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关于大小球的一点个人认识和方法(转)

(2006-12-12 12:50:24)
分类: 大小得宜
    本文的内容,完全是我个人研究大小球的一个历程,由最初的豪情万丈到最终的无疾而终,内心经历了种种的起起落落,期间本人也逐渐从一个玩球的菜鸟渐渐成熟成长为一个能够控制好心态的小玩家。很早就想写点这方面的东西,回顾一下曾经走过的路,总结一下经验教训,但后来由于各种缘故一直束之高阁。这次写这个帖子,是出于一种纪念,亦或是为了忘却。本文没能告诉你怎样准确地判断大小球,但是你至少可以了解到本文中所提到的方法,或许,对那些专门玩大小球的朋友,本方法可以为你提供哪怕是一点点的参照。由于本人是个工科生,所以在一开始玩球的时候就在想能否建立一个系统,用一种数字的方法来判断一场球赛的结果。因为刚开始玩波,亚盘和欧赔都是擀面杖吹火---- 一窍不通,本人便想到能否从大小球开始入手。于是在国内有名的几个博球网站(MSO、中足网等等)挖地三尺,遍寻有关于大小球方面的帖子,凯斯·西蒙顿在《伟大》一文中指出,无论任何领域,想要精通该行业,你就需要掌握大约50,000条信息。这一点适用于各个行业,从象棋比赛、其他体育运动到科学研究都是这样。中国也有句古话,隔行如隔山。面对一个陌生的东西,我想那个老外说的话是很有点道理的。在翻玩所有我能找到的有关大小球方面的帖子后,我发现结果并不能让我满意,因为没有一个帖子提到怎样用一个比较直观的数字方法来判断大小球。刚刚有点想法,居然就碰了一鼻子灰。: -)虽然在MSO的LOTA上看到有一项给出了交战双方的主队得失球和客队得失球的数据(最近看了一下MSO的新版LOTA,发现这项数据没有了,不知道为什么),但一来我不知道他们是怎么算的,(MSO里有很多高水平的帖子,提到什么历史数据的衰减计算、泊松分布等等,虽然我是个工科生,但我大学里学的最差的就是高数:-),临到毕业还补考,当时觉得高数就是BULLSHIT,没什么JB用,现在额头冒汗了,没想到工作中玩西门子的大型程控交换机都没用到,却在玩球时遇到了。人生真的很有意思阿,如果有上帝话,看来这个玩笑开大了)二来我是想要自己算出大小球的结果,当时觉得那些数据对我没什么用。既然国内的网站找不到,(也许有,但我是没找到)干脆上国外网站找找。刚好可以把弃置多年的英文捡一下,因为觉得老外玩足球玩标准盘和大小球的比较多。于是GOOGLE,YAHOO一通搜索,还真是功夫不负有心人,让我给找到了一遍文章。原文如下: I never really thought about betting Over/Under but in the last few days I've been trying out a new strategy, seeing how successful I could be with Over/Under. I will include all the bets I have noted till now, and no one has to believe me that I actually guessed these before the matches, since you have no proof, but that's your choice, I will show my bets from now on, hopefully continuing with a successful run. My strategy is simple - stats. You all know this, but very few actually write down the stats and learn them. Here's what I do - say there's a match between Fullham and Liverpool. I will check what's Fullham's average of goals scored and conceived at home - which is 1.16 scored and 1.5 conceived, overall - 2.66 avg. goals in Fullham's home games. Let's continue... Liverpool away scores 1.3 goals and conceives 1.5, overall - 2.8 avg. goals in Liverpool's away games. Now I check the minimum and maximum amount of goals according to the stats. Fullham scores in home games 1.16 goals, and Liverpool conceives 1.5, the higher number is 1.5. Now, Liverpool scores in away games 1.3 goals and Fullham conceives in home games 1.5 goals, the higher number is 1.5. So the max is 1.5 + 1.5 = 3.0 goals in the game. In the same manner you find the minimum which is 2.46. The avg. of the min/max is 2.73. Meaning, all the stats show a possibility of OVER. 2.66 avg goals in Fullham home games, 2.80 avg goals in Liverpool away games and the min/max avg. is 2.73 - all OVER 2.5. Since these are the stats, my bet would ofcourse be OVER. If the numbers are a not as decisive towards over, and I am not almost sure what the stats say, I will not touch the game. Sometimes if I can't decide by the home/away stats, I will check the home team's games and see how many were under and how many were over, but usually I would leave a game alone if the stats weren't very decisive. The only way I would bet if the stats aren't decisive are if they show a good possibility of over or under and the odd on that is very high (above 2 - f.ex Udinese-Palermo which was a lost bet). Now, you could say I'm stupid since if under is a low odd it means the stats are decisive at under and same if over is a low odd but that's not the truth. Usually the odds are based more on the team's squads rather than stats, f.ex Real played against Getafe, and the stats showed a sure under, but the odd on under was over 2.40, and I managed to win that bet (again, I'm just testing, no money involved yet). So anyway, here are my first bets and I will continue updating in this thread (all bets 100 USD, odds taken from betfair, could be higher/lower at a later/earlier date): [Let's assume my bank is 1000 USD] Wolfsburg v Mainz OVER 2.5 @ 1.75 win Bolton v Newcastle OVER 2.5 @ 2.06 win Real v Getafe UNDER 2.5 @ 2.46 [value] win Udinese v Palermo OVER 2.5 @ 2.43 [value] lost Betis-Malaga UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 win Maritimo-Braga UNDER 2.5 @ 1.79 lost Setubal-Guimeras UNDER 2.5 @ 1.78 win ManCity-Norwich UNDER 2.5 @ 1.86 win Original bank: 1,000 New bank: 1,548 (54% profit) Overall 8 bets, 7 bets won, 1 bet lost Hope this run will continue and this will help some people, and if it does continue to be successful I will start investing money in it.
后面这个老外继续按他的方法来判断赛果的发贴,加上其他人的跟帖,以至于这个帖子足足有好几十页。当时看到这个老外的帖子后,心下狂喜,如果至宝。但冷静下来后,仔细想了想。上面这篇文章的发表日期是2004年11月2日,如果这个方法可行,那TMD现在谁还敢开大小球盘阿?带着这个疑问,我还是开始按照这个老外的方法来做个人统计。看到这里,对英文很感冒的朋友不要着急,下面是我举例来说明老外的方法。比如 富勒姆(主)VS利物浦
主队主场进球数(avg) 1.16 主队主场失球数(avg) 1.5 2.26 MAX(主进客失) 1.5 MAX= 3
MAX(主失客进) 1.5
客队客场进球数(avg) 1.3 客队客场失球数(avg) 1.5 2.8 MIN(主进客失) 1.16 MIN= 2.46
MIN(主失客进) 1.3
平均值= 2.73
主进+主失=1.16+1.5=2.66 〉2.5 客进+客失=1.3+1.5=2.8 〉2.5 平均值=[(主进和客失的最大值+主失和客进的最大值)/2+(主进和客失的最小值+主失和客进的最小值)/2]=2.73 〉2.5 因为这三个条件都满足了,所以他选择大球。他的这种方法,是一种静态数据分析方法。当时看完这个帖子后,我就打算自己开始尝试了。这时,我遇到问题了,这个老外的主队进球数平均值是从哪里得来的呢?他没说啊。我忽然想到了MSO,那个LOTA数据里不是正好有这项数据嘛,先不管它是怎么得来的,直接套上去看看结果再说。不过我没有按照老外的三个条件都必须满足才下手,我是直接参考平均值再加上交战双方的战意还有天气等其他因素来判断的。像老外说的那种情况太少了,就是有的话,大小球盘口也都到2.5/3,3或者是更高了。看来庄家也不是傻瓜阿。而在必发的2.5的大小球盘口,这种情况下大球都是很低的水位,而且是~相当~的低。后来我又在这个分析的基础上,加上另外一项数据,就是通过交战双方的最近8场比赛的进球数得到的上面公式里用到的各项数据的平均值,其实选择8场或6场都可以,数据相差不大,但选择场次太多或者太少的话我认为意义不大。有了这个最近8场的数据,我的这个大小球静态数据分析系统就算初步告成了。通过对近8场比赛的数据分析而得到得结果,与我从MSO LOTA上所得到的平均进球数据相比较,我发现相差不是太大,这让我很是高兴。剩下的事情,就是对比赛的分析和统计了。但我这个大小球判断系统尝试的结果大家应该可以知道,结果是并不能让我获得盈利。

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