right. Every indicator works some of the time, but for me, they obfuscate instead of elucidate. In fact, without even looking at a chart, you can place a buy order and have a 50 percent chance of being right!

 

我是一个完全依赖于观察期货指数电子盘(Emini)图表上的价格行为进行交易的日内交易者,而且我相信,阅读价格行为是一个非常有价值的技巧,对所有交易者都是如此。新手们总是有种先入为主的想法,认为交易需要更多的东西,它可能是一种复杂的数学公式,只有很少人知道并用得到。它让那些人战力超群。高盛公司那么有钱,那么老练,一定是有一台超级电脑,有一些超强的软件,让他们拥有超人般的能力,单个的交易对手在他们面前命中注定要被击败。这些新手们到处找各种技术指标,输入各种参数以优化指标,以期它们绝对正确。每一个指标都或许会灵光那么一段时间,但对我来讲,它们只会把事情弄得混乱而不是更清晰。事实上,即使不看图表,你下单交易,也会有50%的机会是正确的!

 

I am not dismissing indicators and systems out of ignorance of their subtleties. I have spent over 10,000 hours writing and testing indicators and systems over the years, and that probably is far more experience than most. This extensive experience with indicators and systems was an essential part of my becoming a successful trader. Indicators work well for many traders, but the best success comes once a trader finds an approach that is compatible with his personality. My single biggest problem with indicators and systems is that I never fully trusted them. At every setup, I saw exceptions that needed to be tested. I always wanted every last penny out of the market and was never satisfied with a return from a system if I could incorporate a new twist that would make it better. I am simply too controlling, compulsive, restless, observant, and untrusting to make money long term off indicators or automated systems, but I am at the extreme in many ways, and most people don't have these same issues.

 

我并不是因为不明白那些指标和交易系统的精微之处而无视它们,事实上,过去这些年里,我花了超过10000小时来编写和测试各种技术指标和交易系统,我可能比大多数人都更了解指标和交易系统。对技术指标和交易系统的广泛了解,是成为一个成功交易者的必要部分。但是,真正的成功是找到与自己个性相匹配的交易方法。我个人最大的问题就是,对各种技术指标和交易系统,我从来都不真正相信它们。在每一个进场模式之上,我都看到需要验证的一面。我总想从市场里赚出每一分钱,从来不会对指标和交易系统中允许的回撤感到可以坦然接受,只要我能跟上这个转向并赚更多。对依靠技术指标和交易系统长期赚钱来说,我就是个简单的控制狂、强迫症、永动机、敏感症、怀疑症的综合体。虽然我对这些东西的了解真的很深入,而大多数人却不甚了了。

 

Many traders, especially beginners, are drawn to indicators, hoping that an indicator will show them when to enter a trade. What they don't realize is that the vast majority of indicators are based on simple price action, and when I am placing trades, I simply cannot think fast enough to process what several indicators might be telling me. Also, oscillators tend to make traders look for reversals and focus less on price charts. These can be effective tools on most days when the market has two or three reversals lasting an hour or more. The problem comes when the market is trending strongly. If you focus too much on your indicators, you will see that they are forming divergences all day long, and you may find yourself repeatedly entering Countertrend and losing money. By the time you come to accept that the market is trending, you will not have enough time left in the day to recoup your losses. Instead, if you were simply looking at a bar or candle chart, you would see that the market is clearly trending, and you would not be tempted by indicators to look for trend reversals. The most common successful reversals first break a trendline with strong momentum and then pullback to test the extreme, and if a trader focuses too much on divergences, she will often overlook this fundamental fact. A divergence in the absence of a Countertrend momentum surge that breaks a trendline is a losing strategy. Wait for the trendline break, and then see if the test of the old extreme reverses or if the old trend resumes. You do not need an indicator to tell you that a strong reversal here is a high-probability trade, at least for a scalp, and there will almost certainly be a divergence, so why complicate your thinking by adding the indicator to your calculus?

 

很多交易者,尤其是新手,沉溺于技术指标中,希望技术指标告诉他们什么时候可以开始一笔交易。他们没认识到的是,绝大多数技术指标都是建立在简单的价格行为之上的。而且,当你开始一笔交易时,你不可能思考得那么快,弄清每一个技术指标正在说些什么。同时,摆动指标使交易者倾向于寻找趋势的反转,较少注意价格图表当前的运行。在那些每天都有两到三个持续一小时以上的反转波段的日子里,这些摆动指标很有用。但当行情处于强烈的趋势中时,问题就来了。如果太专注于你的指标,你就会发现它们整天都在发出背离的信号,你也在不断地逆势进场并赔钱了事,等到你意识到市场正处于强趋势里时,你却发现已经没有时间留给你,让你在这天的交易里挽回损失了。相反,如果你只是简单地看柱状图或蜡烛图,就会发现市场处于明显的趋势中,你就不会像是依赖指标时那样总去找反转的机会了。大部分有效的反转,首先会强力突破原先的趋势线,然后再拉回测试原来的趋势所到达的最远点。如果一个交易者过分关注背离,他经常会忽视这个基本事实,一个并没有突破原趋势线的背离将只会是一个失败的交易机会。等待趋势线被击破,然后看看价格测试原趋势形成的最远点之后是反转还是延续原来的方向,这已经足够,不需要一个技术指标告诉你这里有一个强势的反转机会可以交易,至少可以刮刮头皮。这里当然会有一个背离,为什么要在你的分析上增加一个指标,让思考变得更复杂呢?

评:Al Brooks用很多文字强调他自己的方法的神奇,其它分析方法的百无一用,却又强调自己是深深了解其它方法之后才形成自己的方法,这显然是在无形中贬低其它分析方法。在这之前,他也承认不同的分析方法可以导致基本相同的交易决策,这相互矛盾的说法放在一起就很好玩了,会让“老子天下第一”这样的吹牛更像是心虚的噫语。其实Al Brooks根本不必如此,掌握其它分析方法的人不会听了他的吹牛就一下子拜倒在他脚下,不信他的吹牛也并不意味对他的轻视。每种方法都有其价值,别人会对他的合理之处给于充分重视的。这样过分的卖弄,反会让人看不起。说实在的,我过去就是Al Brooks在前言里的这些废话影响了阅读的乐趣而没再继续阅读全书的。

 

Some pundits recommend a combination of time frames, indicators, wave counting, and Fibonacci retracements and extensions, but when it comes time to place the trade, they will only do it if there is a good price action setup. Also, when they see a good price action setup, they start looking for indicators that show divergences or different time frames for moving average tests or wave counts or Fibonacci setups to confirm what is in front of them. In reality, they are price action traders who are trading exclusively off price action on only one chart but don't feel comfortable admitting it. They are complicating their trading to the point that they certainly are missing many, many trades because their overanalys is takes too much time to place their orders, and they are forced to wait for the next setup. The logic just isn't there for making the simple so complicated. Obviously adding any information can lead to better decision making, and many people may be able to process lots of inputs when deciding whether to place a trade. Ignoring data because of a simplistic ideology alone is foolish. The goal is to make money, and a trader should do everything he can to maximize his profits. I simply cannot process multiple indicators and time frames well in the time needed to place my orders accurately, and I find that carefully reading a single chart is far more profitable for me. Also, if I rely on indicators, I find that I get lazy in my price action reading and often miss the obvious. Price action is far more important than any other information, and if you sacrifice some of what it is telling you to gain information from something else, you are likely making a bad decision.

 

有一些专家会推荐不同时间框架的组合、不同指标的组合、数浪,以及费波纳奇回撤及扩展,但是在进场交易时,他们只会在看到非常明显的价格行为进场模式时才采取行动。同样的,当他们看到一个明显的价格行为进场模式出现,就开始从指标里找背离,或者从不同的时间框架内找对移动平均线的测试,或者数浪,或者从费波纳齐系统里找支持,以确认所看到的进场模式是有效的。事实上,他们是纯粹的价格行为交易者,是在一张图表里完全依靠价格行为进行交易,只是不愿意承认这一点罢了。他们把当下就要进行的交易搞得很复杂,以至于因为这种过度分析浪费了太多时间而错失很多交易机会,只好再等进场模式的下一次出现。把本来可以简单的事情弄得太复杂,显然不合理。毫无疑问,增加一些信息有助于做出更好的决定,有很多多人在决定是否进行交易时可以对一大堆相关信息进行综合处理,以做出判断,但因为一些想法而忽略基本的数据,显然是愚蠢的。作为一个交易者,他的目标是赚钱,他应尽最大努力去使他的利润最大化。我偏偏就是个没办法在需要进行一笔交易时把多个指标多个时间框架都弄明白的人,我发现,仔细阅读单一图表上的价格行为,对我而言更能获利。同时,如果我依赖技术指标,就会变得懒于对价格行为认真阅读,经常会错失明显的交易机会。价格行为远比其它信息重要,如果你牺牲它告诉你的东西,却去从其它途径寻找信息,你总是会做出糟糕的决定。

 

There are countless ways to make money trading stocks and Eminis, but all require movement (well, except for shorting options). If you learn to read the charts, you will catch a great number of these profitable trades every day without ever knowing why some institution started the trend and without ever knowing what any indicator is showing. You don't need their software or analysts because they will show you what they are doing. All you have to do is piggy-back onto their trades, and you will make a profit. Price action will tell you what they are doing and allow you an early entry with a tight stop.

 

从股票和期货指数电子盘(Emini) 的交易中获利的方法很多,只要它们在运动(好吧,期权交易除外)。如果你学会了阅读价格图表,你每天都可以抓住很多有钱可赚的交易机会,不用了解为什么机构交易者要发动这一波趋势,也不需要知道技术指标怎样显示。你只需要扑到交易上,你就可以从中获利。价格行为会告诉你市场正在干什么,并让你以极小的止损尽早介入。

 

I have found that I consistently make far more money by minimizing what I have to consider when placing a trade. All I need is a single chart on my laptop computer with no indicators except a 20-bar exponential moving average, which does not require too much analysis and clarifies many good setups each day. I sometimes trade even without the moving average, but it provides enough setups that it is usually worth having on the chart. Volume on I-minute charts is also sometimes minimally useful when looking for a sign that a trend reversal might be imminent, but I never look at it because I trade mostly off the 5-minute chart (rarely I will take an early 5-minute With Trend entry off the 1-minute chart). An unusually large 1-minute volume spike often comes near the end of a bear trend, and the next new swing low or two often provide profitable long scalps. However, this is simply an observation; it is far too unreliable to be a part of your trading and should be ignored. Volume spikes also sometimes occur on daily charts when a sell off is overdone.

 

我一直都发现地发现这一事实,下单时需要思考的东西越少,就越可以赚更多的钱。我的工作台上的电脑只用一张带有20期指数移动平均线的图表,不需要其它指标,就可以每天找到很多不错的进场模式。在有些交易里,我甚至连这条移动平均线也不需要,不过它还是可以提供不错的支持,值得继续留在图表上。1分钟图表上,在寻找方向反转的信号时,成交量也许会有小小的帮助,但我从来不看它们,因为我主要是从5分图表中找交易机会(我很少会从1分钟图表中找出比5分钟图表稍早的入场机会),1分钟图表上一个不同平常的成交量突然放大经常会表示下跌趋势的结束,接下来的两到三个低点总能带来拨头皮的做多赚钱的机会。但是,这只是一种简单的观察,它的可靠性还远不足以让它成为你交易的一部分,可以忽略不计。成交量突然放大有时也会在超卖的日线图表中出现。

 

Even traders who base their trades on a collection of indicators routinely look at price action when placing their entries and exits. Who wouldn't feel better about buying a divergence if there was also a strong reversal bar at the low? However, charts provide far more information about who is in control of the market than most traders realize. Almost every bar offers important clues as to where the market is going, and a trader who dismisses any activity as noise is passing up many profitable trades each day.

 

就算是以一大堆技术指标组合作交易基础的交易者,通常也会在下单交易或离场时看一下价格行为的情况。当指标出现严重背离而在低位买入时,看到一个强劲的反转K线,谁会觉得不爽呢?事实上,图表给出的关于多头和空头谁在主导的信息,比大部分交易者认识到的都多得多。几乎每一根K线都对市场将向哪个方向运动给出重要的线索,那些把任何活跃的价格行为当成市场噪音而忽视的交易者,每天都会错过一大把交易机会。

 

As a trader, I see everything in shades of gray and am constantly thinking in terms of probabilities, If a pattern is setting up and it is not perfect but it is reasonably similar to a reliable setup, it will likely behave similarly as well. Close is usually close enough. If something resembles a textbook setup, the trade will likely unfold similarly to the trade from the textbook setup. This is the art of trading, and it takes years to become good at trading in the gray zone. Everyone wants concrete, clear rules, or indicators, and chat rooms, newsletters, hotlines, or tutors that will tell them when exactly to get in to minimize risk and maximize profit, but none of it works in the long run. You have to take responsibility for your decisions, but you first have to learn how to make them, and that means that you have to get used to operating in the gray fog. Nothing is ever as clear as black and white, and I have been doing this long enough to appreciate that anything, no matter how unlikely, can and will happen. It's like quantum physics. Every conceivable event has a probability, and so do events that you have yet to consider. It is not emotional, and the reasons why something happens are irrelevant. Watching to see if the Feds cut rates today is a waste of time because there is both a bullish and bearish interpretation of anything that they do. What is key is to see what the market does, not what the Fed does. Never watch the news during the trading day. If you want to know what a news event means, the chart in front of you will tell you. If a pundit on CNBC announces that a report was bearish and the market goes up, are you going to look to short? Only look at the chart, and it will tell you what you need to know. The chart is what will give you money or take money from you, so it is the only thing that you should ever consider when trading. If you are on the floor, you can't even trust what your best friend is doing. He might be offering a lot of orange juice calls but secretly having a broker looking to buy 10 times as many below the market. Your friend is just trying to create a panic to drive the market down so he can load up through a surrogate at a much better price.

 

作为一个交易者,我一直都关注着市场的灰色区域里发生的一切,并不断思考形成这些变化的各种可能性何在。如果一个形态正在形成中,尽管它还没有完成,但只要它与某种可靠的进场模式合理地近似,它的后续发展也就很可能朝那个方向发展,等到收盘价往往已经一切都真的结束了。如果一个形态与某种教科书上的特定进场模式类似,按照它的形态所进行的交易往往最终也和按照教科书上的形态所进行的交易结果相似。这是交易的艺术,要花很长时间才能掌握这种在市场的灰色区域中进行交易的技巧。每个人都想要得到确定性、明确的规则、技术指标的指引,以及聊天室、市场通讯、热线、专家等等来告诉他何时进场可以让风险最小,让利润最大,但是没有哪种方式是长期有效的。你必须为自己的决定负责,在这之前,你还必须首先学会如何做出这个决定。这也注定了你必须习惯于在市场的迷雾中操作。没什么东西清晰到非黑即白。我花了很长时间来接受这样一个事实,就是什么事都会发生,别管它看起来多么不可能。这就像日新月异的物理学一样。每一件你可以想象得到的事情都有其合理性,你还没想到的也是一样。任何事情发生的原因都不是不相关的,这不是情绪化。去观察美联储今天会不会降低利率纯是浪费时间,因为对它的理解可以是利好,也可以是利空,真正重要的是看市场如何行动,而不是看美联储怎么行动。永远不要在交易日看新闻,如果你想知道每一个新闻事件意味着什么,你面前的图表会告诉你。如果一个专家在CNBC的节目里宣布某个市场报告是利空的,但市场却在向上走,你难道会去做空吗?只需要看市场图表就够了,它会告诉你需要知道的一切。市场图表才会给你钱或者把你的钱抢走,所以,它应该是在进行交易时唯一关心的东西。如果你是在进行场内交易,你甚至不能相信你最好的朋友在做什么,他也许正在交易桔汁并给出大量卖盘,同时却正通过一个经纪人在市场下进行十倍的买入,他在场内所做的只是为制造一个短时间的暴跌,让通过经纪人所进行的买入可以得到更低价格而已。

 

There is one other problem with the news. Invariably when the market makes a huge move, the reporters will find some confident, convincing expert who predicted it and interview him, leading the viewers to believe that this pundit has an uncanny ability to predict the market, despite the untold reality that this same pundit has been wrong in his last 10 predictions. The pundit then makes some future prediction, and the naive viewer will attach significance to it and let it affect his trading. What the viewer may not realize is that some pundits are bullish 100 percent of the time and others are bearish 100 percent of the time, and still others just swing for the fences all of the time and make outrageous predictions. The reporter just rushes to the one who is consistent with the day's news, which is totally useless to a trader. In fact it is destructive because it can influence his trading and make him question and deviate from his own methods. So, if you really must watch TV during the trading day, I recommend cartoons or foreign language shows, so there will be no chance that the show will influence your trading.

 

关注新闻还有另一个很大的问题。通常,一旦市场朝某一方向跑得太快太远,记者们就会找那些曾经预测到这一市场方向的可信的、有说服力的专家进行采访,让观众相信这个专家有超人一般的能力,可以预测市场的方向,却无视这样一个未说出的事实,那就是这个专家过去的10次预测全是错的。这个专家也会对市场未来的运行进行预测,幼稚的交易者就会被专家的观点深深影响,并让这种影响延续到自己的交易之中。观众们不知道的是,这些专家有的一直看多,有的一直看空,也有的是墙头草,天天都在做不负责任的预测。记者只是蜂拥而向那些观点符合今天新闻的专家而已。要命的是,这些专家观点会影响交易者所进行的交易,让他怀疑自己的判断并背离自己的方法。所以,如果你真的必须在交易日看电视,我推荐你看卡通片或者外国语的节目,它们可没办法影响你的交易。

评:好吧,我必须承认Al Brooks在这几段文字里东拉西扯了太多东西来说明理解价格行为的重要性,但我从他的文字中看到的只是混乱,是对材料和观点的粗糙组合。他说出了诸多事实,但这些事实并不能完全用于支持他的观点。这种现象堆砌看起来热闹,但只会让人感到混乱。好在我们不必一直看这些东西,我在等待后文对价格行为阐述,那里应该有一些有价值的东西。

 

Friends and colleagues freely offer opinions for you to ignore. Occasionally traders will tell me that they have a great setup and want to discuss it with me. I invariably get them angry at me when I tell them that I am not interested. They immediately perceive me as selfish, stubborn, and close-minded, and when it comes to trading, I am all of that and probably much more. The skills that make you money are generally seen as flaws to the lay person. Why do I no longer read books or articles about trading, or talk to other traders about their ideas? As I said, the chart tells me all that I need to know, and any other information is a distraction. Several people have been offended by my attitude, but I think it in part comes from me turning down what they are presenting as something helpful to me when in reality they are making an offering, hoping that I will reciprocate with some tutoring. They become frustrated and angry when I tell them that I don't want to hear about anyone else's trading techniques. I tell them that I haven't even mastered my own and probably never will, but I am confident that I will make far more money perfecting what I already know than trying to incorporate non-price action approaches into my trading. I ask them if James Galway offered a beautiful   to Yo Yo Mah and insisted that Yo Yo start learning the flute because Galway makes so much money by playing his flute, should Mah accept the offer? Clearly not. Mah should continue to become better and better at the cello and by doing so he will make far more money than if he also started playing the flute. I am no Galway or Mah, but the concept is the same. Price action is the only instrument that I want to play and I strongly believe that I will make far more money by mastering it than by incorporating ideas from other successful traders.

 

朋友和同事也通常会免费给你提供一些看法,这些看法也应该被无视。有时一些交易者会告诉我,他们发现了一个很棒的进场模式,想和我讨论一下并听听我的意见。我通常会让他们生气,因为我会告诉他们不感兴趣。他们马上觉得我这人很自私、固执、自闭,但在交易这方面,我就是这样的,甚至比他们所说的更严重。让你能从中赚钱的技巧,对于其它人可能就是个小错误。为什么我不看有关交易方面的书,也不和其它人讨论他们的想法?就像我说过的,图表上有我需要知道的一切,其它信息对我都只是干扰。有些人被我的态度激怒,我觉得,这很大程度上是因为他们觉得我看不起他们的想法,而他们本来认为这些想法是对我有用,他们是在慷慨地向我贡献思想,我也应该给他们一些指导做为回报。当我告诉他们不想听任何人的交易技术时,他们感到很受挫折和气愤。我会告诉他们,我甚至还没有熟练掌握自己的方法,甚至永远都没办法掌握,但我确信我将会从对这些方法的不断探索中赚到的钱,远比尝试其它与价格行为无关的方法要多得多。我问他们,如果James Galway给马友友一支漂亮的长笛,要求马友友也学习长笛,原因是Galway自己通过表演长笛赚了很多钱,马友友会接受吗?当然不会。马友友应该继续把大提琴拉得更好,他这样就能比也开始学习长笛能赚更多的钱。我不是Galway也不是马友友,但道理是一样的。价格行为是我唯一感兴趣的东西,我可能通过对它的熟练掌握赚更多的钱,这要比从其它成功的交易者那里学一些其它方法能赚的钱要多得多。

评:马友友可不会象Al Brooks评价其它分析方法那样,把Galway的长笛说得一无是处,呵呵!

 

Yesterday, Costco's earnings were up 32 percent on the quarter and above analysts' expectations. It gapped up on the open, tested the gap on the first bar and then ran up over a dollar in twenty minutes. (See Figure P.2.) It then drifted down to test yesterday's close. It had two rallies that broke bear trendlines, and both failed. This created a Double Top (Bars 2 and 3) Bear Flag or Triple Top (Bars 1, 2, and 3) and the market then plunged three dollars, below the prior day's low. If you were unaware of the report, you would have shorted at the failed bear trendline breaks at Bars 2 and 3 and you would have sold more on the Breakout Pullback at Bar 4. You would have reversed to long on the Bar 5 big reversal bar, which was the second attempt to reverse the breakout below yesterday's low and a climactic reversal of the breakout of the bottom of the steep bear trend channel line. Alternatively, you could have bought the open because of the bullish report, and then worried about why the stock was collapsing instead of soaring the way that TV analysts predicted, and you likely would have sold out your long on the second plunge down to Bar 5.

 

昨天公布的COST的季报显示,它的收益上季度增长了32%,高于分析师们的预测。今天,它向上跳空高开,在第一支K线测试了跳空缺口,然后在20分钟里向上窜升了差不多1美金(见图2),之后,它转头向下测试昨天的收盘价。它两次上行试图突破向下的趋势,但都失败了。这就形成了一个双头(K线23)看空旗形,或者理解为一个三头结构(K线123)。在这之后,市场向下滑跌了3美金,比前一天的低点还低。如果你不知道这个季报,你可能在K线23价格试图突破下行趋势线而失败时做空,你可能在K线4回撤下行突破位时卖出更多,你可能在K线5处转头做多,因为出现了大反转K线。这是第二次尝试反转以测试对昨日低点的突破是否有效。这也是对过度陡峭的下行通道下边突破形成的过度超卖的反转。与之相反,如果你看了那个牛气的报告,你就可能在开盘时买入,然后为股票为什么会下跌而不是像专家在电视上预测的那样飚升而忧心不已,而且你可能在股价第二次下跌到K线5时割肉卖出你的多头头寸。

 对话 <wbr>Al <wbr>Brooks <wbr>(二)


 

    FIGURE P.2 Should You Buy Based on a Great Earnings Report or Short Based on Price Action?

你是应该因为利好的报告而做多,还是基于价格行为而做空?

 

Any trend that covers a lot of points in very few bars, meaning that there is some combination of large bars and bars with very little overlap, will eventually have a pullback. These trends have such strong momentum that the odds favor a test of the trend's extreme after the pullback and usually the extreme will be exceeded, as long as the pullback does not become a new trend and extend beyond the start of the prior trend. In general, the odds that a pullback will get back to the prior trend's extreme fall substantially if the pullback retraces 75 percent or more. For a pullback in a bear, at that point, a trader is better to think of the pullback as a new bull trend rather than a pullback in an old bear. Bar 6 was about a 70 percent pullback and then the market tested the climactic bear low on the open of the next day.

 

任何只有少数几根K线就跨越较多价格点位的趋势运动,意味着它是由几根彼此很少重叠的大K线构成,这样的行情往往最终会导致回撤发生。它拥有的强劲动能,也使得回撤完成之后,价格会再次测试该趋势回撤之前所形成的最远点,并通常会越过这个最远点,只要这个回撤没有超越之前的强劲趋势启动点而发展成为新的趋势。通常而言,如果回撤达到原来的趋势运动的75%或稍多的位置,回撤完成之后,价格会再回到之前的趋势运动所形成的最远点。对一个下跌趋势中的回撤,交易者最好把它当成一个新的趋势看待,而不仅仅当成一次原来的下跌趋势中的回撤。K线6就是一个大约70%的回撤,之后市场就在第二天开盘不久再次测试了前次下跌所形成的最低点位置。

评:Al Brooks在这里似乎是想说下跌行情中回撤的力度一般都比较大,所以值得当作一波上升行情来交易,而不宜仅仅当做回撤而放弃。这里,我对Al Brooks是否真的会在K线5的位置做多表示怀疑,毕竟,这里给出的多头信息实在太少,多年的交易经验也告诉我,这种情形下做多,亏损的机会远多于盈利的机会,属于典型的接飞刀式抄底交易,十有八九会被飞刀所伤。约翰墨菲在他著名的《期货技术分析》中就提醒过交易者,技术分析中的图例都是经过精心挑选出来以体现作者观点的,如果把这种图上的交易当成现实,就太过天真了。这一点上,Al Brooks远不如约翰墨菲坦诚并具大家风范。

 

The only thing that is as it seems is the chart. If you cannot figure out what it is telling you, do not trade. Wait for clarity. It will always come. But once it is there, you must place the trade and assume the risk and follow your plan. Do not dial down to a1-minute chart and tighten your stop because you will lose. The problem with the 1-minute chart is that it tempts you by offering lots of entries. However, you will not be able to take them all and you will instead cherry-pick, which will lead to the death of your account; you will invariably pick too many bad cherries. The best trades often happen too fast for you to place your orders and that means you will be choosing among the less desirable trades and will lose more often. When you enter on a 5-minute chart, your trade is based on your analysis of the 5-minute chart without any idea of what the 1-minute looks like. You must therefore rely on your 5-minute stops and targets, and just accept the reality that the 1-minute chart will move against you and hit a 1-minute stop frequently. If you watch the 1-minute chart, you will not be devoting your full attention to the 5-minute chart and I will take your money from your account and put it in my account. If you want to compete, you must minimize all distractions and all inputs other than what is on the chart in front of you, and trust that if you do, you will make a lot of money. It will seem unreal but it is very real. Never question it. Just keep things simple and follow your simple rules. It is extremely difficult to consistently do something simple, but in my opinion, it is the best way to trade. Ultimately, as a trader understands price action better and better, trading becomes much less stressful and actually pretty boring, but much more profitable.

 

看起来是什么样子就会是这个样子的唯一的东西就是图表。如果你不能读懂图表所要告诉你的东西,那就不要交易,要等它变得清晰,那一刻也终究会来。当那一时刻来到,你就必须坚决地进行你的交易,评估风险,并遵守你的交易计划。不要把图表调到1分钟图的时间框架内去收紧你的止损位,因为那会让你赔钱。1分钟图表的问题在于,它会给出一大堆进场机会诱惑你,但是,你不可能交易每一个机会,你必须从中选择最好的交易机会,但这会让你的账户挂掉,因为你不可能总是挑到最好的。那些真正好的交易机会往往发生得太快,以至你来不及下单,这意味着你不得不从那些并非最佳的交易机会中进行选择,并经常因此而亏损。当你按照5分钟图表进行交易时,你的交易就是基于对5分钟图表的分析而进行,和1分钟图表没半点关系。你因此也必须按照5分钟图表而设定的止损和获利目标行事,接受价格经常在1分钟图表上向你的交易的相反方向运行并冲击1分钟图表的止损位这一事实。如果你看一分钟图表,你就很难专注于5分钟图表,我就会趁机从你的账户里把钱拿走,并放进我的账户。如果你想在竞争中取胜,就必须尽可能减少面前图表之外的任何干扰和信息输入,相信这样做可以赚更多的钱。这听起来不像真的,但事情就是真的这样发生,永远都不要怀疑。你要让事情尽量简单并遵守你的简单的规则。一直坚持做最简单的事情很不容易,但在我的观念里,这却是交易的最佳方式。最终,当一个交易者把价格行为弄得越来越明白,交易就变得越来越轻松而单调,但却可以赚更多的钱。

评:Al Brooks在这里似乎在讲使用单一时间框架的重要性,这一点很重要。但他阐述的方式却很让人感到不太舒服。我想问一下,如果说因为1分钟框架过于短暂而存在诸多问题,那么,一个使用小时框架进行交易的人来看5分钟图表框架时,又会做何感想?Al Brooks真正想表达的,只使用同一个时间框架的图表,可让对交易环境的分析保持一致性,可减少多时间框架带来的太多信息干扰,但他的表达方式,却会让人认为天下只有5分钟时间框架才是合理的,1分钟图表只是一堆垃圾。如果这样理解,就没办法理解Al Brooks还会讲到小时图、日线图甚至周线、月线图表上的价格行为了。正如我之前所说,Al Brooks真的不是一个好的作者,尽管这不妨碍他是一个不错的交易者。)

 

Although I never gamble because the odds are against me and I never want to bet against math, there are some similarities with gambling, especially in the minds of those who don't trade. For example, some traders use simple game theory and increase the size of a trade after one or more losing trades. Blackjack card counters are very similar to trading range traders. The card counter is trying to determine when the math has gone too far in one direction. In particular, he wants to know then the remaining cards in the deck are likely overweighed with face cards. When his count indicates that this is likely, he places a trade (bet) based on the probability that a disproportionate number of face cards will be coming up, increasing his odds of winning. A trading range trader is looking for times when he thinks the market has gone too far in one direction and then he places his trade in the opposite direction (a fade).

 

尽管因为手气不佳,也因为我从不想与数学作对,我从不赌博,但我仍然认为交易和赌博有某些相似,在那些从不进行交易的人看来更是如此。例如,有些交易者运用简单的博弈理论在一次或几次亏损的交易之后增加交易规模。玩21点的算牌玩家就和进行区间交易的交易者很相似,算牌玩家试图估算在什么时候牌的方向在数字的统计上与平均值偏离太远,他尤其想知道什么时候留在发牌盒中的花牌已经偏多,当他算出这种可能性时,就会下单(下注)在倒霉的数字出现导致庄家爆牌的机会上,增加自己获胜的机率。区间交易者就是寻找价格在一个方向上已经走得太远的时机,在相反的方向上下注,赌它会转向。

 

One unfortunate reality is that there are aspects of trading that are very similar to gambling-the most important one is that many losing games win often enough to make you believe that you will be able to find a way to win at them in the long run. You are fighting relentless, unstoppable math and you will go broke trying to beat it. The most obvious example is trading off the 1-minute chart. Since it looks the same as the 5-minute and since you can make many winning trades day trading it, it is logical to conclude that you can use it as your primary chart. However, too many of the best trades happen too fast to catch and you will find yourself left with the second-tier trades. Over time, you will either go broke or make substantially less than you would off the 5-minute chart.

 

一个糟糕的事实是,交易在某些方面确实与赌博相似,其中最重要的一个就是:那些注定会输的游戏总能让你赢一些,以使你相信可以找到办法在这个游戏中最终取胜。你要与之战斗的是残酷无情、永不停止的数字,而你坚定相信可以战胜它们。最明显的例子就是在1分钟图表上进行交易。由于它看起来和5分钟图表差不多,由于你可以在日内交易中赢很多次,似乎你可以把它当成进行交易的首要时间框架。但是,太多最好的交易机会发生得太快,以至你抓不住,你发现你不得不在二流的交易机会里做选择,这样下来,你就会发现你要么被干掉,要么比用5分钟图表进行交易能赚到的钱还少得多。

评:这里又是一个观点正确而论据不当之处。实在看不出用1分钟图表上的交易来说明久赌必输这一道理的合理之处,难道用5分钟图表交易就不存在这一问题了吗?显然,时间框架问题不是唯一的,甚至不是重要的,久赌必输更多是一种规则的必然而已。

 

One unfortunate comparison is from non-traders who assume that all day traders, and all market traders for that matter, are addicted gamblers and therefore have a mental illness. I suspect that many are in that they are doing it more for excitement than for profit and are willing to make low probability bets and lose large sums of money because of the huge rush they feel when they occasionally win. However, most successful traders are essentially investors, just like an investor who buys commercial real estate or a small business. The only real differences from any other type of investing are that the time frame is shorter and the leverage is greater.

 

在从不交易的人眼里,交易与赌博的另一个糟糕的相似之处,就是所有的日内交易者以及所有进行类似交易的人,都是赌场瘾君子,都有精神病。我想,这些人被看成赌博成瘾者,是因为他们看起来似乎在激情而不是为了赚钱而进行交易,他们愿意在获胜机率很低时候下注,因为偶尔的小胜而加大注码而造成巨大损失。不过,大部分成功的交易者不是这样做的,他们基本上是个投资人,和那些购买商业地产或小公司的投资人差不多。交易与其它形式的投资之间,唯一的区别只是时间框架更短、杠杆率更高而已。

 

One final point about gambling. Monte Carlo techniques work well in theory but not in practice because of the conflict between math and emotion. If you double (or even triple) your position size and reverse at each loss, you will theoretically make money. Although four losers in a row  is rare on the 5-minute Emini chart (especially if you avoid trading in small sideways trading ranges in the middle of the day's range), they will happen, and so will six, seven, or more, even though I can't remember ever seeing that. In any case, if you are comfortable trading ten contracts and you decide to double and reverse with each loser, but begin with one contract, four consecutive losers would require sixteen contracts and it is unlikely that you would place a trade that is larger than your comfort zone following four losers. Also, if you like trading ten contracts, you will not be satisfied with the profit from trading one contract, which is what you would end up trading most of the time.

 

最后一点与赌博的比较。蒙特卡罗赌场上的那些技术理论上行得通,但在实践中,却会因为数学统计概率与情绪化的冲突而玩不转。如果你坚持在亏损之后把交易规模加倍(或者加三倍)进行反向交易,理论上你终能赚到钱。尽管在5分钟时间框架的期货指数电子盘(Emini)交易中连续四次亏损的机会并不高(特别是如果你能避开在午间那种小幅震荡的横盘行情中交易),但它总是会发生的,连续6次、7次甚至更多次的亏损也一样会有,虽然我记不清什么时候曾经遇见过这样的倒霉蛋。不管怎样,如果你觉得一次交易10口合约比较合适,你决定采取逢输加倍进行反转交易,而且从1口合约开始交易,到你连续第四个亏损时,就需要交易16口合约,届时你大概就不会在交易规模超出可承受的数量时仍然继续下单交易了。同样地,当你愿意交易10口合约时,只交易1口合约所产生的利润也不会让你满意。这就是你不得不从这种交易中退出的原因。

 

Lay people are also concerned about the risk of crashes and because of that risk, they again associate trading with gambling. Crashes are very rare on daily charts (but common on intraday charts). They are afraid of their inability to function effectively during extremely emotional events. Although the term "crash" is generally reserved for daily charts and applied to bear markets of about 20 percent or more happening in a short time frame, like in 1927 and 1987, it is more useful to think of it as just a simple and common chart pattern because that removes the emotion and helps a trader follow his rules. If you remove the time and price axes from a chart and focus simply on the price action, there are market movements that occur on intraday charts that are indistinguishable from the patterns in a classic crash. If you can get passed the emotion, you can make money off crashes because with all charts, they display tradable price action.

 

也有些人会担心交易中的崩溃行情带来的风险,并因为这种风险的存在,而把交易视同赌博。崩溃在日线图上很少发生(但类似行情在日内交易中却经常出现)。他们担心当市场进入过分情绪化的行情时无法正常操作而造成巨大亏损。然而,崩溃不过是日线图表上的反转,就算在熊市中跌幅超过20%的崩溃行情也是发生在较小的时间框架上的,比如1927年和1987年的大崩溃行情。这种行情也是有益的,它可以帮助交易者摆脱情绪化交易并遵守交易规则。如果你把图表上的时间轴和价格轴拿掉,简单地专注于价格行为,那些在日内图形中发生的崩溃式行情的表现与经典的大崩溃行情在形态上几乎没有差别。如果你能摆脱情绪化的控制,你甚至可以从这种崩溃式的行情中赚钱,因为所有这些图形都显示出可交易的价格行为。

评:我不明白,到底是Al Brooks糟糕的逻辑还是我糟糕的英文理解力如此让人崩溃,用崩溃式行情发生在小时间框架上来说明它不可怕?Al Brooks就是有这种能力,他会找出一大堆彼此间缺乏必要逻辑链接的事实,来证明观察价格行为是最好的交易方式。有时,他的逻辑就像是要用“兔子爱吃萝卜”来证明“喝开水比喝自来水更卫生”一样,你得承认这两者都是可被接受的观点,但两者之间真的缺乏逻辑联系。

 

Figure P.3 (from TradeStation) shows how markets can crash in any timeframe. The one on the left is a daily chart of GE during the 1987 crash, the middle is a 5-minute chart of COST after a very strong earnings report, and the one on the right is a 1-minute Emini chart. Although the term "crash" is used almost exclusively to refer to a 20 percent or more selloff over a short time on a daily chart and was widely used only twice in past hundred years, a price action trader looks for shape and the same crash pattern is common on intraday charts. Since crashes are so common intraday, there is no need to apply the term because from a trading perspective, they are just a bear swing with tradable price action.

 

3(从TradeStation中截取)展示了市场崩溃在不同级别的时间框架上都可能发生。左图是通用(GE1987年的日线图,中间一张是COST发布一个收益强劲的季报后的5分钟图表,右图是期货指数电子盘(Emini) 1分钟图表。尽管“崩溃”这个术语通常是指日线图上发生的跌幅达到20%或更多的短时间快速暴跌,而且在过去近百年来仅仅被广泛使用过两次,但价格行为交易者只关心它的形态,而且近似的形态在日内图表中非常普遍。由于崩溃在日内交易中很常见,就没必要用这个术语了,就交易分析而言,它不过是一个带有可交易的价格行为形态的下跌波段而已。

 对话 <wbr>Al <wbr>Brooks <wbr>(二)


 

FIGURE ".3 Market Crashes Look the Same on All Timeframes

3 市场崩溃在不同的时间框架图表上看起来差不多。

 

Most traders only consider price action when trading divergences and trend pullbacks. They like to see a strong close on a large reversal bar, but in reality this is a fairly rare occurrence. The most useful tools for understanding price action are trendlines and trend channel lines, prior highs and lows, breakouts and failed breakouts, the size of bodies and tails on candles, and relationships between the current bar to the prior several bars. In particular, how the open, high, low, and close of the current bar compare to the action of the prior several bars tells a lot about what will happen next. Most of the observations in this book are directly related to placing trades, but a few have to do with simple curious price action tendencies without sufficient dependability to be the basis for a trade.

 

很多交易者只在对背离形态或者趋势的回撤进行交易时才考虑价格行为。他们喜欢看到一个大反转K线的强劲收盘,但在实盘中这种情况很少发生。理解价格行为,更有效的工具是趋势线、趋势通道、前高点与前低点、突破与破败、蜡烛图实体与影线的大小、以及当前K线的开盘价、收盘价、最高价、最低价与它之前的几根K线的对比,这些内容可以对之后行情将如何发展给出许多线索。这本书里对具体形态的观察都直接与如何下单交易有关,但也有一少部分是谈较少见的价格行为的倾向性,但其可靠性尚不足以成为交易的基础。

 

I personally rely mainly on candle charts for Emini trading and bar charts for stock trading, but most signals are also visible on any type of chart and many are even evident on simple line charts. I will focus primarily on 5-minute candle charts to illustrate basic principles but will also thoroughly discuss daily and weekly charts as well. Additionally, I place intraday swing trades on several stocks each day and make occasional option purchases based on daily charts, and will discuss how using price action alone can be the basis for this type of trading.

 

我个人主要是用蜡烛图进行期货指数电子盘(Emini)交易,用柱状图进行股票交易。但是,大部分信号在其它形式的图表上也很明显,很多信号甚至在简单的线形图上更明显。为了讲清楚基本的原则,在这本书里我主要采用5分钟的蜡烛图,但也会讨论日线和周线图表。另外,我每天也在几种股票上进行日内的波段交易,偶尔也会以日线图为基础进行一些期权交易,我也会讨论到如何单独使用价格行为分析为基础进行这些类型的交易。

 

Most of the charts in the book demonstrate many different concepts and I indicated key price action observations on most. Because of this, almost any chart could be on any page, but I placed them in the section where I thought they best illustrated a point. Many charts reference setups that are described later in the book, but when they are clear examples of important setups, I point them out, which should be helpful on a second read through the book. Also, almost every pattern that you see during the day can be placed into several categories in this book. Don't waste time deciding if a reversal is unfolding as a Double Bottom Pullback or a Spike and Trading Range low or a simple Higher Low. You are a trader, not a file clerk. When you see a reversal pattern, just take the trade and don't labor over which name most accurately applies. Also, not all chapters are created equal. Some are essential to your success whereas others are included for completeness. If you are a beginner, focus on Chapter 15because it describes the best trades, and then refer back to the appropriate earlier chapters to learn more. Don't spend a lot of time on concepts like Magnets and Measured Moves, because that is not where the money is. They are included simply because they demonstrate aspects of price action, but do not offer reliable trading patterns.

Since I trade in California, all of the charts are in Pacific Standard Time. All of the charts were created with TradeStation.

   

这本书里用到的图表往往可以演绎出多个不同的概念以及我指出的重要的价格行为形态,因此,差不多每一张图都可以放在书中的任何一页当做图例。我会把它放在我认为可以清晰说明相关观点的章节里。许多图表都涉及到书中在以后的章节里所讲的进场模式,当它可以用做讲解那个重要的进场模式的清晰范例时,我会指出来,这种方式在重读这本书时会很有用。同样的,你在今天的交易中看到的几乎所有的图表形态都可以放进这本书的不同章节里。不要浪费时间讨论一个正在展开的反转到底是双底的回撤还是区间交易底部的尖刺,或者就是个简单的更高的低点,你是一个交易员,不是文件管理员。当你看到一个反转形态,只要下单交易就好,不要操心什么名字用在这里更准确。同样的,并不是所有的图表都生而平等,有些形态对你的成功非常重要,有些则仅仅是为了内容的完整性才被包括进来。如果你是个新手,我建议你重点关注第15章,因为那里讨论的是完美的交易机会,你可以看完那里再返回来看前面的适当的章节,以了解更多的知识。不要在吸附性以及可度量的波动这种概念上花太多时间,因为钱不是从这里出来的,它们被包括进本书,只是因为它们展示了价格行为的某些层面,但给不出值得交易的可靠形态。

因为我住在加利福尼亚,所有的图表使用的都是太平洋标准时间。所有的图表都是用TradeStation制作。

 

评:翻到这里,长出一口气,总算把前言部分翻译完了。这一部分是最让人头疼的,因为Al Brooks谈起他熟悉的图表时还算不错,但他毕竟不是一个学者,阐述一些相对宏观的东西对他而言实在很费劲。在序言里,他要卖自己的观点,又要打击其它人,还想用种种事实说明他独大得有理,但又说不明白各种现象与他的观点之间的相关性。这就像让惯使丈八长矛的张飞开战之前先讲一番天下大势,实在是强人所难。他讲得累,别人听得更累,反不如一声断喝“燕人张翼德在此”够威够力,简洁明快。

应该说,Al Brooks在这篇前言的最后部分,总算是废话渐少,观点也越来越清晰可爱了。我就很欣赏他所说的看到一个反转的形态时下单交易就行了,不要浪费时间在它到底该叫什么名字这种问题上。毕竟,因形害意已经不可取,因名害意就更是腐儒之举,壮士不为也。)

 

(课后总结:这篇前言,洋洋洒洒好几页,其中的干货用几句话就可以说完。我这里试着压缩总结一下,Al Brooks的粉们,看了别生气哈:

呔!俺是Al Brooks,俺是交易界的大神,俺这本书是写给有经验的老手和专业交易者看的,俺会教他们怎么赚钱,新手请绕道。如果你是个新手,但愿意花钱买书而是不是下载这些免费的盗版电子书,你买一本俺的书倒也不错,因为这里面的内容对你还是有用的,只要你能看懂。

作为一个交易大神,俺做交易基本上不看什么指标,就是看一张加了一根均线的图,其实这根均线也就是个装饰,把它拿掉老子一样做交易。你问俺靠什么交易,俺根你说,俺靠的就是对价格行为的直接观察,PA,明白吗?这可是目前的显学,汇客论坛上的人都正疯魔着呢!

什么?俺是不是因为不懂指标才不用指标?老实告诉你,老子几乎把天下的所有指标和交易系统都研究遍了,俺对那些东西的了解程度,如果说是天下第二,就没人敢说自己是天下第一。正因为太了解它们了,俺才会告诉你那些鸟玩意看起来不错,真用起来能把你家户口本上的人全部坑死!俺的PA大法才是正道,想赚钱,快跟上哥哥俺的脚步吧!

有人说交易和赌博差不多,俺也觉得有点像。比如说小赢大亏啦,亏了之后加倍会弄死你啦,反正是人要倒起霉来,干什么都一样。有人说交易的风险太大,和赌博差不多,碰到崩盘,全民破产。这你还别操心,反正不会天天崩盘。就算天天崩也没关系,只要你学会了哥的PA,崩盘也是赚钱的好机会啊!

有人说哥很自负,很傲慢,很自闭,很无礼。让他们说去吧,其实他们是想向哥学两招,俺才懒得理他们呢。哥养大了三个闺女,全靠有PA在手啊。只要会了PA,什么狗屁专家,什么狗屁指标,就是你朋友也不可靠,统统一边玩儿去!哥再顺便告诉你,看一分钟图交易也是扯蛋,一分钟图就是一堆垃圾!哥就是喜欢5分钟图,不长不短,哥也会玩更长的时间框架,所以,玩长时间框架的人不要来喷我啊,俺可以喷一分钟图交易者,但你们不可以喷俺,因为俺是成功交易者。有靠一分钟图发财的吗?报个名上来?

最后再说一句,哥住加利福尼亚,这里有阳光沙滩海浪仙人掌,还有一位老船长。赶快放下其它玩意来跟哥学PA赚钱吧,在哥的别墅旁边弄一幢别墅,你不想吗?

 

呃,我得承认,我在这里删掉了Al Brooks的不少废话,但却加上了我的更没有营养的废话。但是,这个前言除了夸PA之外,里边还有其它有价值的内容吗?

 

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