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双语 | 刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

(2017-09-13 18:19:49)


双语 | 刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

South Korea Plans Decapitation Unitto Try to Scare Norths Leaders 

双语 <wbr>| <wbr>刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

South Korean marines during a military exercise on Baengnyeong Island, near the disputed sea border with North Korea, last week. 朝韩有争议的海上边界附近,韩国海军陆战队在白翎岛上进行军事演习。

SEOUL, South Korea The last time South Korea is known to have plotted to assassinate the North Korean leadership, nothing went as planned.


In the late 1960s, after North Korean commandoes tried to ransack the presidential palace in Seoul, South Korea secretly trained misfits plucked from prison or off the streets to sneak into North Korea and slit the throat of its leader, Kim Il-sung. When the mission was aborted, the men mutinied.


They killed their trainers and fought their way into Seoul before blowing themselves up, an episode the government concealed  for decades.


Now, as Mr. Kims grandson, Kim Jong-un, accelerates his nuclear missile program, South Korea is again targeting the Norths leadership. A day after North Korea conducted its sixthand by far most powerfulnuclear test this month, the South Korean defense minister, Song Young-moo, told lawmakers in Seoul that a special forces brigade defense officials described as adecapitation unitwould be established by the end of the year.

如今,随着金日成的孙子金正恩加紧研发核导弹,韩国再次开始准备对朝鲜领导层发起打击。朝鲜本月进行第六次——也是迄今威力最大的一次——核试验后,韩国国防部长宋永武(Song Young-moo)在首尔对议员们说,今年年底之前将会建立一支特种兵组成的“斩首战队”。

The unit, officially has not been assigned to literally decapitate North Korean leaders. But that is clearly the menacing message South Korea is trying to send. Defense officials said the unit could conduct cross-border raids with retooled helicopters and transport planes that could penetrate North Korea at night.


Rarely does a government announce a strategy to assassinate a head of state, but South Korea wants to keep the North on edge and nervous about the consequences of further developing its nuclear arsenal. At the same time, the Souths increasingly aggressive posture is meant to help push North Korea into accepting President Moon Jae-ins offer of talks.


It is a difficult balancing act, pitting Mr. Moons preference for a diplomatic solution against his nations need to answer an existential question: How can a country without nuclear weapons deter a dictator who has them?


双语 <wbr>| <wbr>刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, third from right, has accelerated his nuclear missile program, leading the South’s government to adopt an increasingly aggressive posture. 朝鲜领导人金正恩(右三)正加快推进他的核导弹计划,促使韩国政府采取了越来越有攻击性的姿态。

The best deterrence we can have, next to having our own nukes, is to make Kim Jong-un fear for his life,said Shin Won-sik, a three-star general who was the South Korean militarys top operational strategist before he retired in 2015.

“除了拥有我们自己的核武之外,我们的最佳威慑方式就是让金正恩担心自己会性命不保,”于2015年退役的三星上将申元植(Shin Won-sik,音译)说,他在退役前是韩国军方最高行动战略制定者。

The measures have also raised questions about whether South Korea and the United States, the Souths most important ally, are laying the groundwork to kill or incapacitate Mr. Kim and his top aides before they can even order an attack.


While Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson has said the United States does not seek leadership change in North Korea, and the South Koreans say the new military tactics are meant to offset the North Korean threat, the capabilities they are building could be used pre-emptively.

虽然美国国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)宣称,美国不以寻求朝鲜政权更迭为目标,韩国人也说,新战术旨在挫败来自朝鲜的威胁,但他们正在培养的能力可以被用来先发制人。

Last week, President Trump agreed to lift payload limits under a decades-old treaty, allowing South Korea to build more powerful ballistic missiles. The United States helped South Korea build its first ballistic missiles in the 1970s, but in return, imposed restrictions to try to prevent a regional arms race.


We can now build ballistic missiles that can slam through deep underground bunkers where Kim Jong-un would be hiding,Mr. Shin said.The idea is how we can instill the kind of fear a nuclear weapon wouldbut do so without a nuke. In the medieval system like North Korea, Kim Jong-uns life is as valuable as hundreds of thousands of ordinary people whose lives would be threatened in a nuclear attack.


Although a majority of South Koreans, especially conservative politicians and commentators, call for arming their country with nuclear weapons of its own, Mr. Moon has repeatedly vowed to rid the Korean Peninsula of such weapons. In June, Mr. Trump reiterated Washingtons nuclear-umbrella doctrine, promising to protect the South withthe full range of United States military capabilities, both conventional and nuclear.


But after North Korea tested two intercontinental ballistic missiles in July, including one that appeared capable of hitting the United States mainland, South Koreans are not so sure the Americans would follow through.


双语 <wbr>| <wbr>刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜

A Hyunmoo-2 missile was fired by South Koreas military during an exercise this month at an undisclosed location. 韩国军方在一场未披露地点的演习中发射玄武-2导弹。

Would the Americans intervene in a war on the peninsula if their own Seattle were threatened with a North Korean nuclear ICBM?said Park Hwee-rhak, a military analyst at Kookmin University in Seoul.

“如果美国人自己的西雅图处于搭载核弹头的朝鲜弹道导弹威胁之下,那他们还会出手干预朝鲜半岛上的一场战争吗?”首尔国民大学(Kookmin University)的军事分析师朴辉洛(Park Hwee-rhak,音)说。

Mr. Moon has vowed to expand the defense budget to 2.9 percent of South Koreas gross domestic product during his term, from 2.4 percent, or $35.4 billion, as of this year. For next year, his government has proposed a budget of $38.1 billion, nearly $12 billion of it for weapons to defend against North Korea.


In a Twitter post last Tuesday, Mr. Trump said, I am allowing Japan & South Korea to buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States.


South Korea has now introduced three arms-buildup programs Kill Chain; the Korea Air and Missile Defense program; and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation initiative, which includes the decapitation unit.

韩国现已推出了三个军事扩充项目:杀伤链(Kill Chain);韩国空中与导弹防御系统(Korea Air and Missile Defense)项目;大规模惩罚报复手段(Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation),其中就包括前述斩首部队。

Under the Kill Chain program, South Korea aims to detect impending missile attacks from North Korea and launch pre-emptive strikes.


North Korea keeps artillery and rocket tubes near the border, and is capable of delivering 5,200 rounds on Seoul in the first 10 minutes of war, military planners in South Korea say. The North also operates hundreds of missiles designed to hit South Korea and United States bases in Japan and beyond to deter American intervention should war break out.


The need to detect an impending strike has become more critical. North Korea has made its nuclear bombs small and light enough weighing under 500 kilograms, or about 1,100 poundsto be fitted onto its missiles, though it is still unclear whether they are fully weaponized, Mr. Song, the defense minister, said last week.


But detection has also become harder.


North Korea hides missiles in its many underground tunnels. Switching to solid fuel has made some of its missiles easier to transport and faster to launch. In recent years, North Korea also has flight-tested missiles from submarines, which are tougher to detect.


And the potential consequences of accurate detection are huge. Miscalculation could prompt an unwarranted pre-emptive strike, which could start a regional nuclear war.


Speaking to a United States congressional hearing in June, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., said, We will see casualties, unlike anything weve seen in 60 or 70 years.

在六月份的美国国会听 证会上,联合参谋长联席会议主席小约瑟夫·F·邓福德(Joseph F. Dunford Jr.)上将说。“届时我们所看到的伤亡将与我们在六七十年间目睹的任何情况都不一样。”

Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities are crucial, said Daniel A. Pinkston, a defense expert at the Seoul campus of Troy University. Without those capabilities, they would beshooting blindbecause the missile units could not identify the targets,he added.

情报、监控和侦察能力至关重要,特洛伊大学驻首尔防务专家丹尼尔·A·平克斯顿(Daniel A. Pinkston)说。没有这些能力,“就会变成‘盲射’,因为导弹部队无法确定目标,”他补充说。

Last month, South Korea said it would launch five spy satellites into orbit from 2021 to 2023 to better monitor weapons movements in North Korea. In the interim, it is talking with countries like France and Israel to lease spy satellites. It also plans to introduce four American RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drones by next year.

上个月,韩国方面表示,将于2021年到2023年间将五颗间谍卫星送入轨道,以便更好地监测朝鲜的武器动向。目前它正同法国和以色列等国进行谈判,租用间谍卫星,以便应付过渡阶段。它还计划在明年引进四架美国RQ-4全球鹰(RQ-4 Global Hawk)无人侦查机。

If pre-emptive attacks failed, South Korea would hope its Korea Air and Missile Defense would shoot down any rockets from the North.


South Korea is planning to upgrade its PAC-2 interceptor missiles for a better low-altitude defense. Last week, South Korea helped the United States military install a Thaad missile-defense battery, which intercepts enemy rockets at higher altitudes. For additional protection, South Korea is developing its own L-SAM interceptor missiles, as well as installing more early warning radars for ballistic missiles.


After the Norths latest nuclear test, South Korea fired its Hyunmoo-2 short-range ballistic missiles in a drill simulating an attack on the Norths test site. In July, the Souths military also released simulated images of Taurus bunker-buster missiles  hitting the Defense Ministry in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. South Korea is buying 260 Taurus missiles from a German and Swedish joint venture.


The weapons are part of the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan. Under that program, South Korea would try to divide Pyongyang into several districts and wipe out the area where Kim Jong-un is believed to be hiding, defense analysts said.


Washingtons decision to lift the missile payload limits may allow South Korea to develop new Hyunmoo missiles capable of destroying weapons sites and leadership bunkers deep underground, said Shin Jong-woo at Korea Defense Forum, a Seoul-based network of military experts.

华盛顿决定放宽对导弹有效载荷的限制,使韩国能够发展更强大的导弹。设在首尔的军事专家组织韩国防务论坛(Korea Defense Forum)的分析人士申中禹(Shin Jong-woo) 说,没有了这些限制,新的玄武弹道导弹便有可能摧毁朝鲜深藏地下的导弹与核设施,以及其领导人所在地点。

Mr. Shin said there was talk of building a Hyunmoo with a two-ton warhead.


The earlier restrictions barred South Korea from attaching a payload weighing more than half a ton to its Hyunmoo missile when the rocket had a range of up to 497 miles.


As word of South Koreas new assassination plans has spread, Mr. Kim has used his deputiescars as decoys to move from place to place, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers in June.


Still, many say they doubt that the threat is enough to deter Mr. Kim. Only the prospect of nuclear retaliation will suffice, they say.


The balance of terror is the shortest cut to deterring war,Yoon Sang-hyun, a conservative opposition lawmaker, told South Koreas Parliament last Tuesday.

“恐怖的平衡是阻止战争的最短途径,”保守派反对党议员尹相铉(Yoon Sang-hyun)于上周二对国会说。 







双语 <wbr>| <wbr>刺杀金正恩?韩国将组建“斩首战队”震慑朝鲜


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