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2011 是一个充满机会的一年/ Look forward 2011

(2010-12-05 14:43:45)
标签:

财经

社保基金

回归

政权交接

常态

杂谈

分类: economic

经济要回归常态,更要回归根本。

 

回归根本就是回归内需主导的经济发展模式,回到以CPI与就业主导的货币发放模式,将资金引入实体经济,限制资本项目,把不负责任的美联储扔到一边。近期中央多个官员频繁表态“ 从适度宽松”到”回归常态“。意味着未来一年的货币信贷政策转型已经启动。常态意味着未来的货币条件要能维系当下人民币资产的估值水平。

随着今年4月以来中央对房地产市场的宏观调控,预计明年国内二三线城市的房价会下降,一线城市房价稳中有升。预测月底可能会加息,以及明年可能会加息一之两次,由于政府在为政权交接做准备,预计2011年中开始,政府会出台一些保持刺激经济的措施。

 

Economy to return to normal,
 
Back to basics is a return to domestic demand-led model of economic development, return to the CPI dominated the issue of currency and employment patterns, the funds into the real economy, limited capital, to throw aside the irresponsible Fed. Recently several officials of the Central frequent statement "from the moderate liberal" to "return to normal." Means that the monetary and credit policy for the coming year transition has already started. Normal means that monetary conditions in the future to be able to maintain the current level of RMB valuation of assets.
   
 

诸如年初我们说今年的股市机会在中小板块和创业板。虽然十月的短暂行情让很多人开心了但是大部分人没有挣到钱。其实7月初社保基金开始悄然建仓,社保基金总是能准确的入市和出逃;;-)。可以适当关注高铁经济圈,适当建仓可中长期持有。以及我们所熟知的新能源领域,不过在这是一个长期的预期。消费领域板块风险较大。国家放开航天低空市场给航天机械制造业和相关的服务业带来商机。

 

Since April this year, with the central government's macro-control real estate market, second and third tier cities in China next year prices will decline, prices steadily tier cities. Interest rates may be predicted at the end, and next year would raise interest rates one of the two, as the Government in preparation for the handover, in 2011, the government will introduce some measures to stimulate the economy remain.
 
 Such as the beginning of this year's stock market opportunities for our small plate and in the GEM. Although short-term market in October a lot of people happy, but most people do not make money. Due attention to high-speed rail economic circle, the appropriate long-term  be held. And we know the new energy field, but in this is a long-term expectations. Consumption sector risks. National open space to low-altitude aerospace mechanical manufacturing and market-related services business opportunities.
 

黄金明年估计从现有价格会涨到1480一盎司,但是风险更大了,要谨慎。城市的进程加快,给城市绿化行业带来无限商机。总之,2011 是一个充满机会的一年。

 

 Next year's estimated price of gold will rise from the existing 1480 an ounce or little more 2011 <wbr>是一个充满机会的一年/ <wbr>Look <wbr>forward <wbr>2011, but the greater risk, and to be careful. Speeding up the city, to the city business opportunities green industry. In short, 2011 will be  a year of opportunity.
 
   
 

 

 

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