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购买美国----巴菲特

(2008-10-29 08:05:19)
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股票

金融世界的是一个烂摊子,无论是在美国和海外。它的问题,而且已渗入一般经济,刚开始时的一点漏水现在已经变成了滔滔洪水。在短期内,失业率将上升,商业活动将会动摇,新闻将继续吓人。

    所以...我一直在购买美国股票。这是我个人的帐户我说的,我以前只是拥有美国政府债券。(这不包括我在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的资产,这些已经捐给慈善事业了。)如果股价继续有吸引力,我非伯克希尔净资产将很快百分之百放到美国股票。

    为什么?

    我购买遵循一个简单的规则:当别人贪婪的时候我要恐惧,当别人恐惧的时候我要贪婪。现在恐惧已经散布市场,甚至对老练的投资者。当然,投资者对于过度投机和企业的竞争力薄弱保持警惕是正确的。但是,就担心美国的许多健全的公司的长期繁荣毫无意义。这些企业的获利确实会受到影响,因为它们总是收到宏观经济的影响。但是,大多数大公司将在未来5年, 10年和20年内创造新的利润记录。

    让我澄清一点:我无法预测股票市场的短期变动。我没有一点点的想法,从现在开始,一个月-或一年后,股市是否将高于或低于现在。什么都是是有可能的。但是,市场会走高,也许很高,而且会在市场情绪和宏观经济经济变好之前。所以,如果你等待知更鸟,春天已经过了。

    一个小小的历史在这里:在大萧条时期,道琼斯指数在1932年7月8日创下41点低点,经济条件一直恶化,直到罗斯福富兰克林1933年3月就任。到那个时候,市场已经涨了百分之三十。再看第二次世界大战时,当情况在美国,欧洲和太平洋地区恶化,市场触底在1942年4月,比盟军的胜利早很多。同样,在1980年代初期,最佳购买购买股票时候是通货膨胀肆虐,经济萧条的时候。总之,坏消息是投资者最好的朋友。它可以让你用低价格买下一份美国的未来。

    从长远来看,股市是好的。在20世纪,美国经历了两次世界大战和其他创伤和昂贵的军事冲突,大萧条,无数次经济衰退和金融危机,石油危机,瘟疫,水门事件。然而,从道琼斯工业平均指数从66点上涨至11497点。

    你可能会认为在一个这么好的世纪里投资股票是不可能亏钱的。但是,一些投资者。不幸的当他们感到舒适的时候才买股票,而当新闻里全是坏消息的时候又恐慌卖掉。

    今天,有人持有现金感觉很舒服。他们不应该。他们选择了一种可怕的长期资产,一个几乎没有任何利润并且一定会贬值的资产。事实上,目前政府的救市政策肯定会加剧通货膨胀,因此加速现金帐户的贬值。

    股票在未来十年内几乎肯定会超过现金,而且可能很多。这些现在不买股票的投资者是在赌当市场好的时候他们能及时抓住它,所以想等待好消息。他们应该听听冰球明星韦恩各雷茨基的意见: “我向冰球会到的地方滑,不是冰球现在在的地方。 ”

    我不喜欢对股票市场发表意见,我再次强调,我不知道市场将在短期内怎样。以前我去过一个开在一个空的银行大楼里的餐厅,餐厅的广告是这样的: “把你的嘴放在你的钱在的地方。 ”今天我的钱和我的嘴都说股票。

    

Buy American. I Am.

 

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

 

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