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香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

(2019-07-20 00:25:19)

按语:这是在国外类似“知乎”的网站“quora”上看到的一篇外国人写的对于香港局势和前景的最犀利的回答,问题看得透彻,语言表达简练,而且有数据有资料。真是旁观者清!很值得一读,特别值得某些香港人自己一读。不要再沉迷在虚幻的优越感中了,不要再做白日梦了。香港的过去既不值得骄傲,香港的未来也不可妙。香港的唯一美好前景,就是尽快深度融入大中国的经济社会发展步伐,不要掉队!

How do you think the current unrest in Hong Kong will turn out in the longer term?

链接:

https://www.quora.com/How-do-you-think-the-current-unrest-in-Hong-Kong-will-turn-out-in-the-longer-term 

作者:Robin Daverman, World traveler 

Hong Kong’s next twenty years is maybe 5% influenced by the current unrest, 15% influenced by the US-China trade tension and UK BREXIT, and 80% determined by Hong Kong itself. 

The 5% that’ll be influenced by the current Hong Kong unrest:

55% of Hong Kong’s trade and 80% of its tourists are from mainland China. These will be affected to certain extent. Hong Kong had a larger incident of demonstrations and social unrest in 2014. 2014 Hong Kong protests Larger size, longer duration, and the demonstration leaders were elected subsequently into the LegCo (who then proceeded to refuse the swearing ceremony and used some vulgar language, and as a result were thrown out of the organization). As a result, Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed down a bit, but by 2017 it was back on track. Then it was hit by the trade war with the Anglo countries, which is a bigger deal than the local unrest.

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

However, the long-term impact is that China is in the process of building 19 super city clusters. These city clusters will end up covering 90% of China’s economic activity. China is building 19 'supercity clusters' Each with a complete package of top universities, industrial base, cutting-edge technology, and free trade zone. 3 out of these 19 were going to lead the pack - the Xiong’an (Beijing-Tianjin-Shijiazhuang cluster) area, the Shanghai-Suzhou-Hangzhou-Nanjing cluster, and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou cluster. These three clusters are the darker circles in the map below.

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

Source: Mammoth urban clusters are sprouting up all over China

The Beijing government is very capable. Beijing got the Daxing airport, which is the world’s biggest, built in 3 years, got the Winter Olympic hosting, and got a whole new eco-design of the whole area in place.

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

The Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou governments are also very capable, and they are very good at collaborating with each other. They worked together to build an “integration plan” for 2018 - 2020 right off the bat, and their policy development and coordination is like a hundred times better than the EU bloc.

The Yangtze River Delta Integration Plan - China Briefing News

To help achieve this, in June 2018 authorities from Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Anhui agreed a three-year action plan (2018-2020), which will provide a strategic roadmap and includes nearly a dozen collaborative projects to increase the region’s competitiveness on a global scale. 

In tandem with this, a RMB 100 billion (US$16 billion) fund, The Yangtze River Delta Collaborative Advantage Fund, was launched in Shanghai. RMB 10 billion (US$1.6 billion) of this fund will be made available in the first phase and will be available for “hard technology” projects that will help to integrate the region’s industries. 

The Shenzhen-Guangdong-Zhuhai governments are quite capable themselves, but anything involving Hong Kong can quickly turn into an expensive, political, headache. It should be expected that the Pearl River Delta cluster plan will go ahead with less Hong Kong participation, because the Hong Kong people are not really on-board with the plan. 

The 15% that will be influenced by the US-China trade tension and UK BREXIT:

This is actually a much bigger deal than the current unrest. 20 years ago Hong Kong might have been China’s only portal to the world. Now this is far from the case. A country with 20% of the global population can not have only one portal to the rest of the world. Right now, there are a dozen of these “portals”, or Free Trade Zones.

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

China Free Trade Zones (FTZ): The Definitive Guide for Exporters

Shanghai Free-Trade Zone - Wikipedia

These “portals” have differentiated to different countries. The South Koreans went to Beijing, where they they have their own neighborhood, food, culture, and schools. The Japanese, the Germans, and the French went to Shanghai. Arab traders in Yiwu, Zhejiang province. The Portuguese and the Brazilians went to Macao. There are 300,000 African traders and students living in Guangzhou… and right now, the biggest uncertainly involves the US-China trade tension and the BREXIT, both will primarily impact Hong Kong and Hong Kong only.

These uncertainties are not short-time event, but are being “mainstreamed”. You can say they are wrong, but people have to be “mobbed by reality” before they will turn back and try something else. The “psychological time” for this can easily last for a decade. 

Hong Kong’s future is 80% determined by itself, 

and this should give one the most concern. The so-called “Pearl of the Orient” is a fake marketing term The reality is more like “the Leech of the Orient”. Hong Kong was busiest office of Panama Papers law firm 

Hong Kong has a population of 7 million and GDP per capita of ~ $50,000. So a rich big city. Well, 

Denmark has 5 million people, one of the most productive agriculture industry in Europe, Maersk the biggest international shipping company, Novo Nordisk one of the top pharmaceutical companies in the world… 

Sweden has 10 million people, Volvo the car company, Ericsson the telecom company, H&M the clothing retailer, Electrolux the home appliance company, IKEA the furniture company… 

What about Hong Kong? Hong Kong doesn’t have a single world-class company. Not a single one, despite of its fantastic wealth. Handed over to the British since 1842, so almost 180 years where the local tycoons get to play in the sandbox. What has Hong Kong done with all its money? Which Hong Kong company has made it big worldwide? OK, so you can argue that Hong Kong is too crowded. Well Tokyo is also terribly crowded - so they became the world’s leader at Miniaturization. Small, high-quality, efficient. Thats what led to Sony and Toyota. Why couldn’t Hong Kong do this? 

Hong Kong does not have the “economic DNA” for those things. You need to learn how Hong Kong really made its money. Hong Kong started it’s “industrialization” as an Opium Den. Jardine Matheson was the opium-runner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hi..., and HSBC was the bank that financed the opium trade. Almost all Hong Kong tycoons are in real estate, where you take a monopoly on the land, and extract exorbitant rent from people for no work. Hong Kong’s Richest People Movie-making in the Great Britain involves 50-year-old Dames with serious acting skills. Movie-making in Hong Kong is mostly money-laundering for the tycoons, and publicity for the tycoons’ 20-year-old mistresses and/or their third wives. 

In 1997 Hong Kong was handed over to PRC. To boost Hong Kong economy and promote integration, China signed a CEPA (Closer Economic Partnership Agreement) with Hong Kong in 2003, basically gave preferential status to trade through Hong Kong. Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement This agreement was promptly turned into a tax loophole by the Hong Kong lawyers. Goods worth $1 is exported from the Mainland to Hong Kong at $1, so you don’t pay China taxes because no profit is made. Then the goods is exported from Hong Kong to the rest of the world for $10, and you don’t pay Hong Kong taxes either, because no “work” has been done in Hong Kong. Up to a quarter of Mainlands goods get to route through Hong Kong to evade tax. Trillions of dollars route through Hong Kong for money laundering. If you do it, you’ll be called a “criminal” and end up in jail. If the tycoons do it with their companies, it’s called “providing legal/financial services” and ended up being a large chunk of Hong Kong’s GDP.

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

Source: Taxing question of why China exports goods via Hong Kong

Limited vice - is a fact of life. but if your whole economic history is running drugs, whore houses, gambling, tax evasion, real estate monopoly, etc., you simply don’t have a garage to point to and say, so-and-so invented the personal PC here, and we can do it again! All major economic activities in Hong Kong are essentially parasitic activities which do not bring benefit to the rest of the society. Getting rich without doing an honest day’s work. Is there even a single example where a HKer can be both successful and good?

China has shaggy old buildings where so-and-so worked together for twenty years to launch its first satellite. It has a government who’s willing to fund basic research and armies of young scientists who are willing to devote the rest of their lives to research, without significant personal upside. It has harsh plains of dust and bare rocks where the first drop of oil was drilled. It has canals that took a thousand years to build. Gosh, it even has infrastructure to support rice farmers that was built 2500 years ago, still in-use! Dujiangyan Hard work, endurance, self-reliance, collaboration, and sharing are all part of its economic and cultural history, which is why China can have all sorts of “normal” industries growing there. Thank goodness!

The Chinese government has been prompting Hong Kong to shift into “more productive” things to do. Things that are not variations of “maximizing my own benefit at the expense of other people”. What about an industrial park? What about a leader in logistics? What about innovation? What about FinTech? This is what Hong Kong port looks like, compared with others, when it’s the only one who’s being dropping since 2006, and the only one who DOESN’T PAY TAXES!

香港人再不清醒,就要自己把自己玩死!

The people in Hong Kong have tried, and are still trying, but you can just see that the rest of China is doing all these things better and faster. Mobile pay is everywhere but not Hong Kong. Shared economy is everywhere but not Hong Kong. Electric vehicles are everywhere but not Hong Kong. eCommerce is everywhere but not as developed in Hong Kong… The people in mainland China is beginning to suspect that the Hong Kong people want money but are allergic to work, want democracy but are allergic to sharing. want to be respected but refuse to care about anybody else. How do you make something that other people will want if this is the way you feel about other people?

What kind of economy can the heirs of ill-gotten-gains build, for whom actually making or growing anything is too much work for too little money? That is the real question. Maybe the future is about getting out of Hong Kong, and go live a normal life someplace else.




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