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John Templeton 的“准备”投资法

(2012-05-08 17:33:52)
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杂谈

非常经典的访谈,亮点如下:
 
从1940年到现在,72年间经历了14次大事件,每次都给智慧投资人创造了“贪婪”契机。
历史不会简单重复,但会惊人地相似,平均5年一次的贪婪机会,逮住它们的秘诀就是
“准备”。
 
1.准备“智慧”资本。
2.准备“现金”资本。
 
 
During the Value Investor’s Conference on the past Saturday, Lauren Templeton, the great grand niece of Sir John Templeton, shared her insight on the success of Sir John Templeton. Lauren now runs her own investment firm, Lauren Templeton Capital Management. Thanks to Lauren for sharing the presentation.

    Sir John Templeton went to Yale and paid his tuition by taking three jobs and playing at poker tables. He visited 40 countries after college. His mother thought he was dead while he was traveling. Eventually he came back with a much better understanding of the world. This laid the foundation for him as a global investor. At the eve of World War II, he borrowed $10,000 and bought all 140 stocks under $1 on the NYSE. He lost money on only four of them. He turned the money into $40,000.

    These are the 15 essential personal attributes that Sir John Templeton thought a successful investor needs:

1. Self-reliance
2. Reasonable risk taking
3. Sense of stewardship
4. A drive towards diversity
5. Bargain-hunting mentality
6. Broad social and political awareness
7. Flexibility
8. Devote large amounts of time to study
9. An ability to retreat from daily pressures
10. Develop an extensive friendship network
11. Patience
12. Thought control
13. Positive thinking
14. Simplicity
15. Great intuitive powers

Sir John Templeton was always very calm. He took a walk every day after lunch. He was the friend and mentor of Jim Rogers and Prem Watsa.

These are some of his quotes Lauren shared:

“A MAJOR CAUSE OF HIGHER PRICES is higher prices; but when the trend is reversed, then lower prices lead to still lower prices. To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest ultimate rewards.”

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”

“If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

Successful value investor could take advantage of the crisis events:(14次危机)

1. Attack on Pearl Harbor (1941)
2. Korean War (1950)
3. President Eisenhower’s Heart Attack (1955)
4. Blue Monday (1962)
5. Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)
6. President Kennedy Assassination (1963)
7. Black Monday 1987 Crash
8. United Airlines LBO Failure (1989)
9. Persian Gulf War (1990)
10. Tequila Crisis (1994)
11. Asian Financial Crisis (1997-98)
12. September 11
13. Financial Crisis 2008-2009
14. European Debt Crisis (2010 - ?)

How to take advantage of these events? Preparation, Preparation, Preparation

· Always store some funds in reserves. One basis for his thrift is he sought out crises.
“现金”资本
· Maintain a wish list. He had already researched and prepared a list of companies he wanted to own at a bargain price.
“智慧”资本
· Maintain good-to-cancel limit orders in the market 20% below the current price.
· An optimist, he held a fundamental belief in the continued innovation, ambitions and ingenuity of others.




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