加载中…
个人资料
MarkHulbert专栏
MarkHulbert专栏
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:68,019
  • 关注人气:43
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
相关博文
推荐博文
谁看过这篇博文
加载中…
正文 字体大小:

[Mark Hulbert]十年期国债收益率之辩(2010年06月02日

(2010-06-02 22:18:00)
标签:

财经

分类: Mark

 

2010年06月02日 22:07  新浪财经

  【MarketWatch弗吉尼亚6月2日讯】和债市作对,可是件非常危险的事情。

  对此我当然非常清楚,因为六个月之前,我曾经撰写过一篇预测十年期国债收益率的文章。具体说来,十年期国债的收益率当时是3.55%。

  众所周知,半年过后,十年期国债收益率不但没有上涨,反而下跌了,现在还不足3.3%。

  那么,十年期国债收益率的下跌是否应该归功于一些去年十二月时我们根本无法预判的事情,比如欧洲巨大的金融危机?我觉得不能这么说,因为去年十二月的时候,希腊的消息已经登上大小媒体的头条了,因此有人说那时无法预知现在,显然是站不住脚的。

  相反,早在那时,就已经有一些人预言了十年期国债收益率在未来六个月内将下跌的前景。其中的一位专家是如此肯定,因此他强烈要求和我打赌,赌今年六月初的时候,十年期国债收益率肯定是要低于当时的3.55%。

  我欣然接受,并且许诺,如果他是正确的,我将在自己的专栏文章当中承认这一点。他的名字叫做史密斯(Rondy Smith),今年早些时候刚刚退休,之前在AG爱德华兹、美联和富国做了二十五年的投资经纪人。

  那么,史密斯这一次的成功是否会让他觉得自己宝刀未老而再为冯妇,比如说,发行一份投资通讯呢?

  他的回答是否定的。他说,他没有兴趣再去为任何人提供投资建议了。

  不过与此同时,他倒也明确表示,“利率在相当时间内恐怕还将继续保持抑制状态,”因为全球经济在相当时间之内都将陷入分裂,很难解决自己的问题。根据史密斯的理论,只有到一切问题都基本解决的时候,国债收益率才会回到正常的水平。

  不必说,到了那一天,国债收益率自然会走高,但是史密斯强调,即便对那时的涨幅也最好不要有太高的预期。根据他的估计,十年期国债收益率最高也就涨到4.25%而已。

  事实上,我六个月前的那篇文章很大程度上是受到了塞佛(Dan Seiver)的研究启发,后者是圣迭戈州立大学的访问金融学教授,发行着一份叫做PAD System Report的投资通讯。本周早些时候,我专门联络了塞佛,以了解在过去六个月当中,他对于十年期和三十年期国债收益率的判断是否发生了变化。

  回答也是否定的。

  不过,具有讽刺意味的是,他对于史密斯关于十年期国债短期前景的看法事实上是接受的。他承认,如果欧洲的局面“持续恶化”,收益率将在低位徘徊更长的时间。如果伊朗获得了原子弹,或者朝鲜半岛爆发了战争——两种可能性显然都值得我们认真对待——这时间还将来得更长。

  不过,就长期角度说来,塞佛认为利率走高的幅度显然不止史密斯预测的那么一点。塞佛对未来十年的通货膨胀进行了预测,他认为,投资者根据这一预期所要求的风险溢价将会水涨船高。

  我们看到,尽管他们六个月前的看法有明显的差别,但是这两位专家眼下对利率的预测却差别不是很大。他们都认为在近期之内,国债收益率很可能会持续保持低水平,这主要是由于希腊危机对全球经济的影响,以及伊朗和朝鲜等地潜在的危机。

  与此同时,对长期前景的预测,两人都认为收益率会走高,差别的只是程度而已。

  (本文作者:Mark Hulbert)

 

12:01 a.m. Today12:01 a.m. June 2, 2010 - By Mark Hulbert
 

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It's dangerous to bet against the bond market.

I should know, because I wrote a column six months ago predicting higher yields on the 10-year Treasury. The yield at the time stood at 3.55%. ( Read my Dec. 15, 2009, column.)

/quotes/comstock/20m!i:tnx TNX 32.87, -0.09, -0.27%

Far from being higher today than then, of course, the CBOE's 10-Year Treasury Yield Index /quotes/comstock/20m!i:tnx (TNX 32.87, -0.09, -0.27%) is now much lower -- 3.3%, in fact.

Could this failure be excused on the grounds that the fiscal mess in Europe was an extraordinary event that couldn't have been knowable last December? I'm afraid not. Greece's insolvency was already front page news in December, so one can hardly argue that it was then unpredictable.

On the contrary, furthermore, there were some in December who were in fact predicting that the 10-year Treasury yield would fall over the subsequent six months. One of them was so sure I was wrong that he bet me that rates on June 1 would be lower than the 3.55% that prevailed when I wrote that column.

I agreed that, if he was right, I would in this column acknowledge his correct forecast. His name is Rondy Smith, and he retired earlier this year after 25 years as an investment broker for A.G. Edwards, Wachovia Securities, and Wells Fargo Advisors.

Is Smith going to let his success go to his head and prompt him to return to the investment advisory business? Start an investment newsletter, perhaps?

He assures me that it won't. He says he's not interested in directing investment recommendations to anybody.

However, he did say that "rates are likely to remain suppressed for some time yet," arguing that it could take quite a while for economic disruptions around the world to resolve themselves. Only then would Treasury yields revert to more normal levels, on Smith's theory.

To be sure, when that does finally happen, rates would go higher. But only moderately so, in Smith's opinion. He offered the tentative prediction that the ten-year yield might rise as high as 4.25%.

I based my six-months-ago column predicting higher interest rates on analysis provided by Dan Seiver, a visiting finance professor at San Diego State University and editor of an investment advisory service called the PAD System Report. I checked in with him earlier this week to see if the last six months have changed his mind in any way on his expected outlook for the 10- or 30-year Treasury yield.

They haven't.

Ironically, however, he doesn't particularly disagree with Smith over the shorter-term prospects for the 10-year yield. He allowed that, if the European fiscal crisis "keeps festering," Treasury yields could stay low for a while longer. This period of low rates would last even longer if Iran acquires a nuclear bomb or war breaks out in the Korean peninsula -- both of which are all too possible.

Longer term, however, Seiver thinks rates are headed much higher. He bases this on his expectation of inflation over the next decade and what risk premium bond investors will require above and beyond that.

The bottom line? Despite being on the opposite sides of an interest-rate bet six months ago, these two analysts are not as far apart in their interest rate forecasts as might otherwise appear. Both agree that over the near term -- lasting however long the world economy is disrupted by events in Greece and possibly Iran, Korea and elsewhere --Treasury yields could easily remain as low as they are today.

Over the longer term, furthermore, both see yields headed higher -- either moderately, in Smith's opinion, or even higher still, in Seiver's.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

0

阅读 评论 收藏 转载 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  • 评论加载中,请稍候...
发评论

    发评论

    以上网友发言只代表其个人观点,不代表新浪网的观点或立场。

      

    新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 电话:4000520066 提示音后按1键(按当地市话标准计费) 欢迎批评指正

    新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 会员注册 | 产品答疑

    新浪公司 版权所有