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印钞机的伟大之处!

(2019-02-21 21:33:35)
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杂谈

今天,香港投资界在南丫岛隆重欢迎中国不良资产处置行业的领袖,湖南永雄资产管理公司的创始人谭曼先生一行。

本人借机做简单发言,谈两个观点。一是国内经济虽然持续低迷6年,但是各级政府仍然顽强抵抗,坚决不卖国有资产。这说明,印钞机是个了不起的好东西。

二是全国信用卡的违约率仍然只有2%左右。真不简单!多亏大量的非银行金融机构的无私奉献。它们主动为银行挡枪,堪称蜡烛型和自残型企业。

我的英文讲稿如下。

Diaries of a distressed-asset manager.

(1) The Chinese government has lots of assets: banks, telecoms, insurance, utilities and real estate. But it is not selling any of these, even though many of these assets have been non-performing, and the state-sector debts are rising fast.

This tells me that the state sector’s cash flows are probably not too bad. It also means that an independent monetary policy is a wonderful thing: worst comes worst, China can always inflate its way out of the mess.

(2) Shadow banks are doing God’s work in shielding the banks from endless NPLs. There are many types of shadow banks (trust companies, leasing, guarantee firms, P2P, microcredit, factoring, etc). They are selfless and heroic, and they are the banks’ saviours. Evidence: Six years into an economic slump, the banks’ credit card delinquency ratio is only 2% or so. I know this because I work in the kitchen.

This ratio is twice as high as seen a decade ago. But it is still respectable. In contrast, the shadow banking sector’s consumer delinquency is easily 20%!

(3) Yes. Beijing is relaxing credit again. But it is not terribly worried about a continued slowdown of the economy. It shows that deleveraging (and delinquency) will remain a big thing for the next few years.




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