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闽江学院 甘应进教授整理 从东京到伦敦跌声一片 全球过半股市入熊市-

(2011-06-16 22:35:19)
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关键词:纺织新

杂谈

从东京到伦敦跌声一片 全球过半股市入熊市?

作者: 编辑:郭易 闽江学院甘应进教授

东京股市暴跌 日本政府“袖手旁观”

徐静波


  “我母亲指着我的鼻子骂我:养老的钱全让你给糟蹋了!”22日晚,东京一位74岁的股民面对摄像镜头,一脸委屈。朝日电视台虽然没有播出这位老者的百岁母亲的镜头,但是他的这一句话,却让不少日本国民揪心。
微软、雅虎为本段提供翻译,闽江学院甘应进 审核,欢迎提建议。

Tokyo Stock market plunged Japan Government "watching"

Xu Jingbo


"My mother's nose at me calling me: pension money asks you to destroy! "The evening of 22nd, Tokyo investors face the camera lens, 74, a grievance face. Although Asahi television station has not broadcast the old hundred of mother shot, but his sentence, but a lot of Japan National anxious.

  日经平均指数继前一天跌落535日元后,22日继续大幅下滑,到收盘时暴跌752日元,跌破1.3万日元大关,创造了东京证券市场2年零4个月以来最低纪录。市场人士感到惊叹的是,连一直维持高股价的丰田汽车公司和索尼公司,也出现首次暴跌,丰田汽车公司股价比前一天跌落5.5%,索尼公司也出现5.1%的跌幅。而损失最大的是号称“世界第二大钢铁公司”的新日铁公司,当天的跌幅高达6.7%。市场人士分析说,这些优质股之所以也会出现如此大幅度的暴跌,说明外国投资者对日本经济已经表现出巨大的失望。
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Nikkei average after dropping 535 Yen the previous day, 22nd continue to substantially decline, plunging to close 752 yen, below 13,000 yen mark, created the lowest in the Tokyo Stock market since 2 years and 4 months. Market participants are amazing that even have remained high shares of Toyota Motor Company and Sony, also plunged for the first time, Toyota shares than the day before falling 5.5%, also a decrease of 5.1% of Sony. And the greatest loss is known as "the world's second-largest steel company" Nippon Steel Company, fell as much as 6.7% for the day. Market analysis, these high quality unit is so substantial collapse also occurs, shows foreign investors in Japan economy has shown great disappointment.

  仅仅两天时间,东京证券市场缩水了2兆多日元。而个人投资者则损失更为惨重。日本法务大臣鸠山邦夫据悉损失了40亿日元,这位日本前首相鸠山一郎的孙子,面对记者的采访虽死活不肯承认这一个数字,但是脸色相当的沉重,看来不是好兆头。
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Just two days ' time, the Tokyo Stock market has shrunk more than 2 trillion yen. While the individual investors suffered huge losses more. Japan Minister of Justice Hatoyama Kunio reportedly lost 4 billion yen, Japan's former Prime Minister jiushanyilang grandson, facing reporters interview is live or die refused to admit the one number, but face very heavy, it is not a good sign.

  22日这一天,东京股市遭遇了“黑色星期二”。面对股民的寻死寻活,福田首相紧急召见了金融大臣渡边喜美商议政府对策。虽然内阁没有公布商议的内容,但是在随后举行的记者会见中,渡边明确表示,日本政府不会采取美国和欧洲那样的降低利息的金融刺激政策,因为政府认为,这一场股市风波仅仅是由美国的次贷危机引起的,与日本经济没有太多的关联。
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22nd day, Tokyo's stock market had suffered "black Tuesday". Facing shareholders wannadies, Fukuda Prime Minister urgently summoned Finance Minister Watanabe deliberations of the United States Government. Although the content of the deliberations of the Cabinet not published, but at the subsequent press conference meeting, Watanabe made it clear that, in Japan the Government does not take the United States and Europe to reduce interest-bearing financial stimulus, because the Government believes that this stock market turmoil is just by the United States caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, and Japan economies do not have too many associations.

  渡边这一种袖手旁观的态度,迅速成为日本政府的统一腔调。22日下午,在众目睽睽之下,日本央行行长福井俊彦除了再次强调日本央行不会提高利率,也不会降低利率之外,还说了一段十分令市场困惑的话:“日本经济总体依然处于回复时期,虽然受到世界股市暴跌的影响,但是日本经济自身没有太多的问题。”
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This attitude of a stand by Watanabe, quickly become the Japan Government unity of tone. 22nd, in the afternoon, under the eyes, Japan fujingjunyan in addition, Central Bank once again stressed that Japan's Central Bank will not raise interest rates, outside would not lower interest rates, also said a very confused the market: "Japan economy still in a period of response, while under the influence of world stock markets plunged, but Japan economy itself without too many problems. ”

  日本首相当晚被记者追问股市暴跌问题时,表示出与那一位74岁老股民截然不同的心情。他说:“这一次股市风暴,是国际市场的波动所改,并不是源自日本,所以,我们只需要冷静对待。”
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Japan's Prime Minister that night was when reporters asked the plunge in the stock market problem, showed investors very different moods and the one aged 74. He said: "this time the stock market turmoil, is modified by the fluctuations of international markets, does not originate from Japan, so we just need a cool treat. ”

  而有“日元先生”之称的庆应大学教授榊原英资在22日晚间的电视节目中反驳说,虽然东京股市暴跌是受次贷危机的影响,但是,最根本的原因是日本最近停止了经济改革的步伐。使那些占日本市场资本六成以上的国际投资家们,对日本经济的前景表现出极大的失望,出现了“抛售日本”的举动。他说,福田上台4个月,东京股市总体缩水20%,这就证明了福田内阁失败的经济政策才是此次股市暴跌的一大根源。
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"Mr Yen," said Professor of Keio University Sakakia Rina in the original TV show of the British capital in the evening of 22nd retorted, although the effect of plunging Tokyo Stock market was affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, however, is the most fundamental reason Japan recently to stop the pace of economic reform. Those accounted for Japan market capitalization more than 60% of international investors, Japan economy shows great disappointment at the prospect of, to a "sell Japan" Act. He said Fukuda came 4 months Tokyo stocks overall shrinkage 20%, which proved the Fukuda Cabinet failed economic policies are a major source of the plunge in the stock market.


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恒指惨跌2000点

  辉立资产管理的股票策略师陈煜强认为:“这是十年来香港股市最差的时刻。”

舒时


  美国次贷问题引发的对金融危机的恐慌继续在香港市场扩大。
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Hsi In the tank 2000 points

FAI State asset management equities k. Chan said: "this is the Hong Kong stock market in the last decade the worst moment. ”

Shu Shi


United States subprime mortgage problems caused panic on the financial crisis continued to expand in Hong Kong.

  昨天上午,恒指出现罕见的开市跳空,直接下插250天平均线,报22624点,重挫1194点;国企指数也低开881点,以12649点开盘。随后,在汇控、中移动、港交所和中人寿等大盘股的巨大抛空压力之下,恒指一路下行,全天下跌2061点,跌幅高达8.65%,国企指数下跌1619.54点,跌幅高达11.97%,双双创下自“9·11”以来港股的最大跌幅。恒指所有43只成分股中,除裕元集团微升0.4%之外,全线下跌。
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Yesterday morning, the Hang Seng index appears rare opening Gap directly inserted under 250 day averages, 22,624, tumbled 1194 points; index low to open state-owned enterprises 881, 12,649 opened. Subsequently, in HSBC, China Mobile, the HKEx and zhongrenshou the market unit under tremendous selling pressure, the Hang Seng index down all the way, by 2,061 points throughout the day, was down as much as 8.65%, China enterprises index fell 1619.54 points, representing a decrease of up to 11.97%, both its "9·11" of Hong Kong equities held by the largest decline since. Hsi all 43 in the constituent stocks, other than Yu Yuan 0.4% engaged group, all fell.

  香港市场出现的恐慌性抛售令股票经纪人应接不暇。一位交易员对《第一财经日报》表示,许多人“要钱不要货”,稍微有点盈利或是亏得不多的,全部都沽出套现。这位交易员用“血流成河”来形容当天的股市行情。
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Panic selling of the shares in the Hong Kong market brokers could be overwhelmed. One trader said the business news, many people "to money not goods", slightly profit or lose more than all sell now. The traders with "rivers of blood" to describe the day's stock market.

  辉立资产管理的股票策略师陈煜强认为,港股实际上自前天开始已经深陷金融危机。“目前的情形比起10年前的亚洲金融危机没有什么两样,只有过之而无不及。”他说,“这是十年来香港股市最差的时刻。”
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Stock k. CHAN Hui State asset management believes that Hong Kong stocks actually starts from the day before yesterday has been in deep financial crisis. "Conditions now than 10 years ago of the Asian financial crisis is no different, only gone beyond. "He said," this is the Hong Kong stock market in the last decade the worst moment. ”

  陈煜强表示,现状其实比10年前更差,因为现在投资者根本无法判断下一步是会跌还是会回调。10年前,大家都知道发生了金融危机;而现在,很多人还在预期股市回调。“投资者发现自己行动也不行,不行动也不行。”他说,“不套现可能会损失更惨,套现又可能面临V形反弹,届时无法追上市场表现。”
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Y.k. Chan said, the status quo in fact worse than it was 10 years ago, because investors now do is down or is unable to determine the next step will be a callback. 10 years ago, we all know that the financial crisis, and now, many people expected the stock market correction. "Investors find that their action is not, no action I won't. "He said," no cash might lose even worse, is also likely to face a v-shaped rebound, when unable to catch up with market performance. ”

  事实上,昨天的股市表现似乎令投资者很难有“套现盈利”的选择。众多股票出现了自IPO以来的最低价位。首当其冲的是中资银行股及地产股。由于市场传言工行、建行、中行去年第四季增加次贷拨备,因此中资银行股全线重挫:建行跌11.8%至4.98港元,已经跌近去年8月以来的最低位;工行被削去8.84%至4.43港元;中国银行更创下自前年上市以来的最低位3.01港元,仅比当年的招股价2.95港元高出0.06港元。
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In fact, the performance seems to be difficult for investors in the stock market yesterday "cash profit" choice. Many stocks came from the lowest price since the IPO. Brunt is of Chinese-funded banks and property stocks. Due to market rumors of ICBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of the fourth quarter of last year increasing subprime provision therefore Chinese banking stocks tumbled across: China Construction Bank dropped HK $ 11.8% per cent, had fallen near the lowest level since last August; ICBC was cut to 8.84% per cent to HK $ Bank of China, its lowest level since listing the year before last to HK $ 3.01, only 0.06 higher than the offer price of HK $ 2.95 for the year Hong Kong dollar.

  去年10月刚刚上市的SOHO中国在不到三个月的时间已经跌破发行价,并于昨天创下有史以来的最低价4.28港元,比招股价8.3港元低了近一半,比起其最高价11.98港元更是削去7.7港元。
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Last October have just listed the SOHO China in less than three months has dropped below the issue price, and its lowest ever price HK $ 4.28 yesterday, lower than the offer price of HK $ 8.3 by nearly half, compared to its highest price of HK $ 11.98 is cut to HK $ 7.7.

  “现在的价位上很难还有盈利的,大多数人都在进行止蚀操作。”香港一家证券行的经纪人对本报记者说,他自己不久前刚刚把手中的股票套现近1/3。
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"Now the price is very difficult to have a profit, most people stop operation. "A Hong Kong securities firm broker said to this reporter, he has just been nearly one-third stock is now in the hands of.

  一位投资者对记者抱怨说:“我在120港元时买的汇控,现在不到110港元,连这个大笨象都能跌得这么惨,还有什么股票可以相信?”
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One investor told reporters complained: "I bought the HSBC in the HK $ 120, now less than HK $ 110, even the silly as can fall so badly, what stocks you can believe? ”

  大市如此不堪已经惊动香港经济官员,当天财政司司长曾俊华在政府总部就股市大跌发表评论,认为港股跌市主要是受到外围因素影响。他强调,市场基调仍然良好,政府会与市场参与者及中介机构协调,留意市场变化,但他仍然呼吁投资者要审慎及量力而为。

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Very large city so have alerted officials of the Hong Kong economy, the same day, Mr John Tsang, the Financial Secretary in the Government Secretariat comments on the stock market crash, think, mainly under the influence of external factors, Hong Kong stocks fell. He stressed that the market tone remained good, the Government will coordinate with market participants and intermediaries, pay attention to market changes, but he urged investors to carefully and--.


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大盘一度跌停 印度股市俯冲后微升

殷赅

  如果不是有政府背景的企业纷纷买入,印度股市昨天将出现2004年5月以来的单日最大跌幅。
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Market briefly fell to stop India stock markets dive after a marginal increase

Yin include

If it is not government-backed companies buy, India one-day maximum decline in the stock market yesterday appears since May 2004.

  昨天上午,孟买股市一开盘即跳水,几分钟内孟买证交所敏感指数(Sensex)跌幅达11.5%,导致大盘跌停,交易停止了1个小时。
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Yesterday morning, the Bombay stock market opening that plunged within minutes of the Bombay stock exchange sensitive index (Sensex), or 11.5%, led the market fell, trading stops for 1 hour.

  印度财政部长奇丹巴拉姆随即发表电话讲话,要求投资者“保持冷静”。他说:“我们没有理由被西方世界的焦虑压倒。我们的经济不同,它很强健。”
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India's Finance Minister Chidambaram is made telephone speech, request investor "to remain calm." He said: "we have no reason to be anxious of the Western world the overwhelming. Our economy, it is very robust. ”

  但重新开市后,股市并不听部长的话,而是一路探底。股市一路直下的跌势与投资者的恐慌性抛售互为因果。由30只股票构成的Sensex最低时跌至15332.42点,跌幅达12.9%,比其1月10日达到的历史最高点跌去27.2%。12.9%也仅次于2004年5月人民党在印度大选中意外负于国大党后,Sensex 17%的跌幅。
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But back after the market opened, the stock market does not listen to the Minister, but the dip all the way. Way to straight decline in stock market and investors panic selling of reciprocal causation. Made up of 30 stocks when the Sensex minimum fell to 15332.42, or 12.9% than its January 10 reached the highest point in history fell to 27.2%. 12.9% is second only to the people's Party of May 2004 in India unexpected negative after the Congress Party in the general election, Sensex 17% declines.

  印度普拉加证券公司(Pragya Securities)的证券经纪人达迪奇·巴特说:“这是市场最糟糕的一天……我们的终端都关了。我们束手无策。”
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India Praga securities company (Pragya Securities) dadiqi·Bate securities broker said: "this is the worst of the market day sth Our terminals are off. We are helpless. ”

  艾什温-钦努拜证券公司(Ashvin Chinubhai Securities)总裁阿南德·达拉尔说:“我们并不想恐慌,但恐慌到处皆是。”
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Ai Shiwen-Chin effort thanks to the security company (Ashvin Chinubhai Securities) President anande·dalaer said: "we don't want to panic, but panic is everywhere. ”

  但不久,据称以印度人寿公司(Life Insurance Corp)、通用保险公司(General Insurance Corp)为代表的国有金融企业大量买入,使股市得以反弹。
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But before long, allegedly to India life insurance companies (Life Insurance Corp), general insurance company (General Insurance Corp) as the representative of the State-owned financial enterprises into, the stock markets to rebound.

  Sensex最终收于16729.94,全天跌去875.41点,跌幅为4.97%。16729.94点也是Sensex自去年9月21日以来的最低收盘点位。
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Sensex finally closed at 16729.94, dropped 875.41 points throughout the day, representing a decrease of 4.97%. 16729.94 point is the Sensex since last year, the lowest closing level since September 21.

  而由50只股票构成的印度国家股票交易所(NSE) Nifty指数收于4899.30点,下跌5.94%。
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Made up of 50 stocks India National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty index closed at 4899.3 points, by 5.94%.

  22日也成为印度股市连续第7个下跌的交易日。此前,印度股市已在21日跌去了约11%。
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22nd also became India's stock market fell for a 7th trading day. Earlier, India 21st in equities fell to about 11%.

  印度股市21、22日两天的资金状况与中国股市的21日类似。由于信实电力公司(Reliance Power)即将进行IPO,为了申购约合30亿美元的股票,共有约合1900亿美元的资金被冻结,市场上的现金被抽干。
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India stock market 21 and 22nd days of financial and stock market in China similar to the 21st. Due to the reliance electric company (Reliance Power) upcoming IPO, in order to purchase approximately US $ 3 billion in stock, a total of about 190 billion dollars in frozen funds, cash is drained on the market.

  巴黎银行在英国的“金砖四国”证券业务主管查克里·罗卡普里亚说:“等到一段时间过后,市场透明度上升了,理性恢复了,我想印度股市将触底反弹。”
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Paris Bank in the United Kingdom "the BRICs" head of securities chakeli·luokapuliya said: "until some time after the increased market transparency, rational recovery, I would like to India stock market bottomed out. ”


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银行和能源股成俄罗斯股市“重灾区”


臧文茜


  俄罗斯股市从16日起开始持续下跌,一周之内,俄罗斯股市的两大主要风向标——莫斯科银行间外汇交易所指数和俄罗斯交易系统指数均下降约300点。
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Banks and energy stocks into Russia stock market "disastrous"


Zang Wenqian


Russia stock market starting from the 16th continued to fall, within a week, Russia's stock market two major bellwether – Moscow interbank currency exchange index and Russia trading system index fell about 300 points.

  这两大指数周一的跌幅均在7%以上,是2003年以来的最大跌幅。而周二俄罗斯证券市场继续狂跌。开盘仅半小时后,俄罗斯交易系统指数(RTS)跌幅就已经超过5%,跌至去年9月12日1900点的水平;莫斯科银行间外汇交易所指数在此区间也下跌了5.5%,为1562.95点。
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Both of these two major indexes Monday in 7%, is the largest decline since 2003. On Tuesday Russia stock market continues to changinghis. Only half an hour after opening, Russia trading system index (RTS) decline is more than 5%, fallen to a September 12 1900 levels; Moscow Interbank Exchange exchange index this interval also dropped 5.5%, to 1562.95 points.

   直到莫斯科时间下午1点,俄罗斯两大交易指数才停止下跌,并在连续两天狂跌之后开始有些许回升。在美国宣布降息之后,俄罗斯两大交易指数开始出现快速反弹。不过,快到收盘时又开始下跌。
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Until 1 o'clock in the afternoon in Moscow, Russia stopped only two large trading index declined, and starting a little bit changinghis after two consecutive days to recover. In the United States after the announced interest rate cuts, Russia began to emerge in two transactions index rebounded quickly. However, almost closing time and begin to fall.

  其中,俄罗斯储蓄银行下跌17%,苏尔古特石油天然气公司和统一电力公司跌幅均在10%以上,乌拉尔通讯下跌12.5%,俄罗斯天然气工业公司下跌了15.7%,诺尔镍业、卢克石油公司、俄罗斯石油运输公司等大型原料公司也都损失惨重。
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Among them, Russia saving Bank decreased by 17%, Surgut oil and natural gas Corporation and consolidated power companies both in 10%, Ural communication fell by 12.5%, Russia gas industry company dropped 15.7%, Nur nickel industry, the LUKOIL oil company, Russia oil transport companies and other large companies also suffered heavy losses of raw materials.

  俄罗斯Financial Bridge投资公司分析师亚历山德罗夫认为,俄罗斯股市交易在巨大的外部不利因素中开始。今年市场上更糟糕的将是银行和石油天然气行业的股票。
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Russia Financial Analyst Aleksandrov Bridge investment company believes that Russia started in stock market transactions in huge adverse external factors. Market this year will be worse on shares of banks and petroleum and natural gas industry.

  不过,俄国家杜马金融市场委员会成员、国家银行业委员会成员阿克萨科夫认为,俄罗斯金融市场将不会有任何明显的危机现象,因为没有任何基础性、深层次的下跌原因。
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However, financial markets Committee of the Russian State Duma members, members of the National Banking Commission Aksakov believes that Russia will not have any obvious crisis of financial markets, because there is no fundamental, deep down reason.

  俄联邦金融市场局前局长、MDM银行董事会主席维尤金相信国际证券市场的不稳定可能将持续到年底。而在市场不稳定的这一阶段,从俄罗斯股市可能抽逃100亿美元的外国证券投资。
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Before the Russian Federal financial markets service, MDM Bank Chairman Oleg vyugin, the Secretary believed that instability in the international stock markets may continue to the end. In this phase of market instability, from Russia's stock market could flight of 10 billion dollars of foreign portfolio investment.

  俄罗斯央行副行长克里先科22日表示,证券市场的大跌不会导致俄罗斯银行体系的流动性不足,在必要的情况下央行有足够的干预措施。
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Russia Central Bank Deputy Governor Kerry SAST 22nd that the stock market crash will not cause Russia's lack of liquidity of the banking system, in the case of necessary interventions of the Central Bank has enough.

  俄罗斯Antanta Capital投资公司分析师奥萨奇相信,俄罗斯市场已经被全球市场局势“绑架”,周二的大跌是“市场对布什计划的反应”。而此前大型投资银行公布的亏损信息对股市下跌也起到了推波助澜的作用。
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Russia Antanta Capital investment company Osadchi, an analyst believes that Russia market has been the global market situation "abduction", Tuesday's crash is "market reaction to the Bush plan". Which had a large investment bank announced losses of information on the stock market decline also played an instrumental role.

  俄“阿尔法”银行首席经济学家奥尔洛娃也认为,国际市场的下跌是市场参与者对美国经济危机的心理反应。现在是对衰退可能性的第一波恐慌,但目前没有市场重大变化的依据。
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Russia "alpha" Orlova, Chief Economist is also believed that fall is a market participant in the international market for United States psychological reaction to the economic crisis. Now is the first wave of panic on the possibility of a recession, but there is no basis for major changes in the market.


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联储降息仍难阻欧股震荡下挫

冯迪凡


  美联储为挽回市场信心,紧急决定将基准利率降低0.75个百分点救市,因投资者信心不足,受道指期货和道指开盘走势影响,截至发稿时,欧股反弹后仍继续震荡下挫。
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Federal Reserve interest rate cut is still difficult to drag Europe unit shocks falls

Feng Difan


Fed to restore market confidence, 0.75% rescue emergency decided to lower the benchmark rate, due to lack of investor confidence, under the influence of Dow futures and Dow opening movements, as of the release time, European shares rebounded after the continuing decline.

  在伦敦时间周二早上10:04,DJ STOXX 50 指数下跌 2.45 点,或0.1%,达到3136.03点。DJ STOXX 600 指数轻微上扬0.68点, 或0.2%,达到309.45点。之后,其跌至交易日低点296.21点,这是其两年交易中最差水平。
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10:04,DJ STOXX 50 index fell Tuesday morning in London time 2.45 points, or 0.1%, to 3136.03 points. DJ STOXX 600 index rose slightly to 0.68, or 0.2%, to 309.45 points. , Which fell to session lows 296.21 point, this is the worst level in its two-year deal.

  “美股开市前,欧洲股市下跌并不使我们惊奇,我们在不确定的威胁之中,除了美联储大幅降息之外,我们不觉得什么是好消息。” BGC Partners策略分析师Howard Wheeldon表示。
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"Us stocks before the market opened, European stocks fell not to our surprise, we did not determine the threat, in addition to steep interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve, we do not think that what is good news. "Said analyst Howard Wheeldon of BGC Partners strategy.

  Wheeldon 同时表示,银行股方面的收益也许是由于投资者在攫取前一日的廉价卖清。
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Wheeldon also said the Bank share gains may be cheap selling as investors grab the day before the Qing dynasty.

  从2007年7月中旬的 4015高点开始,STOXX 50指数已经下跌25%,与此同时, STOXX 600指数已从2007年7月的401高点下跌了26%。要指出的是,任何在近期最高点20%左右的回退都普遍被认为是熊市。
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Starting from 4,015 highs in mid-July 2007, STOXX 50 index had fallen 25%, meanwhile, STOXX 600 index has decreased by 26% per cent in July 2007 highs. Point is, any 20% about the highest point in the near future rollback is generally considered to be a bear market.

   在美联储宣布降息75个基点后,欧洲股市相继反弹,富时100指数瞬时上升2%,之前,道琼斯工业指数在开盘后将可能狂跌500点,跌幅超过5%的预期,也在宣布降息后,出现小幅回升,下跌206点至11900点,跌幅1.7%。
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After the Fed announced interest rate cuts by 75 basis points, European stock markets have rebounded, the FTSE 100 index rose 2% instant, before the Dow Jones industrial average will likely changinghis 500 points after the opening, fell more than forecast of 5%, after the announced interest rate cuts, modest rebound appears, by 206 points to 11,900 points, or 1.7%.

  然而,截至发稿时,欧洲股市并未维持持续上涨的局面。Allianz SE,欧洲最大保险公司,跌至2006年以来最低。伦敦时间下午14:01,DJ STOXX 600 指数下跌 0.7%,达到311.26点。在美联储宣布降息后,STOXX 600指数曾一度上扬1.9%。
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However, as of dispatch, the situation of European markets rising does not maintain. Allianz SE, Europe's largest insurance company, fell to lowest since 2006. 14:01,DJ STOXX 600 index 0.7% London afternoon, reaching 311.26 points. After the Fed announced interest rate cuts, once rose 1.9% STOXX 600 index.

 “降息十分令人惊奇,”伦敦Henderson Global Investors的策略与经济主任Tony Dolphin表示, “市场现在需要弄清楚,是否这是好的消息,因为美联储表现了其已经准备好了,将会有更强势的一面,或者这是一个坏消息,即这显示了政策制定者的确在担忧经济。”
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"Interest rate cuts is surprising," the London Economist Tony Dolphin and Henderson Global Investors strategies, "said market now needs to find out, whether this is good news, because the Fed showed it is ready, there will be a stronger side, or this is a bad news, which shows policymakers do concerns about the economy. ”

  西欧18个基准的股指中,有13个下跌,其中:英国富时100 指数下跌1.1%,法国 CAC 40 指数下跌1.6%,德国DAX指数上涨2.7%,STOXX 50指数下跌0.9%,Euro STOXX 50指数,(欧元区标准)下跌1.2%。

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18 in Western Europe in the benchmark stock index, fell 13, where: United Kingdom's FTSE 100 Index dropped 1.1%, France CAC 40 index fell by 1.6%, Germany DAX index rose 2.7%,STOXX 50 index 0.9%,Euro STOXX 50 index (Euro standard) by 1.2%.


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高华证券:欧洲股市或还要下跌10%


张喆

  高华证券日前发布报告称,欧洲股市还有下跌10%可能。
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GAO Hua securities: European stock markets or to decline by 10%


Zhang 喆

GAO Hua securities recently issued report, European stock markets fell by 10% may also have.

  他们预期美国经济在2008年三季度和四季度将出现季度环比负增长,这一情形市场还没有充分给予定价。我们认为欧洲除金融之外的市场(the market ex-financials)目前的定价反映出美国经济出现硬着陆的概率为30%%~40%。我们认为,这一概率仍将上升,并预期欧洲市场的股票价格还将继续下跌10%。
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They expected the United States economy in the third quarter of 2008 and will appear in the four quarter-quarter sequential growth, this situation has not fully priced in the market. We believe that the European financial market (the market ex-Financials) current pricing reflects the United States the probability of a hard landing for 30%%~40% in the economy. We believe that this probability will rise, and stock prices will continue to expect the European market by 10%.

  不过,在此轮经济周期底部到来之前,或者说至少市场预期达到谷底之前,市场不大可能回归到价值投资。

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However, before the coming bottom of the economic cycle, or at least before the market is expected to reach the bottom, the market is unlikely to return to value investing.



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关键词:纺织新闻|从东京到伦敦跌声一片 全球过半股市入熊市?
来源:第一财经日报 闽江学院甘应进收集整理  审核:闽江学院陈东生教授

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