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张化桥在路透社撰文:坏银行,坏主意,
简介如下:
谁也没有先见之明。不过,现在回头看,13年前中国弄出的四大资产管理公司是个巨大的错误。
当年,银行虽然坏帐很严重,但是公众对银行的信心从来没有动摇,而且银行的流动性也很正常。1999-2001年贷款增速开始下降,信贷资金开始转不动,那本来是好事,它会迫使银行提高贷款标准,改善资金的使用效率。但是四大资产管理公司的出现以及后来大量的注资破坏了本来应该出现的改革。
这13年来的信贷失控,和高通胀都源于那次的强力注资。现在,中国的银行又有了很多坏帐。千万不要再搞"剥离"。中国的银行资本金太多(不是太少),放款能力太强,应该瘦身。应该停止配售新股,停止优先股,和可转债。应该大大提高派息,甚至实行大额的特殊派息。
Badbanks, bad idea,
ByJoe Zhang,
Atthe end of the 1990s, China’s banks faced a rising tide of bad debts, and Beijing came to the rescue. Financial insiders still see that move as necessary, wise and courageous. On the contrary, bailing out the banks was a bad idea. It would be a mistake to repeat the trick.
Then,as now, China’s lenders had lent too much. Between 1984 and 1997, their loans grew 24 percent per annum. It couldn’t continue forever. In 1998, as non-performing loans started to increase, the growth rate fell to 15 percent, and then 8 percent and 6 percent in the next two years. By that point, bad loans in the banking system were close to 30 percent of total lending.
IfBeijing had done nothing, this credit slowdown could have forced a loan contraction, or even a recession. That would have been a blessing in disguise: it would have ushered in much-needed improvement in the quality of credit allocation.
Sadly,the necessary adjustment never happened. China’s authorities instead set up four asset management companies - Cinda, Orient, Huarong and Great Wall - to take over the “toxic” loans, and between 1999 and 2005, they took out around 2 trillion yuan (roughly $300 billion at today’s exchange rate) of bad assets. They did this at 100 cents on the dollar, without forcing the banks to take a haircut.
Thishad two side-effects. First, it gave everyone false hope that the banks had suddenly become solid and that there
简介如下:
谁也没有先见之明。不过,现在回头看,13年前中国弄出的四大资产管理公司是个巨大的错误。
当年,银行虽然坏帐很严重,但是公众对银行的信心从来没有动摇,而且银行的流动性也很正常。1999-2001年贷款增速开始下降,信贷资金开始转不动,那本来是好事,它会迫使银行提高贷款标准,改善资金的使用效率。但是四大资产管理公司的出现以及后来大量的注资破坏了本来应该出现的改革。
这13年来的信贷失控,和高通胀都源于那次的强力注资。现在,中国的银行又有了很多坏帐。千万不要再搞"剥离"。中国的银行资本金太多(不是太少),放款能力太强,应该瘦身。应该停止配售新股,停止优先股,和可转债。应该大大提高派息,甚至实行大额的特殊派息。
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