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The Dow Theory

(2008-12-25 10:15:59)
标签:

道氏理论

英文版

股票

The Dow Theory

1. The Averages Discount Everything (except "Acts of God”)

2. The Three Trends

3. The Primary Trend

4. The Secondary Trend

5. The Minor Trend

   Major Trend Phase

6. The Bull Market

7. The Bear Market

8. The Two Averages Must Confirm 

9."Volume Goes with the Trend"

10."Lines" May Substitute for Secondaries

11. Only Closing Prices Used

Dow Theory pays no attention to any extreme highs or lows which may be registered during a day and before the market closes, but takes into account only the closing figures, i.e., the average of the day's final sale prices for the component issues. We have discussed the psychological [ ,saikə'lɔdʒikəl ] . importance of the end-of-day prices under the subject of chart construction and need not deal with it further here, except to say that this is another Dow rule which has stood the test of time.

In recent years, differences of opinion have risen among market students as to the extent to which an average should push beyond a previous limit (top or bottom figure) in order to signal (or confirm or reaffirm, as the case may be) a market trend. Dow and Hamilton evidently regarded any penetration, even as little as 0.01; in closing price as a valid signal, but some modern commentators [ 'kɔmenteitə ] . have required penetration by a full point (1.00). We think that the original view has the best of the argument, that the record shows little or nothing in practical results to favor any of the proposed modifications.

12. A Trend Should Be Assumed to Continue in Effect Until Such Time as Its Reversal Has Been Definitely Signaled!

This Dow Theory tenet is one which, perhaps more than any other, has evoked criticism. Yet when correctly understood, it, like all the others we have enumerated [ i'nju:məreit ], stands up under practical test. What it states is really a probability. It is a warning against changing one's market position too soon, against "jumping the gun." It does not imply that one should delay action by one unnecessary minute once a signal of change in trend has appeared, but it expresses the experience that the odds are in favor of the man who waits until he is sure, and against the other fellow who buys (or sells) prematurely [ ,pri:mə'tjuəli ]. These odds cannot be stated in mathematical language such as two-to-one or three-to-one; as a matter of fact, they are constantly changing. Bull Markets do not climb forever and Bear Markets always reach a bottom sooner or later.

enumerate [ i'nju:məreit ] .v. 列举,计算,枚举

prematurely [ ,pri:mə'tjuəli ] ad. 过早地, 早熟地

psychological [ ,saikə'lɔdʒikəl ] a. 心理(学)的 takes into account 考虑

commentator [ 'kɔmenteitə ] n. 注释者(注释者,解说员,新闻广播员)

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