加载中…

这是一次有预谋的攻击

2014-10-08 00:51:50评论 股票 财经
我回来了。

假期间,就有不少同志要我评论香港占中的事件,我脑子第一反应,是《老子》那句话:天之道,损有余而补不足,人之道,损不足而益有余。你说,这大陆的,连自家物业小区管理委员会都决定不了,还理会人家香港老表们的事宜,这和叫花子关心地主家晚上吃什么有什么区别?我立即婉言拒绝了。我不大理会香港那块的事宜,还有一个缘故,一个管境内同胞叫“蝗虫”的城市,满大街游行示威,编排外歌曲疯狂攻击大陆游客的人民,只能让我冷漠处之,我还没犯贱到替他们说话的那个地步。再说了,人家是特别行政区,结社、信息和言论自由,什么场面没见过?什么事情没听过?比我们大陆人民高到不知哪里去了,你还担忧他们前途?没见过李超人的财产都大搬家到欧洲吗?有些人啊,图森破啊,乃以务!

不说了,大家闷声大发财先!
说到发财,我节前预警我公司的客户,欧美金银市场空头可能在假期发动一轮攻击,现在看,蒙对了,我之前网上找到保罗•克雷格·罗伯茨一篇文章,叫我老婆翻译了一下,现在贴出来,大家看看:


自2011年9月起,美联储及其储金银行代理(摩根大通、丰业及汇丰)一直通过裸卖空手段压低金价。最近一次压制始于今年七月中旬,当时金价从六月初开始上涨,紧逼关键技术层级,可能引发对冲基金的大规模买入。美联储和银行代理操纵着纽约商品交易所(纸黄金)市场的金价。在纽约商品交易所交易平平的时候,这些储金银行可以无限印发巨额黄金合约。

通常来说,在交易的另一面,合约买家是大型对冲基金和其他投机者,他们利用黄金合约来推测金价的走向。对冲基金和投机者对购买实物黄金不感兴趣,他们使用现金交易,这样储金银行就可以卖出他们无法用实物黄金支持的纸黄金。这样卖出的黄金合约也叫裸卖空。在股票及债券市场中进行裸卖空是非法的,但在黄金期货市场是可以的。 由于金价由期货市场的纸黄金交易推断而定,这就意味着美联储及其银行代理即使在实物黄金需求上涨的时候也可以压低金价。如果严格禁止黄金的裸卖空,且必须有卖家的实物黄金支持,那么美联储及其代理就无法控制金价,而金价也会比目前的价格水平高出许多。当金条交付需求开始对金价施压,对冲基金预测金价上涨进而大量购买纽约商品交易所纸黄金时,就会出现金价操纵。这种投机交易加速金价上涨。

TF MetalsReport这样描述了黄金市场的非法操纵。“在年初10周的时间里,纽约商品交易所储金银行就将金价反弹控制在仅15%以内,方法就是给”市场”提供了95,000份新裸卖空合约,等于9.5MM盎司市场相信的纸黄金,约295吨。”“在六月和七月为期5周的时间里,纽约商品交易所储金银行通过提供79,000份新裸卖空合约将反弹控制在7%以内。这等于7.9MM盎司纸黄金,约246吨。”详见http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/429940。在以前的专栏里,我们记录了大量卖空转向交易清淡的时期,如:ttp://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/16/insider-trading-financial-terrorism-comex/。

 如果买方决定按照纸黄金合约中的条款要求卖方交付黄金,那么储金银行根本没有足够多的实物黄金。黄金价格操控之所以能够成功,是因为大多数买方都是投机者,不需要购买实物黄金,并且从来不需要卖方交付黄金。相反,这些买家只通过现款进行交易,目的是获得短期交易利润,而不是通过黄金避免通货膨胀带来的风险。如果大多数买空者(黄金合约的购买方)要求交付黄金,那么监督部门就不能容忍这样裸卖空黄金。

 我们认为操控价格是非法的,因为这属于内线交易。储金银行卖空黄金市场,是纽约商品交易所/美国纽约商业交易所/芝加哥商业交易所的结算会员。在这样的角色里,储金银行可以利用用于交易的计算机系统,这就意味着储金银行可以了解到所有贸易立场,包括对冲基金。如果对冲基金做多,储金银行就会在纽约商品交易所倾销裸卖空,以压低期货价格,进而引起止损指令和追加保证金通知带来的卖出,进一步压低价格。随后储金银行以低于他们卖出价格的价格买入,并将差价利润收进腰包。同时,由于金价被压低,就免去了金价上涨给美元带来的问题,从而也帮助了美联储保护美元不受其宽松货币政策的影响。

 从七月中旬开始,我们在美国几乎每个晚上都看到金价平稳或升高。这是由于东半球的市场开市,那里的买方正忙于购买实物黄金,必须进行黄金交付。但是,非常有规律的是,随着亚洲市场闭市,伦敦和纽约纸黄金市场开市,由于纸黄金合约涌入市场,金价立刻下降,给当天的交易蒙上阴影。

 懂行的人可以透过黄金看出将出现什么金融和经济问题。例如,从2000年1月技术泡沫破灭前夕,到2008年3月贝尔斯登引发严重的金融危机,黄金价值从每盎司250美元上涨到1020美元,增长400%。不仅如此,在严重的金融崩溃之后的时间里,虽然政府声称金融体系得以修复,黄金价格仍然增长了61%。到2011年9月,金价上升了225%,随后美联储开始控制金价,来保护美元,因为量化宽松产生了大量新的美元需求。


  美国的经济和金融体系状况很糟糕,比美联储和财政部,以及财经媒体报告中声称或报道的要糟得多。国债和私人债务的负担都很重。公司向银行借钱来回购股份。这样公司就有了新的债务,却没有来自新投资的收益流来还债。零售店身陷困境,包括一元连锁店。房市出现再次衰退的迹象。9月16日发布的2013年收入与贫困报告显示,真实的家庭入息中位数已经下降至二十年前1994年的水平,比二十世纪六十年代末和七十年代初的水平还要低。高债务低收入的组合就意味着无法驱动经济发展。

 在21世纪,美国债务和货币的增长并没有与其相匹配的商品与服务增长。这种不协调意味着通货膨胀。如果储金银行没有操控价格,那么金银就能够反映出这些通胀预期。美元也陷入困境,因为美国为了使美元凌驾于其他货币之上,为了制裁不迎合美国外交政策目标的国家,滥用其货币职能,这威胁到美元作为国际储备货币的角色。沃尔福威茨理论是美国外交政策的基础,称华盛顿必须防止其他国家的崛起,如俄罗斯和中国这些会限制美国势力的国家。制裁和制裁威胁鼓励其他国家脱离美元支付系统、放弃石油美元。金砖四国的成立正是为此。俄罗斯与中国签署了大规模长期能源协议,并且避免使用美元。这两个国家间的贸易账户都是以本国货币建立的,而这种做法也愈加广泛。中国在考虑由黄金支持的人民币,这样将使中国货币成为非常受欢迎的储备资产。美联储攻击黄金的目的有可能是让中国和俄罗斯难以用黄金支持其货币。因为金价的下跌或上涨会影响货币。


 还不清楚位于中国上海的新黄金交易所是否将取代伦敦和纽约的期货市场。中国的黄金交易所不允许裸卖空,这样世界上就会出现两种黄金期货市场:一个基于实际评估,一个基于投机和价格操控。 

未来将会决定储备货币是否会被时间推到。美元在二战后扮演了储备货币的角色。那时美国是唯一工业经济没有被摧毁的国家,人们需要平稳的方式结算财务。现在,有很多国家拥有流通货币,并且可以使用本国货币进行财务结算。因此人们不再需要单一的储备货币。当人们愈来愈意识到这一点,美元价值所面临的压力也会逐步加剧。

 在一段时间里,美联储可以给日本和欧洲央行施压,使其引发货币,在外汇市场中进行交易来支持美元,这样就可以保护美元的交换价值。像瑞士这样的国家将印发本国货币,来避免美元价格升高给国家出口带来的伤害。但是到最后,由于美国将商品生产和服务外包再售回美国市场造成巨额贸易赤字,由于工作外包造成中产阶级和税基崩塌,这些将会最终摧毁美元的价值。 

当那一天到来时,已经受到威胁的美国生活水平将一落千丈。美联储牺牲国家经济来挽救四五个大银行——这些银行的前高管控制着美联储、美国财政部,和联邦金融监管机构毁灭,美联储这样的政策,加之公司的贪婪,都将会摧毁美国的力量。

Rigged Gold Price Distorts Perception of Economic Reality
Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler
The Federal Reserve and its bullion bank agents (JP Morgan, Scotia,and HSBC) have been using naked short-selling to drive down theprice of gold since September 2011. The latest containment effortbegan in mid-July of this year, after gold had moved higher inprice from the beginning of June and was threatening to take outkey technical levels, which would have triggered a flood of buyingfrom hedge funds.



The Fed and its agents rig the gold price in the New York Comexfutures (paper gold) market. The bullion banks have the ability toprint an unlimited supply of gold contracts which are sold in largevolumes at times when Comex activity is light.
   
Generally, on the other side of the trade the buyers of contractsare large hedge funds and other speculators, who use the contractsto speculate on the direction of the gold price. The hedge fundsand speculators have no interest in acquiring physical gold andsettle their bets in cash, which makes it possible for the bullionbanks to sell claims to gold that they cannot back with physicalmetal. Contracts sold without underlying gold to back them arecalled “uncovered contracts” or “naked shorts.” It is illegal toengage in naked shorting in the stock and bond markets, but it ispermitted in the gold futures market.
    
The fact that the price of gold is determined in a futures marketin which paper claims to gold are traded merely to speculate onprice means that the Fed and its bank agents can suppress the priceof gold even though demand for physical gold is rising. If therewere strict requirements that gold shorts could not be naked andhad to be backed by the seller’s possession of physical goldrepresented by the futures contract, the Federal Reserve and itsagents would be unable to control the price of gold, and the goldprice would be much higher than it is now.
  
Gold price manipulation is used when demand for delivery of goldbullion begins to put upward pressure on the price of gold andhedge funds speculate on the rising price of gold by purchasinglarge quantities of Comex futures contracts (paper gold). Thisspeculation accelerates the upward move in the price of gold. TheTF Metals Report provides a good description of this illegalmanipulation of the gold market:
    
“Over a period of 10 weeks to begin the year, the Comex bullionbanks were able to limit the rally to only 15% by supplying the“market” with 95,000 brand new naked short contracts. That’s 9.5MMounces of make-believe paper gold or about 295 metric tonnes.

“Over a period of just 5 weeks in June and July, the Comex bullionbanks were able to limit the rally to only 7% by supplying the“market” with 79,000 brand new naked short contracts. That’s 7.9MMounces of make-believe paper gold or about 246 metric tonnes.”http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/429940

In previous columns, we have documented the heavy short-sellinginto light trading periods. See for example:http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/16/insider-trading-financial-terrorism-comex/.
    
The bullion banks do not have nearly enough gold in theirpossession to make deliveries to the buyers if the buyers decide tostand for delivery per the terms of the paper gold contract. Thereason this scheme works is because the majority of the buyers ofthe contracts are speculators, not gold purchasers, and neverdemand delivery of the gold. Instead, they settle the contracts incash. They are looking for short-term trading profits, not for agold hedge against currency inflation. If a majority of the longs(the purchasers of the contracts) required delivery of the gold,the regulators would not tolerate the extent to which gold isshorted with uncovered contracts.
   
In our opinion, the manipulation is illegal, because it is insidertrading. The bullion banks that short the gold market are clearingmembers of the Comex/NYMEX/CME. In that role, the bullion bankshave access to the computer system used to clear and settle trades,which means that the bullion banks have access to all the tradingpositions, including those of the hedge funds. When the hedge fundsare in the deepest, the bullion banks dump naked shorts on theComex, driving down the futures price, which triggers selling fromstop-loss orders and margin calls that drive the price downfurther. Then the bullion banks buy the contracts at a lower pricethan they sold and pocket the difference, simultaneously servingthe Fed by protecting the dollar from the Fed’s loose monetarypolicy by lowering the gold price and preventing the concern that arising gold price would bring to the dollar.
   
Since mid-July, nearly every night in the US the price of goldremains steady or drifts higher. This is when the easternhemisphere markets are open and the market players are busy buyingphysical gold for which delivery is mandatory. But as regular asclockwork, following the close of the Asian markets, the London andNew York paper gold markets open, and the price of gold isimmediately taken lower as paper gold contracts flood into themarket setting a negative tone for the day’s trading.
  
Gold serves as a warning for aware people that financial andeconomic trouble are brewing. For instance, from the period of timejust before the tech bubble collapsed (January 2000) until justbefore the collapse of Bear Stearns triggered the Great FinancialCrisis (March 2008), gold rose in value from $250 to $1020 perounce, or just over 400%. Moreover, in the period since the GreatFinancial Collapse, gold has risen 61% despite claims that thefinancial system was repaired. It was up as much as 225% (September2011) before the Fed began the systematic take-down and containmentof gold in order to protect the dollar from the massive creation ofnew dollars required by Quantitative Easing.
  
The US economy and financial system are in worse condition than theFed and Treasury claim and the financial media reports. Both publicdebt and private debt burdens are high. Corporations are borrowingfrom banks in order to buy back their own stocks. This leavescorporations with new debt but without income streams from newinvestments with which to service the debt. Retail stores are introuble, including dollar store chains. The housing market isshowing signs of renewed downturn. The September 16 release of the2013 Income and Poverty report shows that real median householdincome has declined to the level in 1994 two decades ago and isactually lower than in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Thecombination of high debt and decline in real income means thatthere is no engine to drive the economy.
 
In the 21st century, US debt and money creation has not beenmatched by an increase in real goods and services. The implicationof this mismatch is inflation. Without the price-rigging by thebullion banks, gold and silver would be reflecting these inflationexpectations.
   
The dollar is also in trouble because its role as world reservecurrency is threatened by the abuse of this role in order to gainfinancial hegemony over others and to punish with sanctions thosecountries that do not comply with the goals of US foreign policy.The Wolfowitz Doctrine, which is the basis of US foreign policy,says that it is imperative for Washington to prevent the rise ofother countries, such as Russia and China, that can limit theexercise of US power.
   
Sanctions and the threat of sanctions encourage other countries toleave the dollar payments system and to abandon the petrodollar.The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have formedto do precisely that. Russia and China have arranged a massivelong-term energy deal that avoids use of the US dollar. Bothcountries are settling their trade accounts with each other intheir own currencies, and this practice is spreading. China isconsidering a gold-backed yuan, which would make the Chinesecurrency highly desirable as a reserve asset. It is possible thatthe Fed’s attack on gold is also aimed at making Chinese andRussian gold accumulation less supportive of their currencies. Acurrency linked to a falling gold price is not the same as acurrency linked to a rising gold price.
   
It is unclear whether the new Chinese gold exchange in Shanghaiwill displace the London and New York futures markets. Nakedshort-selling is not permitted in the Chinese gold exchange. Theworld could end up with two gold futures markets: one based onassessments of reality, and the other based on gambling andprice-rigging.
   
The future will also determine whether the role of reserve currencyhas been overtaken by time. The US dollar took that role in theaftermath of World War II, a time when the US had the onlyindustrial economy that had not been destroyed in the war. A stablemeans of settling international accounts was needed. Today thereare many economies that have tradable currencies, and accounts canbe settled between countries in their own currencies. There is nolonger a need for a single reserve currency. As this realizationspreads, pressure on the dollar’s value will intensify.
  
For a period the Federal Reserve can support the dollar’s exchangevalue by pressuring Japan and the European Central Bank to printtheir currencies with which to support the dollar with purchases inthe foreign exchange market. Other countries, such as Switzerland,will print their own currencies so as not to endanger their exportsby a rise in the dollar price of their exports. But eventually thelarge US trade deficits produced by offshoring the production ofgoods and services sold into US markets and the collapse of themiddle class and tax base caused by jobs offshoring will destroythe value of the US dollar.
   
When that day arrives, US living standards, already endangered,will plummet. American power will have been destroyed by corporategreed and the Fed’s policy of sacrificing the US economy in orderto save four or five mega-banks, whose former executives controlthe Fed, the US Treasury, and the federal financial regulatoryagencies.
  
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