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决策支持系统    By: Sam Vaknin, Ph.D.

(2009-07-04 21:49:20)
标签:

杂谈

许多公司在发展中国家有一个非常详细的报告制度下降的水平 , 单一产品,单一的供应商,某一天。 However, these reports – which are normally provided to the General Manager - should not, in my view, be used by them at all. 然而,这些报告-这通常是提供给总经理-不应该在我看来,使用它们。 They are too detailed and, thus, tend to obscure the true picture. 他们是太详细,因此,往往掩盖了真实情况。 A General Manager must have a bird's eye view of his company. He must be alerted to unusual happenings, disturbing financial data and other irregularities. 总经理必须有一个鸟瞰 , 他的公司。他必须警觉到不寻常的事件,令人不安的财务数据和其他违规行为。

As things stand now, the following phenomena could happen: 就目前情况来看现在,可能会发生下列现象:

  1.

  That the management will highly leverage the company by assuming excessive debts burdening the cash flow of the company and / or 的管理将高度充分利用了该公司承担过多的债务负担的现金流量的公司和/或
  2.

  That a false Profit and Loss (PNL) picture will emerge - both on the single product level - and generally. 一个虚假盈亏( PNL )图片将出现-包括对单一产品的水平-一般。 This could lead to wrong decision making, based on wrong data. 这可能会导致错误的决策,根据错误的数据。
  3.

  That the company will pay excessive taxes on its earnings and / or 该公司将支付过多的税 , 其收入和/或
  4.

  That the inventory will not be fully controlled and appraised centrally and / or 该清单将不会被完全控制和评估中央和/或
  5.

  That the wrong cash flow picture will distort the decisions of the management and lead to wrong (even to dangerous) decisions. 这种错误的现金流量图片将扭曲的决定 , 管理和导致错误的(甚至是危险的)决定。 

To assist in overcoming the above, there are four levels of reporting and flows of data which every company should institute: 帮助克服以上,有四个层次的报告和流动的数据 , 每家公司应该学会:

The first level is the annual budget of the company which is really a business plan. 第一个层次是年度预算的公司 , 实际上是一种商业计划。 The budget allocates amounts of money to every activity and / or department of the firm. 该预算拨出款项 , 以每一项活动和/或部门的公司。

As time passes, the actual expenditures are compared to the budget in a feedback loop. 随着时间的推移,实际支出预算相比的反馈回路。 During the year, or at the end of the fiscal year, the firm generates its financial statements: the income statement, the balance sheet, the cash flow statement. 在这一年里,或在财政年度结束时,该公司产生的财务报表:损益表,资产负债表,现金流量表。

Put together, these four documents are the formal edifice of the firm's finances. 集中在一起,这四个文件是正式大厦的该公司的财务状况。 However, they can not serve as day to day guides to the General Manager. 不过,它们不能作为日常导游总经理。

The second tier of financial audit and control is when the finance department (equipped with proper software – Solomon IV is the most widely used in the West) is able to produce pro forma financial statements monthly. 第二级财务审计和控制时 , 财务部(配有适当的软件-所罗门四是使用最广泛的西)是能够生产走形式每月财务报表。

These financial statements, however inaccurate, provide a better sense of the dynamics of the operation and should be constructed on the basis of Western accounting principles (GAAP and FASBs, or IAS). 这些财务报表,但是不准确,提供了一个更好地了解动态的操作 , 应当建造的基础上 , 西方会计原则( GAAP 和FASBs ,或国际会计准则) 。

But the Manager should be able to open this computer daily and receive two kinds of data, fully updated and fully integrated: 但是 , 经理应该能够打开这台电脑每天都收到两种类型的数据,全面更新 , 并充分结合:

  1. Daily financial statements; 日常的财务报表;
  2. Daily ratios report. 每日比率报告。 

The daily financial statements 每天的财务报表

The Manager should have access to continuously updated statements of income, cash flow, and a balance sheet. 经理人应该有机会获得不断更新的收支报表,现金流量和资产负债表。 The most important statement is that of the cash flow. 最重要的是 , 声明的现金流。 The manager should be able to know, at each and every stage, what his real cash situation is - as opposed to the theoretical cash situation which includes accounts payable and account receivable in the form of expenses and income. 经理人应该能够知道,在每个阶段,他的实际现金状况是-而不是理论上的现金状况 , 其中包括应付账款和应收账款的形式 , 费用和收入。

These pro forma financial statements should include all the future flows of money - whether invoiced or not. 这些形式上的财务报表应包括所有的未来流入的资金-不论是发票或没有。 This way, the Manager will be able to type a future date into his computer and get the financial reports and statements relating to that date. 这样一来,经理将能够输入一个未来的日期 , 到他的电脑 , 让财务报告和财务报表有关的数据。

In other words, the Manager will not be able to see only a present situation of his company, but its future situation, fully analysed and fully updated. 换句话说,经理将无法看到一个现状 , 他的公司,但其未来的状况,充分分析和完全更新。

Using today's technology - a wireless-connected laptop – managers are able to access all these data from anywhere in the world, from home, while traveling, and so on. 用今天的技术-无线连接的笔记本电脑-管理人员能够获得所有这些数据从世界上任何地方,从家里,而旅行,等等。

The daily ratios report 每日比率报告

This is the most important part of the decision support system. 这是最重要的部分决策支持系统。

It enables the Manager to instantly analyse dozens of important aspects of the functioning of his company. 它使管理员能够即时分析几十个重要方面的运作情况 , 他的公司。 It allows him to compare the behaviour of these parameters to historical data and to simulate the future functioning of his company under different scenarios. 这让他的行为比较这些参数的历史数据和模拟今后的运作 , 他的公司根据不同的情况。

It also allows him to compare the performance of his company to the performance of his competitors, other firms in his branch and to the overall performance of the industry that he is operating in. 它也可以让他的表现比较 , 他的公司的业绩 , 他的竞争对手,其他公司在其分支机构和整体性能的行业 , 他经营英寸

The Manager can review these financial and production ratios. 经理可以查看这些财务和生产比率。 Where there is a strong deviation from historical patterns, or where the ratios warn about problems in the future – management intervention may be required. 如果有一种强烈的偏离历史模式,或在警告的比率问题在未来-管理干预的可能需要。

Instead of sifting through mountains of documents, the Manager will only have to look at four computer screens in the morning, spot the alerts, read the explanations offered by the software, check what is happening and better prepare himself for the future. 相反的筛选山区的文件,经理将只能看四个电脑屏幕上午,现场警示,阅读说明所提供的软件,检查所发生的情况 , 更好地准备自己的未来。

Examples of the ratios to be included in the decision system 例子比率将列入决策系统

  1. SUE measure - deviation of actual profits from expected profits; 苏措施 -偏差的实际利润预期的利润;
  2. ROE - the return on the adjusted equity capital; 交战规则 -的回报率 , 调整后的股本;
  3. Debt to equity ratios; 债务与股本的比率;
  4. ROA - the return on the assets; 居留权 -回报的资产;
  5. The financial average ; 金融平均 ;
  6. ROS - the profit margin on the sales; 活性氧 -利润的销售;
  7. ATO - asset turnover, how efficiently assets are used; 阿托 -资产周转率,如何有效资产的使用;
  8. Tax burden and interest burden ratios; 税务负担和利息负担比例;
  9. Compounded leverage ; 复合杠杆 ;
  10. Sales to fixed assets ratios; 出售固定资产的比率;
  11. Inventory turnover ratios; 存货周转率;
  12. Days receivable and days payable ; 天应收帐款和应付帐款天 ;
  13. Current ratio, quick ratio, interest coverage ratio and other liquidity and coverage ratios; 流动比率,速动比率,利息覆盖率和其他流动性和覆盖范围的比率;
  14. Valuation price ratios; 估价价格的比率;
  and many others. 和许多其他问题。 

The effects of using a decision system 的影响 , 使用决策系统

A decision system has great impact on the profits of the company. 决定系统具有很大的影响 , 该公司的利润。 It forces the management to rationalize the depreciation, inventory and inflation policies. 它迫使管理合理化的折旧,存货和通货膨胀的政策。 It warns the management against impending crises and problems in the company. 它警告说 , 对即将发生的危机管理中的问题和公司。 It specially helps in following areas: 它专门帮助在以下几个方面:

  1.

  The management knows exactly how much credit it could take, for how long (for which maturities) and in which interest rate. 管理确切知道有多少信贷可能需要多久(这些到期)和利息率。 It has been proven that without proper feedback, managers tend to take too much credit and burden the cash flow of their companies. 已经证明 , 如果没有适当的反馈,管理人员往往会花太多的负担 , 信贷和现金流量的公司。 

  2. A decision system allows for careful financial planning and tax planning. 决定系统可以仔细的财务规划和税务规划。 Profits go up, non cash outlays are controlled, tax liabilities are minimized and cash flows are maintained positive throughout. 利润上升,非现金支出的控制,尽量减少税务负债和现金流量保持积极整个。 

  3. As a result of all the above effects the value of the company grows and its shares appreciate. 由于所有上述影响公司价值的增长 , 其股票升值。 

  4. The decision system is an integral part of financial management in the West. 该决策系统的一个组成部分的财务管理在西方。 It is completely compatible with western accounting methods and derives all the data that it needs from information extant in the company. 它完全符合西方的会计方法和产生的所有数据 , 它需要从现存的资料中的公司。 

So, the establishment of a decision system does not hinder the functioning of the company in any way and does not interfere with the authority and functioning of the financial department. 因此,建立一个决策系统不会阻碍该公司的运作以任何方式和不干预的权力和职能的财政部门。

Decision Support Systems cost as little as 20,000 USD (all included: software, hardware, and training). 决策支持系统的成本只有20,000美元(所有包括:软件,硬件和培训) 。 They are one of the best investments that a firm can make. 他们的最佳投资之一 , 一个公司可以。 

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