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好消息,糟消息;我的建议;世界银行未提出方案Good/Bad news;My Proposals;World Bank gives no solution

(2010-12-03 19:23:47)

Good/Bad news; My Proposals; World Bank gives no solution

好消息,糟消息;我的建议;世界银行未提出方案

 

I. Good news - on 6 Dec. 2008 the developed countries have agreed to substantially cut agricultural subsidies. See,
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/chair_texts08_e.htm)
'6 December 2008 revised draft modalities'
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/agchairtxt_dec08_a_e.doc), (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/agchairtxt_dec08_a_e.pdf)
'TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4, 6 December 2008, Committee on Agriculture Special Session, REVISED DRAFT MODALITIES FOR AGRICULTURE' (123 pp.)

 

A brief is at
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/ag_modals_dec08_e.htm)
‘Unofficial guide to the 6 December 2008 revised draft modalities’
'Overall trade distorting domestic support (Amber + de minimis + Blue). EU to cut by 80%; US/Japan to cut by 70%; the rest to cut by 55%.' 'Cuts made over 5 years (developed countries)'.

 

II. Bad news - they claim that doing so would lead them to lose agriculture, and thus ask the developing countries to largely open non-agricultural markets as a compensation. The WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy supports this view. But the developing countries cannot afford. Hence the blockade of the Doha negotiations.

 

III. My proposed solution - the USA and Canada (just as New Zealand and Australia have demonstrated since the mid-1980s) would not need to adopt my proposed Dual Land System, but the other developed countries would need to, then substantially cutting agricultural subsidies would not lead them to lose agriculture, and thus no need to ask the developing countries to largely open non-agricultural markets as a compensation. Hence the breakthrough of the Doha negotiations. See,
(http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4cd5a06a0100jsbe.html)
'Jian-Ming Zhou Email to WTO Director-General Lamy of 23 Sep. 2009', (http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4cd5a06a0100jsbo.html)
'Jian-Ming Zhou Email to WTO Director-General Lamy of 8 Oct. 2009'.

 

IV. The following World Bank report reveals that more and more people have realized the importance of the rational farmland use as a global task, which has been neglected for too long.
(http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/ESW_Sept7_final_final.pdf)
‘Rising Global Interest in Farmland – Can It Yield Sustainable and Equitable Benefits?’

7 September 2010

Preface: ‘Interest in farmland is rising. And, given commodity price volatility, growing human and environmental pressures, and worries about food security, this interest will increase, especially in the developing world. Many countries have suitable land available that is either not cultivated or produces well below its potential. This was a development challenge even before the food price rise of 2008.’

 

Unfortunately, the World Bank has not given any effective and appropriate solution. If you heard any alternative to mine, could you please kindly inform me. Your valuable comments on my solution are cordially solicited. In case it were not in your specific field, your precious attention would be gratefully appreciated.

 

Looking forward to hearing from you. With many thanks and best wishes.

 

Sincerely yours,
Jian-Ming Zhou
PhD in Economics and Independent Researcher
Florence, Italy
Email: Jmzhou46@yahoo.com

 

一、好消息 -- 2008年12月6日发达国家同意大幅度削减农业补贴。见,
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/chair_texts08_e.htm)
“2008年12月6日模块草案修订版”
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/agchairtxt_dec08_a_e.doc), (http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/agchairtxt_dec08_a_e.pdf)
“TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4,2008年12月6日农业特别委员会农业模块草案修订版”(123页)

 

简本在
(http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/ag_modals_dec08_e.htm)
“2008年12月6日模块草案修订版非官方指南”
“扭曲贸易的国内综合支持(黄箱+下限+蓝箱)。欧盟削减80%,美国/日本削减70%,其它发达国家削减55%。”“(发达国家)在五年内完成削减”。

 

二、糟消息 -- 它们声称削减农业补贴将导致它们丧失农业,因而要求发展中国家大幅度开放非农市场作为补偿。世贸组织总裁巴斯卡尔∙拉米也支持这种观点。但发展中国家无力承受。多哈谈判因而搁浅。

 

三、我所建议的解决方案 -- 美国和加拿大(正象新西兰和澳大利亚自1980年代中期以来所示范的那样)无须采纳我所建议的两田制,但其它发达国家需要实施之。如此,大幅度削减农业补贴就不会导致它们丧失农业,因而也就没有必要要求发展中国家大幅度开放非农市场来作补偿,多哈谈判僵局就能突破。见,
(http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4cd5a06a0100jsbe.html)
“周兼名2009年9月23日致世贸组织总裁拉米的电邮”,
(http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4cd5a06a0100jsbo.html)
“周兼名2009年10月8日致世贸组织总裁拉米的电邮”。

 

四、下附世界银行报告显示越来越多的人士已经意识到理性使用耕地的重要性,而这项全球性任务已被忽视得太久。
(http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTARD/Resources/ESW_Sept7_final_final.pdf)
“在全球范围内不断上升的对耕地的关切 – 这能导致可持续和公平的利益吗?”
2010年9月7日
序言:“对耕地的关切正在上升。并且,考虑到商品价格的波动、人类和环境加大的压力、和对粮食安全的担忧,这种关切将增高,在发展中国家尤其是如此。许多国家具有合适易得的土地,但没有耕种,或产出大大低于潜能。甚至在2008年粮食价格上涨之前,这就已经是对发展的一项挑战。”

 

不幸地是,世界银行未提出有效而适宜的解决方案。若您听说有对我的建议的任何替代方案,能否请您告知。恳请您对我所建议的解决方案提出宝贵评语。如果碰巧这不在您的具体领域内的话,我也将非常感谢您的关注。

 

此致
崇高敬礼!

 

经济学博士独立研究者
周兼名
于意大利佛罗伦萨
电邮地址: Jmzhou46@yahoo.com

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