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格林斯潘:美国衰退几率依然高于五成

(2008-05-27 11:39:28)
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军事

经济

格林斯潘

美国衰退

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分类: 政治-经济热点--时事焦点

格林斯潘:美国衰退几率依然高于五成

来源:英国金融时报

 

美联储(Fed)前任主席艾伦 格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)对英国《金融时报》表示,尽管美国经济状况在最近几周相对稳定,但美国发生经济衰退的可能性依然高于不发生衰退的可能性。

格林斯潘表示:“我仍然认为经济衰退的可能性超过50%。”但他也表示:“这种可能性已经下降了一点,并且我认为,发生严重衰退的可能性已经显著下降。”

他的评论与某些方面不断增强的乐观情绪相左。在过去的6周内,由于就业报告好于预期、商业活动调查结果走强,多数经济学家已经下调了他们对美国经济衰退可能性的估计。许多经济学家现在认为,美国将会勉强避免彻底的经济收缩。
格林斯潘还表示,要判断金融危机的最坏状况是否已经结束,现在还“为时尚早”,因为将这取决于房价的情况。

格林斯潘预计,房价将从2月份的水平再度下跌10%,从高点以来的总跌幅将达到25%左右。

他表示,如果经济虚弱且市场调整过度,房价可能进一步下跌5%。

他表示:“房价如此下跌,意味着业主住房的资产净值水平大幅缩水,而这是抵押支持证券的最终担保物。”

格林斯潘表示,尚未清楚大型金融机构是否已经进行了所有的资产减记,包括评级较高的抵押支持信贷产品。

他承认,他对近来的经济数据有点困惑——这些数据表明经济在3月份左右就已经停止了恶化。

“衰退的特点在于数据中明显的不连续性,”他表示,“最初的情况就是这样——从12月份至3月份有一个极其不连续的时期。但然后它就终止了。”

 

英文原文:

RECESSION STILL LIKELY, WARNS GREENSPAN

 

The US is still more likely than not to have a recession in spite of the relative stabilisation in the economy in recent weeks, Alan Greenspan has told the Financial Times.

The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: “I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession.” But he said “that probability has receded a little and I think the probability of a severe recession has come down markedly”.

His comments come as a counter to the increasing optimism in some quarters. In the last six weeks, most economists have scaled back their estimates of the likelihood of a US recession following a better than expected jobs report and stronger business activity surveys. Many now think the US will narrowly dodge outright economic contraction.
The former Fed chief also said that it was “too soon to tell” whether the worst of the financial crisis was over, as this would depend on what happens to house prices.

Mr Greenspan estimates that house prices will fall by another 10 per cent from their February levels, for a total peak-to-trough decline of roughly 25 per cent.

If the economy is weak and the market overshoots, house prices could decline by another 5 per cent, he says.

“Such house price declines imply a major contraction in the level of equity in owner-occupied homes, the ultimate collateral for mortgage backed securities,” he said.

Mr Greenspan said it was still not clear whether big financial institutions had taken all the writedowns they would need to take on higher rated tranches of mortgage-backed credit products.

He admitted he was puzzled by recent economic data that suggests that the economy stopped deteriorating around March.

“A recession is characterised by significant discontinuities in the data,” he said. “It started off that way – there was a period of sharp discontinuity from December to March. But then it stopped.”

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