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Is it naive to suggest that the war in Iraq is like the war in
Vietnam?
伊拉克战争类似于越南战争，这是一种天真的说法吗？
 Outrage has irrupted over President
George Bush’s use of the Vietnam analogy in his recent speech to
the Veterans of Foreign Wars to suggest the catastrophic
consequences of premature US withdrawal from Iraq. "Invoking the
tragedy of Vietnam to defend the failed policy in Iraq is as
irresponsible as it is ignorant," decried Senator John Kerry.
Senator Edward Kennedy opined that the US "lost the war in Vietnam
because our troops were trapped in a distant country we did not
understand, supporting a government that lacked sufficient
legitimacy."
最近在对“海外作战退伍军人组织”的一次讲话中，乔治.布什总统以越南为例，说美国提前从伊拉克撤军会有灾难性的后果，他的这番讲话迅速激起了一片愤怒。参议员约翰.克里发表声明说：“借用越南的悲剧来为伊拉克政策的失败进行辩护，这既是不负责任的，也是无知的。”参议员爱德华.肯尼迪发表意见说，美国之所以在“在越南战争中失利，是因为我们的军队陷入了我们并不了解的一个遥远国度，去支持一个缺少足够合法性的政府。”
However, the initial use of the Vietnam analogy comes not from
President Bush, but from al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist
adversaries. They frequently invoke Vietnam as their model for
Iraq. No one has yet accused them of being irresponsible or
ignorant in drawing the following lessons from it. One, you can win
a war against the United States without ever defeating it
militarily. Two, it is not necessary to win the "hearts and minds"
of the indigenous population, but to manipulate the "hearts and
minds" of the American people. Three, you can degrade the political
will of the US to the point that it will not only withdraw, but
also abandon its allies to the mercies of their opponents. As Ayman
al-Zawahiri, second in command to Osama bin Laden, wrote to the now
late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq in 2005: "the aftermath of the
collapse of American power in Vietnam – and how they ran and left
their agents – is noteworthy."
然而，拿越南进行类比，这并非始于布什总统。它的始作俑者是基地组织以及其他激进的伊斯兰对手。他们经常把越南用作描述伊拉克的模式。他们从中得到出了如下的经验教训，不过谁也不曾指责他们不负责任或者无知：第一，你可以在未从军事上挫败美国的情况下赢得对它的战争；第二，没有必要赢得当地人口的“思想感情”，但是有必要操纵美国人民的“思想感情”；第三，你可以把美国的政治意图降低到这样的程度：它不仅愿意撤退，而且还愿意抛弃自己的盟友，把他们交给自己的对手任意处置。地位仅次于奥萨马.本.拉登的第二号人物艾曼.扎瓦西里曾给伊拉克已故的扎卡维写信说：“美国势力在越南的垮台所引起的后果—以及他们落荒而逃和丢弃伙伴的方式，是值得注意的。”
From reactions to Bush’s speech, it is clear many people still
think that the US lost a guerrilla war in Vietnam. In order to
understand Vietnam as a model for insurgents in Iraq, we need to
recall exactly what happened there, just as they do. By 1972, the
US had withdrawn all ground forces from South Vietnam in the
process of "Vietnamisation." In the spring of that year, North
Vietnam launched a World War Two-style invasion with some 23
divisions, including hundreds of Soviet T-54 tanks. South
Vietnamese ground forces, backed by US air support and naval
gunfire, stopped this offensive and was in the process of reversing
it when Henry Kissinger agreed to a halt in place for negotiations.
It took North Vietnam several years to recover from its losses of
some 100,000 men (according to North Vietnamese General Tran Van
Tra) and to rebuild itself into the then fifth largest military
force in the world.
从对布什讲话的反应来看，显然许多人仍然认为美国在越南的游击战争中遭到了失败。既然越南已被当作伊拉克造反者的一个模式，那么为了理解越南，我们需要精确地回忆那里发生了什么，一如他们所做的那样。到1972年时，美国在“越南化”过程中从南越撤出了所有的地面部队。那年春天，北越动用大约23个师的兵力，包括数百辆苏制T-54式坦克，发动了一次二战式的入侵。南越地面武装在美国空中援助和海军炮火的支持下，顶住了这场进攻，并在亨利.基辛格同意停火谈判的时候，开始扭转局势。北越花了多年时间，才从10万人左右的伤亡中(据北越将军陈文茶)恢复元气，并且完成自己的重建，成为当时世界上的第五大军事强国。
By 1975, when North Vietnam tried another massed armored invasion,
several key things had changed. The Soviet Union had quintupled its
aid to the North, while the United States had cut its aid to the
South by two-thirds. Also, the 1973 Case-Church amendment had
passed Congress, cutting off all funding for any further US
military operations in Indochina. This rendered meaningless the US
promise to come to South Vietnam’s aid if the North broke the 1973
Paris peace treaty.
到1975年，当北越试图再次发动大规模的装甲入侵时，多种关键因素已经发生了变化。苏联对北越的援助已经增加了5倍，与此同时，美国却把自己对南越的援助削减了3分之2。此外，议会通过了1973年的“凯斯-丘奇”修正案，切断了美国对印度支那任何进一步军事行动的一切经济支持。美国曾经许诺，如果北越破坏1973年的巴黎和约，那么美国就会援助南越，由于上述原因，美国的诺言成了一句空话。
When North Vietnam struck with a score of divisions in 1975,
commanding General Van Tien Dung knew that US airpower would not
come to the rescue and that the South would soon run out of
ammunition and petrol, which it did. I will never forget my meeting
in California with the former military mayor of Da Nang on the
evening of the day that he learned he would never see his wife and
several of his children again. He recounted the estimated ratio of
incoming North Vietnamese fire as against what he was able to
return because of the lack of supplies. It was nearly twenty to one
against him. The North won because we abandoned the South.
当北越于1975年以20个师的兵力进行打击的时候，指挥进攻的文进勇将军知道美国的空军力量不会前来援救，也知道南越的弹药和汽油很快就会用光，而事情不出所料。我永远不会忘记那天晚上我在加利福尼亚和岘港市前军人市长会面时的情境，当时，他已经知道自己再也见不到自己的妻子和几个孩子了。他描述了估计出来的北越火力情况，由于缺乏供应，他根本无力还击：几乎20个人对他一个。北越赢了，原因是我们放弃了南越。
Earlier this summer, Senator Joseph Biden, the chairman of the
Senate Foreign Relations Committee warned on TV that failure in
Iraq would have broad consequences. Unlike Vietnam, he said, "the
other shoe would drop." In Vietnam, Senator Biden thinks that there
was no other shoe to drop; it was an isolated loss. What he
apparently does not understand is that Iraq is the other shoe
dropping from Vietnam. We are living out our failure in Vietnam
today in Iraq. The model of Vietnam is what incites the opponents
of the US to believe that they can defeat us. In fact, al-Qaeda saw
the Democratic win of Congress in the mid-term elections as proof
of their progress. In a 2006 tape, Zawahiri announced to the
Democrats, "The first is that you aren't the ones who won the
mid-term elections, nor are the Republicans the ones who lost.
Rather, the Mujahideen – the Muslim Ummah's vanguard in
Afghanistan and Iraq – are the ones who won, and the American
forces and their Crusader allies are the ones who lost."
今年夏天的早些时候，参议院外交关系委员会主席、参议员约瑟夫.拜登在电视上警告说，在伊拉克的失败将会导致广泛的后果。他说，和越南不同，“另一只鞋可能也会掉下来。”拜登参议员认为，在越南，不存在掉下另一只鞋的可能性；那是一种孤立的损失。他显然不明白伊拉克正是正从越南身上掉下来的另一只鞋。今天，在伊拉克，我们正为我们在越南的失败承担后果。越南的模式导致美国的对手们相信自己可以打败我们。事实上，基地组织曾把大选中期民主党在国会中的获胜看作自己取得进展的一个证据。在2006年的一盘磁带中，扎瓦西里向民主党人宣布说，“首先，你们不是赢得中期大选的胜利者，已经失利的共和党人也不是。确切地说，伊斯兰的游击战士——穆斯林社会在阿富汗和伊拉克的先锋战士们，才是胜利者，而美国军队以及他们的十字军联盟则是失败者。”
Zawahiri’s "vanguard" is continuing its strategy of terror. The
state of confusion into which we are thrown by what seem to be
senseless acts of brutal violence in Iraq produce the very effects
the terrorists intend: our incomprehension and demoralisation. We
conclude that we don’t belong, as Senator Kennedy might say, "in a
distant country that we don’t understand," and should therefore
leave. Also, how can we continue to support an incompetent and
corrupt Iraqi government that seems to lack "sufficient
legitimacy"?
扎瓦西里的“先锋战士”正在继续它的错误策略。在伊拉克发生的似乎毫无意义的野蛮暴力把我们抛进困惑之中，这种困惑状态产生了恐怖主义分子们预期的效果：我们的不解和士气受挫。我们得出结论认为，正如肯尼迪参议员可能会说的那样，我们不属于“我们并不理解的一个遥远国度”，因此应当离开那里。此外，我们怎么能够继续支持一个既无能、腐败又似乎缺少“足够合法性”的伊拉克政府呢？
It may be too early to tell if the US is now pursuing the correct
policy in Iraq. However, its enemies believe that they are and,
given some of the responses to President Bush’s speech, they may
well feel encouraged to think so. Perhaps the side that correctly
understands the lessons of Vietnam will win.
美国目前是否正在奉行正确的伊拉克政策，要回答这个问题还为时过早。然而，美国的敌人相信自己的政策正确无误，并且相信，考虑到布什总统讲话所引起的一些反应，他们很可能觉得有理由这样认为。或许，正确理解了越南教训的一方将会赢得胜利。
Robert R. Reilly was the 25th director of the Voice of America, and
served in Operation Iraqi Freedom.
罗伯特.R.瑞利曾是美国之音的第25位台长，并且曾为“自由伊拉克军事行动”服役。
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