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边疆梦幻面试19 -边疆梦幻教授访谈迈克尔斯彭斯,诺贝尔和平奖得主

(2009-03-27 14:23:00)
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边疆梦幻面试19 -边疆梦幻教授访谈迈克尔斯彭斯,诺贝尔和平奖得主

Friday, August 1st, 2008 星期五, 2008年8月1日

Frontier Journal (FJ): Thanks for joining me.边疆日报(福建) :感谢您加入我。 Frontier Journal is interviewing Professor Michael Spence at Stanford University.前沿杂志是面试教授迈克尔斯宾塞在斯坦福大学。 Prof.Spence is a year 2001 Nobel Prize co-winner in Economics for his jointcontribution in discovering the Asymmetric Structure of Marketing.教授斯彭斯是2001年诺贝尔和平奖共同得主在经济学的贡献,他发现联合不对称结构的营销。 Professor Spencer, my very first question would be, your Ph.D.斯宾塞教授,我的第一个问题是,您的博士 dissertation at Harvard led to your Nobel Prize Award.论文在哈佛大学导致您的诺贝尔奖颁奖。 Could you provide us some historical context about that in brief?你能不能向我们提供一些历史背景有关,在简短的?

Prof. A. Michael Spence (PS): I would be delighted to try.教授迈克尔斯彭斯(聚苯乙烯) :我将高兴地尝试。

When I was a graduate student, I got interested in a variety of questions that had to do with what happened to market.当我还是一个研究生,我感兴趣的各种问题,必须与市场发生的事情。 Many markets.许多市场。 Financialmarket, job markets and so on, in which the traditional assumptions ineconomics is that people are fully informed, when that is not true.金融市场,就业市场等,其中传统经济学中的假设是,人是完全知情的,当事实并非如此。 andI was a participant in a faculty seminar that was being held at theKennedy School in which these subjects were much discussed.我参加了教师研讨会,被关押在肯尼迪学院这些受试者许多讨论。

Andso I thought, well, markets usually respond to this in some way and theanalyses that were available up to date at that point, including GeorgeAkerlof path breaking basically markets of information gaps “whathappens in the market?” And so I said, I would try to figure out insome sense what would a market do about it and that is where the ideas’signaling came from.所以我想,好吧,市场通常会回复此以某种方式和分析,提供了最新的在这一点上,包括乔治•阿克洛夫路径基本上打破市场的信息差距“ ,会发生什么市场? ”所以,我说,我将努力找出在某种意义上会怎样做一个市场,并在这方面,思想'信号来自。

Activityon the supply side of the market or the better informed side of themarket that is designed to credibly convey information to the otherside of the market.活动的供应方的市场份额,或更好地了解双方的市场,目的是传达信息,以令人信服的另一边的市场份额。

FJ: Okay.福建:好。 I see.我明白了。 Now,in terms of competitive framework, we have both competitive strategyand competitive advantages, those kind of things will lead out.现在,在竞争力方面的框架内,我们都竞争战略和竞争优势,这种事情,将导致的。 Yes.是。 Now for markets, are there any theoretical framework about market structure?现在的市场,是否有任何有关市场的理论框架结构?

MS: Are there any theoretical frameworks of the market structure?问:是否有任何理论框架的市场结构?

FJ: Yes.福建:是的。 Market structure.市场结构。 Analysis or …yes.分析或...是的。

MS: Well sure, I mean if you look at the history, the economics in the last 50 years…舒马赫:嗯肯定的是,我的意思是如果你看一下历史,经济在过去50年...

Inthe field of, call it industrial organization, you have the work of JoeBain, which identified some of the important dimensions of marketstructure such as entry barriers, concentration on the seller side, andso on.在外地的,称之为产业组织,你的工作,乔贝恩,确定的一些重要方面,市场结构,如市场准入的障碍,集中在卖方方面,等等。 AndI think one way to describe the last 50 years of development is we haveenriched the economics profession generally has enriched our sense ofwhat relevant market structure is and learned how to integrate it intothe analysis of markets.我想一个办法来描述过去50年来的发展是我们有丰富的经济界人士普遍,丰富了我们的感觉是什么相关的市场结构,并学会了如何将其纳入分析市场。 So,for example, informational asymmetries is an example of marketstructure that we now know something about how to think about.因此,例如,信息不对称是一个例子,市场结构,我们现在知道一些有关如何思考。 By the way, I mean competitive strategy it develops in the task breaking work by Mike Porter顺便说一句,我的意思是有竞争力的战略发展,在开拓性工作的任务由Mike波特

Insome ways is in part the application of the economics of marketstructure to competitive decision making in a market context by a firm,so they are a very closely related field.在某些方面,部分是应用经济学的市场结构,竞争性的决策在市场方面的坚定的,所以他们是一个非常密切相关的领域。

FJ: Ok, I see.福建:好吧,我明白了。 Now,in older economy, fairer markets enjoy unfair advantage over buyers byexploiting the asymmetric nature of market structure as you and yourco-worker laid out.现在,在旧的经济,公平的市场上享有不公平的优势,利用买方的不对称性的市场结构为您和您的同事规定。 Nowstructure becomes more and more symmetrical which is quite transparent,how shall a vendor retain or enhance their compatibility other thantraditional competitive strategies such as overall cost to leadership,focus and differentiation.现在的结构变得越来越对称这是相当透明的,应如何保留或供应商提高其相容性以外的其他传统竞争性战略,如总成本的领导下,集中和分化。

MS:Well I think the last thing you mentioned is absolutely critical, Imean, obviously it is nice if you have natural entry barriers in theform of economies of scale and scope ___ in the modern world, sellersmaintain their ability to command an above normal or positive capitalrate o return by successfully innovating, so it is a dynamic equivalentof what I think is the typical path to above competitive returns otherthan - I mean the other one, is the one you obviously mentioned whichis continuous cost reduction as well.舒马赫:那么我想你提到的最后一件事情是绝对关键的,我的意思,显然是不错,如果您有天然进入壁垒的形式的规模经济和范围___在现代世界,卖家保持其指挥能力高于正常的或积极的资本回报率ö的成功创新,所以它是一个动态相当于我认为是典型的路径上述以外的其他有竞争力的回报-我指的是另外一个,就是你提到的这显然是持续降低成本作为好。

FJ: Oh I see.福建:噢喔。 Okay, okay.好吧,好吧。 Sofor the same market, in whether it is an emerging market, before theearly market or well-established market, mainstream market; if a vendorfrom a vendor’s point of view, we may have three views or perspectives,namely vendor vs buyer, vendor vs supplier and vendor vs competitor.因此,在同一市场,无论是一个新兴的市场,在早期的市场或成熟的市场,主流市场;如果一个供应商从供应商的角度来看,我们可以有三种意见或观点,即供应商与买方,供应商与供应商和供应商与竞争对手。 Nowfrom the vendor’s point of view, how shall we improve target marketefficiency to enjoy overall cost leadership when we are dealing withbuyers, with suppliers and (competitors) in general.现在,从供应商的角度来看,应如何改进我们的目标市场效率享受总成本领先时,我们正在处理的买家,与供应商和(竞争对手)的一般。

MS: In general, yes and including a developing market.舒马赫:一般来说,是和包括发展中国家市场。 Thebiggest change or the biggest source of efficiency gain in the past 10to 15 years has been the application of information technology tosupply change, in demand change, integrating with systems on which theinteractions with buyers and sellers occur, you know, so if you take acompany that has vendors, you know, meaning its supply chain, andbuyers, which is what we call the demand change, but I think thebiggest cost gains have come from both domestically and a global basisfrom using information technology to integrate these people into thesame system.最大的变化还是最大的效率收益在过去的10年至15年一直是信息技术的应用以供应的变化,需求变化,结合系统的相互作用与买家和卖家出现,你知道,所以,如果你需要的公司,供应商,你知道,这意味着它的供应链,和买家,这是我们所说的需求变化,但我认为最大的成本收益来自国内和全球的基础上利用信息技术整合这些人纳入同一系统。

FJ: Okay, I see.福建:好,我明白了。 Now, talking about signaling models, you and your co-worker for many years about signal model in market structure analysis.现在,谈论信号模式,您和您的同事多年来关于信号模型在市场结构的分析。 Sinceyou got, market signal identification mechanisms, probably by anotherresearch, and now, how do we maximize signal to noise ratio in a givenmarket with supposedly you got all market signals identified.既然你有,市场信号识别机制,可能由另一研究,现在,我们如何最大限度地提高信噪比在某一市场理应你所有的市场信号确定。 How do we maximize signal to noise ratio in general of course?我们如何最大限度地提高信噪比一般的课程?

MS: Well this slightly difficult.问:那么这个略有困难。 Signal to noise ratios come from the field called signal process and that, if you like, is a quite a technical concept.信号信噪比来自外地所谓信号的进程,如果你愿意的话,是一个相当的技术概念。 Now,in a market situation, the analog of that, I mean what drives signalingmodels is that on average, people with higher quality products havelower cost in sending the signal.现在,在市场情况下,模拟的是,我的意思是什么驱动器信号模式是,平均而言,人与更高质量的产品都在较低的成本发出了信号。 That is what makes it work.这使得它的工作。

Butif everybody had the same cost of sending the supposed signal all sendit, and it would not differentiate anything from anything else.但是,如果每个人都具有同样的成本派遣假定所有传送信号,并不会区分什么别的了。 So, you get noise in a market signaling system if there are some people with lower quality products who also have lower cost.所以,你在市场噪声信号系统,如果有一些人低质量的产品谁也降低了成本。 Andthat makes the signal noisy, meaning, you see the signal that you wouldnormally expect from a high quality seller, then there is some chancethat it is actually a low-quality seller.这使得信号噪声,也就是说,你看到的信号,你通常会期望从高品质的物品,然后有一些机会,它实际上是一个低质量的卖方。 Sothat would be the analog in economics in signaling models of the sortof technical signals, the noise ratios that is used in the analysis ofthe transmission of fiberoptic signals for example.因此,这将是经济学中的模拟信号模型的排序技术信号,信噪比,用于分析的光纤传输信号的例子。

FJ: Yes, but how about the searching cost.福建:是的,但如何对搜索成本。 Forexample if a traveler, I might call my travel agency to book a two-wayticket, and also I may go online, you know, go to the airlines, UnitedAirlines, I will book by myself, or I can go to Travelocity to do it orPriceline, or those kinds of things.例如,如果旅行者,我也许会叫我旅行社预订了单程票,还我可以上网,你知道,到航空,联合航空,我将自己的图书,或者我可以去旅游这样做或使用Priceline ,或种的东西。 How do you minimize those searching costs when we are dealing with modern market structures in the new economy?你如何尽量减少这些费用时,寻找我们所处理的现代市场结构中的新经济?

MS: Well, in some sense, the Internet lowers the search cost.舒马赫:嗯,从某种意义上说,互联网降低了搜寻成本。 But it gives you the appearance that it increased them, because you are going to multiple sources.但是,它给你的外观,它增加了他们,因为你要多种来源。 Thesimple truth is, that the reason we did not go to multiple sourcesbefore was because it was too expensive and so nobody actually did it.道理很简单,即我们没有理由去之前是多种来源,因为它过于昂贵,所以没有人真正做到了。 Theyjust phoned their travel agent, and then a little bit later they mightphone the airline and spend a lot of time waiting on hold.他们只是打电话给他们的旅行社,然后一点点的电话后,他们可能的航空公司和花费了大量的时间等待搁置。 Andso what has really happened is that the transaction costs have declinedand as a result of the decline, we go to more sites or sources to getprice and other information, and I think that is probably the right wayto think about what is going on.所以发生了什么是真正的交易成本下降和由于下降,我们去更多的网站或来源获得的价格和其他信息,我想这可能是正确的方式思考是怎么回事对。 It gives you the illusion that you spend more time searching…它给你的错觉,你花费更多的时间寻找...

FJ: Illusion, yes.福建:错觉,是的。

MS: In fact maybe we do, but that is because the cost of doing it has gone down.舒马赫:事实上,也许我们这样做,但是这是因为这样做成本已下降。

FJ: Yes, yes.福建:是啊,是啊。 So, Frontier Journal is interviewing with Professor Spence, Nobel Prize winner in year 2001 on Economics.因此,前沿杂志是面试教授斯彭斯,诺贝尔文学奖得主在2001年的经济学。 ProfessorSpence, nowadays we have heard a lot of buzzwords like innovation, bycreating emerging markets or long tail theory like personalization.教授斯彭斯,现在我们已经听到了很多流行语喜欢创新,通过建立新兴市场或长尾巴理论一样的个性化。 I would like to ask a curious question, you know, maybe it is very general.我想请问一个奇怪的问题,你知道,也许这是非常一般。 What is the correlation among free conceptual framework competitive strategy, market structure and innovation?什么是相关的概念框架中自由竞争策略,市场结构和创新? Right now, all people are talking about innovation, markets and competitiveness.现在,所有的人们都在谈论创新,市场和竞争力。 Are there any underlying correlation or relationship among those three.是否有任何潜在的相关性或三者之间的关系。

MS: Yes, there are.舒马赫:是的,有。 I mean, market structure effect for example.我的意思是,市场结构的影响的例子。 Market structure is traditionally measured by the concentration, if you like, the number of firms.市场结构是传统的浓度来衡量的,如果你愿意的话,企业的数量。 Thetraditional analysis which still has some merit, is that research anddevelopment is a fixed cost and so its cost measured in units sold islower, the larger your market share.传统的分析,仍然有一些优点,是研究和发展是一个固定费用,因此其成本衡量辆低,较大的市场份额。 So,there is a tendency for highly fragmented markets to find it moredifficult to finance or to justify the investment in research anddevelopment and innovation.所以,有一种倾向,高度分散的市场,更难以找到资金或理由投资于研究和发展与创新。 Now, there are ways around that.现在,有办法解决这个问题。 InSilicon Valley where I live, we do it by having little start ups thatare financed by venture capital, but that is only part of theinnovation process.在硅谷,我还活着,我们这样做的有没有创业的风险资本资助的,但只是部分的创新过程。 So the answer is, these things are connected to each other.因此,答案是,这些东西连接到对方。 Iwould say, it is very difficult to prove this, but an increasingfraction of the competitive interaction in the global economy is drivenby innovation, by dynamic product differentiation, probably more thanbefore.我要说,它是非常困难的证明了这一点,但越来越小部分的竞争相互作用对全球经济的动力是创新,用动态的产品差异,可能比以往更。 meaning…含义...

FJ: You have been working on information economics for many years.福建:您一直在信息经济学许多年。 Now whether in old economy or in new economy, market information is very important for sure, no doubt.现在无论是在旧经济还是在新经济中,市场信息是非常重要的肯定,毫无疑问。 Informationcan be categorized as commodity information and non-commodityinformation for example, non-commodity information we can say such astrade secrets, intellectual property, among others.信息可以被归类为商品信息和非商品信息,例如,非商品信息,我们可以说,如商业秘密,知识产权,等等。

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