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爱丽丝•施罗德:巴菲特的模式识别能力

(2012-07-18 21:51:50)
标签:

模式识别

施罗德

巴菲特

能力

股票

分类: 投资方法论

http://www.simoleonsense.com/simoleonsense-interviews-buffett’s-biographer-alice-schroeder-part-5-buffett-the-investor-businessman/


Miguel: How else does he process macroeconomic information? How does this relate to his fascination with history? 

记者:巴如何处理宏观经济信息?这跟他对历史的着迷有何关联?

 

Alice: History was one of Warren’s best subjects even when he was very young (in school). He has a liking for it. But at the same time pattern recognition is one of his primary skills and perhaps his greatest skill. So in terms of data points, unlike many people who learn by seeking information on an as-needed basis, Warren is always looking for fuel for pattern recognition before he needs it.

爱丽丝:即使在他很年轻的时候(学校),历史已是巴菲特的最好科目之一。他喜欢历史。同时,模式识别能力是他主要的技巧之一,甚至可能是他最棒的技巧。因此,在数据方面,他不象很多人是根据需求为基础去寻找信息的方式来认知的,巴菲特总是在需要数据信息前先找出认知模式。

 

He’s always looking for context. Having an interest in a broad sweep of history provides vast context for making many decisions because it enables analogies. And that I think it has been very helpful for him in avoiding fallacies such as “This time it’s different.”

爱丽丝:他总是先寻找出事情的脉络。而对历史的广泛兴趣为他作很多决策时提供了脉络,因为这可以让他进行类比。而我觉得这对他避免诸如“这次不同”之类的失误非常有帮助。

 

It allows him to make analogies between industries, for example between the internet/dotcom stocks and early auto stocks, as in the speech he gave at Sun Valley that is described in The Snowball.

爱丽丝:这能让他在不同行业间进行类推,例如,《滚雪球》中记载的他在太阳谷的演讲提到的互联网股票和早年的汽车股之间的类推。

 

Miguel: Tell me more about his pattern recognition skills? How is this one of his greatest skills? 

记者:可讲详细一些?为何是他最棒的能力之一?

  

Alice: Take this example. If you look at the dotcom stocks, the meta-message of that era was world-changing innovation. He went back and looked for more patterns of history when there was a similar meta-message, great bursts of technological innovation in canals, airplanes, steamboats, automobiles, television, and radio. Then he looked for sub-patterns and asked what the outcome was in terms of financial results. 

爱丽丝:例如,如果你看看那些互联网股,在那个年代的大预言就是那将是改变世界的大创新。他回溯并在历史模式中寻找类似的大预言,曾发生于运河,飞机,蒸汽船,汽车,电视,收音机的大量科技创新,然后他寻找副模式并追问这在经济意义上的实质结果又是如何?

 

With the dotcoms, people were looking to see what was different and unique about them. Warren is always thinking what’s the same between this specific situation and every other situation.

爱丽丝:对互联网股,人们去看它们有何独特不同,而巴菲特总是思考它(这个特定的情形)与另外一些情形到底有何相同。

 

That is the nature of pattern recognition, asking “What can I infer about this situation based on similarities to what I already know and trust that I understand?” There is less emphasis on trying to reason out things on the basis that they are special because they are unique, which in a financial context is perhaps the definition of a speculation. ( Warren is not averse to speculation, by the way, as long as it’s what he calls “intelligent speculation,” meaning he’s got long odds in his favor.) But pattern recognition is his default way of thinking. It creates an impulse always to connect new knowledge to old and to primarily be interested in new knowledge that genuinely builds on the old.

爱丽丝:这就是模式识别的本质。问自己“基于我已了解并相信的类似情形(例子),我可以对此作出什么推断?” 基于“它们很独特很特别”来作出推断并不那么重要,这点,在财务上讲,也许这就是投机的定义。(只要是他说的那种概率对他极有为利的“聪明的投机”,巴菲特并不反对投机)。但模式识别是他自动的思考方式,它推动着他把新知识总是与原有知识联系起来,或主要对那些在原有知识上产生的新知识产生兴趣。

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