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首部译作:CNN中国房地产将泡沫横行?

(2010-01-01 15:21:54)
标签:

中国房价

泡沫

财经

分类: 翻译作品

首部译作:CNN中国房地产将泡沫横行?

 

Will the China property bubble pop?

中国房地产将泡沫横行?

By Jaime FlorCruz, CNN Beijing Bureau Chief

December 30, 2009 4:09 a.m. EST

 

Beijing, China (CNN) -- When Crystal Zhang decided to buy a house last August, it seemed like a no-brainer.

中国北京(CNN)—— 去年八月份时,Crystal Zhang决定在北京买套房,这似乎是一件想都不用想的事。

 

For years, she had been spending a big chunk of her salary renting a studio apartment in Beijing, where she works as a mid-level executive in a multinational company. But her landlord kept hiking the rent, so she found a second-hand apartment and plunked 640,000 RMB (nearly US$100,000) as 52 percent down payment for a new home. She now lives in a cozy, one-bedroom flat and sets aside 25 percent of her monthly salary to pay for mortgage. "I hope to pay all up in five years," says Zhang. "By then I can start making some other investments."

多年来,在跨国公司从事中层管理的她,已经从工资里头支出了一大笔的钱用于在北京租房。但她的房东仍然不断地涨租金,因此她不得不另寻一处二手公寓并且为新家投入了人民币640,000元(相当于100,000美元)的重金作为百分之五十二的首付。现在她住上了舒适的单身公寓并且每个月扣除工资的百分之二十五来还房货。“我希望在五年之内还清,”张说,“到那时我就可以开始做其它的投资。”

 

Zhang, 30 and single, is one of the fortunate ones. The upwardly mobile professional has ample disposable income--and a good sense of timing. In just five months since she bought her 85-square-meter apartment, it has already appreciated by 38 percent. "I'm glad I bought this one when I could still afford it, even though its price was already high," she said. "Now the price is ridiculously high."

张,30岁且单身,是其中的一个幸运儿。上流社会的职业人拥有足够的可支配收入——以及对机遇的良好把握感。仅仅在五个月内,她买的85平米的公寓就已经增值了百分之三十八。“我很庆幸即便在房价已经很高的时候我还能够支付得起并且买下了它,”她说:“现在的房价是荒唐得高。”

 

In big cities like Beijing, the red-hot real estate market has seen prices raise more than 50 percent the past year -- six times the country's total economic growth rate. According to Shanghai Uwin, which tracks housing prices in China's richest city, average new apartment prices in the Pudong district soared by 57 percent to a record $4,061 per square meter, while overall prices in the city rose by 26 percent to $2,434.

在像北京一样的大城市里,红火的房地产市场已经出现比去年上涨了超过百分之五十的价格——是整个国民经济增长率的六倍。根据追踪了发达城市房价多年的上海Uwin的说法,浦东地区的新房平均每平米价格已经飙升了百分之五十七,创下了每平米4,061美元的价格,而这个城市的整体房价水平上升了二十六个百分点,即涨了2,434的美元。

 

Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley chief economist for Asia, believes that China's real estate and stock markets are a "bubble" that will burst when inflation accelerates in 2011. "China's asset markets are a Ponzi scheme," Xie told Bloomberg. "Property is heading for one huge bust that will take a year and a half to unfold."

前摩根士丹利亚洲首席经济学家谢安迪,相信中国的房地产和股票市场是一个泡沫,并且会在2011 年当通货膨胀加剧的时候发生崩溃。“中国的资产市场是一个庞氏骗局,”谢告诉Bloomberg“资产正在用一年半的时间呈现它正走向一个巨大的泡沫。”

 

Even some real estate developers are getting anxious. Zhang Xin, CEO of SOHO China, agrees that the soaring prices are unsustainable, breaking ranks with other real estate tycoons. "When one gets fat, you need to cut weight" she told Forbes recently. "But this is like you haven't started losing weight yet and food is coming again."

甚至连一些房地产开发商都变得焦急起来。中国SOHO的CEO张欣(音译),同意飙升的房价是不稳定的,打破了同其它地产大鳄的行列。“当别人开始长胖时,你就需要减肥了。”她最近告诉Forbes说:“但这就像你还没开始减肥,食物就又上来了。”

 

Other analysts also see a bubble, at least in terms of affordability. "Even Chinese government statistics point to real affordability problems, with the income-to-price ratio in Beijing hovering at 1:22, when the IMF and the UN say the ideal figure is 1:3 or 1:4," said Ashley Howlett, head of China construction practice for Jones Day. "The fact is that the average people cannot afford to buy apartments in Beijing or other major cities."

其它的分析家也同时看到了泡沫,至少在可支付能力范围内。“甚至连中国正府的统计数字也指出实际负担的能力问题,即北京的收入与房价的比值已经在1:22徘徊,而国际货币基金组织和联合国指出理想的比例值是1:3或1:4,”中国Jones Day施工管理负责人Ashley Howley说,“事实上是普通的大众无力支付北京以及其它主要城市的房价”

 

Not all analysts share Xie's dire prognosis. Real estate bosses, and some economists, think there is still room for growth, assuming that China's rapid urbanization will continue.

Mei Jianping, professor of finance at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, believes that, "under the current low interest rates, the bubble is unlikely to burst, unless we have another crisis like last year or inflation suddenly surge.

并不是所有的分析家都持有谢的悲观。房地产老板们和一些经济学家认为房地产仍然有上涨的空间,中国的快速城市化进程将继续。长江商学院的金融教授梅健平(音译)相信“在目前的低利率下,泡沫不像会爆破,除非像去年一样发生金融危机或者突然间爆发的通货膨胀”

 

"China is unique in the sense that there is nowhere for the middle class to put their money, low interest rates are low, equity markets are highly volatile, and corporate bond markets are small," Mei said. "So putting money in real estate is not all irrational."

“中国的一个特殊现象是中产阶级无处投资,现在利率是低的,股票市场高度不稳定,并且公司债券市场很小,”梅说,“所以投资房地产并不是不理性的。”

 

Irrational or not, many factors have created this exuberance in China's property market. Massive bank lending over the past year, part of Beijing's stimulus package, has found its way into real estate speculation. Low bank interest rates have encouraged other forms of investment and make mortgages cheap-prompting a mindset that "we might as well buy an apartment than leave the money in the bank". Fear of inflation also makes investment in real estate attractive. Limited investment options make buying a house a preferred choice. One poll conducted by Tencent website revealed that most of the 360,000 respondents agree that "happiness is closely related to owning a home."

是否理性,许多的因素已经创造了中国房地产市场的繁荣。在过去的一年中,根据北京的部分刺激方案,大规模的银行货款投资到房地产市场中。低利率的银行货款促使其它的投资形式和形成低价抵押的心态,即“我们不妨买套公寓总比把钱留在银行好。”对通货膨胀的担心也加强了对房地产投资的吸引力。有限的投资选项使得买房成了较佳的选择。腾讯网站的调查显示,360,000的反馈者中绝大多数同意“快乐与否与拥有一套住房息息相关”

 

If China is facing a bubble, will it end up like the U.S. did in 2008? Probably not, many experts say. Says Howlett: "The major difference between China and the US and the UK is the lack of 'sub-prime' lending and low gearing. There also remains a strong demand." Mei Jianping agrees: "The bubbles are all inflated during low interest rate environment. The difference is that China is still growing and interest rates are expected to stay low for a while due to slow recovery."

如果中国正在面对一个泡沫,是否会像美国在2008年那样的结束?许多专家认为也许不太可能。Howlett指出:“中国与美国和英国的主要区别是缺乏次级贷款和低负债。同时需要强劲的需求。”梅健平同意此观点:“泡沫都是在低利率的环境下膨胀的。不同的是中国仍然继续增长并且为了应付缓慢的恢复,仍然长期执行低利率政策。

 

Beijing cannot afford a collapse in the housing market as it is one of the pillars of China's economy. The property sector, analysts estimate, accounts for about a quarter of all fixed-asset investment in China and about 10% of national employment.

正因为北京是中国的经济支柱之一,因此它无力支撑房地产的倒塌。房地产市场分析人士估计房地产占中国的固定资产的四分之一并且提供了百分之十的就业。

 

"The main way a bursting of the real estate bubble would hurt China is if it causes a sharp drop in real estate development, and thus a sharp drop in employment and the business activities of industries that feed the real estate sector," Howlett said. Ashley thinks the government and the banks would probably continue to actively support the real estate sector to avoid such a scenario. "This is not an economy where price signals decide business decisions," he said.

“房地产泡沫爆破并且对中国产生损害的主要途径是如果它导致了房地产开发的急剧下降,并且因此使得就业的大幅下降和产业的商业活动全部用来填充地产界。”Howlett说。Ashley认为正府和银行为了避免该结果可能会持续积极地支持房地产界。“这不是价值信号决定商业的经济。”他说。

 

New home-owner Crystal Zhang remains optimistic of her investment. "The bubble won't burst," she said, citing measures that Beijing introduced recently to prevent a U.S.-style crash in home prices. "Whenever the bubble is about to burst, there will be measures taken to stop it."

现在房子的主人Crystal Zhang仍然对她的投资保持乐观。“泡沫不会爆破,”她引述了北京正在引进的措施防止出现美国式的房价崩溃。“不管什么时候泡沫即将爆破,总会有办法去阻止它的。”

 

PS:若有发现不妥之处,还望高人指出,在下感激不尽!

 


 

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