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科特勒智谋:收购通用汽车!

(2009-05-20 17:09:21)
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分类: 科特勒谋略

Chinese Auto Makers Should Buy GM

中国汽车制造商应该收购通用汽车

 

Milton Kotler

米尔顿.科特勒

 

There are once-in-a-opportunities that meet strategic objectives.

Chinese auto makers will enter the U.S. But there are two ways to do this. One way is to start from scratch and inch your way up over a decade of high costs for technology, operations, promotion and dealerships. This is how the Japanese and Koreans did it. For a variety of reasons, this does not suit China. The learning curve is too steep. The other way is through acquisition of infrastructure at a bargain price. This is the only way China can succeed in this goal. GM will go bankrupt, even if it gets a temporary bailout this week. Chapter 11 bankruptcy procedures are already being designed in Washington and Detroit. Restructuring is inevitable. This means that plant, workforce, technology and dealerships on the table for sale at fire sale prices. GM will need buyers for this surplus capacity in any downsizing re-organization. It also means that forfeited to make the re-organization possible.

    现在有一个难得的机会让中国汽车制造商达到进入美国市场的战略目标,但有两种方法来达到:一种从头开始,为技术、运作、推广和经销网络建设付出十年的高额代价,日本和韩国企业已经这样做了。但是各种各样的原因表明:这不适合中国企业。这样的学习过程太艰难。另一种方法是通过合理的价格并购美国的企业,这是中国企业成功的唯一途径。通用汽车即使在本周得到暂时的求助,也将面临破产,华盛顿和底特律方面正在设计破产程序,重组将不可避免。这意味着其生产基地、员工、技术和经销商网络都将被以非常低的价格出售。为缩减其多余的生产力,通用汽车需要买主,这也意味着为了重组的可能放弃很多。

 

SAIC, already a GM partner, and other Chinese makers, whether independently or in consortium, can come to the table and be helpful to the re-structuring process by purchasing critical assets that can jump-start China auto entry into the U.S. If China does not do this, Japanese, Korean and European makers will ruthlessly take away the prize pickings and strengthen their position in the U.S. market. A cooperative approach to acquisition and partnership with GM that give China an entry and preserves a downsized GM will be more welcomed by the American pub than a rape of assets by the Asian and European makers.

    已经是通用汽车合作伙伴的上汽集团,以及其它中国汽车厂商,无论是独立地或者联合地,现在可以来谈这场交易:通过购买可以帮助中国汽车进入美国市场的这些临危的资产,来帮助这个重组完成。如果中国不这样做,韩国、日本或者欧洲的汽车制造商将无情地占走这个便宜并巩固他们在美国市场的地位。一个合作型的并购及与通用的伙伴关系,给了中国一个进入机会并可以保存一个规模较小的通用汽车,显然比起被其他亚洲或者欧洲企业掠夺资产更受美国民众的欢迎。

 

The best approach would be a partnership that would offload some brands and dealerships to the Chinese and share U.S. technology and management. GM could secure its foothold in China; China can gain U.S. entry. GM may be able to survive with a small set of brands; China would enter with some GM low-price brands and indigenous China brands. Dealers would carry GM and Chinese vehicles. The details and negotiations for such an arrangement would be formidable but doable. The key thing is to come to the table and see what you can bet for this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

    最好的达成途径是形成合作伙伴关系,让渡部分品牌和渠道资产给中国并共享美国的技术与管理。通用汽车可以保全它在中国的立足点,中国厂商可以用通用的低价格品牌或者本土品牌进入美国市场,经销商可以销售通用汽车和中国汽车。这种安排的细节和谈判将是艰难的,但是可行。重要的是现在就去看你们能在这个一生只有一次的机会里获得什么。

 

I have been discussing this option for the past three years and private discussions have been held without public disclosure. But now is the time to make bring this option to public attention and enter the picture of a collapsing U.S. auto industry as a “Knight in Shining Armor.”  Under a very selective arrangement China can help save the U.S. auto industry, in a new form, while efficiently accomplishing its goal of auto globalization. A deal can be made that will strengthen GM in China, by admitting China into the U.S. market with a full set of resources for production an benefit GM designers for advancement in the China auto market. If done with proper negotiation and PR, this can be a win-win for GM and China. The devil is in the details. But details can be worked out.

    在过去的三年里我一直在谈论这种选择,私下里的讨论也很多。但现在是让公众注意这个选择并且象银甲骑士一样进入黑洞般的美国汽车行业的时候了。中国可以在一个非常挑剔的安排下拯救美国汽车工业,用一种新的形式,同时有效地达到汽车工业国际化的目标。这样一个生意可以加强通用汽车在中国的地位,同时也让中国汽车应用通用汽车在中国市场先的制造资源进入美国市场。如果通过合适的谈判和公关,这会是对通用汽车和中国汽车制造商双赢的方案。难点在于细节,但是可以被克服。

 

The public will respond favorably because GM will be demonstrating confidence in GM and the American market. The fate of GM workers moving to Toyota and Honda will be a raw in the belly of Americans. It will signify defeat. A Chinese partnership, on the other hand, would signify a strategic resurgence of American manufacture with Chinese investment.

    公众的反应将是正面的,因为通用汽车将能在其固有市场和整个美国市场证明信心。让通用汽车的员工转移到丰田和现代将是美国人心中的痛,而这将能被避免。一个中国的合作伙伴在另一方面意味着得到中国投资的美国制造的复苏。

 

Can the Chinese partners make money with such a venture? If a Chinese partnership, under bankruptcy re-organization, can focus is sales of low cost autos, melding GM technology with its Chinese design, then GM can focus on improving its upscale brands. The U.S. market for low-cost cars is enormous and growing, by global market volume standards. China could sell a lot. This leaves GM will the task of advancing fuel efficiency and technology on its high end brands to better compete with Japanese and European makers. It would give GM a strategic vision of excellence, instead of mixing and matching high-end improvement with manic new production of cheap cars. It would restore brand integrity to GM, and give entry to China, which is the world recognized leader of low-cost and value products.

    中国的合伙伙伴能够通过这场交易获利吗?如果这个中国合作伙伴,在参与通用的破产重组后,能将重点放在销售整合了通用汽车技术和中国设计的低成本汽车,通用汽车就能着重在较高端的品牌销售上。按照国际市场容量衡量,美国低价汽车市场非常巨大而且还在增长。中国汽车制造商可以在美国市场上销售很多。这将留给通用汽车在较高端市场上开发先进节能的技术,从而和日本和欧洲汽车竞争的任务。这将让通用汽车有一个卓越的战略愿景而不是象现在这样高端车和便宜车的混和。这也将使通用汽车的品牌形象变得清晰,并能够进入中国这个世界低价和经济型汽车的领导市场。

 

This is strategic thinking at its best. Strategy is largely misunderstood in modern academic management. Instead of dancing on complex diagrams and arcane language, real strategy is application of common sense in a thick forest of meandering and hypothetical paths. China needs a Zhu Ge Liang strategy: Move in a straight line with one general, while the opposition is desperately scrambling is every which way with a dozen generals at odds with each other.

    这是一个最好的战略构思。在现代管理理论中,战略被严重的误解。真正的战略是在布满蜿蜒河流和假想道路的密林里应用正常感觉,而不是用复杂的图表和难解的语言。中国需要的是诸葛亮式战略:在一个明确的方向上义无反顾地前行,而不是拼命爬行在每一条没有机会的道路上。

 

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