The Financial Crisis
金融危机
The private Western financial system is structurally broken. The extraordinary leveraging of capital, into hundreds of trillions of debt, created a bubble that had to burst. Capital assets have been decimated.
西方私有化的金融体系出现了结构性瓦解——他们将资本转化为数以百兆计债务，过度的财务杠杆制造了巨大的泡沫，这些泡沫必然破裂。资本资产已经大幅降低。
The excessive leveraging if credit was due to the failure to
regulate the debt origination, structure and transaction of
mortgage-backed securities, hedge funds, credit-default swaps,
derivatives and other innovative capital instruments. Alan
Greenspan has admitted his error. This admission is ominous because
what he could not have imagined has no intrinsic limits. We have
only seen the tip of the iceberg. After the housing bubble, we will
see the collapse of consumer credit and auto loans. Defaults on
credit cards have reached 7% and auto loans are beginning to
unwind.
过度的杠杆，是因为对债务来源的信用，包括住房抵押贷款担保、对冲基金、信贷违约掉期、衍生工具和其他金融创新工具的监管不足。格林斯潘已经承认了他的失误，这是一个不详的信号，就连他也没有想到居然这样缺乏限制，况且我们看到的还只是冰山一角。在房地产泡沫出现以后，我们将会看到消费信贷和汽车贷款的瓦解，信用卡违约已达到7%， 汽车贷款开始松弛。
Government bail-outs throughout the world will not work because there are not enough reserve capital assets to absorb an astronomical scale of debt.
Financial institutions are being nationalized and the financial sector is reduced.
政府向全世界发行优先股不会起作用，因为没有充足的资本储备来吸收天文数字的债务规模，金融机构正在收归国有，金融行业处于收缩。
Remaining private capital will continue to seek conservation in the safe haven of government bonds, which has virtually no yield when factored for inflation; and the downward speculative arbitrage of currencies. Government financial intervention is a powder keg of inflation. There is no end in sight.
剩余的私有资本将持续通过政府债券和向下的货币投机套利寻求自保，但考虑到通货膨胀，政府债券实际上没有收益；政府的对金融的干预是通货膨胀的火药桶，现在还看不到结束。
Economic Crisis
经济危机
The West is in technical recession. Collapse of the financial service economy has caused massive layoffs. The next distressed sector will be retail, which is 70% of the U.S. GDP. Retail growth is negative and will be devastated by credit suppression. Commercial real estate and brand equities will decline.
西方世界处于技术性衰退中，金融服务业的瓦解已经造成大规模的裁员，占全美GDP的70%的零售业将是下一个受到影响的行业，零售业处在负增长，并将遭到信用限制的打击。商业房地产和品牌权益将会下跌。
China, India and emerging economies will continue to grow at a lower rate, which distresses their need for higher growth to urbanize their large rural populations. Seven percent growth for China looks good in the West, but it is not enough for China. Yet the East will be better able to manage reduced growth than the West, which wrestles with negative growth. The growth imbalance is between the East and West is likely to last for a long time
中国，印度和其他新兴经济体将以较低的比率保持增长，较低的增长率干扰了他们农村人口城市化的进程。7% 的增长率对西方来说很好，但是对中国来说是不够的，但是相比需要与负增长的西方国家，东方国家能较好的处理增长率的下降并与负增长斗争，这种东西方增长的不平衡可能会持续较长时间。
The West became a consumer, financial and technology society while the East has became an industrial economy. The greatest mistake of the U.S. was its refusal to sell advanced technology and weapons to every buyer – its only growth sector in the real economy – to balance its trade deficits. American foreign policy butt heads with real economy, and advanced technology is migrating to the East. The West produced and sold credit, while the East produces things and moves to added value.
西方国家变成了一个消费型的金融和技术社会，而东方已经成为工业化的经济体。美国最大的错误是他拒绝向每一个购买者出售先进的技术和武器----这是它在实体经济中的唯一的增长的行业，来平衡它的贸易赤字。美国的外贸政策压制了实体经济，先进的技术会向东方转移。西方制造和销售信用而东方生产产品并向价值增加迈进。
Debt is only manageable as long as there is credit to recycle debt. Once Western credit became paralyzed, its debt has to be devalued. Industrial manufacture in the East can be managed by reducing variable costs. It is more flexible in tough times than finance.
There are no new economic growth drivers in the West. The hope of an alternative energy will be vitiated by falling oil prices. Equities will fall to the level of the real economy and it is very difficult to measure what the real economy is. U.S. agriculture is only three percent and manufacturing nine percent of the economy. Europe, traditionally with a higher manufacturing percentage of GDP, is rapidly declining, without a retail expansion offset. We will see soaring Western unemployment, political confusion, protectionism and social unrest. Wealth is shifting from West to East.
没有源自西方的新的经济增长，对替代能源的希望被正在降低的原油价格所损毁，股票权益将跌到实体经济的水平，而且很难衡量实体经济是怎样的。美国的农业只占经济总量的3%，制造业为经济总量的9%，传统上拥有占GDP较高比例的制造业的欧洲经济，在没有零售的扩展作为补偿的同时，正在迅速下降。我们将看到急速上升的西方失业率，政治混乱，保护主义和社会的动荡。财富正在从西方向东方转移。
Marketing Crisis
营销危机
Marketing created a consumer society based on consumer credit.
So long as finance was regulated, the leveraging of this credit
was limited. Deregulation took the cap off of leverage. Information
and media technology vastly enriched the perceived value of brands.
The dynamic interplay of brand enhancement, consumer credit and low
cost offshore production created vast profits in brand equities. In
recessions, brands, which are after all only perceived values, lose
their perceived value as savings become as stronger
value.
营销创造了基于消费信用的消费型社会，只要金融受到监管，信用杠杆是有限度的，取消管制去除了对杠杆的限制。信息和媒体技术极大的丰富了品牌所感知的价值，品牌提升，消费信用和低成本的离岸生产之间的动态的相互作用在品牌权益上创造了大量的利润。在萧条时期，品牌价值毕竟作为感知的价值，随着储蓄变得更重要而失去了很多价值。消费者转向仅重视对产品本身并对产品本身估价。当品牌的价值在西方国家下降，它在东方国家得到加强。品牌拥有所展示的财富遮蔽了真实的债务。
Marketing became vastly empowered by information technology, product innovation and management sophistication. On the B2C side, product marketing went too far in hyping demand with too many new and varying product models, distribution channels, aspiration and promotions. Financial credit marketing to consumers hyped supply with too many consumer credit instruments (redundant credit cards, interest only credit programs, excessive credit lines, sub-prime mortgages) and leveraged debt to users, who lacked the resources to handle this debt.
营销由于信息技术，产品创新和管理的进步得到极大的发展，在B2C方面，产品营销由于过度创新和多样化的产品模式，分销渠道和促销在刺激需求上走得太远；而对消费者的金融信用营销借由过多的消费者信用工具（过多的信用卡，对信用项目的过大的兴趣，超宽的信用产品，房地产次级贷款）和对使用者的杠杆债务（却缺乏资源去掌控这些债务），过多的刺激了供给。
On the B2B side, financial marketing technology and management
innovation, without regulatory restraint, created sophisticated and
impenetrable financial instruments (Mortgage backed securities,
credit defaults swaps, repos, and other instruments) and sold them
to financial institutions, which were incentivized by bonuses to
buy this stuff, rather than scrutinize it. This has been an
explosive combination of B2B and B2C marketing to consumers and to
financial institutions.
在B2B方面，金融营销技术和管理创新由于没有监管的限制而创造了复杂的和令人费解的金融工具（住房抵押贷款担保，信用违约掉期，回购和其他工具）并销售给金融机构，这些金融机构为奖金所激励而购买却没有去详细研究这些产品。这种B2B和B2的营销组合对消费者和金融机构具有爆炸性的效果。
It is not enough to regulate financial institutions at a macro-level. Micro consumer credit has to be regulated as well, along with product marketing. Even with a tightening of credit, clever and ruthless lenders will devise and sell new products to desperate consumers to get them out of their mess and find ways to sell this paper to traders desperate to sustain their wealth management business. These practices will make matters worse.
仅在宏观层面上对金融机构的监管是不够的，微观上消费者信用和产品营销同时需要得到监管。甚至有了紧缩的信用，狡猾冷酷的放贷者会设计并销售新的产品给哪些急于摆脱困境的消费者，千方百计把这些单据卖给拼命想维持财富管理生意的交易商。这些活动会使事情变得更糟。
Governments will have to empower their retail trade authorities
to monitor and restrain both demand and supply products and their
advertising claims. Marketing has to be regulated. In desperate
situations, criminal penalty is the only restraint on fraudulent
invention. Voluntary restraint flies out the window. Branding will
have to be compelled to become responsible. In a deep recession we
will see a tremendous shift from brand to value marketing…a
movement from perceived value to demonstrated
value.
政府将不得不授权他们的零售交易管理机构去监督和限制产品的供应和需求以及他们的广告声明，营销需要被监督，在极端情况下，违法罚款是对欺骗性的发明的唯一惩戒。自律不再可行。品牌应该被强制要求变得负责任，在更深的衰退中，我们将看到大规模的从品牌到价值营销的转变，即从感知的价值到可展示的价值的转变，我们将回归本源。
Situation in the U.S.
美国的情况
The U.S. is in a recession and it will be prolonged. With the nationalization of financial institutions we are not dealing with a cyclic phenomenon but with structural change. Structural change takes a long time to reach stability and gain trust. In the meantime the bankruptcy for companies and households will lead to austerity instead of “life style”.
美国处在衰退中，衰退期将被拉长。在金融机构国家化的过程中，我们并不是经历一个循环而是一个结构性的改变。结构性的改变需要经过长时间才能达到稳定状态并获得信任。 同时，公司和家庭的破产将导致紧缩而不仅仅是生活方式的改变。
Unemployment in the U.S. has reached 7% and will probably jump
to 9% by the time the October storm is reported.
美国的失业率已达到7%，而且可能在这次10月风暴被报道的时候跃升至9%。当公司在下一年度做出调整以应对疲弱的圣诞采购季节的时候，失业率就会攀升更高。圣诞节的销售一般占到全年度零售额的30%。离开圣诞节，公司将会在国内市场采取紧缩政策。只有70%的年度零售额，国内对雇佣的紧缩幅度将会是非常大的，我们可能看到一个日本式的停滞的10年，它在那里发生过，它也可能在美国发生。
U.S. companies will continue to shift marketing investment to
the East, where economies will continue to grow, albeit at a low
rate. The economy of large populations growing at a slower rate is
much more attractive than smaller populations with no economic
growth. U.S. dollar strength, backed by military power will reduce
export and political passions will insure protectionism is a futile
attempt to recover domestic manufacture. The trend toward personal
and household savings will not fuel a domestic renaissance of
manufacture.
美国公司就持续将营销投资转移的东方国家，这里经济持续增长，虽然比率较低，拥有庞大人口，增长比更小的经济比人口较少但没有增长的经济更富有吸引力。有军事力量支持的美元强势就减少出口，政治的热情使得保护主义对恢复国内生产的企图失效。个人和家庭积蓄的倾向不支持国内制造业的复兴。
With falling exports, the U.S. will be compelled to do what it has resisted for years – sell advanced technology and weapons to everyone as the only basis of trade balance or surplus. This will require a strategic alliance with China – a repeat of 1972 Nixon/Kissinger secret diplomacy, but in a new context and a new deal. The deal will probably sacrifice Japan, as 1972 sacrificed Taiwan.
出口的下降使得美国不得不从事它多年以来一直抵制的事情—为贸易平衡和盈余而销售先进的技术和武器给所有人。这要求与中国形成战略联盟—对1972年尼克松和基辛格秘密外交的重复，但是是在新的背景和交易下进行。这种交易将可能牺牲日本，就像在1972年牺牲台湾一样。
The U.S. population will grow through immigration, legal and illegal, to lower labor costs for the arduous effort to revive the manufacture of low cost goods and expand domestic consumer demand. Protectionism will assist this attempted renewal. Conservative capital will continue to seek the wealth safe haven of U.S. military-based security. Investment capital will fly to growth markets in the East, along with domestically unusable management talent. Foreign currency reserves will finance the Eastern acquisition of Western assets. It is hard to say how the society will manage social unrest.
为了降低劳工成本以恢复低成本产品的生产和拓展国内消费需求，美国的人口将通过合法的和非法的移民增长，贸易保护主义者将协助这种所期望的复兴。保守资本将继续寻找基于美国军事保护下的安全的财富天堂，投资资本和国内管理人才将投奔东方的增长的市场。外汇储备将为东方对西方资产的并购筹措资金。很能想象社会会怎样应付动荡的局面。
Situation in Europe
欧洲的情况
Europe is in a deeper pickle than the U.S. They will have a prolonged recession, political fragmentation, protectionism and a tortured lowering of their fabled life style. The Euro will reach parity with the dollar and probably go lower. Indeed, it may disintegrate as a currency.
欧洲相比美国面临更大的困境，他们将有更长的衰退，政治分离，贸易保护主义和对虚构的生活方式的降低所带来的痛苦。欧元会变得与美元等值或更低，甚至，它作为一种货币可能解体。
The failure to pass an EU constitution was fatal. If it could
not pass in a prosperous time, it certainly cannot pass in a
desperate time, when every nation will look out for its own
survival and not trust any common accord to insure survival. There
is too much disparity of national conditions in Europe for unity of
action. Stronger countries cannot carry weaker countries on their
back when they can hardly walk themselves.
There is too much embedded welfare in Europe to support capital formation; serous unwinding of welfare in a continent of high unemployment will cause serious social unrest. The economy will be paralyzed, which is a step worse than stagnation. Stagnant societies can act; paralyzed societies cannot. Europe’s failure to create an independent military was always the Damoclean Sword of the Euro.
欧洲宪章没有得到通过是致命的，如果它没有能够在繁荣时期得到通过，它肯定不能在当每一个国家都关注它自己的生存而不相信任何确保生存的共同协议的令人绝望时候得到通过。在统一行动上，欧洲的国家情况有太多的不一致，在强国都难于自保的时候，他们不会去向弱国伸出援手。欧洲在支持资本的形成中有太多嵌入的福利，在一个高失业率的欧洲，对福利的降低会造成严重的社会动荡，经济会瘫痪，这种经济瘫痪比停滞更加严重，经济停滞的社会还能够运行，瘫痪的社会无法运行，欧洲未能创建独立的军队将成为欧洲的达摩克里斯之剑。
Situation in China
中国的情况
China will be affected by the global economic crisis. Growth is
falling to 9% growth and will likely descend to 7%. But China still
has $2 trillion of currency reserves, a stable budget and
manageable debt. Remarkably, retail is up 30% and exports grew 28%
in the last quarter. China’s established model for production of
cheap goods is serving her well in these bad times because the
whole world now needs cheap goods.
中国将受到全球经济危机的影响，经济增长下降到9%，而且可能降低到7%，但中国仍然保持2万亿美元的外汇储备，稳定的预算和可控的债务。引人注目的是，零售业上升了30%，上一个季度出口增长了28%，中国所建立的廉价商品的生产模式在糟糕的时期帮了中国的大忙，因为现在全世界都需要便宜的商品。
China will manage a balance between its continuing export economy and the growth of its domestic economy. Chinese policy is smart enough and authoritative enough to induce or force savings into consumption for domestic expansion. Its trade policy and acumen is smart enough to find new niches of the export of cheap goods as well as new niches for value added export. This balance will be a wonder to behold, but it will be done and achieved.
中国将维持它的持续出口的经济和国内经济的增长的平衡，中国的政策足够的聪明和权威以至于能诱导和促使储蓄进入到国内市场的消费扩张中。它的贸易政策和敏锐度足够聪明以至于能发现新的出口廉价商品的新的利基市场和价值增加的出口的新的利基市场。这样的平衡看起来是个奇迹，但它会被达到和实现。
Chinese currency reserves will support its enterprises to acquire bargain production, brand and distribution assets abroad for higher profit margins. High distribution margins through ownership can offset higher production costs. In-country production and distribution will off-set protectionism. The economy will have sufficient growth to manage internal harmony. China will augment its world power when technology investment produces competitive value added products and advanced technology. When China has a reliable technology based in its production system, it will make the Rmb convertible. It will become a global reserve currency and, unlike Europe, will fortify this currency will increase military strength.
中国的外汇储备将支持它的企业对海外生产，品牌和渠道资产的并购以获得更高的利润。渠道的高额利润可以抵消高的生产成本，而所在国家的生产和分销可以抵消保护主义，充足的经济增长可以保持内部的和谐，对技术的投资产生有竞争力的价值增值的产品和先进的技术，中国将增长它的全球力量。当中国拥有基于其生产体系上的可靠的技术，它将使人民币可兑换，它将变成全球储备货币，不像欧洲，中国将保护其货币并增长其军事力量。
Chinese Opportunity
中国的机会
Prolonged global recession will require more cheap goods, i.e. that is price-only and value goods vs. premium brands. China is the master of cheap goods production through its State policy models, low cost labor, industrial operations, entrepreneurial culture and supply chain management
The major threat of global protectionism must be pre-empted by the export of its production systems, not just products. China must have internal production and market access in foreign consumer markets do it can flood these recessionary markets with cheap goods. When factoring in high distribution margins, it can offset higher labor costs with distribution profits for a lower total cost than domestic competitors. Chinese domestic production and distribution in foreign markets will be accommodated (grudgingly) for employment and local tax generation.
延长的全球衰退对廉价商品有更多的需求，那就是关注价格和价值而不是溢价品牌商品。中国通过它的国家政策，低劳工成本，工业运作，企业家文化和供应链管理而熟练地掌握了廉价商品的生产。为提前应对全球保护主义的主要威胁，中国应该出口它的生产体系而不仅仅是产品。只有当拥有了在国外消费市场的当地生产和市场渠道，中国才能在这些衰退的市场中填充它生产的廉价商品。考虑到分销渠道的高利润的因素，它能通过渠道利润抵消高的劳工成本而实现比国内的竞争对手更低的总体成本。中国在国外市场的生产和分销因就业和税收的考虑将被（勉强）接纳。
China can transplant the Shenzhen SEZ (Special Economic Zone)
model to foreign markets. SEZ is an integration of public capital
support, incentive policies, subsidies and private investment in
development, production, logistics and marketing. China’s can
develop Sino-U.S. and Sino-EU economic zones in the U.S. and
Europe. China and its municipal and provincial governments can
retain tax revenues by supporting its enterprises abroad. U.S.
state governments, like Kentucky and certain European countries
will welcome this entry to alleviate unemployment and produce new
local taxes. These zones will be partnerships with domestic
companies, but Chinese enterprise will have joint control of
production, brand, logistics and distribution assets.
中国可以把深圳经济特区的模式移植到国外市场，深圳经济特区在建设，生产，物流和营销方面拥有一体化的公共资本支持，激励性的政策，补贴和私人投资。中国可以在美国和欧洲发展中美和中欧经济区，中国政府以及省市政府可以通过而保留税收收入支持海外企业，美国州政府，如肯塔基和欧洲国家将因能减缓失业以及产生新的当地税收而欢迎这些企业的进入。这些经济区会与当地的企业建立伙伴关系，但中国企业将联合控制生产，品牌，物流和渠道资产。
Land costs are cheaper in many State of the U.S. than in Guangdong.
Chinese enterprise will use local management talent desperate for work
These new zones will be very large and require intelligent planning, artful political negotiations and foreign legislative protection. Unlike current ad hoc Chinese enterprise acquisition in the U.S. and Europe that are scattered and fragmented, these SEZ zones will provide political protection of Chinese local assets. They will represent a new stage of Chinese globalization. Instead of the West penetrating the East during the period of good times, China will penetrate the West during the period of bad times.
美国的很多州的土地成本低于广东，中国的企业将使用当地的急切需要工作的管理人才，这些新的区域会非常大同时需要专业的规划，老练的政治谈判以及国外的立法保护，与中国现在单独的在美国和欧洲进行的海外并购不同，那些并购是分散的和不完整的，这些经济区将为中国的当地资产提供政治庇护，它将代表中国全球化的新的阶段，不是西方国家在好的时期在东方进行扩张，而是中国在经济糟糕的时期在西方进行扩张。
米尔顿•科特勒
顶