未来现金流折现计算(格力为例)
(2019-05-27 00:34:42)分类: 估值方法 |
假设A公司每年净利润为1亿元(现金流),按6%的折现率来算,毛估估后N年的内在价值:
年份 |
|
折现率 |
折现后 |
5%净利润增长 |
折现后 |
10%净利润增长 |
折现后 |
15%净利润增长 |
折现后 |
20%净利润增长 |
折现后 |
|
1 |
|
1 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.94 |
1.05 |
1.00 |
1.10 |
1.04 |
1.15 |
1.08 |
1.20 |
1.13 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.89 |
1.10 |
0.99 |
1.21 |
1.08 |
1.32 |
1.18 |
1.44 |
1.28 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.84 |
1.16 |
0.98 |
1.33 |
1.12 |
1.52 |
1.28 |
1.73 |
1.45 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.79 |
1.22 |
0.97 |
1.46 |
1.16 |
1.75 |
1.39 |
2.07 |
1.64 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.75 |
1.28 |
0.96 |
1.61 |
1.20 |
2.01 |
1.50 |
2.49 |
1.86 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.70 |
1.34 |
0.95 |
1.77 |
1.25 |
2.31 |
1.63 |
2.99 |
2.11 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.67 |
1.41 |
0.94 |
1.95 |
1.30 |
2.66 |
1.77 |
3.58 |
2.38 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.63 |
1.48 |
0.94 |
2.14 |
1.34 |
3.06 |
1.92 |
4.30 |
2.70 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.59 |
1.55 |
0.93 |
2.36 |
1.40 |
3.52 |
2.08 |
5.16 |
3.05 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.56 |
1.63 |
0.92 |
2.59 |
1.45 |
4.05 |
2.26 |
6.19 |
3.46 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.53 |
1.71 |
0.91 |
2.85 |
1.50 |
4.65 |
2.45 |
7.43 |
3.91 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.50 |
1.80 |
0.90 |
3.14 |
1.56 |
5.35 |
2.66 |
8.92 |
4.43 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.47 |
1.89 |
0.89 |
3.45 |
1.62 |
6.15 |
2.88 |
10.70 |
5.02 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.44 |
1.98 |
0.88 |
3.80 |
1.68 |
7.08 |
3.13 |
12.84 |
5.68 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.42 |
2.08 |
0.88 |
4.18 |
1.74 |
8.14 |
3.40 |
15.41 |
6.43 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.39 |
2.18 |
0.87 |
4.59 |
1.81 |
9.36 |
3.68 |
18.49 |
7.28 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.37 |
2.29 |
0.86 |
5.05 |
1.88 |
10.76 |
4.00 |
22.19 |
8.24 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.35 |
2.41 |
0.85 |
5.56 |
1.95 |
12.38 |
4.34 |
26.62 |
9.33 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.33 |
2.53 |
0.84 |
6.12 |
2.02 |
14.23 |
4.70 |
31.95 |
10.56 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.31 |
2.65 |
0.84 |
6.73 |
2.10 |
16.37 |
5.10 |
38.34 |
11.95 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.29 |
2.79 |
0.83 |
7.40 |
2.18 |
18.82 |
5.54 |
46.01 |
13.53 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.28 |
2.93 |
0.82 |
8.14 |
2.26 |
21.64 |
6.01 |
55.21 |
15.32 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.26 |
3.07 |
0.81 |
8.95 |
2.34 |
24.89 |
6.52 |
66.25 |
17.34 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.25 |
3.23 |
0.80 |
9.85 |
2.43 |
28.63 |
7.07 |
79.50 |
19.63 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.23 |
3.39 |
0.80 |
10.83 |
2.52 |
32.92 |
7.67 |
95.40 |
22.23 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.22 |
3.56 |
0.79 |
11.92 |
2.62 |
37.86 |
8.32 |
114.48 |
25.16 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.21 |
3.73 |
0.78 |
13.11 |
2.72 |
43.54 |
9.03 |
137.37 |
28.49 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.20 |
3.92 |
0.77 |
14.42 |
2.82 |
50.07 |
9.79 |
164.84 |
32.25 |
|
1 |
1.06 |
0.18 |
4.12 |
0.77 |
15.86 |
2.93 |
57.58 |
10.63 |
197.81 |
36.51 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10年内在价值 |
7.80169 |
|
9.67 |
|
11.88 |
|
14.83 |
|
18.61 |
||
20年内在价值 |
12.1581 |
|
18.47 |
|
29.09 |
|
48.33 |
|
82.94 |
||
30年内在价值 |
14.5907 |
|
26.48 |
|
54.01 |
|
124.00 |
|
305.35 |
年报 |
2013 |
2012 |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
2006 |
2005 |
2004 |
2003 |
格力电器 |
109 |
74.5 |
52.36 |
42.75 |
29.13 |
21.03 |
12.7 |
6.28 |
5.1 |
4.21 |
3.37 |
净利润增长率 |
46.3% |
42.3% |
22.5% |
46.8% |
38.5% |
65.6% |
102.2% |
23.1% |
21.1% |
24.9% |
|
复权后股价 |
1137 |
871 |
587 |
605 |
632 |
280 |
472 |
110 |
46.23 |
42.23 |
35.03 |