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奥斯卡最佳影片奖提名之热门影片The Top Ten Oscar Contenders For Best Picture

(2011-10-21 22:55:44)
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离下一届奥斯卡颁奖典礼还有几个月,各奖项的正式提名也一样。以下是奥斯卡最佳影片奖提名十大热门竞争者.

 

美国电影艺术与科学学院所颁发的奥斯卡小金人,©A.M.P.A.S

离下一届奥斯卡颁奖典礼还有几个月,各奖项的正式提名也一样。这一次,最佳影片奖的提名不再限于特定数目的影片,所有获得足够票数的影片均有资格获得奥斯卡最佳影片奖的提名。可能有五部电影被提名,也许是十部,也可能是七部或八部,甚至11部也说不定。

 这一提名流程是最佳选择,以保证每部获得足够提名票的电影都得到提名。当然,让所有人都满意是不可能的;但是,在过去几年中,美国电影学院非常努力地在认真考虑改善提名流程的方法,并做出大家都喜欢的颁奖典礼。我个人希望他们能保持这种提名方式,看看最后有多少部影片角逐最佳影片,这挺有趣。

 那么,哪些电影可能获得令人垂涎的提名呢?以下是奥斯卡最佳影片奖提名十大热门竞争者……

 

《生命之树》(The Tree of Life)——泰伦斯·马力克(Terrence Malick)的这部杰作是竞争提名中最毫无疑问的影片。如果该片没有获得提名,那么将成为奥斯卡历史上最大的震惊事件之一。作为今年最受好评且最为热望的影片,《生命之树》注定要为所有参与此片的人都赢得大大小小的各种提名。它将被视作最佳影片的竞争者之一,直到信封打开之时。

 

 《点球成金》(Moneyball)——这部影片血统强大,由史蒂文·泽里安(Steven Zaillian)和艾伦·索金(Aaron Sorkin)担任编剧;质量也同样很高;导演是贝尼特·米勒(Bennett Miller),该片让人无法不爱。我不知道为什么只有棒球能够如此完美地隐喻生活,但是我知道该片的演员和制片人在这两方面都大获成功。看样子,布拉德·皮特参演的两部影片都将入围最佳影片提名。

《相助》(The Help)——这部影片改编自同名小说,导演塔特·泰勒(Tate Taylor)及小说的名气,让该片成为最佳影片提名的强有力竞争者;电影学院经常会青睐这种鼓舞人心的故事,尽管它们涉及到了不光彩的历史背景和人性的丑陋。小说中的人物启发受到了很大争议,如果该片没有受其影响,那么《相助》可能会像《弱点》(The Blind Side)一样,令那些认为该片“感觉太良好”而无法提名的人惊讶。

《战马》(War Horse)——这又是一部奥斯卡奖呼声很高的电影,虽然史蒂芬·斯皮尔伯格(Steven Spielberg)已经远离奥斯卡很久了,但显然,这次他携此片强势回归了;当电影简介出来后,我们就知道,这片应该“铁定”能获得提名。当然,该片还未上映,但是在下线前,该片将是观众的优选。预告片非常华丽,让人即刻就能明白这部影片所要表达的意义。

《总统杀局》(The Ides of March)——这是演员乔治·克鲁尼自导自演的一部片子,他知道如何指导其他演员并让他们来控制电影的叙事。该片演员阵容强大,执导出色、利于表演,展现了美国大选中政府强迫官员达成的妥协及他们都太急于接受的妥协;凭借这些,该片将会吸引电影学院的大量投票。

《传染病》(Contagion)——该片故事的真实感和重要性、星光熠熠的演员阵容,以及导演史蒂文·索德伯格(Steven Soderbergh)将重点放在演员上,这些都吸引着奥斯卡。2009年流感爆发时,政府的处理方式令公众愤怒;唯一可能对该片进军奥斯卡产生不良影响的便是这一挥之不去的情感;虽然当时确实很危险,流感大规模爆发,但有些人认为公众的愤怒有些反应过度。但是,我认为这种情绪影响该片入围的概率非常低。

《胡佛传》(J. Edgar)——很长一段时间里,克林特·伊斯特伍德(Clint Eastwood)的影片一部接一部地在奥斯卡出局;这部富有争议的传记片似乎能够打破他在奥斯卡上受到的连续冷落。关于胡佛性取向的争议可能会分散大众对于此片的关注点,并影响该片入围奥斯卡的机会;但是另一方面,从长远来看,这种争议可能对影片有所助益。

 

 《杀戮》(Carnage)——罗曼·波兰斯基(Roman Polanski)的这部黑色喜剧让演员走向台前,在充满幽默和转折的过山车式感情变化中,让故事发展下去。波兰斯基的上一部影片没能入围奥斯卡奖提名,该片似乎可能让他再次进入奥斯卡奖的角逐之中。显然,一些演员也会获得提名,这可能意味着会出现演员之间的巅峰对决,除非电影学院决定让其中一些明星成为最佳配角的人选。

 

 《龙纹身的女孩》(The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)——大卫·芬奇(David Fincher)正迅速成为电影学院的宠儿,但是一直以来,他都再三被奥斯卡奖拒之门外。这一次,他再次强势出击,采用了全球热卖的小说为故事蓝本,进行了非常棒的改编,这部电影的预告片几乎已是奥斯卡水准。我本人已经看过8分钟的特别预告片,我能证明,这部影片本身也许能够超越其宣传和炒作。

 

 《午夜巴黎》(Midnight in Paris)——伍迪·艾伦(Woody Allen)的这部新片已经受到了非常广泛的喜爱和好评,登上了众多“年度最佳”榜单。猜测者会说,艾伦一直是奥斯卡奖的强有力竞争者,他们说的没错。因此,在多年来错失提名后,我认为,艾伦能够凭借这部囊括了许多人的影片,入围今年的最佳影片奖提名。

 好了,现在读者们已经看到我列出的最佳影片提名的十大热门竞争者。

 但是这里并未囊括所有竞争者,而且随着奥斯卡奖提名的日益临近,一些影片会火起来,一些则会受到冷遇,形势可能会发生变化.

因此,让我们来看看那些可能获得提名影片。

 首先,我将列出五部影片,它们最有可能取代上述十部影片中的任意一部……

 

《艺术家》(The Artist)——影响该片入围最佳影片奖的主要因素是其外国血统,因为奥斯卡设有最佳外语片奖,且它们很少进入其他奖项提名。但除此以外,这部影片是一个艺术瑰宝,它大胆冒险,缔造出一种永恒经典的感觉,无视传统、大胆突破,这是外国影片很难做到的。

 

 《后裔》(The Descendants)——这是乔治·克鲁尼的又一部较好影片,该片更可能获得最佳男演员的提名,因为他不太可能获得两个最佳影片的提名。我认为,在其两部电影中,演员阵容更大、政治主题更强的影片更容易获得最佳影片的提名。但是,我敢保证,这两部中绝对有一部会获得提名。

 

 《铁娘子》(The Iron Lady)——历史剧?没错。受人喜爱的演员饰演伟大的领袖人物?是的。另一方面,这部电影可能不会出现电影学院投票者所期望的大胆冒险或角度,因此很难预知这部影片的命运。但是有一点是肯定的:梅丽尔·斯特里普(Meryl Streep)能让任何影片都成为奥斯卡奖的竞争者,尤其是展现其演技的杰作。

 

 《特别响,非常近》(Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)——这是一部关于911故事的影片,大量的情感流露,以U2乐队的歌曲配乐,主角是一位信奉和平主义的素食主义者。听起来像是入围定了?不尽然,因为该部电影的书受到了一些差评,而该片可能在煽情上用力过猛。但是,演员、导演和编剧都是一流的,并且都与奥斯卡奖有很深的渊源,因此该片入围与否也挺让人左右为难的.

《哈利·波特与死亡圣器(下)》(Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II)——哈利·波特系列电影经历十年后,最后一部该系列影片的票房非常成功,该片获得提名就犹如整个系列都获得提名一样。该片也是整个系列中最好的一部,因此,提名致敬整个系列也是源自该部电影自身的优点。而如果它能获得提名,那么显然是向商业大片获得最高荣誉的目标迈进了一大步,因此,该部影片承载了很多可能。

 接下来,让我们看看最佳影片奖提名的六匹黑马……

 

《抗癌的我》(50/50)——该片令人惊喜,它完美地平衡了喜剧、毒品笑料和面临癌症及可能的死亡。演员的表演都很出色,如果我是奥斯卡学院的投票者,我绝对会在每个奖项里都给该片投上一票。一些具有启示性的片段真的会让观众对人物的产生深刻理解,往往会让你重新定义一两个小时前这个人所做的事。这部电影有很多亮点,但是它只是一匹黑马,因为我认为,电影学院的投票者们可能不会对大麻的普遍使用和毒品笑料产生强烈的共鸣。就个人而言,这是少数能够触动我感情的影片之一,我自己就曾目睹好几个朋友死于疾病,我的妻子在过去许多年都在同使用药用大麻的病人工作,她是一个主张大麻政策改革的律师。

 

 《存身》(Take Shelter)——该片并不属于通常会获得提名的影片类型,《存身》是一部小制作独立电影,但看上去像一部预算更大的片子,有点像科幻/魔幻片,也可以被看作是纯粹的心理剧,但是没法确定该片真正属于哪一类。迈克尔·珊农(Michael Shannon)又一次成为热门人物,在影片中的人物刻画给人留下了深刻印象。导演杰夫·尼克尔斯(Jeff Nichols)2007年的《猎枪往事》(Shotgun Stories)是当年最好的影片之一,但遗憾的是,没能入围奥斯卡奖提名;因此,我希望这次他不要再被忽略。

《伴娘》(Bridesmaids)——纯喜剧很少会获得奥斯卡最佳影片的提名,尤其是特别乱糟糟的影片。但是,如果有哪部乱糟糟的喜剧值得该奖项考虑的话,《伴娘》就是。出色的表演和年度最好的一些女性角色,让这部影片成为了大众和评论家追捧的电影;从Twitter上可以看出,许多好莱坞影星也很喜爱该片。我当然希望《伴娘》能得到许多当之无愧的认可。

《猩球崛起》(Rise of the Planet of the Apes)——这是一匹终极黑马,因为它似乎不可能入围最佳影片的提名。但是,如果该片入围了该项提名,也别惊讶,因为这并不是一部简单的科幻动作片;该片的剧情很强,有一个名为凯撒的强大主角,虽然该角色是通过三维电脑动画渲染制作而成,但是凯撒是今年所有影片中,展现最为充分的主角。该片受到影评人和观众的巨大好评,奥斯卡学院愿意选择大胆、将绝妙的叙事变成暑期大片的电影作为赢家。

《告密者》(The Whistleblower)——该片取自一个鲜为人知的真实故事(部分原因在于它被忽略并一直处于保密状态),揭露了波斯尼亚(Bosnia)有系统的儿童性奴贩卖案和强迫卖淫案,该案涉及联合国和私人武装公司戴恩公司(DynCorp)。片中许多名字都是虚构,包括涉案公司的名称;但是其故事取自真实事件,是法院的大案件,后续一些书籍也以此为主题;且该片还涉及到重大的社会问题、对腐败和滥用权力的指控,电影学院投票者通常会对此类影片投入很多关注。

《青少年》(Young Adult)——该片尚未上映,但已展现出提名强有力竞争者的特征。导演贾森·雷特曼(Jason Reitman)和编剧迪亚波罗·科蒂(Diablo Cody)再次合作,两人的上一部合作影片《朱诺》(Juno)吸引了众人的目光,也获得了奥斯卡奖的提名,包括最佳影片奖。在过去三年里,雷特曼的影片曾获得两次最佳影片奖提名,这意味着他肯定在影片的提名中起着一定的作用。因此,他再次同科蒂合作,讲述一个关于成年人回家的故事,充满机智趣味,该片似乎是个有力的竞争者。除了其故事设定可能对于学院的投票者来说有些过于“前卫”——一个女人试图破坏一个男人的婚姻,将他从妻儿身边夺走。从奥斯卡奖的角度来看,该片的喜剧色彩则让它的“前卫”风险更大,虽然从观众的角度来说也许并非如此,因为该片挺热闹,查理兹·塞隆(Charlize Theron)的表演似乎很成功,在破坏别人家庭的时候还能表现得富有同情心和善良。

这就是我的名单了。十大热门,五大替补,六大黑马。还有一些没有提及的影片也可能入围最佳影片奖的提名,如《我家买了动物园》(We Bought A Zoo),但是这些影片中,有些我并不十分了解,有些我觉得不够强势,不足以替代上述名单上的影片。

 就目前的形势而言,我认为这些都是最好的选择,并且我很肯定,最终的提名中,绝大多数将出自我所列出的影片,且我敢打赌,大多会出自十大热门名单。

The next Academy Award ceremony is still several months away, as are the official nominations. This time around, instead of nominating a specific number of films for the award for Best Picture, the Oscars are nominating whichever films get enough votes to qualify for a nomination. That could be five films, it could be ten, but it could also be seven or eight or maybe even eleven for all we know.

This process of nomination is the best option, guaranteeing that every film receiving enough nomination votes will enjoy a nomination. You can’t make everyone happy, of course, but the Academy has been trying pretty hard the last few years to seriously consider options to improve the nomination process and provide a ceremony that everyone can enjoy. I for one hope they keep this method of nomination, and it’ll be interesting to see how many films end up getting a nod for Best Picture.

So which films are likely to get a coveted nomination? Here are the Top Ten Contenders For Academy Award Nominations For Best Picture

The Tree of LifeTerrence Malick’s masterpiece is the most obvious “sure thing” nomination in the race. A lack of a nod would instantly rank as one of the biggest shocks in modern Oscar history. One of the best-reviewed and most ambitious films of the year, it seems destined to rack up a long list of nominations for just about everyone involved. And it’s got to be considered one of the films that’s in the race all the way until that envelop is opened.

Moneyball — With a pedigree that’s as hard to beat (written by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin) as its quality and heart, this film by Bennett Miller is impossible not to love. I don’t know why baseball is the only sport that so perfectly serves as metaphor about life, but this cast and filmmakers definitely hit a home run on both counts. Looks like Brad Pitt will be in two of the Best Picture nominees this time around.

The Help — The popularity of Tate Taylor’s film and the book on which it’s based make this a pretty strong contender as well, and the Academy often rewards inspirational tales you can cheer despite their historical setting and the ugliness it addresses. If it’s not harmed by controversy over the inspiration for the book’s character, it could be like The Blind Side and surprise observers who think the film is too “feel-good” to get nominated.

War Horse – Another one that instantly spells “Oscar,” and although Steven Spielberg has been away from the Awards a long time lately, he’s clearly making a strong return with this film that sounded like a “sure thing” when we first heard the logline. Of course, it’s not even out in theaters yet, but this one is an easy pick before it ever leaves the gate. The trailer is simply gorgeous to look at, and you instantly get the concept.

The Ides of March — An actor’s film directed by an actor, George Clooney, who knows how to direct other actors and let them control the storytelling. With an ensemble cast like this one, strong directing that favors performers, and the relevance of a national election focused on the compromises governance forces upon officials and the compromises they all too eagerly embrace, this film will have strong appeal to a big voting block at the Academy.

Contagion — The realism and importance in the story will appeal to Oscar, as will the star-studded ensemble cast and director Steven Soderbergh’s tendency to put the focus on his performers. The only thing that might hurt it is the lingering public anger over the government’s handling of the 2009 flu pandemic that some claim was an overreaction, despite real dangers and pandemic level outbreaks. But I think the odds of that are low.

J. EdgarClint Eastwood has been knocking it out of the park with film after film for a long time now, and this controversial biopic looks to be the film that could break his streak of snubs at the Oscars. It’s possible that the controversy over claims about Hoover’s sexuality might cause a distraction that affects the film’s chances, but on the other hand the controversy might actually help the film in the long run.

CarnageRoman Polanski’s dark comedy lets the actors stand front and center, in a rapid-fire roller coaster of emotion filled with humor and turnabout. Having failed to garner a nod with his last outing, this looks like it might be just the film to get him into the race again. It’s sure to get nominations for some actors as well, which could mean head-to-head match-ups, unless the Academy decides to designate some of them supporting stars.

The Girl With the Dragon TattooDavid Fincher is rapidly becoming a favorite of the Academy, but he’s been denied repeatedly. He’s making a strong play for it again this time around, with an international hit story and an adaptation that looks so good, the film’s trailer is almost Oscar worthy. (And having seen a special 8 minute preview clip of the film, I can attest to the fact that it looks like the film will more than live up to the intense buzz.)

Midnight in ParisWoody Allen’s latest film has received pretty widespread affection and acclaim, instantly making many “best of the year” lists. Odds-makers will tell you that Allen has a history of being a very strong contender, and they’re right. So when he’s got a film that connected with so many people, after a period of no nominations, I think that’s the recipe for success likely to get him a nod this time.

Okay, so there you have my top ten contenders for nominations for Best Picture.

But that’s hardly the full list of all of the contenders, and as the award nominations get closer, things might change as some films rise and others fall.

So, let’s take a look at some others that are definitely on the list of possible nominees.

First, here are the films I consider the five most likely replacements for any of the films on my top-ten contenders list…

The Artist — The main strike against this film is its foreign pedigree, since Oscar has an award for foreign language films and rarely nominates such films outside of their own category. But otherwise, it’s an artistic gem that takes risks and has a timeless, classic feel that could be the unlikely foreign film to defy tradition and cross over.

The Descendants — George Clooney’s other acclaimed film might be more likely to receive acting nods, since it’s unlikely he’ll get two Best Picture nominations. And I think that of the two films, the one with a larger ensemble cast and political themes is more likely to get that nod. But I definitely think one or the other is sure to get a nomination.

The Iron Lady — Period piece? Check. Powerful lead role by beloved performer? Check. On the other hand, this might be a film that doesn’t take the risks or perspective that Academy voters hope for, and so it’s hard to know what fate awaits it. But one thing’s for sure: Meryl Streep makes just about anything a contender, especially when she delivers a tour de force performance.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close — A September 11th storyline, lots of emotional outpouring, and a blaring U2 song, not to mention an pacifist vegan lead character. Sounds like a “sure thing?” Not necessarily, since the book had its detractors, and it might try too hard for emotional resonance. But the cast, director, and screenwriter are all top-notch and have a strong history with Oscar, so this is a tough call.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II — After a decade of films, the capstone entry to the phenomenally successful franchise was a huge critical and box office smash, and a nomination would be like nominating the entire franchise. This was also the best film of the series, and so a nomination honoring the series is also quite valid on the merits of the film’s own strengths as well. This would obviously go a long way toward the goal of including a big blockbuster in contention for a top honor, too, so there’s a lot potentially working in Harry’s favor here.

Next, let’s take a look at six dark horse candidates for Best Picture…

50/50 – This is a film that’s surprising everyone with how perfectly it balances comedy, drug jokes, and facing possible death from cancer. No performance here is less than excellent, and if I were an Academy voter it would definitely get a vote in every acting category. There is great care taken with small revelatory moments that are really significant insights into character, often redefining what you saw this person do for the previous hour or two. This film has so much going for it, it’s only a “dark horse” because I think there’s a chance that the prevalent marijuana use and drug jokes might not resonate as strongly with some of the Academy voters. Personally, this is one of the few films to truly touch me emotionally, having myself watched several friends die from illness, and because of my wife’s work with medical marijuana patients over the last many years (she is an attorney advocating for marijuana policy reform).

Take Shelter — Not the sort of film that usually gets nominated, this is a small indie film that looks like it had a much larger budget for what is either a sci-fi/fantasy film or a pure psychological drama, and you can’t be sure which it really is. And once again, Michael Shannon is the talk of the town for yet another knockout portrayal. Director Jeff Nichols’ 2007 film Shotgun Stories was one of that year’s very best films, but was sadly passed over at the Oscars, so I hope he isn’t overlooked this time around.

Bridesmaids — Outright comedies rarely get nominated for Best Picture, especially particularly raunchy ones. Well, if ever there was a raunchy comedy deserving of consideration for such a nod, this is it. Driven by strong performances and some of the best female characters of the year, this film was a runaway hit with crowds and critics, and if my Twitter feed was any indication it had a lot of admirers in Hollywood as well. I certainly hope it gets a lot of well-deserved recognition.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes — The ultimate dark horse candidate, because it probably seems so unlikely. But don’t be surprised if this one actually makes the final race, because this was no simply sci-fi action flick, this film had a strong story and a powerful lead character in Caesar, who although rendered in CGI was among the most fully realized protagonists in cinema this year. The film was a huge hit with critics and audiences, and the Academy loves to applaud a winner that took risks and merged great storytelling with great summer blockbuster fun.

The Whistleblower — Inspired by a true story that too few people know about (partly because it’s simply been ignored and kept hush-hush), this film revealing the cases of systemic child sex-slave trafficking and forced prostitution in Bosnia, in a situation that involved the United Nations and private military contracting firm DynCorp. The film fictionalizes many of the names (including the name of the company), but the story was the subject of a big court case and subsequent book about the events, and it’s the sort of major social issue and allegations of corruption and abuses of power that should normally get a lot of attention from Academy voters.

Young Adult — Sight unseen, this has the earmarks of a strong contender. Another team-up of director Jason Reitman and writer Diablo Cody, who captured everyone’s attention — and Oscar nominations including Best Picture — with their film Juno. Reitman’s films were nominated for the big prize twice in the previous three years, meaning he’s definitely been on a role. So a repairing with Cody in an adult, sharp-witted story about a sort of homecoming sounds like a top contender. Except that the film’s premise, about a woman trying to break up a man’s marriage to steal him away from his wife and children, might just be a tad bit more “edgy” than some Academy voters want in a protagonist. That much of it is played for laughs makes the hard edge more risky in terms of Oscar chances — although not for the film’s chances with audiences, since it looks hilarious and Charlize Theron appears to manage the task of seeming sympathetic and good-natured even while scheming to do some home-wrecking.

And that’s my list so far. Ten top contenders, five runners-up, and six dark horse candidates. There are a few I left out that might end up being contenders, such as We Bought A Zoo, but which I don’t known enough about or which I don’t feel are strong enough contenders to bump any of the films on these lists.

For now, I think these are the best options and I feel pretty certain that the vast majority of nominees will come from the films named here — and mostly from the top ten list, I bet.

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