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地产销售业大亨John McGrath说,悉尼房地产泡沫不会破碎

(2015-06-04 08:35:47)
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澳洲投资

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悉尼墨尔本别墅

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分类: 澳洲地产新闻
news.com.au 消息


地产销售业大亨John McGrath说,悉尼房地产泡沫不会破碎

房地产业大亨 John McGrath 声称,悉尼的房地产繁荣将不会是个有待破碎的泡沫。他呼吁买家和卖家不要理会房地产将要呈自由落体下降的评论。


他说:“可以肯定的是,房地产繁荣将在某个点结束。但是,这并不意味着价格增长将终止。”

McGrath是 McGrath Real Estate Agents 的创办人。他解释说,以前悉尼的房价就经历过相似的爆炸式的增长时期,但是当繁荣期结束时,价格从没有崩溃过。



其中的一个原因就是长期以来悉尼存在房屋短缺的问题。

McGrath 先生说:“当谈到价格压力时,供给和需求非常像一场皮球游戏。”


“悉尼由于受自然环境的约束,新房开发受到限制,供应严重不足。因为人口的强劲增长和海外买家的介入,需求却一直上升。”

从趋势上看,预计悉尼的城市人口到2031年时达到610 万,每年需要新建54000 套新居。但是预计在今后4年,每年仅建47000 套新居。

McGrath 说,这形势将确保房价在未来几年将继续上涨。但与前3年相比,幅度要小多了。过去3年里,房屋中位价攀升了35%。


“在某个点上,市场将自然达到顶峰――价格涨得太高了,买家失去了兴趣。这个顶峰还没有到来,部分原因是贷款非常便宜。”

.
他说:“每个人都需要冷静下来。请记住,在悉尼这样一个真正的国际商业中心,这是一个坚实的,表现良好的房地产市场。在我看来,这将持续很长一段时间。”


“悉尼的房地产市场目前正经历人们严厉的目光的审视,因为它的涨幅太大了。是啊,悉尼经历这么长时间的价格增长有些不寻常。但并不意味着灾难在等待着我们。”






SYDNEY’S property boom is not a bubble waiting to burst claims real estate mogul John McGrath, who has urged buyers and sellers to ignore commentary suggesting home prices will soon free fall.

“The boom is definitely going to end at some point. That doesn’t mean price growth will end,” he said.

Mr McGrath, founder of McGrath Real Estate Agents, explained that Sydney has been through similar periods of explosive price growth before but values never crashed when previous booms ended.

One of the reasons is that Sydney has a chronic shortage of housing.

“Supply and demand is pretty much the ballgame when it comes to price pressure,” Mr McGrath said.

“Sydney is vastly undersupplied with natural borders that limit the amount of new homes that can be built, yet demand keeps rising due to the city’s strong population growth and increasing engagement from overseas buyers.”

Trends show the city population is forecast to grow to 6.1 million by 2031, requiring the construction of 54,000 new dwellings each year, but only 47,000 are expected to be built each of the next four years.

McGrath said this will ensure price growth will continue for years to come, but in a less spectacular fashion to the last three years, which saw the median house price climb by more than 35 per cent.

“The market will at some point reach a natural peak — prices will get too high and buyers will lose interest. This isn’t happening yet, partly because finance is so cheap.

“Everyone needs to calm down and remember that this is a solid, high performing property market in a truly international business hub and in my opinion, it is going to stay that way for a long time to come,” he said.

Factors that will ease the market into more sluggish growth conditions will include declining rental returns which will start to discourage further buying from investors, who have been the primary driver of price growth up till now.

Interest rates will also begin to rise again at some point, putting the brakes on activity.

“The Sydney property market is being very heavily scrutinised at the moment because it’s had so much growth and, yes, it’s a bit unusual to have such a long stretch of significant price rises. But it doesn’t mean a calamity awaits us.”

Originally published as ‘Everyone needs to calm down’

 

cited from; http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/no-bubble-sydney-home-prices-are-not-going-to-collapse-says-john-mcgrath/story-fnd91nhy-1227379668459

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