加载中…
个人资料
水墨淡彩
水墨淡彩
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:1,845
  • 关注人气:4
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
相关博文
推荐博文
谁看过这篇博文
加载中…
正文 字体大小:

Issing sees eurozone recovery ahead

(2010-08-23 15:15:29)
标签:

财经

分类: 翻译

Issing sees eurozone recovery ahead
欧元区经济复苏在望

ECB executive committee member says rally will be driven by domestic demand, not the economic upturn in the United States
欧洲央行执行委员会委员指出,欧洲经济复苏得力于内需的刺激,而并非美国经济的好转。

Issing warns that wage convergence without a parallel hike in productivity is dangerous.
欧洲央行首席经济学家奥特玛.伊辛警告说不与生产力增长相对应的工资统一对欧元区经济发展是相当危险的.
By H.A. Papadimitriou - Kathimerini
H.A.•帕巴迪米特瑞欧•卡西梅瑞尼
Nobody can claim they know when the euro will rise above the US dollar, Professor Otmar Issing, a member of the executive committee at the European Central Bank, admits in an interview with Kathimerini.
没有人可以说他知道欧元什么时候会超过美元,欧洲央行执行委员会委员奥特马•伊辛教授在接受卡西梅瑞尼的采访中如是说道。
He says, however, that what counts for Europeans is what the euro can buy, and in recent months this has depended on inflation. Therefore, it is crucial to try to achieve the ECB's goal of inflation lower than 2 percent, an objective which is feasible, he says. Issing says this, along with a return to high growth rates, will ensure a moderate recovery in the eurozone in the first half of the year, with the pace picking up in the second half.
他说,欧洲人认为欧元的价值就是欧元能购买什么,而最近几个月,欧元的价值取决于通货膨胀率的高低。因此,伊辛指出,尽力去达到欧洲央行低于2%的通货膨胀目标(这个目标是切实可行的)是至关重要的。伊辛说,这一通货膨胀目标与高增长率所带来的回报一起,将确保欧元区在今年上半年的温和复苏,加快欧元区在今年下半年的复苏步伐。
In the last few months, European bankers have been more optimistic than ever. «The recovery will continue and the average growth rate this year will exceed last year,» said the head of research and projections at the ECB.
在过去的几个月当中,欧洲银行家开始变得从未有过的乐观。欧洲央行研究预测负责人说:“复苏将继续下去,今年的平均经济增长率将超过去年。”
Issing says a recovery, low inflation and higher productivity are the keys to better incomes and not an arbitrary increase in wages which «is a very dangerous development.»
伊辛说,经济复苏、通货膨胀率的降低及生产力的提高是收入增加和防止工资任意增长(工资的任意增长对发展是极其有害的)的关键。
What are your predictions for the eurozone? 
你认为欧元区的前景是怎样的?
We believe the economic slowdown reached its lowest point in the last quarter of 2001. We expect the eurozone economy to see a controlled recovery in the first half of this year and speed up in the second half. We also foresee declining inflation.
我们相信经济下滑已经在2001年最后一个季度达到了最低点。我们预计欧元区经济将在今年上半年出现一定程度的复苏,并在今年下半年加快复苏步伐。我们还预计通货膨胀率将下降。
What will be the sources of this recovery?
经济复苏的动力是什么?
I don't think there is only one source. First, we have confirmed that companies have exhausted their inventories and are now restocking, which will be good for growth. Secondly, domestic demand which stayed at low levels last year due to high inflation - it peaked at 3.4 percent last May - will recover as inflation falls. This will have a positive impact on disposable income. We also expect an increase in exports without depending exclusively on external factors.
我认为经济复苏不只一种动力。首先,我们已经证实公司已耗尽了它们的内存,现在正在补进存货,这对经济增长有益。第二,去年由于通货膨胀率上升而一直处于低水平的内需(去年5月,欧元区通货膨胀率飙升至3.4%)将随着通货膨胀率的下降恢复活力。这将给可支配收入带来积极影响。我们还预计出口将在不仅仅依赖客观因素的前提下上升。
You don't expect the European recovery to result from the improved US economy?
你不认为欧洲经济复苏是由于美国经济好转所致吗?
The two will occur at the same time as happened with the downturn. Nevertheless, the US economy is not the steam engine on which we depend. The European rally will be led by domestic demand.
与经济衰退一样,欧洲和美国的经济复苏将同时发生。不过,美国经济不是我们要依赖的引擎。欧洲经济将在内需的引导下复苏。
The ECB at one time said the problems of the US economy will not be transmitted across the Atlantic. Today, would you say that the repercussions of the tragic events of September 11 were the cause that led to the US problems being transferred over here, or is it logical and foreseen that they would cross the Atlantic?
欧洲央行曾经说过美国的经济难题将不会跨过太西洋传到欧洲。如今,你认为是9.11悲惨事件的影响导致了美国的经济困难跨过大西洋传到欧洲,还是这些困难会跨国大西洋传到欧洲本身就是情理之中、可以预见的呢?
First, the consequences of September 11 on the US economy were significant, but limited, in respect to its size and their duration. The US recession had begun long before that. The September 11 events only made things worse. Second, the simultaneous slowdowns in Europe and the USA were the outcome of common factors, such as the sharp hike in oil prices and overcapacity from IT and telecommunications producers. Our estimate is that the eurozone as a whole remained less exposed to the resulting shock than each member state on its own.
首先,9.11事件对美国经济造成的影响是重大的。但就其规模和持续时间而言,这种影响也是有限的。美国经济衰退早在9.11事件以前就开始了。9.11事件只是使得美国经济进一步恶化罢了。第二,欧洲和美国的同步衰退是欧美双方共同经济因素带来的结果,这些因素包括:石油价格的迅速上涨、信息技术和电信生产企业生产能力的过剩。我们估计,作为一个整体的欧元区因经济衰退所受的震动比作为个体的各个成员国所受的震动小。
So you admit that there is a connection between the eurozone and US economies and that exports could play a principal role?
那么,你承认欧元区经济和美国经济之间存在联系,并且出口在这当中发挥了主要作用了?
It was not the chief factor but it had a serious impact on the slowdown. It must be noted that the ratio of eurozone exports to gross domestic product amounts to 17 percent, much lower than the ratio for the individual countries before the creation of the eurozone.
出口不是主要因素,但它给经济下滑带来了严重影响。值得一提的是,欧元区出口与GDP的比率为17%,比欧元区成立以前,单个欧洲国家的这一比率低。
Do you reiterate your forecast that the eurozone economy will recover to a growth rate of 2 percent this year?
你在反复强调你的预测,认为今年欧元区经济增长率将恢复到2%吗?
What we expect is a mild recovery in the first half of the year and an acceleration in the second half. Thus, at year end, the annual growth rate should be consistent with the rate of growth in production potential. On average, the growth rate this year will be smaller but this should not lead to the wrongful conclusion regarding the strength of the recovery.
我们的预测是:欧元区经济将在今年上半年温和复苏,在今年下半年加快复苏。因此,到今年年底,年均经济增长率应该与生产潜力中的增长率一致。按平均计算,今年的增长率不大,但这不会使我们在经济复苏的强度问题上做出错误结论。
What are the dangers that could threaten recovery?
可能威胁经济复苏的一些危险是什么?
First, the eurozone is in very good shape. There are no serious imbalances. The current account is balanced, household and corporate debt do not create any concerns. Also financial markets are very stable and financing terms support a recovery. Real disposable income benefits from falling inflation. Fiscal restructuring is expected to continue. Subsequently, the basic macroeconomic factors favor a recovery without any inflationary pressures. Dangers would come principally from the international environment. As US authorities have noted, the US rally might not come without a hitch. There is still danger from developments in energy prices. We have seen an increase which is not worrying at present but a recovery could lead to a higher demand for oil. On top of this, the political uncertainties in the Middle East create serious concerns.
首先,欧元区还有待完善。欧元区并没有严重的经济失衡。经常帐户是平衡的,家庭和企业债务也不会带来多大影响。金融市场也十分稳定,并且,金融部门支持着经济复苏。真实可支配收入得益于下降的通货膨胀率。财政重组有望继续。其次,在没有任何通货膨胀压力的前提下,基本的宏观经济因素有利于经济复苏。危险主要来自国际环境。美国当局曾经指出,美国的经济复苏不会没有任何坎坷。能源价格的发展依然存在风险。我们虽然看到目前的能源价格上涨不足为虑,但经济复苏将导致对石油需求的增加。除了这些,中东政治不稳定也是一个值得严肃对待的事情。
Should we expect inflation to fall below 2 percent in the course of the year?
我们能指望通货膨胀率将在今年内降到2%以下吗?
Certainly, if nothing unexpected comes up and oil prices remain steady.
当然,但前提条件是没有什么意外出现,石油价格保持稳定。
Does the «compromise» in the European Union regarding the fiscal deficit in the end reflect a «German problem?»
欧盟在财政赤字问题上的最终“妥协”反映出了“德国的问题”吗?
I am satisfied with the agreement. Following the European Commission's initiative and pressure from partners, Germany will need to speed up its fiscal reforms this year and in coming years.
我对欧盟在财政赤字上的协议很满意。在欧洲委员会的倡导和欧盟伙伴国的压力下,德国将不得不在今年和未来的数年内加快其财政改革步伐。
How will the enlargement process affect the decision-making process in the ECB? Based on proposals at the Nice summit, we have discussed possible changes and have settled on an appropriate timeframe when these proposals will be discussed at the European council.
欧盟扩大化进程将如何影响欧洲央行的决策过程?以政府首脑会议的提议为基础,我们已经讨论了可能发生的变化,并制定了适当的时限在欧洲委员会会议上对这些提议进行讨论。
What is your opinion on the euro's current value? You must be aware of the concerns regarding the euro's declining value since its introduction. How do you explain the euro's fall against the US dollar and how long will this last?
你怎么看欧元目前的价值?你肯定知道这些关于欧元价值自欧元引入以来就在下降的担心。你如何解释欧元价值低于美元?这种情况会持续多久呢?
Indeed, Europeans are concerned, as they see the external value of the currency fall. It is not easy for many to see the difference between the domestic and the external values of the euro. For 330 million Europeans, the euro is a steady currency. It should be noted that studies have shown that the euro remains significantly undervalued. There is, of course, the question as to when this will change but the answer is that no one knows. Nobody can foresee short-term currency developments. We are of course convinced that the euro has the potential to appreciate.
事实上,在欧洲人了解到欧元的外部价值在下降之时,他们对此也很担心。对许多欧洲人来说,要了解欧元国内价值和外部价值的不同并不容易。对3.3亿欧洲人来说,欧元是一种稳定的货币。值得一提的是,一些研究已经指出欧元价值一直被大大地低估了。当然,关于什么时候这种情况才会改变这一问题,目前的答案只能是:没有人知道。没有人能预见该货币在短期内的发展趋势。当然,我们确信欧元有潜力增值。
In Greece, there is concern about the rise in inflation in recent months. Do you believe it is acceptable for a country like Greece, which expects a growth rate above 3 percent, to have inflation higher than the average eurozone level?
在希腊,人们担心通货膨胀率将在最近几个月内上升。你认为对希腊这类增长率预计低于3%的国家来说,通货膨胀率高于欧元区可以接受的吗?
As long as the Greek average inflation rate exceeds the average eurozone level, there is the danger that it will affect the country's competitiveness. This is a worrying development. This is an issue which must be dealt with economically as the ECB's monetary policy is drafted with the overall needs of the eurozone. Dealing with high inflation is closely linked to wage developments and fiscal policy.
只要希腊的平均通货膨胀率超过了欧元区的平均水平,影响希腊竞争力的危险就会存在。这是一个令人担心的发展趋势。在欧洲央行应欧元区的整体需要起草货币政策时,这个问题必须从经济的角度来处理。对高通货膨胀率的处理与工资发展和财政政策密切相关。
Do wage negotiations endanger a recovery?
工资谈判会危及经济复苏吗?
Wage negotiations could endanger price stability and simultaneously, employment and attempts to reduce the number of jobless. This constitutes the principal domestic uncertainty for the start and the strength of an economic recovery.
工资谈判会对价格稳定、就业及降低失业人数造成危害。这造成了主要国内不稳定
What do you consider a satisfactory level of wage increase that does not pose a danger to inflation?
你认为什么样的工资增长水平才令人满意,才不会对通货膨胀率构成威胁呢?
The guide to any wage increase must be an increase in productivity, which differs from country to country, region to region and sector to sector. Wage negotiations must take into account these special factors, especially within the framework of the monetary union.
引导工资增长的因素必须是生产力的增长,而生产力增长在国与国之间、地区与地区之间以及部门与部门之间都不尽相同。工资谈判必须考虑这些特定因素,尤其是在货币联盟内的工资谈判更应如此。
What do you think of the argument, especially popular in countries with low capita income, that an accelerated increase in wages will bring about convergence with other eurozone countries faster?
对工资争论,特别是在各低收入国家中流行的关于加速工资增长将使欧元区国家统一进程加快这一争论,你是怎么看的?
If the divergence, in nominal terms, is radically reduced, then unemployment could go up and this could be a dangerous development. We can learn from the German experience. There was a similar discussion before unification. The fact that the different wage levels in East and West Germany converged faster than productivity led to a hike in the number of jobless in East Germany. The view that for the same job, there should be the same pay is misleading. Especially in the framework of the monetary union, where we can't use the tool of currency exchange. If a country wants convergence in this way, it must bear the consequences.
如果名义上的分歧是因采取激进的方式而得到了减少,那么,失业率将会上涨,这将是一个危险的发展趋势。我们能从德国的经历中管窥一二。在德国统一以前,也曾有过与此相似的讨论。东德和西德不同的工资水平在统一上比生产力增长快这个事实导致了东德失业人数大增。同一工作应该支付相同报酬的观点是错误的,特别是在我们不能使用货币兑换工具的货币联盟中更是如此。如果一个国家想以这种方式实现统一,那么它必将承担因此而造成的苦果。

0

阅读 评论 收藏 转载 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  • 评论加载中,请稍候...
发评论

    发评论

    以上网友发言只代表其个人观点,不代表新浪网的观点或立场。

      

    新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 电话:4000520066 提示音后按1键(按当地市话标准计费) 欢迎批评指正

    新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 会员注册 | 产品答疑

    新浪公司 版权所有