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经济与管理学院   会计学07-02班 组名:一朵猪

(2008-05-14 12:50:08)
标签:

杂谈

管理学作业

07级会计2班

经济与管理学院    会计学0702

组名:一朵猪

组员:郦珺    200742070206

      裴丽娜  200742070207

      杨锐红   200742070208

      肖艳华   200742070209

8. Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches.

 解释大中取大,小中取大,和大中取小三种决策选择方法。

Answer: The maximax choice is maximizing the maximum possible payoff. The optimistic managers will follow this choice. The maximin choice is maximizing the minimum possible payoff. The pessimist will follow this choice. The minimax choice is minimizing the maximum “regret”.

 答:大中取大选择是最大化最大可能的收益。乐观的管理者会遵循这种选择。小中取大选择是最大化最小可能收益。悲观主义者会遵循这种选择。大中取小选择是最小化最大的遗憾。

9. Describe the four decision making styles. 描述四种决策制定风格。

Answer:Directive style: Directive style is a decision making style characterized by low tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. Decision makers using this style are efficient and logical. Directive types make fast decisions and focus on the short run. They make decisions with minimal information and assessing few alternatives.

命令型风格:命令型风格是具有较低的模糊承受力的人运用理性的思维方法的一种决策制定风格。具有这种风格的人讲究效率和逻辑性。命令型的决策制定简洁快速,关注短期的结果。他们在制定决策方面只考虑少量的信息和评估少量方案。

Analytic style: Analytic style is a decision making style characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and a rational way of thinking. Decision makers with this style want more information before making a decision and consider more alternatives. They are characterized as careful decision makers with the ability to adapt or cope with unique situations.

分析型风格:分析型风格是具有较高模糊承受力的人运用理性的思维方法的一种决策制定风格。具有这种风格的决策者在制定决策之前试图得到更多的决策信息和考察更多的选择。他们以谨慎为特征,具有适应和符合某些特殊情况的能力。

Conceptual style:   Conceptual style is a decision making style characterized by a high tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. Individuals with this style tend to be very broad in their outwork and look at many alternatives. They focus on the long run. 

概念型风格:概念型风格是具有较高模糊承受力的人运用创造性的思维方法的一种决策制定风格。具有这种风格的人趋向于具有广泛的看法和愿意考察更多的选择,他们关注决策的长期结果。

Behavioral style: The behavioral style is a decision making style characterized by a low tolerance for ambiguity and an intuitive way of thinking. Decision makers with this style work well with others. They are concerned about the achievements of those around them and are receptive to suggestions from others. They often use meeting to communicate, although they try to avoid conflict. Acceptance by others is important to this decision making style.

创造型风格:创造型风格是具有较低模糊承受力的人运用创造性的思维方法的一种决策制定风格。具有这种风格的人同其他人相处得很好,他们关注下级的成就和愿意接受来自下级的建议。他们通常通过会议方式进行沟通,虽然这可能带来冲突。为其他人所接受对这种决策风格来说是非常重要的。  

10Discuss the decision-making biases managers may exhibit.

讨论管理者在作决策时可能出现的偏见。

Answer: ⑴. When decision makers tend to think they know more than they do or hold unrealistically positive views of themselves and their performance, they're exhibiting the overconfidence bias.

通常决策者偏向他们知道的比他们做的或抓住不现实的观点更多,这表现为他们过分的自信。

⑵. The immediate gratification bias describes decision makers who tend to want immediate rewards and to avoid immediate costs.

满足偏见是描述那些趋向于想直接获得报酬的和避免直接花费的决策者。

⑶. The anchoring effect describes when decision makers fixate on initial information as a starting point and then, once set; fail to adequately adjust for subsequent information. First impressions, ideas, prices, and estimates carry unwarranted weight relative to information received later.

沉锚效应描述当决策者专注于最初的信息作为第一个观点。就像第一印象,想法等比较后来的标准的信息是毫无保证的。

⑷. When decision makers selectively organize and interpret events based on their biased perceptions, they're using the selective perception bias. This                                 influences the information they pay attention to, the problems they identify, and the alternatives they develop.

决策者一—他们的直觉作为事件的解释基础,他们用的是选择的直觉,这种作用是他们关注于信息,证明了他们的难题平切选择了可代替他们发展的事物。

⑸. Decision makers who seek out information that reaffirms their past choices and discount information that contradicts past judgments exhibit the confirmation bias. These people tend to accept at face value information that confirms their preconceived views and are critical and skeptical of information that challenges these views.

那些寻找出信息而再次决定他们过去的选择,并且那些否认信息的观点不重要的决策者显示了有利证据。那些接受在他们面前的能证实他们的那些先入为主的观点和危机的或者怀疑的信息,从而改变他们的观点的有价值的信息。

⑹. The framing bias is when decision makers select and highlight certain aspects of a situation while excluding others. By drawing attention to specific aspects of a situation and highlighting them, while at the same time downplaying or omitting other aspects, they distort what they see and create incorrect reference points.

门框陷阱,决策者选择而且最突出一个形式的某些想法,从而排斥别人的观点,他们曲解他们所看到的和创造的不正确的观点。

⑺. The availability bias is when decisions makers tend to remember events that are the most recent and vivid in their memory. The result? It distorts their ability to recall events in an objective manner and results in distorts judgments and probability estimates.

记忆可靠性,决策者趋向记住在他们记忆中大多近来的生动的事件,结果就是它曲解了他们用客观方式记忆的事件而造成扭曲的判断和可能的估计

⑻. When decision makes assess the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events or sets of vents, that's the representation bias. Managers exhibiting this bias draw analogies and see identical situations where they don't exist.

决策者评价一个可能性的事件的根据是接近别的事或符合别的事,称为相似表征

⑼. The randomness bias is when decision makers try to create meaning out of random events. They do this because most decision makers have difficulty dealing with chance even though random events happen to everyone and there's nothing that can be done to predict them.

随机陷阱,决策者试着创造所谓的任意事件,他们这样做是因为大多数决策者有不同的处理方式,即使任意的事件发生在每个人身上。

⑽. The sunk costs error is when decision makers forget that   current choices can't correct the past. They incorrectly fixate on past expenditures of time, money, or effort in assessing choices rather than on future consequences.

沉没成本,决策者忘记当前的选择,不能改正过去,他们不正确的关注过去花费的时间,金钱和效力而是关注将来的结果。

⑾. Decision makers who are quick to take credit for their successes and to blame failure on outside factors are exhibiting the self-serving bias.

他们把成功归于他们良好的信誉而把失败责怪于外因,这种称为自我服务

The hindsight bias is the tendency for decision makers to falsely believe that they would have accurately predicted the outcome of an vent once that outcome is actually know.

事后诸葛亮,决策者的错误的信任,他们能精确的推出预言和事后的结果的。

11 Explain the managerial decision-making model

解释管理的决策模式 

Answer: Because it's in their best interests, managers want to make good decisions-that is, choose the " best " alternative, implement it, and determine whether or not it takes care of the problem-the reason a decision was needed in the first place. their decision-making process is affected by four factors including the decision-making approach being followed the decision-making conditions, the type of problem being dealt with, and the decision maker's own style of decision making. In addition, certain decision-making errors and biases may impact the process. Each of these factors plays a role in determining how a manager tardiness a decision. so whether that decision involves addressing an employee's habitual tardiness, resolving a problem with product quality, or determining whether to enter a new market, remember that it has been shaped by a number of factors.

因为涉及管理者的切身利益,所以他们都希望制定正确的决策,也就是选择最佳方案,实施它们,并且决定是否应考虑所处的环境。他们的决策过程受到四种因素的影响,包括决策方法,决策条件,问题的类型,以及决策者的决策风格。每种因素在决定管理者如何决策方面都扮演着不同的角色,因此无论决策涉及处理雇员的不良习惯,解决产品质量问题,还是决定是否进入新市场,请记住,他们都受到多种因素的影响。

12Discuss the ways managers can make better decisions.

讨论管理者做更好决策的方法?

Answer It’s in their best interests, managers want to make good decisions-that is, choose the “best” alternative, implement it, and determine whether or not it6 takes care of the problem-the reason a decision was mended in the first place. Their decision-making process is affected by four factors including the decision-making approach being followed, the decision-making conditions, the type of problem being dealt with, and the decision maker’s own style of decision making. In addition, certain decision-making errors and biases may impact the process. Each of these factors plays a role in determining how manager makes a decision. So whether that decision involves addressing an employee’s habitual tardiness, resolving a problem with product quality, or determining whether to enter a new market, remember that it has been shaped by a number of factors.

答:决策涉及到管理者的切身利益,所以他们都希望制定正确的决策,也就是选择的最佳方案,实施它们,并且决定是否应考虑所处的环境。他们的决策过程受到四种因素的影响,包括决策方法,决策条件,问题的类型,以及决策者的决策风格。每种因素在决定管理者如何决策方面都扮演着不同的角色,因此无论决策涉及处理雇员的不良习惯,解决产品质量问题,还是决定是否进入新市场,请记住,它们都受到多种因素的影响。

13Explain how managers can make effective decisions in today's world.说明在当今世界管理者如何做更有效的决策

Answer: Know when it's time to call it quits. When it's evident that a decision isn't working, don't be afraid to pull the plug. As we said earlier, many decision makers block or distort negative information because they don't want to believe that their decision was bad. They become so attached to the decision that they refuse to recognize when it's time to move on. In today's dynamic environment, this type of thinking simply won't work.

Practice the five whys. When the environment is highly uncertain, one way to encourage good decision making is to get people to think more broadly and deeply about the issues. Because of the intense time pressure that managers face, it may be tempting to do just a superficial analysis. The" five whys" approach suggests that employees learn to ask" why" not just once, but five times. Asking the first time "why" this is happening usually results in a superficial explanation for the problem; subsequent "whys" force decision makers to probe more deeply into the causes of the problem and possible solutions

Be an effective decision maker. An effective decision-making process has these six characteristics:"(1)It focuses on what's important;(2)It's logical and consistent;(3)It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking;(4)It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma;(5)It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion; and (6)It's straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible."

答: ●知道何时到了互不相欠的时候。当一项决策明显的毫无作用时,不要害怕拉开这个塞子。像我们前面说过的,许多决策者阻碍或曲解一些无预期结果的信息,因为他们不想相信他们的决策是不好的。当到了更换话题的时候,他们变得如此重视他们所拒绝认识到的决策。在今天的王朝式的环境里,这种思考方式自然是不起作用的。

       ●习五个为什么。当环境是高度的不确定时,鼓励做出很好决策的一种方法是让人们思考问题更加深远和开阔,由于管理者面对着强烈的时间压力,那可能诱使他们只是做了一个表面的分析,“五个为什么”的方法让雇员学习问“为什么”不仅仅是一次,而是五次,当问第一次为什么的时候是对问题的一种表面解释,而随后的“为什么”决策者将以更加深入调查问题有效的,可能的解决办法为中心。

      ●一个有效的决策者。一个有效的决策过程有这六个特征:①以“什么是重要的”为核心;②有逻辑的和始终如一的;③它认可主观及客观的想法和将分析与直觉判断融为一体;④它要求尽量多的信息和分析,因为那是对去重新解决一个具体的困境是必要的;⑤它鼓励和引导将有关信息和相关观点聚集起来;⑥它是简单易懂的,可靠的,易使用的,灵活的。

14 List the six characteristics of an effective decision-making process. 列举出一种有效的决策制定过程的六个特征。

Answer:  It focuses on what's important.

 It's logical and consistent.

 It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.

 It requires only as much information and analysis as is necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.

It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information and informed opinion.

It's straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.

答:①特以“什么是重要的”为核心;②有逻辑的和始终如一的;③它认可主观及客观的想法和将分析与直觉判断融为一体;④它要求尽量多的信息和分析,因为那是对去重新解决一个具体的困境是必要的;⑤它鼓励和引导将有关信息和相关观点聚集起来;⑥它是简单易懂的,可靠的,易使用的,灵活的。

15 Describe the five habits of highly reliable organization.                  描述高收入组织的五种习惯.

Answer:They're not tricked by their success.

They defer to the experts on the front line.

HROs let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.

They embrace complexity.

HROs anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.

:①他们不会被成功所蒙蔽。

②他们遵从于一线专家。

③HROs让突发情况提供答案。

④他们本身极具复杂性。

⑤HROs预期结果,但也预料到他们自身的局限性。

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