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[Mark Hulbert]情绪面巨变说明短期看涨2010年05月17日

(2010-05-17 22:04:14)
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财经

分类: Mark

 

 2010年05月17日 21:36  新浪财经

  【MarketWatch弗吉尼亚5月17日讯】现在,虽然已经过去了一周多的时间,但是投资者对于市场5月6日的闪电崩盘依然是记忆犹新——当天,道琼斯工业平均指数盘中一度跌至9870点的水平,较之5月5日的收盘点位,跌幅几乎达到了四位数。

  当然,一周多时间之后,市场距离5月6日的盘中或者收盘低点都已经有了相当的距离,但是这并不意味着一切都已经在向着乐观的方向改变,事实上,今日的投资顾问情绪较之当日市场跳水之后,甚至是变得更加悲观了。

  这的确是一个值得注意的现象。归根结底,在股市那一天大幅下跌之后,投资顾问的看涨情绪已经遭受了重大打击,悲观气氛极为浓重,从逆势分析的角度看去,当时便可得出结论:市场在之前一段时间中过于乐观的情况已经逆转,股市近期的发展趋势已经是看涨的可能性大过看跌。

  具体说来,我们不妨来看一看《赫伯特金融摘要》所追踪的短期股票随势操作投资通讯平均推荐的投资充分程度,即所谓赫伯特股票投资通讯情绪指数(HSNSI)的表现。当前,这一指数的读数是20.5%。

  不必说,道指现在的点位较之一周之前已经高出了几百点,但是与此同时,情绪指数却下滑了6个百分点以上。

  按照正常的逻辑,当股市上涨时,投资顾问的情绪是会变得愈来愈乐观的,考虑到这一点,我们便会明白当前所见乃是一种令人吃惊的事情。这其实是意味着,在投资顾问们的心中,对于市场上涨的能力是存在着一股强大的怀疑主义潜流的。

  或者,换一种更加常见的说法,当前的市场上已经矗立起一堵忧虑之墙,等待着未来的牛市去持续翻越。

  若是将追踪的目标进一步缩小到纳斯达克市场,看一看所谓赫伯特纳斯达克投资通讯情绪指数(HNNSI),则我们的印象还将更加深刻。这一指数当前的读数为3.2%,而5月6日收盘时为21.1%。

  事实上,四月下旬,HNNSI就已经达到了近十年以来的最高水平,读数80%。若是以那时为起点进行计算,则指数的跌幅到现在已经接近80个百分点。这就意味着,这些随势操作者们简直是不顾一切,夺路而逃,这自然也就使得忧虑之墙得到了进一步的强化。

  正是因为前述的这些缘故,逆势分析家在四月下旬时对市场前景感到悲观,而短短两周之后,现在已经是明确的看涨结论。

  短短两周之内,市场的情绪就从极度乐观转向哪怕不能说是明确的悲观,至少也是深度怀疑的水平,这是个令人惊奇的变化。在正常情况下,情绪如此程度的转变,怎么也需要至少一两个月的时间,而不是我们现在看到的两周。

  这或许是意味着,尽管我们已经明确认识到逆势分析作为一种短期随势操作工具的意义,但是它所针对的行情,很可能要比我们预想得更加短期。历史统计数据显示,HSNSI对未来行情预测最为准确的时间段是三个月,现在看来,或许它最有效的期间已经变得更短了。

  在这种情况下,逆势分析得出了看涨的结论,但是有必要提醒各位的是,这看涨的结论很可能只适用于未来几周的时间。

  不过哪怕是只有一两周,对于投资者已经是难得的安慰了,毕竟最近一段时间以来的剧烈波动已经让他们身心俱疲。

  (本文作者:Mark Hulbert)

Sentiment picture improves further

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It's now been one week since May 6's "flash crash," during which the Dow dropped to an intraday low of 9,870 -- nearly a thousand points below where it closed on the previous day, May 5.

/quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed DJIA 10,595, -25.47, -0.24%

And, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 10,595, -25.47, -0.24%) is now more than 900 points above that intraday low, and nearly 300 points above its May 6 close, advisers are even more bearish now than they were in the wake of that day's rapid dive.

That's saying something, since there was already a huge drop in advisory bullishness on that day -- so big of a drop, in fact, that contrarians shifted from their previous bearishness and concluded that the stock market's likely near-term trend was up. ( Read my May 7 column.)

Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). This sentiment index currently stands at 20.5%.

That's more than six percentage points below where it stood a week ago, despite the Dow being several hundred points higher.

Since the usual pattern is for advisers to become more bullish as the stock market rises, this is a surprising development. It suggests that there is a strong undercurrent of skepticism among investment advisers about the market's ability to rise.

And that's another way of saying that there is a strong wall of worry that the bull market can continue to climb.

This overall pattern is even more pronounced among the market timers I track that focus on the Nasdaq market (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). Their average exposure currently is 3.2%, in contrast to 21.1% after the close on May 6.

In fact, since late April, when the HNNSI had reached its highest level in nearly 10 years, at 80%, the HNNSI has dropped nearly 80 percentage points. That reflects an incredible rush for the exits among these market timers -- further strengthening the wall of worry.

This helps to explain why contrarians were bearish in late April and are bullish now, just two weeks later.

This rapid swing from excessive bullishness to profound skepticism, if not outright bearishness, is amazing. The more typical pattern is for such huge shifts in sentiment to take at least a month or two -- not just two weeks, as it has recently.

This in turn suggests that contrarian analysis may need to be seen as an even shorter-term market timing tool than it was already. My statistical tests up until recently had found that the HSNSI had its greatest ability to forecast market moves at the three-month time horizon. Its greatest forecasting power today is probably much shorter than that.

So the bullish conclusion that contrarian analysis reaches currently should be seen as applying primarily to only the next several weeks.

But, hopefully, after a week of extraordinary volatility, beleaguered investors can find at least some solace in that.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

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