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韬睿惠悦预测全球经济将放缓并伴有下行风险

(2014-11-28 20:33:17)
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韬睿惠悦

全球经济

风险

hroot

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分类: 行业新闻

(2014年11月27日,北京)世界知名的投资咨询机构韬睿惠悦(NYSE, NASDAQ: TW)在题为《投资业疑云》的年度长期展望报告中总结道,在未来的三至五年内,全球经济整体增长步伐将放缓,不同国家会出现不同的状况,且存在全球经济下滑的风险。

 

韬睿惠悦指出,美德两国具有合理的中期增长推动因素,而英国负债仍然居高不下,对于利率上调十分敏感。欧洲其他国家与日本经济处境艰难,且很可能继续保持低利率、弱增长、低通胀的现状。报告显示,在循序渐进、但幅度明显的货币增升值与工资水平迅速增长等情况的综合作用下,如今的中国劳动力竞争力已远不及五年前,而在未来的十年中,其增速也将明显低于上一个十年。

 

韬睿惠悦中国区投资咨询总经理毛晓佟说:“鉴于众多经济体先前的紧缩程度,需要采取力度较大的政策激励来抵消经济紧缩和之后的缓慢回调情况,在未来的几年中,政策制定者们很可能要继续承受支持经济增长的压力。如果不出现任何负面事件,我们也需要面对持续而缓慢的经济回弹,以及超长的经济周期。然而,没有哪项因素会一成不变,大多数发达国家与部分发展中国家承受的债务压力让全球经济始终面临着承受负面冲击的危险。虽然众多政策制定者迄今已运用了不少政策杠杆,但这一情况仍然不见好转,不得不令人怀疑政策制定者们的响应能力。”

 

韬睿惠悦在报告中重申了其对投资级别信用债“吸引力不高”的评定,延续了其在近期息差扩大前的降级评定。尽管如此,韬睿惠悦还是建议投资者重新考量信用债配置,并确定在经济风险上升、且可能转而下滑的环境中,调整资产配置是否是明智之举。

 

报告称,目前尚不能直接地明确投资者应当在未来的三至五年内担忧高通胀还是低通胀。一方面,如果私募信贷创造急剧增长,则可能导致某种由极端货币政策产生的通胀压力得到释放。而另一方面,经济数据显示会出现令人忧虑的通胀放缓的惯性。

 

Towers Watson foresees moderate global growth with downside risk


(Nov. 28, 2014,/HRoot.com/) In its annual Secular Outlook, entitled Investing under a cloud, Towers Watson concludes that overall global growth - in the next three to five years - will be moderate and divergent on a country basis and that risks to global growth are skewed to the downside. 

 

It says the US and Germany have reasonable medium-term growth drivers, but that the UK remains heavily indebted and sensitive to interest rate rises. The rest of Europe and Japan are in a difficult economic environment and are in danger of remaining in a negative situation of low interest rates, weak growth and low inflation according to the company. The report says that a combination of gradual but significant currency appreciation and rapid increases in wages means that Chinese labour is now materially less competitive than it was five years ago and that China will grow at a much slower pace over the next decade than it did over the past ten years.

 

Robert Brown, chairman of the Global Investment Committee at Towers Watson, said: “Given the depth of the previous contraction in many economies, the large policy stimulus required to offset it and the subsequent slow recovery, policymakers are likely to remain under pressure to support growth in the next few years. In the absence of a negative event, our base case is for continued but modest recovery and an unusually extended economic cycle. However, all will not remain equal and on-going indebtedness pressures in much of the developed world and some of the emerging world exposes the global economy to the continued prospect of negative shocks. This could be compounded by the inability of many policymakers to respond given how many policy levers have already been pulled.”

 

In the publication the company reiterated its rating of moderately unattractive on investment grade credit which it downgraded prior to recent spread widening.  Despite this, it advises investors to re-visit credit exposures and decide whether alternative asset mixes are preferred in an environment where economic risks are growing and skewed to the downside.

 

In the report, Towers Watson states that it is not immediately clear whether investors should be worrying about high or low inflation over the next three to five years. It says any pent-up upside inflation from extraordinary monetary policy may be unleashed if private sector credit creation increases sharply, whereas the data shows a worrying disinflationary inertia.

 

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