加载中…
个人资料
透明的浅蓝
透明的浅蓝
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:29,498
  • 关注人气:2
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
相关博文
推荐博文
谁看过这篇博文
加载中…
正文 字体大小:

不列颠的警钟

(2011-09-02 08:06:42)
标签:

皇家空军

军事能力

国防预算

f-35

国防部

削减

分类: 武备

Britain’s Warning 

不列颠的警钟

 

By Adam J. Hebert 
Editor in Chief 
Adam J. Hebert 主编
 
Through military cuts, the UK is accepting a smaller role in the world.

随着军费削减,英国将在世界事务中将扮演越来越小的角色。

 

The immediate federal budget crisis passed Aug. 2 when President Obama signed the Budget Control Act of 2011. The legislation raised the nation’s debt ceiling and set the groundwork for additional action to cut the massive federal deficit.

八月份联邦预算危机刚刚过去。奥巴马总统签署了2011预算法案。国会提高了国债上限,同时为减少庞大的联邦赤字的行动打下了基础。

 

The national security impact of the deal is to cap "security spending"—a category that includes DOD and other accounts at $684 billion—not including war funding. This represents a cut of $5 billion (or less than one percent) compared to this year.

这个政策对国家安全的影响是戴上了一顶“安全支出”的帽子--国防部和其他一些账户上高达6840亿美元开支,这其中不包含战争费用。这表示相比去年要消减50亿美元(或者不足一个百分点)。

 

The real danger lies in the future as the government looks for ways to balance its books, or at least bring the balance of revenues and expenditures back to something resembling sanity. The first hurdle the nation needs to clear comes before Thanksgiving.

今后真正的危险在于,政府寻找平衡账面的途径,或者做到至少看起来是收支平衡。第一个障碍就是这感恩节以前要实现清零。

 

The 2011 budget act created a 12-person supercommittee to formulate a plan to cut the budget deficit by $1.5 trillion between 2012 and 2021. This is where things get really interesting.

2011预算法案设立了一个12人的委员会来起草一项计划,旨在2012-2021年度内削减预算赤字1.5万亿元。这是整个事情中真正有趣的地方。

 

Most observers expect DOD spending to either level off or decline in the coming years as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wind down and the nation moves to put its fiscal house in order. If the committee fails to come to an agreement by Nov. 23, however, the law calls for automatic, across-the-board federal spending cuts. These will slash nearly $50 billion annually from the Pentagon’s coffers alone.

大多数观察家期望,在随着来年当伊拉克和阿富汗的局势平稳,国防部的开支能持平或者减少。如果委员会不能在11月23日达成协议,国会将自动启动全面的联邦开支消减。这将会每年从五角大楼的金库中砍掉500亿美元。

 

Nothing focuses the mind quite like a deadline, so this provision may be a brilliant ploy to force an agreement, to avoid what everyone fears: draconian, arbitrary cuts.

没有别的,除了关注这本质上是最后期限的意见,因此这个条款可能促成这个协议,以避免公众的担忧:严苛而随意的消减。

 

Although a sensible defense budget is the goal, the trigger mechanism could backfire: A sudden nine percent cut to the defense budget courts disaster. To see how, simply look to the situation in the United Kingdom, which is facing a similar set of financial problems.

虽然目标是要实现合理的国防预算,但是这个自动生效的条款可能会适得其反:突然将国防预算消减百分之九会导致灾难。我们来看看会怎样,简单的考察一下英国现在的情况,它现在也正在面临一些类似的财政问题。

 

Newly elected Conservative Party Prime Minister David Cameron released a defense white paper last October that rolled out an austerity plan gutting military capabilities.

新当选的保守党首相卡梅伦在去年10月发布了国防白皮书,推出了抽空军事能力的缩减计划。

 

This shows the perils of budget-based planning. Among the specifics in the UK’s strategy:

从英国政策的细节,可以的看出以预算为基础的计划带来的风险:

  • The combined RAF and Royal Navy fleet of Harriers is sent to early retirement.
  • 皇家空军和皇家海军的鹞式战机被提前退役。
  • A plan to purchase short takeoff F-35 strike fighters is canceled to instead procure the less expensive carrier F-35 at a later date.
  • 采购能够短距起飞的F-35的计划取消,取而代之的是在晚些时候获得便宜的舰载F-35。
  • The combination of the first two items will shockingly leave the UK for fully a decade with two new aircraft carriers but no fighters to fly off of them.
  • 第一项以及第二项让联合王国在整整10年内,装备两首全新的航母,但是没有可以在他们上面起飞的战机。
  • All 20,000 British troops based in Germany will be brought home.
  • 全部20000名驻扎在德国的英国军人将撤回。
  • Three RAF bases will be shuttered.
  • 三个皇家空军的基地将被关闭。
  • 17,000 uniformed troops will be cut overall, including 5,000 from the RAF.
  • 裁剪17000名正规军,包括5000名皇家空军。
  • 25,000 defense civilians will be turned loose onto the mean streets of Whitehall.
  • 25000名民兵将被解散,流落在白厅的穷街陋巷。

An upgrade program for Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft was canceled, with the aircraft abruptly sent to retirement.

一项有关“猎迷”海上巡逻机的升级计划被取消,相关飞机立即退役。

 

The separate Nimrod reconaissance fleet was also retired, leaving a gap until RC-135s arrive in 2013.

独立的猎迷侦察机队也将退役,留下的缺口将在2013年由RC-135填补。

 

These dramatic moves represented a roughly nine percent reduction in UK defense spending—the same cut the Pentagon base budget faces if no debt plan is approved this fall.

这些戏剧性的变化体现了大约百分之九的英国国防预算削减--如果今年秋天不能达成债务计划,五角大楼的基本预算将面对同样的削减。

 

National security, in both the US and the UK, is derived first from a vibrant economy. It also requires that defense planners be able to plan for what the military is expected to do in the future. Britain negligently skipped the planning part (last October’s review was the first of its kind in 12 years) until the fiscal crisis hit.

国家安全,在美国和英国是一样的,首先都是经济波动的衍生物。它也需要防务计划的制定者能够规划对未来军队期望。英国直到财务危机来临都一直粗心地跳过了规划(回顾去年十月,12年来第一次出现这样的状况)。

 

An August report by the House of Commons’ defense committee shines a harsh light on this. "A gap of 12 years between reviews should never be allowed to occur again," the report states.

一份下议院防务委员会八月份的报告中明确的指出这一点。报告声明,“考察中12年的空白决不能再次发生”。

 

The UK government’s plan reduces power and influence, and the nation’s role in the world will be diminished— perhaps never to be rebuilt.

英国政府的计划降低了国家的实力和影响力,同时英国在世界上的角色也被减弱--可能再也不会重建。

 

"A period of strategic shrinkage is inevitable," the report states. "The government appears to believe that the UK can maintain its influence while reducing spending, not just in the area of defence but also at the foreign office. We do not agree."

“一个时期的战略收缩是必然的。”报告声称,“政府看起来相信在减少开支的同时英国可以保持它的影响力,不仅在国防事务上在在海外事务上也能保持影响力。但是,我们不同意这种看法”

 

Britain has already felt the strain. Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 to 2009 placed more demand on the nation’s armed forces than the UK expected to face when it set its force size. In other words, the report notes, these two medium-size wars resulted in UK military "overstretch."

英国已经感受到了压力。2006-2009在伊拉克和阿富汗的行动对国家军力的需求超出了英国当初所期望的军力规模。换句话说,报告提醒,这两场中型战争超出了英国军力的承受能力。

 

The problem may only get worse. Retired Air Chief Marshal Jock Stirrup, former RAF head and chief of the defense staff, told the committee the UK’s plan appears to commit every military capability just to deal with continuing operations. This leaves nothing in reserve for surprises or larger contingencies.

问题只会越来越严重。退役的空军上将Jock Stirrup,前皇家空军的领导和国防部部长,告诉委员会,英国的计划表明军事能力刚刚够应付已有的行动。没有给任何意外和临时需要你下余地。

 

The government’s plan to deal with what the report calls "the legacy of overstretch" is to do less and make hopeful assumptions. The UK’s plan now implies the nation would not even attempt operations like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars simultaneously.

政府处理报告中说声称“军力不堪承受”的计划不过是不作为和做一些美好的假设。英国目前的计划意味着国家不想从事像在伊拉克和阿富汗同时进行的这种任务。

 

British cuts leave severe capability gaps. Recovering will require a funding infusion as operations in Afghanistan end.

英国的削减造成了严重的能力缺失。恢复将需要一大笔像阿富汗战争末期一样庞大的资金。

 

The UK is, in essence, accepting a smaller role in the world. This comes with consequences—less ability to influence others, defend its interests, and exert power over long distances.

本质上,英国愿意世界上扮演一个小角色。随之而来的结果---对别人更小的影响力,保护自己的利益,同时间接地运用这种力量。

 

Similarly, the US military defends the nation and its interests across a spectrum ranging from full-scale combat to worldwide disaster relief. It would be a shame to head down the UK’s road by ceding global leadership to generate short-term cost savings.

同样的,美国的军事力量保护国家和国家利益,从全面战争到全球救灾。遗憾的是它正在沿着英国的道路前行,为了谋求短期的节省成本而放弃世界的领导权。

 

"I will do everything I can to ensure that further reductions … are not pursued in a hasty, ill-conceived way that would undermine the military’s ability to protect America," wrote new Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta in an Aug. 3 message to DOD personnel.

“我要尽我所能确保未来的削减。。。不被仓促驱赶,计划不周到的方式会损害保卫美国的军事能力,”这是新任国防部长在8月3日写给个国防部全体人员的一段话。

"This potential deep cut … is not meant as policy," he continued. "Rather, it is designed to be unpalatable, to spur responsible, balanced deficit reduction and avoid misguided cuts to our security."

“这是潜在的深层次的削减。。。不仅是政策意味,”他继续写到。“宁愿,这样做只是为了让人不爽,为了激励责任心,平衡赤字缩减以及避免错误地削减了我们的安全。”

 

The debt commission and Congress can prevent scorched earth defense cuts by coming up with a rational debt reduction plan. They need to get this right.

债务委员会和国会能够提出合理的债务缩减计划,来阻止这种不理智的国防削减。他们要承担起他们的责任。

0

阅读 评论 收藏 转载 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  • 评论加载中,请稍候...
发评论

    发评论

    以上网友发言只代表其个人观点,不代表新浪网的观点或立场。

      

    新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 电话:4000520066 提示音后按1键(按当地市话标准计费) 欢迎批评指正

    新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 会员注册 | 产品答疑

    新浪公司 版权所有