On a roll

(China Daily)

Updated: 2008-03-03 07:23

股市行情势如破竹

 

Goodyear Tire & Co's stock climbed 14 percent in the past six weeks, while US Steel Corp gained 7 percent. Both shares rallied as their junk-rated bonds dropped.

固特异轮胎公司的股票在过去六周增长了14个点，而美国钢铁公司的增长了7个点，但是在他们股票升值的同时，它们的高收益债券有所下跌。

 

During the past decade, a retreat in high-yield debt has foreshadowed every decline of at least 10 percent in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. This time bonds may be wrong, and stocks may prove more prescient, signaling corporate profits can withstand $162 billion in banks' credit writedowns and a slowing economy.

过去十年，高收益债券的每一次萎缩都预示着标准普尔500指数至少10％的下跌。然而这一次，债券有可能错了，股票似乎更有先见之明，说明集团利润可以承担1620亿美元的银行资产减值以及经济增长缓慢的情况。

 

Shares of the 691 US companies with non-investment grade bond ratings have climbed 5.3 percent in the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 5.2 percent increase in the yield investors demand to own high-yield bonds rather than US Treasury notes, according to an index of 892 issuers compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.

据彭博资讯收集的数据分析，过去一个月美国691家公司的股票以及非投资等级债券评定等级提高了5.3％。相比之下，其收益增长了5.2％，说明投资者需求高收益债券而不是美国长期债券，该数据来自美林证券公司对892家公司的调查。

 

"The stock market is acting more rationally," says James Swanson, who helps oversee $200 billion as chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management. "It seems to be saying, 'As bad as things are, we're not in a recession."'

MFS投资管理公司首席投资策略师史旺森(James Swanson), 负责监管公司2000亿美金认为：“股票市场发展更加理性，可以这么说，情况已经如此糟糕了，但是我们还没有衰退。”

  

Goodyear and US Steel shares are advancing even after the prospect of the US economy slipping into a recession eroded bond investors' confidence that the least-creditworthy companies will repay their debts. The yield premium for junk bonds, which stands at 7.35 percentage points, has tripled since falling to an all-time low of 2.41 percentage points on June 5, according to index data from New York-based Merrill, the world's largest brokerage.

即使将来美国经济处于萧条情况下，债券投资者们不再坚信信誉不佳的公司将能支付它们的债务，固特异和美国钢铁公司的股票也将持续增长。高收益债券的收益现在是7.35％，这比全年六月份跌至史上最低点2.41％翻了三倍，这个世界上最大的证券公司美林公司纽约公司提供的数据。

 

Junk bonds carry ratings below BAA3 from Moody's Investors Service and BBB- from Standard & Poor's.

高收益债券的评定等级从穆迪投资者服务公司的BAA3到标准普尔公司的BBB.

 

High risk, low return?

高风险，低收益？

 

Lincoln Anderson, who oversees $271 billion as chief investment officer at LPL Financial Services in Boston, says the worst start to a year for junk bonds since 1990 isn't warranted.

波士顿LPL投资管理公司的首席投资专员林肯-安德森，监管2710亿美金，认为这是自1990年高收益债券失去担保之后最糟糕的开始了。

 

High-yield bonds in less than two months this year have lost 2.8 percent, including coupon payments, and trade at an average of 89.18 cents on the dollar, Merrill Lynch data show. During the nine-month long recession in 2001, junk bonds declined 2.4 percent. In 1990, they fell 4.4 percent.

美林公司数据表明，在今年不到2个月的时间里，高收益债券损失了大约2.8个百分点，其中包括息票支付，美元交易平均为89.18。2001年长达九个月的萧条时期，高收益债券下跌了2.4％，1990的下跌指数为4.4％。

 

While the market for junk bonds may be showing that a contraction is a foregone conclusion, Wall Street economists say otherwise. The economy may expand 1.8 percent this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That's more than the 1.6 percent growth rate in 2001 and compares with a contraction of 0.2 percent in 1990, according to Bloomberg data.

高收益债券的市场行情也许说明其将萎缩的最终结局，但是华尔街的经济学家却不这么认为。彭博资讯经济学家们调查发现今年的经济增长将为1.8％，这比2001年1.6％的增长率要高，而1990只萎缩了0.2％。

 

Lumped together

集中在一起？

 

"It's indiscriminate selling and not particularly thoughtful analysis of underlying company fundamentals in credit markets," said Anderson. "Bond investors are just lumping everybody in together, which is a big mistake."

“这是一种不加区别的销售，缺乏对信贷市场相关公司基本原则的的深刻分析。”安得森接着说，“债券投资者们只是把大家集合在一起，这是非常不对的。”

 

Credit-default swaps, or contracts used to hedge against the risk a company will be unable to repay its debts, indicate that 9 percent of junk-rated companies may default in the next 12 months, according to MFS's Swanson, a former high-yield bond specialist who has worked for the Boston-based company for 22 years. That's almost double the rate that Moody's expects in 2008.

史旺森曾经是MFS波士顿公司的高收益债券专家，在公司工作了22年，他认为，过去用来防止公司无法偿付债务的信用违约交换合约或者合同表明未来的12个月里将有9％的高收益债券公司可能违约，这比穆迪投资者服务公司预期的比率高出一倍。

 

Still, the first decline in home prices since the Great Depression and higher financing costs for companies and households may cause defaults to accelerate and stifle economic growth. More than one in five high-yield bonds are now considered distressed, meaning they yield at least 10 percentage points more than benchmark rates, Merrill said last week. That's about the same ratio as before the recession of 2000.

自美国经济大萧条以来的物价首次下跌，对公司以及家庭的巨额经济补贴将导致违约增加，抑制经济增长。美林公司上周说，现在五分之一多的高收益债券面临困境，这意味着它们比基准利率低了至少10多个百分点。2000年经济萧条之前的比率也差不多在这个水平上。

 

"The high-yield bond market is correctly focused on the stresses in the financial system," says Margaret Patel, fund manager at Evergreen Investment Management Co in Boston, which oversees $274 billion. "I don't think we're seeing any indication of more optimism."

波士顿的长青投资管理公司基金经理柏文姬(Margaret Patel)监管2740亿美金，他认为：“高收益债券市场将重点放在金融体制的压力上是恰当的，我认为我们没有看到任何更乐观的的前景。”

 

The stock market tells a different story.

股市却是另一番新气象。

 

 

A good year

形式大好的一年

 

After Goodyear, the largest US tiremaker, this month posted a better-than-forecast fourth-quarter profit of $52 million, shares of the Akron, Ohio-based company jumped the most since Oct. 30, when it last announced results.

继美国最大的轮胎公司固特异公本月宣布其比预期要好的第四季度利润为5200万美金之后，俄亥俄州的阿克伦股票自去年10月30号公布结果以来增长最快。

 

Goodyear has beaten analysts' profit estimates for three straight quarters. At the same time, the spread on its bond yield to Treasuries has risen more than 80 percent in the past year. In the past six weeks, the yield premium on Goodyear's 9 percent notes due in 2015 has widened by 33 basis points to 488 basis points. They are rated Ba3 at Moody's, three steps below investment grade. S&P ranks them at B, two rungs lower.

固特异已经连续三季度突破分析家们的预期利润，同时去年政府债券的收益增长了80％多。上六周，固特异9％的2015年到期的票据的收益值的基准点提高了33个，增长到488，在穆迪公司它们排在BA3位，离投资等级差三级，而在标准普尔指数中排在B级，要低两级。

 

US Steel, the second-largest US-based steelmaker by market value, has gained 5.8 percent since the company reported an 88 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit.

美国钢铁届市场价值第二大亨，美国钢铁公司自第四季度报告下跌88％以来增长了5.8％。

 

Consensus estimates indicate the Pittsburgh-based company's earnings per share will rise 49 percent in 2008, after falling 34 percent last year. Still, the yield premium on its $450 million 6.05 percent notes due in 2017 widened 125 basis points to 353 basis points since the first week of January, trading at 92.52 cents to the dollar. The debt is rated BB+ at S&P.

市场平均预估表明2008年这个匹兹堡的公司每股股票的收益将增加49％，但是去年它们的股票下跌了39％。即使这样，自今年一月份一周开始，该公司6.05％de2017年到期的价值4.5亿美金的票据以92.52美分的价格出售，增加了125个基本点，达到353点，该项债权在标准普尔指数中排位BB+.

 

"The stock market is correctly smelling out most of these cases, that these companies aren't going to default," says Swanson. "It's just the bond market working where so many people need to sell at once that it's driving the prices crazy low. It's irrational from a fundamental point of view."

“股票市场已经正确地察觉到这些情况，这些公司也将不会违约”史旺森接着说，“只有债权市场在起作用，在债券市场上，人们必须立刻出售债券，这样就把价格逼得极其低。从根本上说，这是很疯狂的。”

 

(China Daily 03/03/2008 page11）