——The Government Is Willing to Let Wall Street Firms Fail. That's Good.

By Kenneth Rogoff
Tuesday, September 16, 2008; Page A21

    This past weekend, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve finally made it abundantly clear相当清楚的表态 that they won't bail out every significant financial firm in America. Certainly this came as a rude shock to many financiers. In allowing the nation's fourth-largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers, to file for bankruptcy申请破产, and by forcefully indicating that they are prepared to see even more bankruptcies, our financial regulators showed Wall Street that they are not such creampuffs after all.

    The question now: What's next? Assuming the financial sector continues to melt down over the next couple of months, at what point, if any, should the government get back into the game? It would be a mistake to do so before a great deal more consolidation takes place. During the epic boom of the past 20 years, the financial services sector became badly bloated.在过去20年间史诗般的繁荣期间，金融服务公司宠坏了。At its peak在其鼎盛时期, it accounted for over one-third of corporate profits in the United States, not to mention the staggering billions of dollars in bonuses that Goldman Sachs ($12.1 billion in 2007) and others paid their employees.更别提高盛和其他金融公司付给员工的惊人的奖金数额。Now, in the wake of the subprime mortgage debacle, investment banks are seeing some of their most profitable lines of business evaporate. Profits from complex mortgage products are not coming back anytime soon; nor are profits in many other areas that rely on huge borrowing.

    Instead, "deleveraging" is the buzzword throughout the financial system, as firms prune their borrowing and their positions. As profits come down to more earthly levels, the U.S. financial system is going to shrink. In all likelihood, at least 15 percent of financial employees -- including at the high end包括高层 -- are going to lose their jobs. In principle, this shrinkage could take place through all firms and banks trimming their operations proportionately一定比例的. But that is not how a capitalist economy operates. Whether it is the auto, airline or tech industries, the strong devour the weak.无论是汽车、航空或高科技产业，总是大鱼吃小鱼，弱肉强食。That is why it was inevitable that some banks would either fail or submit to distress mergers, including even some of the largest.这就是为什么不可避免的有些银行要么倒闭要么被迫合并，甚至包括那些最大的银行。That is why it has been quite clear for some months that the trauma to the U.S. financial system was not over.这也就是为什么美国金融系统的创伤还没有结束。 
    Letting a big investment bank go, as the Fed and Treasury did this weekend, was a calculated risk in a difficult situation.对一家大的投行放任不管，正如美联储和财政部上周末所作的一样，是困难情况下经过精心计算的风险行为。And the risks are very real. With the immense interconnectivity of the financial system, there really is no telling where the unprecedented failure of a big investment bank might lead. On the other hand, ponying up tens of billions in tax money, as the Federal Reserve did in March when another investment bank, Bear Stearns, collapsed, is no answer, either. With the housing market still weakening, with U.S. exports likely to suffer as the global economy falters and with unemployment rising, it is clear that simply bailing out Lehman Brothers would not stop the rot in the financial system. 随着房地产市场的持续衰弱，随着美国出口可能因全球经济衰退而受损，还随着失业率的增加，很明显，简单的保释雷曼兄弟并不能终止金融系统中的腐烂。

    In March, the Federal Reserve took on $29 billion in risky Bear Stearns assets. Bailing out Lehman probably would have involved at least as large a commitment. If such a maneuver could have put an end to the crisis, it might have been justified, but that is hardly the case with many other giants teetering. This is not to mention the trillions of dollars in liabilities the Treasury took on 10 days ago in bailing out the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.这还没有提到10天前财政部因保释房贷大公司房利美和房地美而背负的亿万负债。These alone will probably end up costing taxpayers $100 billion to $200 billion, assuming inflation-adjusted housing prices fall another 10 to 12 percent.

    Will taxpayers now escape without further damage? Probably not. More likely, the stress will continue for some time, radiating out into corporate debt, hitting big automakers, many debt-strapped cities and others. At some point, the federal government will blink again, and taxpayers will probably end up paying at least another couple hundred billion dollars before this extraordinary mess ends.从某种意义上说，政府又要再次视而不见了，纳税人将可能要再支付至少几千亿美元在这场异常的困境结束之前。But by placing some of the burden on the shareholders and bondholders of the big financial institutions, financial regulators have at least forced some discipline onto the system, making bankers and investors think twice before they once again head off to the races.让银行家和投资者在再次投入这场比赛之前三思而后行。By allowing firms that took excessive risks to fail, regulators also reduce the political pressure to overregulate the system in the aftermath of the crisis. Let's hope they hang tough for at least a little while longer.让我们祈祷他们能坚持的长一点。

今日生词本

cream puffs 奶油泡芙
Treasury 财政部
Federal Reserve 美联储
bail out 保释
file for 提起诉讼
melt down 融化
epic 史诗般的
boom 繁荣
bloated 傲慢的，自大的
staggering 惊人的，巨大的，难以想象的
debacle 灾害，崩溃
subprime mortgage 次级贷款
evaporate 蒸发
deleverage
buzzword 行话
prune 削减
high end 高层
devour 吞没
merger 合并

submit to 屈服于
trauma 创伤
immense 巨大的，无限的
unprecedented 史无前例的，空前的
pony up 付账
falter 衰退
maneuver 策略，调动
teeter 摇晃，动摇
blink 视而不见，躲避
extraordinary 异常的，特别的
aftermath 事情结束后的一段时期
hang tough 坚持

Cited from：http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/15/AR2008091502532.html