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Recession May Be Over but not Job Losses

(2009-10-29 12:32:31)
标签:

recession

jobless

pain

分类: 经济

经济衰退也许结束 但失业还没

By AP / TOM RAUM Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2009

Jun Wen译

 

(WASHINGTON) — It's about to become official: The recession is over — but not the pain.

(华盛顿)—这将成为正式:经济衰退结束了,但痛苦还没。

 

The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10%.

政府将在本周公布数据,预计将显示经济已经从自1930年以来最低迷状态中清醒并处于复苏的初级阶段。但在接下来一周,政府会发布另一系列数据显示失业率持续上升并可能超过衰退期时的10%.

 

How can both be possible?

怎么可能两种情况同时出现?

 

The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3%, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.

政府星期四公布了第三季度的GDP数字。许多预测者说他们会显示GDP会以3%的年增长率增长,验证了经济衰退在6月或7月结束这个广泛存在于经济学家们中的信念。

 

But try telling that to the more than 15 million still unemployed, the small businesses and individuals who can't get loans and the people whose homes are worth less than their mortgages.

但试着告诉那超过1500万仍然失业的人,无法取得贷款的小企业和个人以及那些房屋价值低于其抵押贷款的人。

 

Assertions by government and private economists that the recession is over — issued amid graphic examples of continuing wide distress — are raising fresh questions about economic scorekeeping.

政府和经济学家在不幸持续扩张的鲜明例子中断言经济衰退已经结束,这对经济评估机制提出了新的问题。

 

The national recession may be technically over, but the state of the economy remains in the eyes of the beholder.

国家经济衰退可能严密地来说结束了,但经济状况还是见仁见智的。

 

Or, as Ronald Reagan liked to say, a recession is when your neighbor loses his or her job. Depression is when you lose yours.

 

A survey of economic forecasters prepared by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, predicted GDP growth to remain positive in each quarter through the end of 2010. In a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, 34 of 43 economists polled said the recession is over.

或者像罗纳德里根说的,经济衰退是你的邻居失业。经济萧条是你失业。

 

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

“从技术角度来说,衰退很可能结束了”,美国联邦储备主席本伯南克说。

 

"A recession that showed no signs of ending last January appears to be firmly entering the recovery phase," said Christina Romer, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

“今年1月衰退没有结束的迹象,如今似乎稳定地进入了复苏阶段,”白宫经济顾问委员会主席克里斯蒂娜罗默说。

 

But nobody is sugar coating the statistics, especially in the administration, which agrees with private surveys suggesting that unemployment will hover near 10% through most of next year.

但没有人在    数据,特别在管理部门,它们同意那些表明明年大部分时间失业率会徘徊在10%的死人调查。

 

"Even when you've turned the corner, you have so much work to do," Romer told Congress' Joint Economics Committee.

“即使当你渡过了难关,你还有很多事要做,”罗默对国会经济联合委员会说。

 

And while she credited much of the turnabout to government stimulus measures and moves by the Fed, she said "by mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will be contributing little to further growth."

当她把经济好转大部分归功于政府的刺激手段和美联储的行动,她说:“到2010年中,

财政刺激对进一步的增长没有什么贡献。”

 

The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, 3.4 million of them since President Barack Obama took office in January.

自从2007年12月经济衰退开始,经济已经失去了720万个职位。其中340万是从总统奥巴马1月份上任开始的。

 

James K. Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, suggests too much attention is given to when recessions technically begin and not enough to other measures of the economy.

奥斯汀的得克萨斯大学的经济学家詹姆斯·K·加尔布雷斯提出,过多的关注给与了经济衰退的开始而没有足够的在其他经济措施上。

 

"It's just a word. A recession technically lasts during negative quarters. But that doesn't mean you're back to prosperity once you have positive growth. You're back to prosperity when the unemployment rate is back around 4 percent," Galbraith said. And that, he said, could take years.

“仅仅是一句话。严密地来说衰退会在消极的季度持续。但这并不意味着一旦正增长我们就回到了繁荣时期。当失业率回到4%左右你就回到了繁荣,”加尔布雷斯说,但那可能需要几年时间。

 

A recession is popularly defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, or declining output.

经济衰退普遍定义为持续两个季度或以上的经济负增长,或产出下降。

 

But a more refined determination is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It not only looks at GDP but at employment levels, real personal income, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales.

但负责标注经济衰退的起止点的一个顶尖经济学家的民间团体——全国经济研究局做出了更完善的定义。它不仅着眼于国内生产总值而且着眼于就业水平、实际个人收入、工业生产以及批发和零售业。

 

It put the start date at December 2007 and has not yet called an end.

2007年12月作为衰退的开始日期,如今还没结束。

 

There have been 11 recessions since World War II. In the two most recent ones, job growth lagged long after the recessions were deemed over. In the most recent two — July 1990-March 1991 and March-November 2001 — the unemployment rate did not fall to prerecession levels for several years.

自从第二次世界大战以来有11个衰退期。在最近的两个中,就业增长在衰退期被认为结束了之后长期滞后。在最近两个——1990年7月到1991年3月和2001年3月到11月,就业率并没有下降到前几年衰退期的水平。

 

After the eight-month 2001 recession, the unemployment rate went from a prerecession 4% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2001. Then it kept climbing even higher — to 5.8% in 2002 to 6% in 2003. It didn't return to under 5% until 2006, when it fell to 4.6%.

在2001年8个月的衰退期之后,失业率从2000年衰退期的4%走到2001年的4.8%.之后甚至攀升得更高,2002年到5.8%,2003年到6%.直到2006年才回落到5%以下,下降到4.6%.

 

While there are clear signs of recovery, it is uneven.

虽然有明显的复苏迹象,但是不稳定的。

 

Stocks have surged about 50% since their March lows. And a year after Washington rescued the financial industry, some large banks and Wall Street firms have roared back to profitability.

股票从3月的最低点上涨了近50%.华盛顿拯救金融业一年后,一些大银行和华尔街公司已经恢复了盈利。

 

But smaller banks and other businesses are struggling, and many have failed or are failing.

但规模较小的银行和其他企业仍在努力挣扎,许多已经失败了或正在失败。

 

That disconnect sparked anger among the public and led to sweeping government action last week to limit executive compensation at financial firms that accepted federal bailout money.

这种脱节引起大众的愤怒并且导致了上星期的清扫政府行为,以限制接受联邦援助资金的金融公司的高管薪酬。

 

"While credit may be more available for large businesses, too many small business owners are still struggling to get the credit they need," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address. "These are the very taxpayers who stood by America's banks in a crisis — and now it's time for our banks to stand by creditworthy small businesses, and make the loans they need to open their doors, grow their operations and create new jobs."

“当大企业更容易得到信贷的时候,许多小企业主仍在努力得到他们需要的信贷,”奥巴马在他的每周电台和网络演说中说到。“这些是在危机中站在美国银行一边的纳税人,如今是时候我们的银行去支持有信誉的小企业,让他们需要的贷款打开他们的大门、发展他们的业务和创造新的就业机会。”

 

There have been modest improvements in manufacturing and other parts of the nonfinancial business sector, yet lingering signs of weakness in commercial real estate and retail spending.

目前在制造业和非金融企业部门的其它部分有了适度的改善,然而在商业房地产和零售消费仍有挥之不去的疲软迹象。

 

Economists suggest some of the expected increase in economic growth is a bounce off the bottom. They attribute it to government stimulus spending, including the now-expired Cash for Clunkers program; accommodative Fed monetary policies and widespread cost-cutting by companies.

经济学家们认为经济增长的一些预期增加是谷底反弹。他们把它归功于政府刺激消费,包括现在已经到期的现金换旧车计划,美联储宽松的货币政策以及大量公司削减成本。

 

Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires. And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.

许多公司让库存缩减很多使得当库存用光时订单数量回升。房屋的再次销售增加,由于买家争相在首次业主税收抵免到期前完成购买。同时美国出口商受益于美元无情下跌造成的美国商品在海外更便宜更具竞争力。

 

But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.

但这些都不意味着持续上升。

 

"Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery," said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.

“没有强劲的就业增长势头,就不算是真正的经济复苏,”白宫经济顾问贾里德伯恩斯坦说。

 

 

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