加载中…
个人资料
九连山老黄
九连山老黄
  • 博客等级:
  • 博客积分:0
  • 博客访问:1,144,587
  • 关注人气:3,519
  • 获赠金笔:0支
  • 赠出金笔:0支
  • 荣誉徽章:
相关博文
推荐博文
谁看过这篇博文
加载中…
正文 字体大小:

巴伦周刊:如何像巴菲特那样选股

(2010-11-06 08:04:52)
标签:

巴菲特

投资

股票

财经

分类: 名家投资,大师智慧
2010年 11月 05日 
巴伦周刊:如何像巴菲特那样选股
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20101105/inv081900.asp?source=UpFeature

沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)骄人的投资记录无可争议:他的伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)市值已达2,050亿美元。但是过去几年来,巴菲特投资的一些公司其股价表现却令人失望,其中包括康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)、U.S. Bancorp、卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)、赛诺菲安万特(Sanofi-Aventis)、强生公司(Johnson & Johnson),甚至还有富国银行(Wells Fargo)。

所有这些企业都算得上是实力雄厚、管理有方。假使巴菲特的眼光没有错,那么眼下投资者就有机会花费比伯克希尔更少的钱来买入这些公司的股票。

比如说,U.S. Bancorp目前的股价为23美元,远低于伯克希尔平均31美元的投资成本。康菲石油的股价为61美元,而伯克希尔的买入价是73美元。法国制药公司赛诺菲安万特美国上市股票的股价为34美元,低于伯克希尔买入时的40美元(伯克希尔主要持有本土股票)。卡夫食品目前的股价为32美元,而巴菲特当时的买入价为33美元。以上提到的关于巴菲特的持股成本来自于他致股东的年度信中列出的数据。

巴菲特不愿与《巴伦周刊》(Barron's)讨论他的股票投资。但是在2009年3月接受CNBC电视台的采访时,巴菲特曾经说过,“我经常犯错……这是游戏的一部分。你只要确保你做的正确的事比错事多。”毫无疑问,伯克希尔做到了这一点。它从上世纪80年代就开始持有可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola)和宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble)的股票,现在这两家的股价已经上涨了10倍左右。伯克希尔持有的宝洁公司股份来自于对吉列公司(Gillette)的投资,2005年宝洁收购了吉列。

关于康菲石油公司,巴菲特对CNBC表示,他犯了错误,因为在他买进康菲石油股票的时候油价已经超过了每桶100美元,而当油价下跌的时候,康菲石油的股票也大幅跳水。伯克希尔在这次投资中损失了10多亿美元,但从2008年末到现在公司已经减持了大半的康菲石油股票。

早在20年前,伯克希尔就开始持有富国银行的股票。尽管巴菲特从这个银行巨头身上赚到了钱,但这主要得益于早期富国银行股价低廉。近年来,伯克希尔以大约每股32美元的均价增持了富国银行的股票,而富国银行现在的股价约为26美元。强生公司的股价约为64美元,接近伯克希尔买入时的60美元。

伯克希尔买入的几支股价下跌的股票其估值还是相当合理的。赛诺菲的2010年预期市盈率仅为7倍;富国银行的2011年预期市盈率为不到10倍,市净率也降值1.6倍的历史低点。U.S. Bancorp一向被看作是管理有方的金融公司,该股的2011年预期市盈率为11倍。

令人不感意外的是,巴菲特在2009年3月份致股东的年度信中提到了这些股票的一些亮点。他写道,伯克希尔去年减持康菲石油、穆迪公司(Moody's)、宝洁公司和强生公司的股票,部分原因是为了筹措现金,以投资瑞士再保险公司(Swiss Re)和陶氏化学公司(Dow Chemical)的可转换优先股,事实证明这两笔投资有利可图。巴菲特写道这四只股票的股价“未来可能走高”。

从巴菲特的市场动作看,他今年愈发看好强生公司,对康菲石油、卡夫食品和宝洁公司却不那么热衷。他大量增持了强生股票,却减持了其他三家公司的股票。

巴菲特并不赞成卡夫食品今年对英国糖果制造商吉百利公司(Cadbury)的颇具争议性的收购,认为卡夫支付的收购价过高,而且使用了自身被低估的股票来达成交易。巴菲特似乎在通过减持股票来表达他的不满──伯克希尔去年底持有卡夫食品1.3亿股股票,但今年6月30日时,公司的持股量已降至1.05亿股。但华尔街对这桩交易的兴趣却日渐浓厚。今年以来,卡夫食品的股价已经上涨了17%。

巴菲特对几乎所有资产类型都很精通,包括股票、债券、货币、大宗商品和金融衍生品。然而,他曾经开玩笑说,在投资领域没有“难度分”。有时候,最简单的投资会收到最大的回报。他每年都会研究成百上千家公司的年报。巴菲特在3月份时曾提到,他刚刚在周五晚上仔细研究了美国国际集团(American International Group) 550页的2009年10-K报告。凭借百科全书式的专业知识,巴菲特往往仅凭这些报告就可以轻松制定投资计划。大约10年前,在看过中石油公司(PetroChina)的财务报告、发现该公司对其能源储备的估值只相当于西方石油公司的一个零头后,他作出了一笔获得丰厚回报的投资。(尽管近年来伯克希尔在美国国内股市的投资并不十分理想,但公司在海外的投资却大有斩获,比如投资中国的电池制造商比亚迪 (BYD)和韩国浦项综合制铁公司(Posco))。

巴菲特喜欢简单。他认为富国银行是一家注重基本面的高回报银行。今年三季度,富国银行存款的平均利率不足0.5%。2009年早些时候,当富国银行股价徘徊在10美元上下的时候,巴菲特在接受CNBC采访时表示,金融危机结束后,富国银行可以实现400亿美元的税前利润(在进行100亿到120亿美元的贷款损失拨备前),这相当于每股4美元的税后利润。

现在看来,由于经济低迷、新股发行和监管变动导致银行业手续费收入降低,巴菲特的预测显得有些过于乐观了。另外,富国银行也在应对丧失抵押品赎回权不当披露的影响。分析人士认为,富国银行明年每股盈利将达2.80美元,2012年为3.50美元。这些盈利将轻松地让它的股价超过30美元。

尽管截至今年6月30日,伯克希尔仍持有价值550亿美元的股票,但它的股票组合已经不再像15、20年前那样,是其股价的主要推动力。伯克希尔更多依靠的是它完全控股的企业,包括Burlington Northern 铁路公司和汽车保险公司Geico,几家公用事业公司和大型的财产、意外再保险企业。

巴菲特没有透露伯克希尔股票组合的表现。我们预计它今年的表现不亏不赚,而截至10月27日标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)则上涨了5%。2009年,伯克希尔的股票组合上涨了约17%,而同年标准普尔500指数的增幅为23%。

巴菲特在金融危机中买入了价值约210亿美元的未上市证券,这是笔极为出色的投资,其中包括高盛公司(Goldman Sachs) 50亿美元的优先股和通用电气公司(General Electric)30亿美元的优先股。两家公司的股息均为10%,而且高盛公司的权证目前的市值约为20亿美元。4月份,《巴伦周刊》猜测高盛可能会寻求回购那些高成本优先股。《华尔街日报》10月28日报导,高盛正在考虑采取这样的行动。

很多专业人士认为,在经历过令人失望的十年之后,蓝筹股将是未来十年的最佳投资手段之一,而投资巴菲特青睐的企业可能是在这场盛宴中分一杯羹的好办法。

ANDREW BARY


Feature | MONDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2010
Blue-Chip Specials From the Buffett Menu
By ANDREW BARY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB60001424053111903904904575560182172162948.html
Some recent investments by the legendary Warren Buffett have been slow to pay off. But these solid, well-run companies may still be a good—and inexpensive—bet.



There's no quibbling with Warren Buffett's extraordinary overall investment record, which has resulted in a $205 billion stock-market value for Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRKA). But, in the past few years, Buffett has invested in some companies whose shares have been disappointing. Among them: ConocoPhillips, U.S. Bancorp, Kraft Foods, Sanofi-Aventis, Johnson & Johnson and even Wells Fargo.

All of these are strong, well-managed companies. Assuming Buffett hasn't erred, investors have the opportunity now to buy some of them for less than what Berkshire paid.

U.S. Bancorp, for instance, trades near 23, appreciably below Berkshire's average cost of $31. ConocoPhillips is at 61; Berkshire paid 73. French drug maker Sanofi's U.S.-listed shares, at 34, are below Berkshire's cost of $40 (Berkshire mainly owns the local shares). Kraft is at 32; Buffett paid 33. We based the cost figures on data in Buffett's annual shareholder letter.

Buffett wouldn't discuss his equity investments with Barron's. But in a CNBC interview in March 2009, he said: "I make plenty of mistakes…That's part of the game. You just got to make sure that the right things overcome the wrong ones." That's certainly true for Berkshire, whose Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble holdings, which date back to the 1980s, are about 10 times above the company's cost. The P&G stake came from an investment in Gillette, bought by P&G in 2005.

With Conoco, Buffett told CNBC, he erred because he bought it when oil was above $100 a barrel; the shares tanked when crude collapsed. Berkshire, which lost more than $1 billion on that investment, has cut its Conoco stake by more than half since late 2008.

Wells Fargo is a Berkshire holding dating back 20 years. While Buffett has a gain on the banking giant, it is mainly from early purchases of the stock at depressed prices. In recent years, Berkshire has added to its holding at an average price around 32; Wells Fargo now is around 26. J&J, at 64, is close to Berkshire's cost of $60.

Berkshire's losers trade at reasonable valuations. Sanofi is valued at just seven times projected 2010 profits; Wells Fargo, for less than 10 times next year's estimated profits and for a historically low 1.6 times tangible book value. Long viewed as one of the best-run financial companies, U.S. Bancorp fetches 11 times projected 2011 profits.

Not surprisingly, Buffett had some nice things to say about his stocks in the 2009 annual letter that March. He wrote that Berkshire's decision to pare its stakes in ConocoPhillips, Moody's, P&G and J&J last year was driven in part by a need to raise cash for what turned out to be lucrative investments in Swiss Re and Dow Chemical convertible preferred. Buffett wrote those four stocks "likely will trade higher in the future."

Based on what Buffett has done in the market, he's gotten more bullish on Johnson & Johnson, and less excited about Conoco, Kraft and P&G this year; he has bought more J&J and pared his holdings of the others.

Buffett was unhappy with Kraft's controversial purchase of British candy maker Cadbury this year, arguing Kraft was overpaying and using its own undervalued currency for the deal. He seems to be voting with his feet—the Kraft holding stood at 105 million shares on June 30, down from 130 million at year-end. Wall Street has been keener on the deal, however; Kraft is up 17% this year.

Buffett is well versed in virtually all asset classes, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and financial derivatives. He has joked, however, that there's no bonus for a "degree of difficulty" in investing. Sometimes, the best investments are the simplest ones. He tackles hundreds of annual reports each year. In March, he noted that he had just plowed through American International Group's 550-page 2009 10-K on a Friday night. With his encyclopedic industry knowledge, Buffett often is comfortable investing based solely on such reports. He made a very profitable investment in PetroChina nearly a decade ago, after reading its financials and recognizing that its energy reserves were valued at a fraction of those of Western oil companies. (While Berkshire's domestic stock investments haven't done particularly well in recent years, the company has scored abroad with winners such as Chinese battery maker BYD and Korean steel producer Posco.)

Buffett likes simplicity. He views Wells Fargo as a high-return bank that sticks to basics. In the third quarter, it paid an average interest rate of less than 0.5% on its deposits. In early 2009, when the stock was around 10, Buffett told a CNBC interviewer that, when the financial crisis ended, Wells Fargo could generate $40 billion of pretax profits before a provision of $10 billion to $12 billion for loan losses. That equates to roughly $4 a share in after-tax profits.

That scenario seems optimistic now, thanks to a weak economy, share issuance and regulatory changes that are cutting fee income industrywide. Wells Fargo also is grappling with the impact of possibly improper disclosures on foreclosures. Analysts see it generating $2.80 a share in profits next year and $3.50 in 2012. Those earnings could easily lift the stock above 30.

While still enormous at $55 billion on June 30, Berkshire's equity portfolio isn't the dominant driver of its stock price the way it was 15 or 20 years ago. Mattering more are Berkshire's wholly owned businesses, including the Burlington Northern railroad, auto insurer Geico, several utilities and large property and casualty reinsurance operations.

Buffett doesn't disclose the performance of Berkshire's equity portfolio. We estimate that it's about flat this year, versus a 5% gain for the S&P 500 (through Wednesday), after rising about 17% in 2009, a year in which the S&P climbed 23%.

Buffett has done very well with some $21 billion of non-traded securities purchased during the financial crisis, including $5 billion of Goldman Sachs preferred stock and $3 billion of General Electric preferred, both with 10% dividend yields and warrants that, in the case of Goldman, now are worth about $2 billion. In April, Barron's speculated Goldman probably would seek to redeem that high-cost preferred. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Goldman is considering such a move.

Many pros believe that, after a disappointing decade, blue-chip stocks will be one of the best investments over the next 10 years. Investing in those with the Buffett imprimatur could be a great way to share in that wealth. •

Company/Ticker Shares 
(mil)
Price* Cost/ 
Share Mkt Val* 
(bil)
American Express /AXP 151.6 $39.55 $8.49 $6.00
BYD Co /1211.HK 225.0 7.10 1.03 1.60
Coca-Cola /KO 200.0 60.95 6.50 12.19
ConocoPhil lips/COP 29.1 60.57 72.68 1.76
J&J /JNJ 41.3 63.81 60.43 2.63
Kraft Foods /KFT 105.2 31.68 33.24 3.33
POSCO /005490.Korea 3.9 429.60 194.55 1.67
Procter & Gamble /PG 78.1 63.23 6.41 4.94
Sanofi-Aventis /SAN.Fr 25.1 69.66 80.73 1.75
Tesco /TSCO.UK 242.1 6.82 5.84 1.65
U.S. Bancorp /USB 69.0 22.77 30.94 1.57
Wal-Mart /WMT 39.0 53.75 48.49 2.10
Wells Fargo /WFC 320.1 24.38 22.12 7.80
*10/20/10Sources: Company Reports; Bloomberg
EMAILPRINTREPRINTS
Share:






0

阅读 评论 收藏 转载 喜欢 打印举报/Report
  • 评论加载中,请稍候...
发评论

    发评论

    以上网友发言只代表其个人观点,不代表新浪网的观点或立场。

      

    新浪BLOG意见反馈留言板 电话:4000520066 提示音后按1键(按当地市话标准计费) 欢迎批评指正

    新浪简介 | About Sina | 广告服务 | 联系我们 | 招聘信息 | 网站律师 | SINA English | 会员注册 | 产品答疑

    新浪公司 版权所有