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第39讲Exhaustion Gaps(衰竭缺口)

The breakout gap signalizes the start of a move; the runaway gap marks its rapid continuation at or near its halfway point; the exhaustion gap comes at the end. The first two of these are easily distinguished as two type by their location with respect to the preceding price pattern, but the last is not always immediately distinguishable from the second.

Exhaustion gaps, like runaway gaps, are associated with rapid extensive advances or declines. We have described the runaway type as the sort that occurs in the midst of a move that accelerates to high velocity, then slows down again and finally stops as increasing resistance overcomes its momentum. Sometimes however, "skyrocket" trends evidence no such gradual increase of resistance as they proceed, show no tendency to lose momentum, but: rather continue to speed up until, suddenly, they hit a stone wall of supply (or, in cases of a decline, demand) and are brought to an abrupt end by a day of terrific trading volume. In such moves, a wide gap may appear at the very end, i.e., between the next to the last and the last day of the move. This gets the name of exhaustion gap because the trend seems thereby to have exhausted itself in one final leaping spurt.

The best test of whether a gap formed in a rapid, straight-line advance or decline is of the continuation or exhaustion type comes on the day after the gap (more precisely, the day which makes the gap), although there are frequently other clues in the preceding chart picture. If trading activity mounts to an extraordinary height during the session following the gap, and particularly if the previous trend in prices does not appear to be carried along at a pace commensurate with that day's activity, the gap is probably of the exhaustion class. This interpretation is reinforced, in fact, made a virtual certainty, if the day after the gap develops into a Reversal Day (as described in Chapter X) with the closing price registered back near the edge of the gap.

Evidence which may be derived from the chart anteceding the gap may be enumerated as follows. If the trend has already carried out the full implications of the price formation or congestion area from which it emerged, exhaustion is more likely than continuation. By the same token, if the reasonable measuring implications of the pattern of origin are still far short of attainment, the gap is probably of the continuation type. An exhaustion gap is seldom the first gap in a runaway move; it is usually preceded by at least one continuation gap. Thus, you may ordinarily assume (unless the contrary appears from other and more weighty indications) that the first gap in a rapid advance or decline is a continuation gap. But each succeeding gap must be regarded with more and more suspicion, especially if it is wider than its predecessor.

We have referred to exhaustion gaps as wide gaps. Width is, of necessity, relative in this study; it is impossible to lay down any exact rules to define wide or narrow. Do not let this bother you too much. Recognition of what constitutes an unusually wide gap for the particular stock you have under observation soon comes with a little charting experience.

Runaway gaps are usually not covered for a considerable length of time, not, as a rule, until the market stages a swing of Major or full Intermediate proportions in the opposite direction. But exhaustion gaps are quickly closed, most often within two to five days, a fact which furnishes a final clue to distinguish exhaustion from continuation, if it should still be needed at that stage. (This, incidentally, upsets the common superstition that all gaps must be closed before the trend can be trusted to continue very far. In the case of the runaway gap, it is not closed, but the trend distance. In the case of the exhaustion gap, the closing of it actually contributes to the signal that the trend has run out.)

An exhaustion gap, taken by itself, should not be read as a sign of Major reversal, nor even, necessarily, of reversal at all. It calls "stop," but the halt is ordinarily followed by some sort of area pattern development which may, in turn, lead to either reversal or continuation of the move prior to the gap. However, in practically every case, enough of a minor reaction or delay ensues from the formation of an exhaustion gap, before a new trend is established, to warrant closing out commitments at once. (One can always reenter if it subsequently appears that the previous trend is to be resumed.)

antecede   vt. 先行(在....之前)

enumerate  v. 列举,计算,枚举

token      n. 表征，记号,代币

attainment  n. 达到,成就,造诣

ensue from    跟着发生，继起

upset   a. 烦乱的,不高兴  v. 颠覆,推翻,使心烦意乱,使不舒服

as a rule   通常,一般说来

furnish   v. 供给,提供,装设

suspicion  n. 猜疑,怀疑

by the same token   由于同样原因,同样地

commensurate [kə'menʃərit]  a. 同样大小的,相称的

spurt      vt. & n.喷出(突然的爆发,短时间)

terrific    a. 极好的,非常的,极度的

abrupt    a. 突然的,唐突的

velocity [vi' l ɔ s i t i]  n. 速度,速率