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劳动力严重短缺或制约德国经济增长

(2014-07-04 14:09:51)
标签:

劳动力

短缺

德国

hroot

人力资源

分类: 行业新闻
(2014年7月1日,/HRoot.com)目前,德国正面临严重的劳动力不足及高技能工人短缺现象,这很可能从2015年起给德国的经济增长带来巨大打击。据波士顿咨询公司的研究,欧元区最大的经济体德国的劳动力缺口可能于2020年达到240万人。而到2030年,由于劳动力供给将由目前的4,300万人下降至3,700万人,劳动力短缺将上升至1,000万人。经济学家普遍认为,工业国家的失业率为4%至6%时,这个国家就达到了充分就业状态。而德国5月份的失业率为6.7%,这表明德国已经非常接近充分就业了,预示着劳动力紧张现象将随之出现。与德国的情况相反,欧元区国家的整体失业率为11.7%,其中西班牙等国家有1/4的劳动力没有工作。研究还指出,德国劳动力市场除了面临劳动力数量不足以外,还面临着劳动力质量下降。目前公司很难招到掌握了所需技能的工人,接受过基础教育的工人只有少量剩余,甚至在整个欧洲技术工人都十分稀缺。





Skills shortage threat more severe than previously thought in Germany
(Jul. 1, 2014,/ Financial Times /) Germany is facing a severe labour market shortage, which could hit the country’s growth rate from as early as 2015, reports The Financial Times. Research by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) suggests that the Eurozone’s largest economy, could experience a shortage of up to 2.4 million workers by 2020, growing to 10 million by 2030, as the labour supply shrinks from 43 million people today to an estimated 37 million.  On some measures, Germany is already very close to full employment, generally considered by economists to be when the unemployment rate hits between 4% and 6% in industrialised countries. Germany’s unemployment rate was 6.7% in May and signs of tightness in the labour market are appearing. Close to full employment, Germany stands in stark contrast to the situation in the rest of the Eurozone, which is grappling with a region-wide unemployment rate of 11.7%. In some countries, Spain for example, more than a quarter of the workforce is unemployed. The research highlights the fact that the problem is not just a declining labour force, but that workers do not have the skills that employers are seeking. Among workers with a basic level of education in Germany, there is still a small surplus according to BCG. Complaints about the skills gap are rife among employers across Europe.



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