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交易心理30

(2009-03-31 14:40:57)
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杂谈

在本章,我想给你一个交易练习,这样就能在你的思想环境中融合这些事实。
The first stage is the mechanical stage. In this stage, you:
第一阶段是机械阶段。在这个阶段,你:
1. Build the self-trust necessary to operate in an unlimited environment.
2. Learn to flawlessly execute a trading system.
3. Train your mind to think in probabilities (the five fundamental truths).
4. Create a strong, unshakeable belief in your consistency as a trader.
1. 在无限的环境中建立必要的自信。
2. 学习没有缺点地执行一个交易系统。
3. 训练你的思想用概率思考(5个基本事实)。
4. 创造一个强壮的,不动摇的信念,以成为持续一致的交易者。
Once you have completed this first stage, you can then advance to the subjective stage of trading. In this stage, you use anything you have ever learned about the nature of market movement to do whatever it is you want to do. There’s a lot of freedom in this stage, so you will have to learn how to monitor your susceptibility to make the kind of trading errors that are the result of any unresolved self-valuation issues I referred to in the last chapter.
一旦你完成了第一阶段,你可以进阶到交易的自觉阶段。在这个阶段,你可以利用你已经学到的任何市场知识去做你想做的事。这个阶段有很多自由度,所以你只要学习如何避免犯错,这些错误是上一章提到的无法解决的自我评估问题造成的。
The third stage is the intuitive stage. Trading intuitively is the most advanced stage of development. It is the trading equivalent of earning a black belt in the martial arts. The difference is that you can’t try to be intuitive, because intuition is spontaneous. It doesn’t come from what we know at a rational level. The rational part of our mind seems to be inherently mistrustful of information received from a source that it doesn’t understand. Sensing that something is about to happen is a form of knowing that is very different from anything we know rationally. I’ve worked with many traders who frequently had a very strong intuitive sense of what was going to happen next, only to be confronted with the rational part of themselves that consistently, argued for another course of action. Of course, if they had followed their intuition, they would have experienced a very satisfying outcome. Instead, what they ended up with was usually very unsatisfactory, especially when compared with what they otherwise perceived as possible. The only way I know of that you can try to be intuitive is to work at setting up a state of mind most conducive to receiving and acting on your intuitive impulses.
第三阶段是直觉阶段。凭直觉交易是交易的最高境界。这相当于在拳击中赢得了黑带。不同的是,你不能尽量尝试有直觉,因为直觉是自发的。直觉并非来自我们的理性。对于不了解的信息,理性部分会犯错。感觉到有什么事要发生和理性地知道有什么事要发生是完全不同的。和我沟通的很多交易者有很强的直觉,知道下一步会如何。如果他们遇到了自己的理性部分,这部分的观点是不同的。当然了,如果他们跟随自己的直觉,结果非常满意。相反,结果通常就不满意。我只知道,如果你想让直觉工作,你就要建立直觉的思想状态。
THE MECHANICAL STAGE
机械阶段
The mechanical stage of trading is specifically designed to build the kind of trading skills (trust, confidence, and thinking in probabilities) that will virtually compel you to create consistent results. I define consistent results as a steadily rising equity curve with only minor draw downs that are the natural consequence of edges that didn’t work.
交易的机械阶段是特意设计的,以建立交易技术(信任、自信和概率性思考),逼你实现持续一致的结果。我把持续一致的结果定义为资金曲线的稳定上涨,其间只有比较小的下跌。
Other than finding a pattern that puts the odds of a winning trade in your favor, achieving a steadily rising equity curve is a function of systematically eliminating any susceptibility you may have to making the kind of fear, euphoric or self-valuation based trading errors I have described throughout this book. Eliminating the errors and expanding your sense of self-valuation will require the acquisition of skills that are all psychological in nature.
不是为了找到机会大的,对你有利的模式,实现稳定上涨的资金曲线是为了消灭贯穿本书的交易缺点,比如害怕、过分兴奋、自我评估。消灭缺点,扩大你的自我评估感觉,这都要求掌握心理技术。
The skills are psychological because each one, in its purest form, is simply a belief. Remember that the beliefs we operate out of will determine our state of mind and shape our experiences in ways that constantly reinforce what we already believe to be true. How truthful a belief is (relative to the environmental conditions) can be determined by how well it serves us; that is, the degree to which it helps us satisfy our objectives. If producing consistent results is your primary objective as a trader, then creating a belief (a conscious, energized concept that resists change and demands expression) that “I am a consistently successful trader” will act as a primary source of energy that will manage your perceptions, interpretations, expectations, and actions in ways that satisfy the belief and, consequently, the objective.
技术是心理相关的,因为任何技术都是信念。记住,我们的信念会决定我们的思想状态和体验,并加强我们相信的东西。信念越真(相对于环境状况),越能服务于我们,也就是越能帮助我们实现我们的目标。如果说,交易者的基本目标就是持续一致的结果,那么创造一个“我是持续一致的成功者”的信念就会成为主要的能量,这个能量会管理你的认知、解读、期望和行动,以满足信念和目标。
Creating a dominant belief that “I am a consistently successful trader” requires adherence to several principles of consistent success. Some of these principles will undoubtedly be in direct conflict with some of the beliefs you’ve already acquired about trading. If this is the case, then what you have is a classic example of beliefs that are in direct conflict with desire.
创造一个主导的“我是持续一致的成功者”的信念需要坚持几个原则。有些原则和你已经有的信念有冲突。如果是这样,信念和欲望就是冲突的。
The energy dynamic here is no different from what it was for the boy who wanted to be like the other children who were not afraid to play with dogs. He desired to express himself in a way that he found, at least initially, virtually impossible. To satisfy his desire, he had to step into an active process of transformation. His technique was simple: He tried as hard as he could to stay focused on what he was trying to accomplish and, little by little, he de-activated the conflicting belief and strengthened the belief that was consistent with his desire.
这里的能量状态和那个看见其他小孩和狗玩耍的小孩的是一样的。他希望用他以前认为不可能的方式来表达自己。为了实现这个欲望,他需要进行一些转变。他的技术很简单:他努力聚焦于他要做的事,一点一点地,他去除了有冲突的信念的活跃性,并加强了和他欲望相关的信念。
At some point, if that is your desire, then you will have to step into the process of transforming yourself into a consistent winner. When it comes to personal transformation, the most important ingredients are your willingness to change, the clarity of your intent, and the strength of your desire. Ultimately, for this process to work, you must choose consistency over every other reason or justification you have for trading. If all of these ingredients are sufficiently present, then regardless of the internal obstacles you find yourself up against, what you desire will eventually prevail.
如果这是你的欲望,你需要进行转变,把自己变成持续一致的赢家。谈到个人的转变,最重要的成分是你愿意转变,你的目标清晰,你欲望的力量强大。最后,为了实现这个过程,你必须选择持续一致作为你的交易理由,并放弃其它理由。如果这些理由都存在,不管你的内部障碍是什么,你最期待的事最终会占优势。
Observe Yourself
观察你自己
The first step in the process of creating consistency is to start noticing what you’re thinking, saying, and doing. Why? Because everything we think, say, or do as a trader contributes to and, therefore, reinforces some belief in our mental system. Because the process of becoming consistent is psychological in nature, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that you’ll have to start paying attention to your various psychological processes. The idea is eventually to learn to become an objective observer of your own thoughts, words, and deeds. Your first line of defense against committing a trading error is to catch yourself thinking about it. Of course, the last line of defense is to catch yourself in the act. If you don’t commit yourself to becoming an observer to these processes, your realizations will always come after the experience, usually when you are in a state of deep regret and frustration.
创造持续一致性的第一步是关于你想的、你说的、你做的事。为什么?因为我们想的、说的、做的事都会影响到,并加强我们思想系统里面的信念。因为实现持续一致是一个心理过程,这就不奇怪你必须从关注你的心理过程开始。目标是最终能客观地观察你的思想、言词和行为。防止交易犯错的第一道防线是不要有错误的思想。当然了,最后一道防线是不要有错误的行为。如果你不能承诺自己会成为观察者,你就总是先体验,再有认知,这样通常就是深度后悔和深受挫折。
Observing yourself objectively implies doing it without judg … consequence for what you are… ing about yourself. This might not be so easy for some of you to do considering the harsh, judgmental treatment you may have received from other people throughout your life. As a result, one quickly learns to associate any mistake with emotional pain. No one likes to be in a state of emotional pain, so we typically avoid acknowledging what we have learned to define as a mistake for as long as possible. Not confronting mistakes in our everyday lives usually doesn’t have the same disastrous consequences it can have if we avoid confronting our mistakes as traders.
客观地观察自己就是……(张轶注:此处英文缺失)。对于有些人来说,用别人评判你的方式来评判自己是不太容易的。结果是,很容易把错误和痛苦联系起来。没有人喜欢自己精神痛苦,所以我们避免定义自己的错误。作为交易者,如果我们避免面对自己的错误,通常不会像生活中那样能避免灾难性的结果。
For example, when I am working with floor traders, the analogy I use to illustrate how precarious a situation they are in is to ask them to imagine themselves walking across a bridge over the Grand Canyon. The width of the bridge is directly related to the number of contracts they trade. So, for example, for a one-contract trader the bridge is very wide, say 20 feet. A bridge 20 feet wide allows you a great deal of tolerance for error, so you don’t have to be inordinately careful or focused on each step you take. Still, if you do happen to stumble and trip over the edge, the drop to the canyon floor is one mile.
比如,我和一些场内交易者沟通,我让他们想象在大峡谷的桥上走路是多么的谨慎。桥的宽度和他们交易的合约数是相关的。举例说,1份合约相当于桥的20英尺宽。20英尺宽的桥面可以让你不用那么小心,不用那么谨慎,你可以忍受比较多的错误。然而,如果你不小心搬到了,跌出桥面,你跌到大峡谷的下面还有1英里。
I don’t know how many people would walk across a narrow bridge with no guardrails, where the ground is a mile down, but my guess is relatively few. Similarly, few people will take the kinds of risks associated with trading on the floor of the futures exchanges. Certainly a one-contract floor trader can do a great deal of damage to himself, not unlike falling off a mile-high bridge. But a one-contract trader also can give himself a wide tolerance for errors, miscalculations, or unusually violent market moves where he could find himself on the wrong side.
我不知道有多少人敢走桥面窄,没有栏杆,离地面1英里高的桥,我猜这样的人应该很少。同理,很少有人敢在场内做期货。当然,和从1英里高的桥上掉下来不同,交易1份合约的交易者也会极大地伤害自己。但是,只交易1份合约的交易者可以忍受比较大的错误、误算或市场的剧烈反向波动。
On the other hand, one of the biggest floor traders I ever worked with trades for his own account with an average position of 500 Treasury bond futures at a time. He often puts on a position of well over a thousand contracts. A position of 1,000 T-bond contracts amounts to $31,500 per tic (the smallest incremental price change that a bond contract can make). Of course, T-bond futures can be very volatile and can trade several tics in either direction in a matter of seconds.
另一方面,我遇到的交易量最大的场内交易者,他的账户平均有500份债券期货。他的仓位经常超过1000份合约。一个有1000份债券合约的账户相当于每变动一个基点(债券合约的最小变动单位),账户总额就有31500元的账户变化。当然,债券期货的波动很大,每秒钟会向任意方向波动几个基点。
As the size of a traders position increases, the width of our bridge over the Grand Canyon narrows. In the case of the large bond trader, the bridge has narrowed to the size of a thin wire. Obviously, he has to be extremely well-balanced and very focused on each step that he takes. The slightest misstep or gust of wind could cause him to fall off the wire. Next stop, one mile down.
当仓位增加时,大峡谷上面的桥面就变窄了。对这个大量交易债券的交易者来说,桥面已经窄到了一根铁丝的程度。显然,他必须极力平衡自己的账户,并非常关于自己的每个动作。走错一小步或轻微的风就能把他吹下铁丝。下一站在1英里下面。
Now, when he’s in the trading pit, that tiny misstep or slight gust of wind is the equivalent to one distracting thought. That’s all, just a thought or anything else where he allows himself to lose his focus for even a second or two. In that moment of distraction, he could miss his last favorable opportunity to liquidate his position. The next price level with enough volume to take him out of his trade could be several tics away, either creating a huge loss or forcing him to give a substantial winning trade back to the market.
现在,他在场内的交易柜台,走错一小步或轻微的风相当于分心。也就是说,只要他在1,2秒内有一个想法或任何想法,导致他无法关注于自己。当他分心时,他就错过了最后的平仓机会。能再次平仓的位置可能是几个基点以外了,要么是大亏,要么是把赢的很多钱又送还给市场。
If producing consistent results is a function of eliminating errors, then it is an understatement to say that you will encounter great difficulty in achieving your objective if you can’t acknowledge a mistake. Obviously, this is something very few people can do, and it accounts for why there are so few consistent winners. In fact, the tendency not to acknowledge a mistake is so pervasive throughout mankind, it could lead one to assume that it’s an inherent characteristic of human nature. I do not believe this is the case, nor do I believe we are born with the capacity to ridicule or think less of ourselves for making a mistake, miscalculation, or error.
如果产生持续一致性的结果就是要消灭错误,如果你不知道错误是什么,保守地说,你会面对很多苦难。显然,很少人能做到,所以只有少数人能成为持续一致的赢家。实际上,人类是很固执的,一般不愿意去承认自己的错误,所以一般人认为这是天生的人性。我不这么认为,也不相信我们天生就只会嘲笑,或根本不考虑我们的错误、误算或犯错。

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