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张五常博客

张五常教授的文章

制度主义时代

薛兆丰的个人网站,有很多参考书目,对入门人士尤佳

万科周刊

经济学爱好者的好去处

人大经济论坛

想找教科书的好去处

香港的经济学论坛

看看香港的学子怎么学习经济学的吧

经济与自由博客

两位美国教授的博客,还有采访的mp3下载

朱锡庆

很多关于日常生活的经济分析

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Divine intervention(2009-12-12 20:32)
Mark-to-market accounting 

Divine intervention
Jul 16th 2009 
From The Economist print edition


Accounting rules for financial firms are a mess. New proposals go some way to cleaning them up

Monsanto: sinner or saint(2009-11-27 21:55)
The world population is projected to reach 9 billion in 40 years, despite the drop in world fertility rates. Arable land is limited so crop yield enhancing is crucial to feed ever more mouths.

Companies that help boost crop yields are welcome. One such company is Monsanto, a chemical and agricultural company from the US that is notorious for inventing Agent Orange, a deadly chemical that caused body deformations to those victims of Vietnam war. However, it has helped raise America's average crop yield significantly above world average by its GM seeds and Roundup, a chemical weed killer.

The controversy is whether it is a sinner or a saint as the recent issue of The Economist debates.



秘笈一,自制投资表格

罗杰斯一直都记得1968年,当他开始在华尔街闯荡时,正是华尔街激情燃烧的岁月,股价常在一周内就翻了数倍。有一天,一个经纪人急急忙忙地来找他屋里的另一个分析师,他当时正在动手做一张金融总分析表格,经纪人就问他:“你做什么呢?”罗杰斯告诉对方自己的手头工作。此人不屑一顾地打击他说:“现在没人做这个。”

罗杰斯成名华尔街后,他的总分析表也广为流传。一开始,他的总分析表做得非常简单。罗杰斯会把利润率、净资产收益率,以及此前该公司的历史走势和状况列出来;随着年份增加,他会加入其他的数据,比如应收账款、库存等数据。从这些数字就可以看出这家公司的经营状况及走势。他的总分析表的时间跨度一般为10一15年,他认为这有利于自己用历史的眼光看待一家公司的发展。

 

Subprime mortgage might not be the smoking gun.

A recent paper shows that the deterioration in US subprime mortgage after 2004 could not explain the collapse of the subprime market. The paper demonstrated that the underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages had not weakened prior to the financial meltdown in 2008 as had been commonly believed. It is likely that the subprime mortgage was designed as 'bridge finance' to extend credit to borrowers to make quick gains from house price appreciation. Since 1995 and before 2006, house prices in the US had kept appreciating. During this period, subprime mortgage default rates were low as distressed borrowers could prepay either by refinance or by sale. However, once the house price failed to appreciate in 2006, subsequent subprime mortgage borrowers were in trouble making payments and default rates spiked. 
RMB to become a global currency?

News had it that RMB is to become the global currency, with all the likelihood that it would replace the USD in the near future. Is this possible? 

China is certainly motivated to depend less on the dollar. Sitting on a pile of the US currency, China is anxious to have the Fed behave in a responsible manner. The recent spike in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds kept China's central bankers awake at night. Depreciation of the green buck would mean all the hard-earned savings would be eroded by inflation. Nothing would suit China better than have the savings measured on its terms.

Currency serves three purposes: as unit of measure, as medium of exchange and store of value. And the significance of a currency depends on the strength of the economy it represents. No wonder US dollar dominated the world. Now times have changed. The US economy has been hit hard
Green Dam and HKU's mainland recruitment interview

The Green Dam saga has also entered University of Hong Kong's (HKU) recruitment interview question list. The question list challenges the mainland candidate to jump out of their mental box and also demonstrates how Hong Kong's tertiary education values individual thinking and creativity.

In June, potential mainland candidates were invited by HKU's recruitment teachers to attend interviews, during which they were asked to expressed their views on subjects ranging from Michael Jackson to Green Dam. Some were apparently caught off guard. Michael Jackson's passing was indeed a hit but his personality and influence was less illuminated than his songs among the young. Also less discussed is the news that the Green Dam is going to be installed on all new PCs shipped after July 1. 

As I was among the first few who went to study at a Hong Kong unive
Green Dam Youth Escort(2009-07-04 23:56)
Green Dam Youth Escort

In early June, 2009, Beijing ordered all personal computer (PC) makers to install a filtering software by July 1. The deadline was almost missed by all. Facing criticism from both domestic netizens and foreign PC makers, Beijing decided to postpone the deadline to an unspecified date. 

The software, called Green Dam Youth Escort (Green Dam), has already been widely installed on PCs in internet bars and other public places. The initiative was well-intended: it intends to protect the young from harmful sites that contain pornography. But the mandate to install it on all PCs was surprising.

Domestic netizens voiced their discontent over chartrooms and BBS's. Some have found security defects in the software that might potentially invite hackers. Some have cracked the software and decoded the list of websites and sensitive words that the software is designed to filter, whi
It seems that not all of the problems had an origin in monetary policy. Look at General Motors, which is mired in over-promising labor welfare and is on the verge of bankruptcy. What a mess!

But paying off its souring obligations with printed money is what the US Fed is doing. If money flows more than the goods and services they represent, money gets cheap. And obligations are no more than a promise to future goods and services. Now that the extra money cancels the promise, the net effect is that the money remains and that a bit of good or service disappears. Yes, that's where inflation creeps in. 

But central banks worldwide have a case for printing money. The problem got out of hand because consumers and businesses borrowed too much. They leveraged themselves up too much such that they could not meet their obligations facing the slightest of turbulences. As one with a bit of financial sense would know, leveraging up
CFA一级考试(2009-06-07 22:29)

今天参加了CFA一级考试。之前没怎么复习,很多题目都是面熟而答案模棱两可。所以很多事后使用了排除法来选择答案,不算偷鸡吧。虽然之前做过经济金融类的讲师,教过相关的课程,但考试的时候还是有一些捉襟现肘。对一些知识点没有切身的体会,这是一个弱点。很多知识,在大脑中暂住过,然后走了,就像萍水相逢的路人,而非一个朋友。熟悉的知识点,就像一位老友,方方面面都清楚,都了解,不仅了解过去,也能预测其发展状况。知识点,也像人一样,需要全方位了解,把它放在一个相关的背景中,有一段故事,有一个教训,才能使其立体化。就像通过此次金融危机,大家多多少少都对信用违约掉期(CDS)有所认识一样。知识是朋友,朋友也是知识,不是吗?

今天也是高考的第一天,同时也是我参加高考的10周年。当年的考试整得我身心疲惫,此次考试心态还不错,说明终于从高考的阴影中走了出来,虽然时间有点长。这也说明高考摧残之深。高考后5年内的噩梦主题都是围绕高考展开,除去那些看恐怖片的晚上。此次考试在体育馆举行,现场有近1000人,场面恢宏。还好,我还能在考前1小时内小睡。心理这关终于过了。然而生理上而言,却背疼、脖子疼、颈部疼。考试折磨仍然在,只

Credit Default Swap(2009-05-10 21:15)
Everybody seems to know that credit default swap (CDS) is one of the culprits of the financial crisis of late. It is also known that CDS works like an insurance against someone's default and it trades in the notional amount of $60 trillion without regulation. The US government is talking about bring CDS to exchanges to have it monitored. But questions remain: What is a CDS? Why do we need a CDS? How does it work? What problem does it cause? How did it trigger the crisis? Why need it be regulated and how?