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欧洲三港到岸价反弹至100美元/吨,交易商的问题将持续

(2010-11-03 09:17:06)
标签:

煤炭

价格

交易

上涨

coal

价格指数

国际

股票

财经

Currency-fueled CIF ARA prices rally past $100/mt, traders question sustainability

 

Spot prices of thermal coal delivered into Europe jumped over $3/mt on-week to breeze past the $100/mt mark and stand at 23-month highs last week, although trading sources insisted the rally was mainly driven by euro-dollar exchange rates rather than supply and demand factors.

上周发往欧洲的动力煤价格现货价格上涨查过3美元/吨超过了100美元/吨水平,达到23个月的最高点,然而交易的相关人士坚持反弹主要是受到欧元兑美元的汇率影响而不是供给和需求因素推动的。

The Platts daily 90-day CIF ARA price was pegged at $100.15/ mt on October 14, up $3.20/mt on-week, and its highest level since November 2008 when it was a weekly assessment. South African Richards Bay 90-day prices eased up $1.60/mt to $90.55/mt despite limited buying interest.

10月14日普氏90天欧洲三港CIF价格固定在100.15美元/吨,处于2008年11月份以来最高水平,当时他还是一个周的估价。尽管购买兴趣有限南非理查德港90天价格回落1.6美元到90.55美元/吨。

With the Coaltrans Amsterdam conference due to start on October 18, traders said two big talking points for delegates would be whether the rally was sustainable and also whether much-heralded Chinese and Indian demand would return to support origin FOB pricing in the international seaborne market.

随着阿姆斯特丹国际煤炭会议将于10月18日召开,交易商表示两个具有代表性的讨论点将是这种反弹趋势是否会持续已经中国和印度需求的恢复是否会国际海运市场原产地离岸价格起到支撑作用。

Some traders insisted that demand was slowly returning to a previously stifled market. However, Switzerland-based trader said that he did not believe that growing European demand pull was behind firmer CIF ARA prices. Instead he pointed to recent strength in a buoyant euro, which pushed up to $1.4122, a near-nine month high against the dollar on October 14. A stronger euro makes dollar-denominated coal cheaper for European consumers.

一些贸易商坚持认为需求正慢慢恢复是对先前市场的终结,然而,瑞典的贸易商表示他不认为需求的拉动是欧洲到岸价坚挺背后的原因,相反他指出最近被推至1.4122美元的强势欧元才是真正的原因,欧元兑美元的汇率在10月14日达到近9个月以来的最高点。欧元的走强是以美元计价的煤对于欧洲消费者来说更加便宜。

“If you take coal prices, chart them in euros and strip out the currency effect, you have a declining price,” the trader said. “ Everyone’s talking the prices up in terms of fundamental demand. But the truth is Europeans are buying coal in euros which is cheaper than it was a month ago.”

“如果你把煤炭价格用欧元列出来,剔除货币的影响因素,你会得到一个下降的价格,”该贸易商表示。“每个人都在基本需求层面谈论煤炭价格的上涨。但是事实上欧洲人正在用比一个月前还便宜的价格购买煤炭。”

A second Switzerland-based trader said he was surprised at the strength of spot European-delivered bids, “given the size of coal stocks at ARA and, with the possible exception of Scandinavia, negligible coal demand in the region.”

第二个瑞典贸易商表示他惊讶于欧洲的现货交付能力,考虑到欧洲三港的煤炭库存大小和可能存在异常的本该是有着微不足道的煤炭需求的斯堪的纳维亚地区。

Fixed price physical pays

现货支付固定的价格

Traders disagreed on the extent to how much higher-priced physical fixed price DES ARA deals were influencing bullish paper market sentiment. While one trader said that current physical deals were aligned with paper values, another pointed out that the API2 index, against which coal swaps are settled, is derived from spot physical trades.

贸易商不赞同处于高位现货固定价格的DES ARA交易对正在上涨的票据市场情绪有多大的影响幅度。一个交易商指出,目前的现货交易和票据市场的价值保持一致,另一个则指出作为煤炭掉期交易的标准的API2指数是从现货实际交易中产生。

One utility source said that despite the higher pays in the prompt DES ARA market, he did not believe there was much demand in Europe. “The DES ARA market is at the moment insulated from the massive stocks in Europe as well as the supply side issues [from Colombia and Russia],” he said.

一位消息人士称尽管较高的支付存在于DES ARA市场,但他不认为欧洲存在着很大的需求。“DES ARA市场现在和欧洲大量的库存以及来自哥伦比亚和俄罗斯的供应问题是隔离开的。

He explained that some utilities were selling coal index-linked further out and buying back cargoes on a fixed price basis.

他解释说一些公共机构正在出售和煤炭指数相关的远期交易而以固定的价格回购货物。

 One source said higher pays in the prompt DES AR market were being done by players to complement their long front-month paper positions.

一位消息人士说较高的DES ARA提示市场的支付是由于参与者补他们的即月的仓造成的。

Other traders said concerns about availability rather than demand were playing on buyers’ minds, citing supply tightness in Colombia and Russia. One source said persistent heavy rain had impacted on major Colombian producer Cerrejon’s production to the tune of around 1 million mt, although he stressed that its throughput had not been affected due to sufficient stockpiles. “The issues shouldn’t affect their Q4 program,” he said.其他贸易商认为由于哥伦比亚和俄罗斯的供应紧张造成的对煤炭的可获得性的担心而不是需求正左右买家的想法。一位消息人士称持续的大雨已经对哥伦比亚主要煤炭生产商Cerejon的生产产生影响,对其产量造成100万吨的影响。尽管他强调由于充足的库存煤炭吞度量还未收到影响。”他表示“这些问题应该不会影响他们四季度的计划”。

 One trader said that a lack of availability of higher calorific value coal in Europe was certainly one price driver. He said that users who usually bought German and Polish high cv and low ash material up to 7,000 kcal/kg NAR were having difficulty sourcing it. “Some have been looking at buying Colombian coal instead but that market is tight at the moment,” he added.

一位贸易商说欧洲高热值的煤炭的供应不足肯定是一个价格驱动因素。他说过去通常购买德国和波兰高达7000大卡NAR高热值、低灰分的原料的用户现在在采购他们上面遇到了困难。“一些人过去一直把购买哥伦比亚煤炭作为替代,但是哥伦比亚市场现在处于紧张状态,”他补充说。

 However, a Switzerland-based source argued that players in need of higher cv coal could “just as easily” source it from burgeoning ARA stockpiles.然而,一个瑞典消息人士认为需要高热值的煤炭的参与者可以很容易的从充足的ARA库存里购买到。

 Another source said that over the last few months, some coal procurement teams had decided to hold off from buying spot coal “hoping for lower prices,” which had not materialized.

 另有消息称在过去的几个月中,一些煤炭采购团队已经决定暂缓购买现货煤炭以期更低价格而没能实现。

Richards Bay market ‘depressed’

理查德港市场令人失望

Meanwhile, index-linked South African cargoes continue to trade way below API4 prices. One utility source described the Richards Bay FOB market as “pretty depressed,” pointing to physical prices discounted to paper stretching out to the first quarter of 2011.

和指数相关的南非货位继续以低于API4的价格进行交易。一条公共消息描述理查德港离岸平仓价市场为“相当令人失望,”同时指出现货价格贴现于票据市场将持续到2011年的第一季度。

 In late September, Richards Bay spot cargoes were heard traded as low as $81.50/mt prompting Indian traders to make a brief buying foray in the market. Since then prices have accelerated past the $90/mt mark, with most sources attributing the rally to firming API4 paper prices buoyed by bullish macroeconomic factors. 在九月下旬,理查德港现货传闻以低至81.50美元/吨的价格进行交易促使印度贸易商做出了在市场上作出直接购买的决定。从那时起价格已经快速飙升过了90美元/吨大关,对此大部分人把这种回暖归因于受宏观经济上扬因素影响的API4票据市场价格的上浮。

“South African coal is being delivered to India, but it’s not being bought in an aggressive bidding process as it has done in the past,” the source added. 南非的煤炭一直被运往印度,但这种过程不像过去那样以一个积极的出价购买,”该消息人士补充说。

Another source said that while earlier in the week, the Richards Bay spot market looked as if it was going to be offered down aggressively, the weakness in the dollar had helped support FOB prices. “There’s been some decent buying interest from those with exposure to the Asian market,” he said.

另一个消息人士说在本周的早些时候,理查德港现货市场看来有下行的趋势,疲软的美元对离岸价格起到了支撑作用。“有些来自亚洲市场的购买意愿,”他表示。

“The Indians have been in the market, they are buying a bit more now that prices have come off,” one northern European trader said midweek when spot prices temporarily dipped to south of $87/mt.在本周中当现货价格短暂下滑到87美元/吨时,以为北欧的贸易商表示“印度人已经在市场上,现在价格已经松动他们正购买更多的煤炭。”

However, a Switzerland-based trader said he had yet to see any evidence that Indian buyers had returned to the South African market. “I’m not sure, I think there has been a small correction because prices went up too far the last two weeks, but it hasn’t brought them down to levels that Indian buyers are comfortable with,” he said, adding that he thought Indian buyers were waiting for prices to fall to the $85-$86/mt level.然而,一位瑞典贸易商表示他还未发现任何印度买家已返回南非市场的证据,“我不太肯定,我认为由于过去两周价格上涨的太快虽然出现了一下小的变动但还没到让印度买家可以接受的水平,”他表示,此外他补充说他认为印度买家在等待价格下降到85-86美元/吨水平。

Market roundup

市场综述

CIF ARA and Richards Bay prompt prices diverged October 11, with sources saying European-delivered cargoes were trading above rising paper API2 prices due to tightening supply stems and a marginal pickup in demand ahead of winter.

10月11日欧洲三港CIF价格和理查德港价格迅速分化,有消息称由于供应紧张和冬季来临前的边际需求上升的原因运往欧洲的货物正以高于不断上涨的API2价格进行交易。

A December 50,000 mt DES Rotterdam generic origin cargo was done at $97.45/mt on globalCOAL, up $0.65/ mt on-day, before a same-sized January AR shipment went through at $98.50/mt, also onscreen.

一单12月份50000吨一般原产地货物鹿特丹到岸价在环球交易平台以97.45美元/吨价格被交易,比前一个交易日上涨了0.65美元,然后同样在屏幕上相同数量的一月份AR装运的货物以98.50美元/吨达成交易。

 In the FOB Richards Bay market, an investment bank bought a 50,000 mt cargo of November-loading South African coal at $87/mt, down $0.75/mt on overnight levels. The deal was executed by London Commodity Brokers. Later in the session, a 25,000 mt November clip traded $0.50/mt higher at $87.50/mt on the globalCOAL screen.

在理查德港离岸市场,一家投资银行以87美元/吨购买了十一月份装载的50000吨的南非煤炭,比前一交易日下降了0.75美元。这单合同由伦敦商品经济人公司执行。环球煤炭交易屏幕上显示随后一笔25000吨的十以月份以高0.50美元的87.50美元/吨成交。

According to one European market source, a South African producer was seen looking to fix a spot capesize vessel from Richards Bay to India. “That’s a sign that maybe the Indians are coming back to the market, “ he said. 根据一位欧洲市场的消息人士称一个南非生产商正在定从理查德港到印度的一条好望角型船。“这是印度人可能回到市场的的一个迹象”,他表示。

In the floating price market, a November Richards Bay panamax traded at a $3/mt discount to the API4 index, while a December 50,000 mt DES AR cargo was done at $0.40/mt over API4.在价格浮动的市场行情下,理查德港十一月份巴拿马级煤炭已低于API4指数3美元/吨的价格成交,同时一笔50000吨煤炭欧洲到岸价以高于API4指数0.40美元/吨的价格成交 。

Cargoes of prompt-loading November Richards Bay coal continued to trade lower October 12, sparking debate in the Atlantic market as to whether the lower levels were attracting Indian buyers. 10月12日理查德港11月份即期装载煤炭交易继续低迷,引发大西洋市场关于低价是否正吸引印度买家的争论。

Two November shipments, one for 100,000 mt and the other for 50,000 mt went through at $86.50/mt on the globalCOAL screen, $0.50-$1/mt than traded levels the previous day. One trading source told Platts he had heard of a bilateral trade at the same level for a November South African capesize vessel.两笔十一月份装运的交易以86.50美元/吨的价格成交比前一天的成交就爱个低了0.50美元-1美元,其中一笔是10万吨另一笔是5万吨。一个交易的消息人士告诉普氏,他了解到一笔11月份好望角级双边贸易在同样的价格水平达成交易。

 Further out, a Q1 50,000 mt/month consignment of South African coal traded at $92/mt onscreen.

他进一步指出在环球煤炭交易屏幕上第一季度每个月15万吨的南非煤炭交易以92美元/吨成交。

In the CIF ARA market prompt prices were stable, as a November 50,000 mt DES Rotterdam multi-origin cargo with EFP terms was done at $97.75/mt, within the previous day’s bid-offer range.

CIF欧洲三港即期市场价格平稳,因为一份11月份附带EFP条款的50000吨鹿特丹多原产地货物到岸价合同按照97.75美元/吨成交,这一价格在前一天的报价范围之内。

In the floating price market, a 25,000 mt Newcastle parcel was done at a $2/mt discount to the globalCOAL Newc index.

在价格浮动的纽卡斯尔市场,一笔25000吨的交易以低于环球煤炭Newc指数2美元/吨的价格成交。

DES ARA spot eyes $100/mt amid paper rally

欧洲现货到岸价在票据市场的反弹中达到100美元/吨

CIF ARA spot prices moved up a dollar closer to $100/ mt October 13 amid a high-volume buy-up in the API2 coal derivatives market.

10月13日在API2衍生品市场大量的买进行为氛围中欧洲现货到岸价上升了1美元接近100美元/吨。

A November DES AR 50,000 mt multi-origin cargo with EFP terms traded via LCB at $98.90/mt in a utility-to- utility deal, up $1.15/mt on-day, as the 90-day CIF ARA spot market nudged closer to $100/mt, a level not traded since early November 2008.

一笔十一月份由LCB执行的50000吨DES AR多原产地货物附带EFP条款的交易以98.90美元达成,比前一天上涨了1.15美元,由于90天欧洲到岸价格逼近了100美元/吨,这一价格自2008年11月份以来从未实现交易的价格。

Earlier in the session, a December Rotterdam-only 50,000 mt parcel went through on the globalCOAL screen at $97.75/mt, with a northwest European utility-trader buying from an investment bank.

在前文中提到的,一份12月份50000吨鹿特丹合同在环球煤炭交易平台上以97.75美元/吨达成交易,该交易是西北欧的实际使用交易商从一家投资银行购得。

After the 5pm timestamp for Platts assessments, a December DES AR 50,000 mt cargo was given at $99/mt onscreen.

在下午五点普氏价格评估截止时间后,在屏幕上给出了50000吨12月份AR到岸货物价格为99美元/吨的交易。

In the FOB Richards Bay market, a December panamax traded via broker GFI at $91/mt, up $1.50/mt on overnight levels. 在理查德港离岸平仓市场,一笔通过GFI经纪公司的12月份巴拿马级合同已91美元/达成,比前一天上涨了1.5美元。

Some traders turned their attention to securing coal further out in the FOB markets on the globalCOAL screen. A 300,000 mt batch of Richards Bay coal for loading throughout 2011 traded at $95.25/mt while two samesized 2011 shipments of Newcastle material traded at $99.50/mt and $100.50/mt. 通过环球煤炭交易平台的屏幕可以看出一些交易商正把他们的注意力转向锁定在离岸平仓市场上的未来支出。2011年全年装载的300000吨的分批次理查德港煤炭以95.25美元/吨的价格成交,而其他两笔相同数量的2011年装运的纽卡斯尔港煤炭分别已99.50美元/吨和100.50美元/吨的价格成交。

In the floating price market, two Q1-11 Newcastle FOB consignments of 150,000 mt and 75,000 mt traded at a $0.30/mt discount to the globalCOAL Newc index.在价格波动的市场,两笔数量分别为15000和75000吨的纽卡斯尔港离岸平常价11年第一季度合同已低于环球煤炭Newc指数0.30美元的价格成交。

 Meanwhile, South African spot cargoes continued to trade at hefty discounts to API4 paper prices. A November panamax was done at $3.10/mt under API4 on globalCOAL.同时南非现货市场继续以低于API4票据市场的价格成交。在环球煤炭交易平台一笔十一月份巴拿马级合同以低于API4指数3.10美元的价格成交。

 European-delivered prices firmed over $1/mt to breach the highly anticipated $100/mt mark in busy physical trading October 14.

10月14日在频繁的实际交易中,发往欧洲的价格在冲破大部分预期的100美元/吨后稳定在高于其1美元的水平。

 Fixed price liquidity focused on the January DES ARA contract. A January 50,000 mt generic origin cargo was paid at $100/mt on the globalCOAL platform early on, setting the tone for the day. LCB executed two similar January deals at $100/mt and $100.50/mt before a fourth cargo changed hands at $100/mt onscreen.固定价格的支付集中于一月份欧洲三港DES合同。早些时候在环球煤炭交易平台一份一月份50000吨一般原产地煤炭只顾了100美元/吨,为一天的交易定了基调。LCB执行了两份来遏制的一月份交易分别在100美元/吨和100.50美元/吨,随后四分之一的的换手交易都以100美元/吨的价格成交通过屏幕显示。

 In the December market, a same-sized Rotterdam-only shipment went through onscreen at $99.75/mt.十二月份的市场上,一笔同等数量的鹿特丹港装运的合同在屏幕上显示以99.75美元/吨成交。

 In the floating price market, two December DES AR 50,000 mt shipments traded on globalCOAL at $0.30/ mt premiums to API2. A 50,000 mt November Richards Bay parcel was done at $3.25/mt under API4, while Ginga Petroleum brokered a deal for three Q1-11 South African panamaxes at $0.85/mt below the same index.

 

在浮动价格市场,在环球煤炭交易平台上显示两笔12月份DES AR贸易条件的50000吨船运合同已高于API2指数0.30美元/吨的价格成交。一笔十一月份50000吨理查德港货物以低于API4指数3.25美元/吨价格成交,同时Ginga Petroleum 代理了一笔11年第一季度三艘巴拿马级船的交易以低于API4指数0.85美元/吨的价格成交。

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