加载中…程阳：美国最安全的十个州——事件相关性分析的典型范例
(2015-01-18 23:24:41)
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程阳：美国最安全的十个州
——事件相关性分析的典型范例
The 10 safest states in the nation, 2015
24/7 Wall St. By Thomas C. Frohlich and Alexander Kent
January 16, 2015 3:15 PM
The United States has experienced dramatic reductions in violent
crime over the last decade, a period during which the FBI has noted
the numbers are down almost 15 percent. The most recent annual
drop, 4.4 percent,
十多年来，全美的暴力犯罪急剧减少，按照美国联邦调查局的说法，降低了15%。而近年降低了4.4%，所有的数据都“令人震撼”！
And most of the safest states are getting even safer: The safest state of all, Vermont, experienced a drop in violent crime of more than 19 percent in just a single year — the biggest annual decline of any state. Only 115 violent crimes were reported per 100,000 people.
原本就相对安全的州，则越来越安全了，这其中最数佛蒙特州，仅仅这年暴力犯罪就降低了19%，目前仅仅是十万分之115，也就是说平均10万人仅有115犯罪。
Utah, on the other hand, was an anomaly. Although it's one of the safest states in the nation, its violent crime rate actually rose from 2012 to 2013 (the most recent year for which numbers are available).
犹他州，则比较另类，尽管也是最安全的州之一，但是就拿到手的数据来看，2013比2012是上升的。
Nationwide, 368 violent crimes were reported for every 100,000 people in 2013. Such crimes include murder, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery. In six of America’s 10 safest states, fewer than 200 violent crimes were reported per 100,000 residents.
全美范围内，2013年暴力犯罪率为十万分之368，所犯罪行包括谋杀、强奸、暴力袭击、抢劫等。作为比较，6个全美最安全的州，该数据仅仅十万分之200。
【中美犯罪对比数据】中国社科院发布的2010年《法治蓝皮书》显示，2009年中国犯罪数量打破了2000年以来一直保持的平稳态势，出现大幅增长。其中，暴力犯罪、财产犯罪等案件大量增加。2009年1到10月，中国刑事案件立案数和治安案件发现受理数大幅增长，刑事案件数增幅在10%以上，治安案件数增幅达20%左右，全年刑事立案数达到530万件、治安案件数达到990万件。（相当于1/88，即十万分之1140，2009年中国）
【中美犯罪统计迥异】中国百姓，一般是按治安管理处罚条例进行罚款或行政拘留处理，这不叫犯罪而叫违法，但是在美国大多数是暴力犯罪。中国很多地方公安机关为了减少表面上犯罪率，都进行少立案的原则，象很多轻微犯罪都要求当事人私了，或者从中调解，很少立案，而往往轻微犯罪在犯罪案件中比重是最多的。只要人们不报案就不会主动立案侦查，或者是报警了不进行笔录，不记入档案，除非问题严重的案件。这就造成计录在案的犯罪率比实际犯罪率小很多。中国农村不发达地方，很多人犯罪都是私了，很多都是庭外和解，不报警，就不能统计下来。中国人都有很多人不喜欢报警的习惯，跟美国人不一样，他们都是通过法律来解决，都有记录在案。这就造成了计录在案的犯罪率与实际犯罪率误差很大。
Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter were especially rare in the nation’s safest states. Half of the 10 states reported less than two such crimes per 100,000 people last year, and the murder rates in all of the safest states were below the national rate of 4.5 incidents per 100,000 people. Similarly, aggravated assault rates did not exceed the national rate of 229 incidents per 100,000 Americans in any of the safest states. In three states — Kentucky, Maine, and Vermont — fewer than 100 assaults were reported per 100,000 state residents last year.
Not only were residents of these states relatively sheltered from violence, but other sorts of crimes were also less common. For example, nine of the 10 safest states reported fewer property crimes than the national average, 2,730 per 100,000 residents. Motor vehicle crimes were especially uncommon, with fewer than 100 vehicle thefts reported per 100,000 state residents in five of the 10 states, compared with 221.3 such thefts per 100,000 people nationwide.
While explanations for the level of safety in a particular area are by no means concrete, socioeconomic indicators are powerful predictors of crime. Just as in large U.S. cities, income plays a major role at the state level in predicting crime levels. A typical household earned more than the national median household income of $52,250 in six of the 10 states last year.
Kentucky households were the exception among the safest states, with a median income of less than $44,000.
People living in the nation’s safest states were also far less likely than other Americans to live in poverty. The poverty rate in all but two of the 10 states was lower than the national rate of 15.8% last year. New Hampshire, the sixth safest state, led the nation with just 8.7% of residents living below the poverty line in 2013.
Educational attainment rates are yet another factor contributing to violent crime. Lower levels of education result in lower incomes later in life, which in turn can contribute to higher crime rates. Residents in the safest states tended to be more highly educated. More than 90% of adults in seven of the 10 states had completed at least high school last year, versus the national rate of 86.6%. And while less than 30% of Americans had attained at least a bachelor’s degree as of 2013, more than one-third of residents in four of the nation’s safest states had done so.
To identify the safest states in America, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed violent crime rates from the FBI’s recently released 2013 Uniform Crime Report. Property crime rates also came from the FBI’s report. The data were broken into eight types of crime. Violent crime comprised murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault; property crime was comprised of burglary, arson, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. In addition to crime data, we also reviewed median household income, poverty rates, and educational attainment rates from the 2013 Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
These are the safest states in America. 这十个最安全的州是——
10. Montana
蒙大拿州
十万人犯罪率
Violent crimes per 100,000:
人口
Population:
2013谋杀 Total
2013 murders:
贫困人口比例
Poverty rate:
成人高中以上学历比例
Percentage of adults with high school
diploma:
There were nearly 241 violent crimes reported per 100,000 residents in Montana in 2013, a third lower than the national rate. While the violent crime rate fell 5.1% nationwide between 2012 and 2013, it fell more than 13% in Montana. Low crime rates may be attributable to high levels of education. Nearly 93% of Montana residents had at least a high school diploma as of 2013, the third highest rate in the country. Despite the state’s relatively well-educated population, Montana struggled with poverty last year. The state’s poverty rate was 16.5% in 2013, one of only two of the safest states with a poverty rate above the national rate of 15.8%. This was likely due in part to the state’s large Native American population, which tends to be more impoverished.
9. Minnesota
明尼苏达州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
Minnesota households had a median income of $60,702 in 2013, more than $8,000 higher than the national benchmark. Additionally, state residents were quite educated, as 33.5% of adults aged 25 and older had obtained a bachelor’s degree as of 2013, well above the 29.6% of adults nationwide. The strong socioeconomic environment likely contributed to the low violent crime rate of only 223.2 incidents reported per 100,000 residents in 2013. Overall, the state’s violent crime rate fell 3.3% despite incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter increasing more than 14% between 2012 and 2013.
8. Utah
犹他州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
Only 12.7% of Utah residents lived below the poverty line in 2013, more than 3 percentage points below the national rate. As in several other relatively safe states, Utah had one of the smallest income gaps between rich and poor in the country — relatively few residents lived on less than $10,000 a year and more than $200,000 a year. Despite low poverty rates and a relatively balanced income distribution, Utah was one of only a handful of states where the violent crime rate rose between 2012 and 2013, driven largely by a 10.7% increase in reported robberies.
7. Idaho
爱达荷州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
The violent crime rate fell by more than 2% between 2012 and 2013 to roughly 205 per 100,000 residents, the seventh lowest rate in the country. While rape and aggravated assault rates were among the lowest in the country, these crimes accounted for the majority of the violent crimes reported. A typical household in Idaho earned $46,783 in 2013, below the national median household income of $52,250. After accounting for the state’s relatively low cost of living, however, Idaho residents’ low incomes may not be as low as they seem.
6. New Hampshire 新罕布什尔州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
Nearly 93% of New Hampshire residents aged 25 and older had at least a high school diploma in 2013, the second highest rate in the country. Additionally, more than 34% of adults had at least a bachelor’s degree, giving the state one of the best educated labor forces in the country. New Hampshire also had the lowest poverty rate in the country in 2013, at 8.7%. The state’s vibrant socioeconomic climate likely contributed to the fewer than 200 violent crimes reported per 100,000 residents in 2013, a more than 7% decline from the previous year.
5. Kentucky
肯塔基州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
Less than 85% of Kentucky adults had at least a high school diploma as of 2013, and 22.6% had completed at least a bachelor’s degree, both among the lowest rates nationwide. A typical family made just $43,399, also one of the lowest median incomes in the country. In addition, nearly 19% of state residents lived in poverty, more than 3 percentage points above the national rate. Unlike in many other states with similarly poor socioeconomic conditions, the conditions do not seem to exacerbate criminal activity. Kentucky had among the lowest crime rates last year, at fewer than 200 incidents per 100,000 people. The state’s violent crime rate also fell 11.6% in 2013 from the year before, the fourth largest reduction nationwide.
4. Wyoming
怀俄明州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
The violent crime rate in Wyoming dipped slightly between 2012 and 2013 to 197.7 incidents reported per 100,000 residents. This was despite murder and nonnegligent manslaughter and robbery rates each increasing by more than 20%. Still, a total of only 1,152 violent crimes were reported in Wyoming, fewer than in every state except Vermont. Wyoming’s income was among the most evenly distributed in the country, which may have contributed to the state’s low crime rates. A typical household earned $58,752 in 2013, among the higher incomes in the nation. Additionally, Wyoming adults are quite educated, with nearly 94% having received a high school diploma as of 2013, the highest proportion in the country.
3. Virginia
维吉尼亚州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
As in several other safe states, Virginia’s low violent crime rate can be partly attributed to financial stability among residents. A typical household earned $62,666 last year, the eighth highest such income in the country. The state also had among the lowest poverty rates, at 11.7% in 2013. By contrast, nearly 16% of Americans lived below the poverty line last year. In addition to a low violent crime rate, property crimes were also particularly uncommon in Virginia. For example, there were only 322 burglaries reported per 100,000 state residents, the second-lowest rate nationwide.
2. Maine
缅因州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
There were just 69 incidents per 100,000 residents of aggravated assault reported last year in Maine, the lowest rate reviewed. This was despite incidents increasing 12.9% in 2013 from 2012, the largest increase in the nation. In fact, incidents of aggravated assaults declined across the nation. Mainers, who are perhaps more dependent on their vehicles because they live in one of the nation’s most rural areas, are also fortunate to have one of the country’s lowest motor vehicle theft rates. There were fewer than 69 motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 residents reported last year, second only to Vermont.
1. Vermont
佛蒙特州
Violent
crimes per 100,000:
Population:
Total 2013
murders:
Poverty
rate:
Percentage of
adults with high school
diploma:
Vermont is the safest state in the country, with a violent crime rate of just 115 incidents per 100,000 residents. The state also led the nation in nominal terms, with a total of only 720 violent crimes reported in 2013. Violent crime in the state has also fallen dramatically. Vermont’s violent crime rate fell 19.2% in 2013 from 2012, the largest improvement in the country. As in other safe states, Vermont’s relatively well-educated population may have contributed to its low crime rates. Nearly 36% of adults had attained at least a bachelor’s degree as of last year, and 91.5% had completed at least high school, both among the highest rates nationwide.
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