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海外经济The economic situation overseas (1)

(2011-01-30 15:39:44)
标签:

日本

发达国家

产能利用率

实体经济

德国总理默克尔

财经

德国经济

分类: economic

德国经济在2011年将继续成为海外投资的焦点。美国股市可能面临一次温和的调整。低利率因该会继续保持。虽然利率现在的维一出路是往上调。而债券市场仍然有些许期待。黄金由于没有太多工业价值,对于其在新的一年是否能持续2010年的牛市有所保留。当然我们因该关注大宗商品的上涨势头。尤其是大宗商品的商家本身的动作。

 

German economy in 2011 will continue to be the focus of overseas investment. U.S. stock market may face a mild adjustment. Because of the low interest rates will continue. Although interest rates are now the dimension of a way to increase. The bond market is still slightly expectations. because there have not much  industrial value for gold  ,so it  if can continue to have bull market  in the new year as 2010's we have reservations .  Of course, we concern  the rising trend of commodities in Commodities businesses, especially the action itself.

 

最近国际对冲基金逆转对欧元押注。中国及日本都表示支持结束欧元危机,ECB行长克洛德.特里谢的强硬言论也帮助了提振欧元人气。中国在言论和资金上对欧元的支持都是对卖空欧元起到了很好的抑制作用。德国总理默克尔在瑞士达沃斯经济论坛上强调只有债务危机没有欧元危机,而目前欧元区面临的是如何有效的加强合作,提振经济。

 

Reversal of the recent international hedge funds bet on the euro. China and Japan have expressed support for the end of the crisis of the euro, ECB President Jean-Claude. Trichet's tough talk the euro also helped boost sentiment. China in the speech and financial support for the euro is very good inhibition for the euro on short-selling played . German Chancellor Angela Merkel  stressed not only the euro crisis, debt crisis, and now the euro zone faces is how to effectively strengthen cooperation and boost the economy on Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

 

日本的国债债务是西方发达国家中最高的。负债其实不是主要问题,问题是经济要有增长,财政要有盈余,英国的负债也很高,但是他们经济还是有增长,财政。而日本的经济还处于通缩状态,债务是GDP200% 。最近国际评级机构下调了日本的国债信用评级,以后日本发行债券进行融资将面临会增加更高的成本。

 

Japan's bond debt is the highest in Western developed countries. 
In fact, debt is not a major problem, the problem is to have growth in the economy, financial need surplus,Britain's debt is also high, but they still have economic growth. The Japanese economy is still in a state of deflation. Recent international rating agencies lowered the credit rating of Japan's national debt, issue bonds to finance the future of Japan will face higher costs .

 

发达国家的产能利用率的不足尤其是房地产等领域的常能过剩。产能利用率不足给发达国家带来一系列的问题。失业率高涨进而影响投资消费。本次金融危机始于金融行业的弊病,后来波及实体经济。而现在实体经济的问题又反过来金融与财政。在这样的环境下,各国银行呆坏账积累,政府财政状况必然也不好,会出现问题。而失业率高涨又使各种社会福利开支增加,从而进一步造成公共财政赤字的积累。从而表现为主权债务危机。

 

Developed countries, lack of capacity utilization, especially the areas of real estate can often be excessive. Lack of capacity utilization to bring a series of problems developed. Rising unemployment in turn affect investment spending. The current financial crisis began in the shortcomings of the financial sector, and later spread to the real economy. And now the real economy in turn, financial and fiscal issues. In such circumstances, the accumulation of national banks bad debts, the Government certainly is not good financial situation, there will be problems. The unemployment rate has risen and the increase in social welfare spending, which further contributed to the accumulation of public deficits. Thus the performance of a sovereign debt crisis.

 

发达国家目前很难很快走出困境。如果像当年日本经济泡沫破裂以后经历了长大10年甚至更长的低迷期,这种可能性也存在。所以,发达国家应该增加投资,这样对资本产品的需求就会增加,产能过剩就会减少,就业率就会增加,而民众对未来的预期也会变好。这样经济增长就会加快,对房地产的需求就会增加。金融产品呆坏账自然会减少。发达国家的主权债务危机和地方政府债务危机也会逐渐消除,实现一种良性循环。

 

Developed countries it is difficult to quickly out of the woods. If, as the Japanese economy with 10 years or even longer downturn after experienced a growth bubble burst , this possibility exists. Therefore, developed countries should increase investment, so the demand for capital goods will increase, will reduce excess capacity, the employment rate will increase, while the people of the future is also expected to get better. This will speed up economic growth, demand for real estate will increase. Will naturally reduce the bad debt of financial products. Sovereign debt crises in developed countries and local governments will gradually eliminate the debt crisis, to achieve a virtuous circle

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