Chechen Peace Prospects Said to Dim in
Aftermath of Maskhadov Killing
Recent Chechen history has brought to prominence two
separatist leaders who have been fighting Russian forces for
about a decade.
One was Aslan Maskhadov, former elected president of Chechnya,
considered by many experts to be a moderate figure willing
to negotiate with Russia. The other is Shamil Basayev, a far more
radical leader, willing to use terrorist tactics to achieve
his goal of full independence from Russia. Last
month, Russian forces killed Mr. Maskhadov as he
was pinned down in a bunker north of Chechnya's capital,
Grozny.
Experts on the Chechen crisis say one cannot draw a
parallel between the two separatist leaders. Marshall
Goldman, from Harvard University, has been a
long-time observer of the Russian scene.
Marshall Goldman: The important thing about Maskhadov was
that he kept talking about the need to mediate, to work out
some kind of arrangement with the Russian government. His problem
was that he couldn't control everybody in Chechnya, so he could say
one thing, but then the Basayevs and others would act on their
own.
Experts say another difference between the two is that Mr.
Maskhadov has condemned terrorist acts while Mr. Basayev has
claimed responsibility for some of the worst acts of terrorism in
post-Soviet Russia. They included the seizure of a Moscow theater
in October 2002 and last September's raid on a school in Beslan,
North Ossetia where more than 330 people were killed, half of them
children. However Russian President Vladimir Putin considers both
men terrorists and his fight against Chechen separatists as part of
the international war on terrorism.
Yo'av Karny is a scholar who has written extensively on
Chechnya.
Yo'av Karny: To think of Maskhadov as an Osama bin
Laden character, hiding in the cares of
Chechnya, is truly laughable and, as it has been all along,
self-serving in terms of Russian rhetoric. Sometimes I
confess to not being sure whether the Russians pretend to think he
was a terrorist, or are convinced that he was and in either case,
that would suggest a certain detachment from reality on the part of
the Russians.
Analysts say another key difference between the two men is that
Mr. Maskhadov was willing to negotiate with Russian authorities
while Mr. Basayev rejected any notion of talks.
John Russell is an expert on Chechnya from Bradford University.
He says Mr. Maskhadov's death allows the Russian government to
continue its policy of refusing to talk with Chechen
separatists.
John Russell: What it does do, of course, is it allows
Putin to say to the international community: who is there left to
negotiate with? You may not agree that we have rubbed
out an international terrorist, but you must
agree that the only person left is an international terrorist,
Basayev. So that by elevating Maskhadov to the same degree of
diabolical international terrorism, they have actually
provided a scenario in which the international community
can't really insist that they [i.e., the Russians]
sit down and talk with the remaining elements of the Chechen
opposition.
Mr. Russell says given the current situation, there is no chance
of talks between the Russians and Chechen separatists.
John Russell: Maskhadov would have represented a body of
moderate opinion that would have settled for less than outright
Chechen independence. Basayev, I think, would not, and that's the
difference, in some ways. There would be no
obvious outcome of negotiations between the Russians and Basayev.
There could have been a positive outcome for all concerned, if
Maskhadov had survived to enter into negotiations.
Experts say the future for any peaceful solution to the Chechen
conflict is gloomy. They say Russian forces will continue to
hunt down Mr. Basayev. Analysts also say there is no doubt that he
will engage in more terrorist acts.
Yo'av Karny sees another outcome, now that Mr. Maskhadov is
dead.
Yo'av Karny: Disintegration of the independence
movement. We should expect some violent
spasms here and there, perhaps on a dramatic scale, perhaps
more terrorism. But the independence movement as an organized
entity is no longer. It cannot claim to speak on behalf of anyone
other than its own warlords.
Chechen separatists have named Abdul-Khalim Saidullayev, a local
religious leader, to succeed Aslan Maskhadov. Experts say very
little is known about Mr. Saidullayev but they all agree that he
neither has Aslan Maskhadov's stature nor his following.
For Focus, I’m Andre de Nesnera.
注释:
prominence [5prRminEns] n. 突出,明显的事物
separatist [5sepEreitist] n. 分离主义者,独立派
moderate [5mCdErit]
adj. 中立的,缓和的
radical [5rAdikEl]
adj. 激进的
pin down 镇压
parallel [5pArElel]
n. 平行线,平行面
mediate [5mi:djEt] v.
仲裁,调停
Osama bin Laden 奥萨马·本·拉登
rhetoric [5retErik]
n. 花言巧语
rub out 抹去,擦去,这里指消灭
diabolical [daiE5bClikEl] adj. 恶魔的
scenario [si5nB:riEu]
n. 特定的情节
gloomy [5^lu:mi] adj.
黑暗的,阴郁的,令人沮丧的
disintegration [dis7inti5^reiFEn] n. 瓦解
spasm [5spAzEm] n.
一阵发作,痉挛,这里指不断的冲突事件
warlord [5wC:lC:d] n.
军阀,军阀式首脑