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【分享】芒格的投资原则检查清单

(2010-11-27 21:17:07)
标签:

芒格

投资

检查清单

安全边际

分类: 投资百家杂钞

程欢注:一直以来,我就对智慧之学很感兴趣,希望探索“投资之道”,能够“修道,悟道,证道”,在实践中将投资的原则、投资的智慧转化为实实在在的业绩。这个过程不是现在5年的投资经历就能完成的,需要30年,50年以上的实践。也许,很多人会感到疑惑,人生需要这样吗?对于我来说,这是一个幸福的过程和经历,自然而然。

查理·芒格是巴菲特几十年的投资伙伴,他们俩经常在伯克希尔的股东大会上一唱一和谈笑风生。最近芒格先生的《穷查理宝典》这本书出版了。里面的文章非常精彩,喜欢他的投资者朋友们可以一睹为快。我截取里面的一篇非常实用的文章,投资原则检查清单,提醒自己在以后的几十年投资生涯里面经常反省思考检查。

芒格的投资原则检查清单》

题记:“聪明的飞行员不会忘了使用他的检查清单,无论他拥有何等突出的天赋或者丰富的经历。”


   芒格的清单中所列没有轻重缓急之分,在分析这些清单时,必须把每个因素看作是整个复杂投资分析过程中的一部分,就像是镶嵌在图案中的每个点一样。
1. 风险——所有的投资评估必须先从评估风险开始,尤其是声誉风险。
  1) 结合了合适的安全边际。
  2) 避免与个性有问题的人打教导。
  3) 坚持给假定的风险提供适当的补偿。
  4) 时刻牢记通胀和利率风险。
  5) 避免犯大错误,避免资本金持续亏损。
2. 独立——“只有在童话故事中,国王才会被告知自己其实是赤身裸体的”。
  1) 要做到客观和理智,就需要进行独立思考。
  2) 记住这一点,即你正确与否与别人是否认同你无关——唯一能决定你正确与否的是你的分析和判断是否正确。
  3) 模仿多数人的做法会招致向均数回归(仅仅获得平均业绩)。
3. 准备——“获胜的唯一途径就是工作工作再工作,并希望能获得一些洞察力”。
  1) 通过大量阅读,让自己成为一生的自学者;培育求知欲望,努力让自己一天比一天聪明。
  2) 比获胜愿望更为重要的是愿意进行准备工作。
  3) 熟练运用源自主要学科的思维模型。
  4) 如果你想变得聪明,需要一直问自己“为什么?为什么?为什么”。
4. 明智的谦逊——承认自己的无知能让人更有智慧。
  1) 呆在自己相对强势范围之内。
  2) 识别不确定的证据。
  3) 抵挡对得出错误的准确性、确定性等的渴望。
  4) 最重要的是永远不要欺骗自己,记住自己是最容易被欺骗的。
5.严格分析——使用科学的方法和有效的清单能将错误和遗漏降至最低。
  1) 确定价值、过程和财富。
  2) 最好是记住显而易见的东西,而不是那些深奥难懂的东西。
  3) 要成为商业分析师,而不是市场分析师、宏观经济分析师或证券分析师。
  4) 考虑所有的风险及其影响;总是关注潜在的二阶效应和更高程度的冲击。
  5) 进行前后思维——总是反过来看事务。
6. 配置——合理配置资本是投资者的首要任务。
  1) 记住是否有更好的使用方法(机会成本)是衡量是否已经最大程度和最好地使用了资本的标准。
  2) 金点子非常少——如果赔率对你非常有利,就下重注。
  3) 不要沉溺于投资——根据具体情况和机会进行投资。
7. 耐心——可知人类对行动的偏好。
  1) “复利是全世界第八大奇迹。“(爱因斯坦说)如果没有必要,永远也不要中断复利。
  2) 避免不必要的交易税和摩擦成本;永远不要根据自己对的兴趣采取行动。
  3) 应该对好运的到来保持警惕。
  4) 享受投资的过程,因为你就生活在这个过程中。
8. 果断——当适当情形出现时,果断且深信不疑地采取行动。
  1) 当别人贪婪时要害怕,当别人害怕时要贪婪。
  2) 机会不常有,机会出现时就要抓住他。
  3) 机会留给有准备的人:这就是游戏规则。
9. 改变——与改变共存并接受不可消除的复杂性
  1) 认识并适应你周围世界的真实本质,不要寄希望于世界会适应你。
  2) 不断挑战并愿意改进你“最喜欢的想法”。
  3) 认清现实,即使你不喜欢现实——尤其是当你不喜欢它的时候。
10. 专注——让事情保持简单,记住你要做些什么
  1) 记住名誉和正直是你最有价值的资产——而且会消失于眨眼之间。
  2) 避免狂妄自大和厌倦效应。
  3) 不能因专注于细枝末节而忽视了显而易见的东西。
  4) 小心排除不需要的信息:“小小的渗漏也能让一艘大船沉没。”
  5) 直面你的大麻烦,不要将它们藏起来。

 

Charlie Munger's Investing Principles Checklist

http://blog.sina.com.cn/beidoufund


Joe Koster's summary of Charlie Munger's Investing Principles Checklist, according to Poor Charlie's Almanack. Charlie’s most basic guiding principles, his fundamental philosophy of life: Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

Risk - All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational

—Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety
—Avoid dealing with people of questionable character
—Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed
—Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures
—Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss

Independence - "Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked"

—Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought
—Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrong - the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment
—Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance)

Preparation - "The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights"

—Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day
—More important than the will to win is the will to prepare
—Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines
—If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is "why, why, why?"

Intellectual humility - Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom

—Stay within a well-defined circle of competence
—Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence
—Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
—Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool

"Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things."


Analytic rigor - Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions

—Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from size
—It is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric
—Be a business analyst, not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst
—Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts
—Think forwards and backwards - Invert, always invert

Allocation - Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job

—Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost)
—Good ideas are rare - when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily
—Don’t "fall in love" with an investment - be situation-dependent and opportunity-driven

Patience - Resist the natural human bias to act

—"Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world" (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily
—Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake
—Be alert for the arrival of luck
—Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live

Decisiveness - When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction

—Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
—Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it comes
—Opportunity meeting the prepared mind; that’s the game

Change - Live with change and accept unremovable complexity

—Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you
—Continually challenge and willingly amend your "best-loved ideas"
—Recognize reality even when you don’t like it - especially when you don’t like it

Focus - Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do

—Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets - and can be lost in a heartbeat
—Guard against the effects of hubris (arrogance) and boredom
—Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae (the small details)
—Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop: "A small leak can sink a great ship"
—Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug

In the end, it comes down to Charlie’s most basic guiding principles, his fundamental philosophy of life: Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

http://blog.sina.com.cn/beidoufund


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