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所有的市场我-市场趋势

(2009-03-31 15:19:00)
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杂谈

所有的市场我-市场趋势

Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 星期二, 2009年2月10号

A Market trend is the direction in which a financial market is moving.阿市场趋势的方向是在金融市场的动向。 Market trends can be classified as primary trends, secondary trends (short-term), and secular trends (long-term).市场趋势可分为初级趋势,次要趋势(短期) ,以及长期趋势(长期) 。 This principle incorporates the idea that market cycles occur with regularity and persistence.这一原则包含了想法,市场周期发生规律性和持久性。 Thisbelief is considered to be generally consistent with the practice oftechnical analysis and broadly inconsistent with the standard academicview of financial markets, the efficient market hypothesis.这种信念被认为是基本一致的做法,技术分析和广泛的不符合标准的学术观点的金融市场,有效市场假说。 Anotheracademic viewpoint is that market prices follow a random walk model andthat any apparent past ‘trends’ are purely an accumulation of randomvariations and do not serve as a predictor for future performance.另一种学术观点是,市场价格遵循随机游走模型,并没有任何明显的过去'趋势'纯粹是一个积累的随机变化和不作为预测未来的表现。 Randomwalk theory suggests that it is therefore not possible to outperformthe general market using traditional evaluations of its “fundamentals”or by using technical analysis.随机漫步理论认为,因此,不可能超出市场一般采用传统的评价,其“基本面”或使用的技术分析。

However,the assumption that market prices move in trends is one of the majorcomponents of technical analysis, and consideration of market trends iscommon to most Wall Street investors.但是,前提是市场价格的趋势是向前的一个重要组成部分的技术分析,并考虑市场的趋势是最常见的华尔街投资者。 Market trends are described as sustained movements in market prices over a period of time.市场发展趋势被称为持续变动的市场价格在一段时间内。 Theterms bull market and bear market describe upward and downwardmovements respectively and can be used to describe either the market asa whole or specific sectors and securities (stocks).牛市的条件和熊市描述向上和向下运动,分别可以用来描述或者市场作为一个整体或具体部门和证券(股票) 。 Theexpressions “bullish” and “bearish” can also mean optimistic andpessimistic respectively (”bullish on technology stocks,” or “bearishon gold”, etc).表示“乐观”和“利空”也意味着乐观和悲观的分别为( “看好科技股, ”或“看跌黄金”等) 。

Primary market trends主要市场趋势
A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market or market sector and lasts for a year or more.的一个主要趋势,拥有广泛的支持,在整个市场或市场部门,并持续一年或更长时间。

Bull market牛市
Abull market tends to be associated with increasing investor confidence,motivating investors to buy in anticipation of future price increasesand future capital gains.牛市往往是与增加投资者的信心,激励投资者买入预期未来价格上涨和未来的资本收益。 Indescribing financial market behavior, the largest group of marketparticipants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd.在描述金融市场的行为,最大的群体的市场参与者通常称为,比喻,作为一个群体。 This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals.这是特别重要的参与者牛市以来多头放牧动物。 A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run.牛市有时也被称为牛市。 Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.道氏理论试图描述的特征,这些市场波动。

India’sBSE Index SENSEX was in a bull run for almost five years from April2003 to January 2008 as it increased from 2,900 points to 21,000 points.印度的疯牛病指数指标是在牛市近五年,从2003年4月至2008年1月,因为它增加了从2900点至21000点。 Another notable and recent bull market was in the 1990s when the US and many other global financial markets rose rapidly.另一个值得注意的和最近的牛市是在上世纪90年代,美国和许多其他全球金融市场的迅速增长。

Bear market熊市
A bear market is a steady drop in the stock market over a period of time.熊市是稳步下降,股市经过一段时间的。 It is described as being accompanied by widespread pessimism.它被描述为伴之以普遍的悲观情绪。 Investorsanticipating further losses are often motivated to sell, with negativesentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle.投资者期待进一步的损失往往是出于出售,与负面情绪喂养自己的恶性循环。 Themost famous bear market in history was preceded by the Wall StreetCrash of 1929 and lasted from 1930 to 1932, marking the start of theGreat Depression.最有名的大熊市的历史之前,华尔街崩溃1929年,历时30年至32年,标志着开始的大萧条。 Amilder, low-level, long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to1982, encompassing the stagflation of US economy, the 1970s energycrisis, and the high unemployment of the early 1980s.温和,低层次的,长期的熊市发生在约1973年至1982年,包括美国经济滞胀, 70年代的能源危机,以及高失业率的20世纪80年代初。

Prices fluctuate constantly on the open market.价格波动不断在公开市场上。 Totake the example of a bear stock market, it is not a simple decline,but a substantial drop in the prices of the majority of stocks over adefined period of time.采取例子熊市股票市场,它不是一项简单的下降,但大幅度下降的价格,大多数股票在规定期限内。 Accordingto The Vanguard Group, “While there’s no agreed-upon definition of abear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20%or more over at least a two-month period.”根据Vanguard Group的, “虽然没有商定的定义的熊市,人们普遍接受的措施是价格下降了20 %或以上,至少两个月内。 ”

Market bottom市场底部
A stock market bottom is a trend reversal - the end of a market downturn and the beginning of an upward moving trend. A股市场底部是一种趋势逆转-结束了市场低迷的开始向上移动的趋势。 “Bottom” is more than just a recent low in a stock market index, but a reversal of the primary trend. “底”不仅仅是一个近期低点的股市指数,但扭转的主要趋势。 A“bottom” may occur because of the presence of a “cycle,” or because of“panic selling” as a reaction to an adverse financial development. “自下而上” ,可能会发生,因为存在一个“循环” ,或因为“恐慌性抛售”的一种反应产生不利的金融发展。

It is very difficult to identify a bottom (referred to by investors as “bottom picking”) while it is occurring.这是非常难以确定自下而上(所提到的投资者“自下而上采摘” ) ,而它正在发生。 The upturn following a decline is often shortlived and prices might resume their decline.复苏后下降往往是昙花一现,价格可能恢复下降。 This would bring a loss for the investor who purchased stock(s) during a misperceived or “fake” market bottom.这将带来的损失,投资者购买股票谁(县)在误解或“假”的市场底部。

Some of the more notable market bottoms, in terms of the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) include:一些比较显着的市场底部,在闭幕价值观的道琼斯工业平均指数(道指)包括:

* Black Monday: The DJIA hit a bottom at 1738.74 on 10/19/1987, as a result of the decline from 2722.41 on 8/25/1987 (Chart. *黑色星期一:道指触底1738.74关于在1987年10月19号,由于减少2722.41关于1987年8月25日( Chart.
*The bursting of the Dot-com bubble: A bottom of 7286.27 was reached onthe DJIA on 10/9/2002 as a result of the decline from 11722.98 on1/14/2000. *爆破,互联网泡沫:一个底部7286.27达成了道指在2002年10月9号所造成的下降,从11722.98关于2000年1月14号。 This included an intermediate bottom of 8235.81 on 9/21/2001 which led to an intermediate top of 10635.25 on 3/19/2002 (Chart).这包括中间底部8235.81关于2001年9月21日,导致中间顶部10635.25对2002年3月19号(见图) 。

*A decline associated with the Subprime mortgage crisis starting at14164.41 on 10/9/2007 (DJIA) and caused a short term bottom of 11740.15on 3/10/2008. *下跌与次优抵押贷款危机开始14164.41关于2007年10月9号(道指) ,造成短期底部11740.15对08年3月10日。 After a rallying to a temporary top on 5/2/2008 at 13058.20 the primary trend of the declining, “bear” market, resumed.经过凝聚到一个临时最高的2008年5月2日在13058.20主要趋势的下降, “熊”的市场,恢复。 (Chart). (图表) 。

BaronRothschild is said to have advised that the best time to buy is whenthere is “blood in the streets”, ie when the markets have fallendrastically and investor sentiment is extremely negative罗斯柴尔德男爵据说建议,最好的时间是购买时, “血街头” ,即当市场急剧下降和投资者的信心是极为不利的

Secondary market trends二级市场发展趋势
Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction against a primary trend.次要趋势是短期的变化对价格方向的一个主要趋势。 They usually last between a few weeks and a few months.他们通常持续几个星期之间,并在几个月。 Whethera trend is a secondary trend, or the beginning of a primary trend, canonly be known once it has either ended or has exceeded the extent of asecondary trend.无论是一个趋势是次要的趋势,或进入了一个主要的趋势,只能被称为一旦要么结束或已经超过了中等程度的趋势。

A decline in prices during a primary trend bull market is called a market correction.在价格下降的一个主要趋势,在牛市被称为盘整。 A correction is usually a decline of 10% to 20%, but some experts say it can be a third or more.更正通常是下降了10 %至20 % ,但一些专家说,它可以是一个三分之一或更多。 It differs from a bear market mostly in that it has a smaller magnitude and duration.它不同于熊市主要是因为它有一个较小的规模和持续时间。

An increase in prices during a primary trend bear market is called a bear market rally.价格上升的一个主要趋势,在熊市被称为熊市反弹。 A bear market rally is sometimes defined as an increase of 10% to 20%.熊市反弹是有时被界定为增加了10 %至20 % 。 Bear market rallies typically begin suddenly and are often short-lived.熊市反弹通常会开始突然,而且往往是短暂的。 Notablebear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, andthroughout the late 1960s and early 1970s.值得注意的熊市集会发生在道琼斯指数在1929年股市崩盘,以领先市场的底部在1932年,在整个20世纪60年代末和70年代初。 TheJapanese Nikkei stock average has been typified by a number of bearmarket rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overalllong-term downward trend.日本日经股票平均价格已经由一些典型的熊市反弹自80年代末,而经历一个整体的长期下降的趋势。

Secular market trends世俗化的市场趋势
Asecular market trend is a long-term trend that usually lasts 5 to 25years (but whose distribution is more or less bell shaped around 17years, in the stock market), and consists of sequential ‘primary’trends.世俗的市场趋势是一个长期的趋势,通常为5至25年(但其分布是或多或少钟形约17年来,在股票市场) ,由连续的小学'的趋势。 Ina secular bull market the ‘primary’ bear markets have in the pastalmost always been shorter and less punishing than the ‘primary’ bullmarkets were rewarding.在一个世俗牛市的'主要'熊市在过去几乎总是短,不到惩罚比'主要'牛市的奖励。 Eachbear market has rarely (if ever) wiped out the real (inflationadjusted) gains of the previous bull markets, and the succeeding bullmarkets have usually made up for the real losses of any previous bearmarkets.每个熊市很少(如果有的话)消灭真正的(通胀调整)涨幅前牛市,并成功牛市通常弥补实际损失以往任何熊市。 This is one of the reasons why a secular market trend may be said to encompass the primary trends within it.这是原因之一世俗市场趋势可以说,包括它的主要趋势。 TheUnited States was described as being in a secular bull market fromabout 1983 to late 2007, with brief upsets including the crash of 1987and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.美国被描述为在一个世俗的多头市场从1983年到2007年年底,短暂打乱包括坠毁的1987年网络泡沫破灭的2000年至2002年。

Ina secular bear market, the ‘primary’ bull markets are sometimes shorterthan the ‘primary’ bear markets and rarely compensate for the reallosses of the ‘primary’ bear markets occurring during this extendedcycle.在一个世俗的熊市,在'小学'牛市有时短于'小学'熊市,很少补偿实际损失的'主要'熊市期间发生这种延长周期。 For example, in the 1966–82 secular bear market in stocks, there was hardly any nominal loss.例如,在1966至82年长期熊市的股票,但几乎没有任何名义损失。 But in real terms the loss was devastating.但在实质的损失是毁灭性的。 (Inthe past most ‘housing recessions’ were of a slow nature, therebyallowing inflation to keep housing prices steady.) Another example of asecular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January1980 to June 1999. (在过去的大多数住房衰退'是一个缓慢的性质,从而使通货膨胀率保持住房价格稳定。 )的另一个例子是一个世俗的熊市被视为黄金期间1980年1月至1999年6月。 Duringthis period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g)to a low of $253/oz ($9/g), and became part of the Great CommoditiesDepression.在此期间,黄金价格下跌的名义从美元的高点850/oz ( 30美元/ g )为美元的低点253/oz ( 900 /克) ,并成为部分商品的大萧条。 The S&P 500 experienced a secular bull market over a similar time period (~1982–2000).标准普尔500指数经历了一个世俗的牛市超过了类似的时间内( ? 1982年至2000年) 。

Market events市场活动
Anexaggerated bear market, that tends to be associated with fallinginvestor confidence and panic selling, can lead to a market crashassociated with a recession.夸张的熊市,这往往是与投资者的信心下降,并出现恐慌性抛售,可能导致市”览O喙氐木盟ネ恕 Anexaggerated bull market, on the other hand, fueled by overconfidenceand/or speculation can lead to a market bubble — characterized by anextreme inflation of the price/earnings P/E ratios of the stocks inthat market.夸张牛市,另一方面,由于过度自信和/或猜测可能导致市场泡沫-其特点是通货膨胀率的一种极端的价格/收益P /电子比率的股票在这个市场上。

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