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《保险研究》2014年第9期目录及摘要

(2014-09-29 15:08:53)

我国保险公司并购银行的思考

郭茂佳

(深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心,广东 深圳 518060)

[摘要]在国内外保险巨头的率先示范、综合化经营的冲动、银行业利润高增长的诱惑和管理层不断松绑的背景下,我国保险公司并购银行本应呈现出多点开花的局面。然而,因受安联集团并购银行失败阴影,不看好平安保险并购银行言论和海内外看空、做空中资银行股势头的影响,迄今除平安保险以外,再难觅保险公司并购银行的成功案例。本文运用对比分析的方法,得出的主要研究结论是:安联集团并购银行失败的覆辙并非不可避免;平安保险并购银行的绩效足可以消除业内的诸多疑虑;现时中国保险公司并购银行的需求比当年的平安保险更迫切;未来中国保险公司并购银行取得成功的可能性比当年的平安保险更大。
[关键词]战略性并购银行;保银协同效应; 银保协同效应; 财务性并购银行


A Reflection on Chinese Insurers Acquiring Banks

GUO  Maojia

(Research Center for Chinese SEZs,Shenzhen Univ.,Shenzhen 518060)

Abstract:Under the domestic and international insurance giants’ setting an example,the impulse for integrated operation,the lure of high profit growth of the banking sector and the background of continued deregulation,the phenomenon of Chinese insurers acquiring banks should have blossomed.However,due to the Allianz Group’s failure in acquiring a bank,negative opinions on Ping An’s M&A deal for a bank,and bearish markets at home and abroad for bank stocks,no other successful M&A deals for banks can be found among Chinese insurers after the example of Ping An.This article applied the method of comparative analysis,and the main conclusions drawn from the analysis were: (1) Allianz Group’s M &A failure could be avoided;(2) Ping An’s performance at bank M & A was enough to eliminate many of the industry’s concerns;(3) the current demand of the China’s insurance industry for acquiring banks was more urgent than that of Ping An had been;(4) looking forwards,Chinese insurers could be more successful in  bank M&A transaction than Ping An.
Key words:strategic acquisition of banks;bancassurance synergy;insurance and banking synergy;financial acquisition of banks


IFRS4最新征求意见的评析及前瞻

徐华1 李思荟1 吴洪2

(1.西南财经大学保险学院,四川 成都 611130;2.深圳大学经济学院,广东 深圳 518060)

[摘要]由于保险会计的特殊性和复杂性,各国的保险会计准则具有差异性。为统一国际保险会计准则,国际会计准则理事会(IASB)于2004年发布了第一阶段成果——《国际财务报告准则第4号——保险合同》(IFRS4)。随着第二阶段工作的推进,IASB分别于2010年和2013年发布征求意见稿,在全球范围内进行意见征集。本文主要针对2013年7月IFRS4最新征求意见稿进行内容评析,并与当前我国保险会计实务进行对比,探讨了此次征求意见可能会对我国保险业产生的影响及我国保险公司应作的准备。
[关键词]国际财务报告准则;保险合同;保险会计


The Analysis and Prospect of IFRS4’s Latest Exposure Draft
 
XU Hua1,LI Sihui1,WU Hong2

(1.The School of Insurance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Sichuan Chengdu 611130;2.College of Economics,Shenzhen University,Gangdong Shenzhen 518060)

Abstract:Due to the particularity and complexity of insurance accounting,countries around the world have different accounting standards dealing with the insurance contract.To achieve a unified international insurance accounting standards,the International Accounting Standard Board (IASB) issued the International Financial Reporting Standards No.4 - Insurance Contracts (IFRS4) in 2004,which is the result of the phase-I working.With the advance of the phase-II working,IASB issued exposure drafts in 2010 and 2013 respectively,collecting views around the world.This paper analyzed IFRS4’s latest exposure draft issued in July 2013,comparing it with China’s insurance accounting practices.Then it discussed the possible impacts to China’s insurance industry and the preparations to be made by China’s insurance companies.
Key words:International Financial Reporting Standards;insurance contract;insurance accounting


Bootstrap方法在农业产量保险费率厘定中的应用

肖宇谷1  王克2  王晔3

(1.中国人民大学统计学院,北京 100872;2.中央财经大学中国精算研究院/中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京 100871;3.华农财产保险股份有限公司,北京 100037)

[摘要]农业产量保险的费率厘定常受到数据量少、产量分布选择不一致等问题的影响,使得费率制定者常常对结果的选择感到困惑,缺乏足够的可确信度。为此,本文用Bootstrap方法给出费率的区间估计以弥补点估计的不足。本文通过模拟测试,验证了Bootstrap方法费率点估计和区间估计的优良性。最后,对黑龙江14个县市的玉米产量数据做了实证分析。
[关键词]农业产量保险;费率厘定;Bootstrap;费率区间估计


The Application of Bootstrap Method in Ratemaking Procedure of Crop Yield Insurance

XIAO Yugu1,WANG Ke2,WANG Ye3

(1.School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;2.China Institute for Actuarial Science of CUFE/Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS,Beijing 100871;3.China Huanong Property & Casualty Insurance Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100037)

Abstract:The premium rating in crop insurance is easily impacted by the uneven yield distribution and the limited data size,and the result often looks uncertain and confusing even to the underwriters themselves.To overcome this shortcoming of point estimation,we used the Bootstrap method to obtain the range estimation for the premium rate.Using a Monte Carlo experiment,the performance of the Bootstrap method for range estimation and point estimation was tested with a favorable effect.Finally,we applied this method to price the corn insurance for 14 counties of Heilongjiang Province.
Key words:agricultural crop yield insurance;premium rating;Bootstrap method;range estimation


非寿险产品周期性及影响因素的比较分析——基于保险周期与承保周期理论

吴杰 粟芳

(上海财经大学金融学院,上海 200433)

[摘要]基于保险周期与承保周期的不同含义,利用1985~2012年的样本数据,本文利用CF滤波法计算了非寿险三大险种的保险周期与承保周期,并用多元回归模型分析比较了影响不同险种保险周期与承保周期的不同因素。研究结果发现:不同险种的保险周期基本一致,都为4至8年左右,也基本同时达到波峰或波谷;不同险种保险周期的影响因素也基本相同,主要受GDP、利率等宏观经济变量因素的影响。但是,不同险种的承保周期具有很大的差异,不但承保周期的长度差异很大,而且也并非同时达到波峰或波谷;不同险种承保周期的影响因素也各不相同,其中机动车辆保险的承保周期受各种因素的影响比较明显,而其他险种则除受赔款支出影响之外,其他因素的影响并不明显。因此,保险监管部门的逆周期监管应以承保周期为主要对象,并根据不同险种区别对待。
[关键词]非寿险;保险周期;承保周期;险种


Cyclicity of Nonlife Insurance Products and A Comparative Analysis of Influencing Factors—Based on Insurance Cycles and Underwriting Cycle Theory

WU Jie,SU Fang

(Finance School,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433)

Abstract:Insurance cycles should be different from underwriting cycles in theory.Based on the data of 1985-2012,we calculated the insurance cycles and underwriting cycles of three major nonlife insurance products using the CF filter method.Then the influencing factors for insurance cycles and underwriting cycles were analyzed using multiple regression models.The results showed that insurance cycles were almost the same for different insurance lines,falling within the range of 4-8 years,and hitting the crest or valley almost at the same time.The influencing factors were also similar,namely,GDP,interest rate and some other macroeconomic factors.But,underwriting cycles of different insurance lines were quite different,which was true for both the length of the cycle and the timing of the crest or valley.Their influencing factors were also different.For instance,the underwriting cycle of automobile insurance was affected by almost all internal and external factors,while cycles of property insurance and cargo insurance were affected only by their claims amount.Therefore,for counter-cyclical regulation by the relevant authority,the focus should be put on the underwriting cycle with due consideration for different insurance lines.
Key words:nonlife insurance;insurance cycle;underwriting cycle;insurance line


动态死亡率下寿险公司的准备金风险分析

孙佳美 刘志鹏

(南开大学经济学院,天津 300071)

[摘要]寿险产品定价方法一般采用静态的死亡率,没有考虑死亡率改善对保障类产品或年金类产品的影响,这样可能导致寿险公司的准备金估计过高或更低,进而影响寿险公司的经营。本文首先借助Monte Carlo方法模拟静态死亡率和动态死亡率下寿险公司的责任准备金分布,然后比较两种情况下寿险公司责任准备金风险的变化情况。结果表明,死亡率改善对寿险公司责任准备金的影响显著,建议寿险公司在产品设计时考虑死亡率改善因素。
[关键词]准备金风险;死亡率改善;Lee-Carter模型;Monte Carlo模拟


The Analysis of Reserve Risk in Life Insurance Company under Dynamic Mortality Rate

SUN Jiamei,LIU Zhipeng

(School of Economics,Nankai Uninversity,Tianjin 300071)

Abstract:Pricing methods of life insurance products generally use the static mortality rate,without considering the impacts of mortality improvement on protection-oriented insurance products and annuity products,which can lead to life insurance companies’ liability reserve being overestimated or underestimated,and in turn,affect the operation of life insurance companies.We first simulated the reserve distribution of life insurance companies under static and dynamic mortality rates by Monte Carlo method,and then compared them.The results showed that the mortality improvement had significant influence on life insurance liability reserve.Therefore,life insurance companies should consider the impacts of mortality improvement in product designing.
Key words:reserve risk;mortality improvement;Lee-Carter model;Monte Carlo simulation


税收优惠养老保险模式的最优选择——基于个人所得税税率的效应分析

马宁

(南开大学经济学院,天津 3000071)

[摘要]养老保险的税收优惠政策,是通过个人所得税的减免或延迟缴纳,对消费者起到购买的激励作用。因为,个人所得税能够对消费者工作期和退休期的收入产生影响,进而决定商业养老保险的购买。本文在动态最优框架下构建个人终身消费的最优路径,以最优消费来衡量不同税收优惠模式下的商业养老保险的效用。通过对比得出,在不同模式下,前端税率的收入效应均大于后端税率,即前端税率的大小对商业养老保险的选择具有决定性的影响;而当前后端税率相同时,在个人所得税税率替代效应的影响下,消费者更倾向选择EET模式的商业养老保险。
[关键词]个人所得税税率效应;税收优惠模式;养老保险最优选择

Optimal Choice of Preferential Tax Pension Insurance Mode—Based on the Analysis of Payroll Tax Ratio Effect

MA Ning

(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071)

Abstract:Preferential tax policies can stimulate consumer to purchase commercial pension insurance through the payroll tax deduction and deferred payment.Because the payroll tax can affect the income in the working period and the retirement period,it can decide the purchase of commercial pension insurance.We constructed the lifetime optimal consumption path under dynamic optimization to measure the effects of different preferential tax modes.After making the comparison,we found out that the income effect of front-end rate was more significant than the back-end rate,which meant that the front-end rate had a decisive role in the choice.We also discovered that the consumer preferred EET mode of pension insurance when the front-end rate was equal to back-end rate due to the replacement effect of payroll tax.
Key words:payroll tax ratio effect;preferential tax mode;optimal choice of pension insurance


医疗保险对老年人群住院行为及负担的绩效评价——基于中国健康与养老追踪调查的实证

刘明霞1 仇春涓2

(1.西南财经大学,四川 成都 610042;2.华东师范大学,上海 200241)

[摘要]面对人口老龄化日益严重的挑战,如何通过医疗保险实现“老有所医”越来越受到社会关注。本文以中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)项目 2011~2012年基线调查数据为样本,对参加三种基本医疗保险的不同年龄段老年人的特征与过去一年住院情况进行描述性分析,然后从住院行为、住院支出以及住院自付费用比例三个方面进行医疗保险的绩效评价。其中对住院行为和支出分别建立两部模型和样本选择模型进行实证分析,得出较为一致的结果,医疗保险显著提高了老年人群的住院率和住院支出,并且城镇职工医疗保险相对于城镇居民和新农合而言,提高的比例更大。对自付比例建立OLS进行实证,基本医疗保险显著降低了老年人群住院医疗费用的自付比例,但降低的程度根据医疗保险类型的不同而有所差异。
[关键词]医疗保险;老年人;住院;两部模型;样本选择模型


An Assessment of the Impacts of Basic Medical Insurance on Hospitalization Behaviors and Expenditure of Aged People—Based on CHARLS Results

LIU Mingxia1,QIU Chunjuan2

(1.Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Sichuan Chengdu 610042;2.East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241)

Abstract:With our population increasingly ages,how to ensure “care for the elderly” through medical insurance has become a social concern.Based on the data of CHARLS baseline survey during 2011-2012,the thesis descriptively analyzed characteristics and hospitalization records of aged people in different age groups who had participated into the three basic medical insurance programs.Then it assessed the impacts of these programs from the aspects of hospitalization behaviors,hospitalization expenditure,and out-of-pocket payment.It made an exponential analysis on hospitalization behaviors and expenditures through establishing a two-part model and  a sample selection model respectively.The findings were quite consistent.Firstly,basic medical insurance significantly increased hospitalization ratio and expenditure of aged people,and the ratio increase was more significant for participants to Basic Medical Insurance for Urban Employees than for participants to the Basic Medical Insurance for Urban Residents and the New Type Rural Social Medical Insurance Scheme.The exponential analysis on the out-of-pocket payment through the OLS model showed that the basic medical insurance significantly reduced the percentage of out-of-pocket payment for inpatient costs,though at different levels for different medical insurance programs.
Key words:medical insurance; elderly people; hospitalization; two-part model; sample selection model


遗产动机下家庭最优保险需求研究

李冠雄1 廖朴2

(1.中央财经大学金融学院,北京 100081;2.中央财经大学中国精算研究院,北京 100081)

[摘要]本文将遗产动机引入代际收入转移下的家庭消费—储蓄决策中,讨论了遗产动机下家庭在消费、投资、保险、教育方面的最优支出结构,特别关注家庭对年金和寿险的最优购买比例。研究结果显示,本文的理论结果能够很好地解释家庭在当期消费、风险投资、年金购买、人寿保险购买、教育等方面的支出决策。此外,本文为建立含有保险的宏观经济模型奠定了合理的微观基础,可以进一步研究人寿保险与经济增长的关系。
[关键词]遗产动机;代际收入转移;支出决策;OLG模型


Optimal Insurance Needs with Heritage Motivation

LI Guanxiong,LIAO Pu

(1. Central University of Finance and Economics, School of Finance, Beijing 100081;2. Central University of Finance and Economics, China Institute for Actuarial Science, Beijing 100081)

Abstract:This article introduced heritage motivation into the household consumption-savings model with inter-generational transfer payments to study the individual’s optimal decision on consumption,investment,insurance,and education expenses,particularly the optimal percentages of expenditures on annuity and life insurance.The results showed that the optimal expenditures on current consumption,investment,annuity,life insurance,and education expenses are consistent with the actual data.Besides,this article can be viewed as the micro foundation of macroeconomics model with the insurance sector embedded in it,which is helpful for the understanding of the relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth.
Key words:heritage motivation;inter-generational transfer payments;expenditure decisions;OLG model


多档次房贷支持债券在保险资金配置中的应用

宋强1 宋建明2

(1.南开大学经济学院,天津 300071;2.中国人民大学亚太法学研究院,北京 100086)

[摘要]中国的资产证券化实践始于1992年,20多年来市场规模不断扩大,市场规范性、专业性日益完善,市场活力逐渐增强,增长空间巨大。在美国,资产证券化又以房贷证券化居于最重要的地位。近年来我国住房抵押贷款的迅速增长,为资产证券化发展提供了良好支撑,而由房贷支持债券衍生出来的“多档次房贷支持债券”,更可以为保险公司、退休基金等机构在未来资产配置上提供优良的长期投资标的。因此本文首先通过对美国多档次房贷支持债券的起源、市场规模、现金流切割方式等进行回顾,同时对多档次房贷支持债券发行的各类子债券的特点进行分析,基于我国最近的监管发展提出其在保险资金配置中的应用的建议。
[关键词]资产证券化;多档次房贷支持债券;现金流切割;保险资金运用


The Use of Collateralized Mortgage-backed Bonds in Asset Allocation by Insurance Companies

SONG Qiang1,SONG  Jianming2

(1.School of Economics Nankai University,Tianjin 300071;2.RENMIN University of China Asia-Pacific Institute of Law,Beijing 100086)

Abstract:China started experimenting with securitization in 1992.The securitization market has grown with ever more vigor and sophistication in the past two decades.It so happens that home mortgages in China have seen rapid growth to provide a good foundation for further development of securitization in China.Moreover,collateralized mortgage obligations (CMO) structured from basic mortgage-backed securities further redistribute cash flows to create tranches of different new securities and enables insurance companies and pension funds better match their assets to long-term liabilities.This paper reviewed in depth the origin,markets,and tranching methodology of CMO in the US,analyzed the characteristics of different new securities created by tranching,and proposed applications for asset allocation by insurance companies based on recent regulatory developments.
Key words:securitization;collateralized mortgage obligations;cash flow tranching;asset allocation by insurance companies


超额现金持有、过度投资与代理成本——来自我国2006~2012年寿险公司的经验数据

赵景涛1 刘忠轶2 刘佳诚3

(1.北京大学经济学院,北京 100871;2.中国人民公安大学公安管理学院,北京 100038;3.清科集团,北京 100125)

[摘要]本文选取了2006~2012年间34家寿险企业作为研究样本,对寿险企业超额持有现金、过度投资以及二者间相关关系问题进行了实证研究。结果发现,中国寿险企业存在融资约束和超额持有现金问题,而由于寿险企业监管较严格,过度投资问题并不严重,但是超额持有现金与过度投资有着显著的相关关系。在寿险企业中,超额持有现金加重了代理问题,是造成过度投资的重要因素,并且资产规模越大,问题相对越严重。不过具有外资参股的寿险企业,过度投资问题相对轻一些。
[关键词]寿险企业;现金最优持有量;现金超额持有;过度投资


Excess Cash Holdings,Over-investment and Agency Cost—Based on Experience Data of Life Insurance Companies between 2006 and 2012

ZHAO Jingtao1,LIU Zhongyi2,LIU Jiacheng3

(1.School of economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871;2.School of police administration,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038;3.Zero2IPO Group,Beijing 100125)

Abstract:This paper mainly studied the excess cash holdings and over-investment based on the data of 34 life insurance companies between 2006 and 2012.Moreover,the relationship between excess cash holdings and over-investment was further explored.The results showed that there were the problems of capital constraint and excess cash holdings in China’s life insurance companies.Due to the stringent supervision,the problem of over-investment was not serious,but there was a significant correlation between excess cash holdings and over-investment.In life insurance companies,excess cash holdings increase the agency problem,which is the main factor of over-investment.The greater the asset is,the worse the problem is.However the over-investment problem is relatively light in the life insurance companies with a foreign stake.
Key words:life insurance companies;optimal cash holdings;excess cash holdings;over-investment


广义责任准备金:概念、计算及应用——基于流动性溢价的寿险精算技术

王波

(浙江广播电视大学工商学院,浙江 宁波 315016)

[摘要]资金运用是寿险公司经营发展的重要基础。基于利率期限结构的流动性溢价现象,利用资产负债管理中的现金流匹配思想提出了寿险资金运用的期长优先原则,并进一步给出责任准备金的两个投资法则。在此基础上建立了广义责任准备金的概念和计算方法,介绍了其在寿险定价和红利计算中的应用。应用分析表明,寿险预定利率主要由长期利率所决定,分红寿险的利差红利水平则主要取决于长期利率与预定利率之间的差距,这个结论为我国改革人身保险的预定利率政策提供了可靠的理论依据。与传统的概念相比,广义责任准备金能够更加深刻地反映出流动性溢价下寿险资金的优化运用过程,实现了精算技术与资产负债管理在优化意义下的统一。
[关键词]预定利率;流动性溢价;现金流匹配;广义责任准备金;寿险定价;利差计算


Reserve Distribution:Concept,Calculation and Application—Actuarial technique in life insurance under liquidity premium

WANG Bo

(Institute of Business of Zhejiang Radio and TV University,Zhejiang Ningbo 315016)

Abstract:The use of funds is an important foundation for the operation and development of life insurance companies.Based on the liquidity premium phenomenon of the term structure of interest rates,we proposed the principle of prioritizing long duration for life insurance fund investment for cash-flow matching in asset-liability management,and then offered two investment rules for liability reserves.On this basis,the concept and calculation method of reserve distribution were established,and its application to life insurance pricing and dividend calculation was also presented.The analysis showed that the assumed interest rate of life insurance was determined mainly by the long-term interest rates,and the dividend spreads of participating life insurance depended mainly on the difference of long-term interest rate and the assumed interest rate.This conclusion would provide a reliable basis for reforming the regulation on assumed interest rate in China.Compared with the traditional concept,reserve distribution could exhibit the optimization process of the use of life insurance funds more profoundly,and achieve the alignment of actuarial techniques and asset-liability management optimally.
Key words:assumed interest rate;liquidity premium;cash-flow matching;reserves distribution;life insurance pricing;spreads calculation


基于相依结构的多元索赔准备金评估随机性方法研究评述

段白鸽

(复旦大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系,上海 200433)

[摘要]索赔准备金评估方法的最新发展趋势是考虑相依结构的两类多元评估随机性方法,即将基于已决与已报案赔款之间的相关性、基于不同业务线之间的相依性体现在准备金评估的分析框架中。首先系统梳理两类多元评估随机性方法的最新进展,将一元评估方法的三个层次(无分布假设、分布模型假设、在分层结构下考虑各种分布假设)扩展到两类多元评估方法中。在多元框架下,将多元统计分析方法、精算学中的相依风险建模方法(多元分布模型、概率联结函数、共单调技术)应用到这三个层次中,探讨索赔准备金的均值和预测均方误差估计、预测分布的模拟问题。其次扩展考虑一元和多元框架下日益受到关注的含索赔通胀和会计年相依性问题。最后探讨这些评估方法在国外偿付能力监管中的应用。这将进一步拓展准备金评估不确定性风险度量的研究,推动精算学中定量风险管理技术的发展。
[关键词]相依结构;多元索赔准备金评估;分层模型;贝叶斯方法;概率联结函数


A Review on Multivariate Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods with Dependence Structures

DUAN Baige

(Department of Risk Management and Insurance,School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433)

Abstract:The latest development trend of claims reserving is the advances in two types of multivariate stochastic claims reserving methods with dependence structures,where the correlation of paid and incurred claims data and the dependencies among multiple lines of business are incorporated into an analytical framework of aggregate claims reserving models respectively.The paper collated and summarized the latest developments of multivariate stochastic claims reserving methods.Based on the aforementioned investigations,the proposed three levels of univariate stochastic claims reserving methods (i.e.distribution-free assumptions,distribution model assumptions,and various distribution assumptions within hierarchical structure) are to be extended to the studies of the two types of multivariate stochastic claims reserving methods in this paper.In the multivariate framework,by incorporating multivariate statistical analysis methods and dependent risk modeling methods (such as multivariate distribution models,copula functions,comonotonicity techniques) into these three levels,we investigated the mean estimates,mean square error of prediction,and simulated predictive distributions of claims reserves.The paper considered further to extend the dependencies as regards to claims inflation and accounting year effects,which were concerned increasingly in both univariate and multivariate framework.Finally,the latest exploration and application of these reserving methods in foreign solvency regulation were discussed.These exploratory studies will further expand the scope of the uncertainty risk measure of claims reserving,which are expected to have significant contributions in promoting the quantitative risk management techniques of actuarial science.
Key words:dependence structures;multivariate claims reserving;hierarchical models;Bayesian Methods;Copula Functions

 

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